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View Poll Results: Do you support the lockdown extension?
Yes 299 47.46%
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Old 21st May 2020, 13:53   #2101
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

I think as the days pass, its becoming clear to the administration that community spread is rampant and there is nothing they can do about it. The only saving grace is that the severity in the sub-continent is very low.

We have now started opening up train travel as well. I guess unrestricted travel will be allowed asking people to self quarantine and it will become almost impossible to track and trace given our limited manpower.
https://news.rediff.com/commentary/2...935f4a5095482b


Soon, the govt. will claim they did a great job in flattening the curve with the lockdown and then open up the remaining malls, schools, etc. If any of the companies get their hands on the stimulus package, good for them. The rest will just wind up.

Last edited by m8002? : 21st May 2020 at 13:55. Reason: added a link
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Old 21st May 2020, 14:11   #2102
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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I think as the days pass, its becoming clear to the administration that community spread is rampant and there is nothing they can do about it. The only saving grace is that the severity in the sub-continent is very low.
Thanks goodness for that realization. It was evident at the end of Lockdown1.0 that community transmission has been going on and that's why new symptomatic cases popping up even after 21 days of lockdown.

I am 100% confident that the virus has been going around the world from January onwards when our border were all open. The asymptomic carriers had spread it to Indian population everywhere till March end (otherwise how does one explain migrant laborers with Covid?).

The graphs were solely based on (limited) tests that were being done and therefore had zero correlation with actual infections spreading in India.

The Govt, at any stage of time, cannot give a message that "everything is NOT under our control, because we have no clue about this phenomenon" therefore a pretense of something important being done has to be maintained (hey its not all that different from corporate world!)
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Old 21st May 2020, 14:25   #2103
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by vivek95 View Post
I know I am positive, but just that I can't get myself tested
Is this a prognosis or a gut feeling?

If the system is so overwhelmed that even a frontline medic has no access to testing, what could the aam junta expect!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aditya_Bhp View Post
This may be true in Mumbai and other hotspots where there's rampant community transmission. But then if we look at smaller states, contact tracing is still taking place and is ensuring proper quarantining and testing.
Contact tracing and tracking is becoming harder by the day. A doctor posted in a rural PHC tested positive in my place recently; the list of his primary contacts is itself said to be 800 people long. What can the government do here?

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The villages are not equipped to handle this disease. We should not let this enter rural India.
But for the institutional quarantining of returnee migrants at taluq headquarters, Corona would have already wreaked havoc in the villages. That said, even the largest reservoir has a limit to the amount of water it can take in. Once the capacity is breached, there is bound to be a breach.

Its now just a matter of when and not if Corona will invade our homes.

Last edited by dailydriver : 21st May 2020 at 14:47.
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Old 21st May 2020, 14:29   #2104
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by vivek95 View Post
This is true and I had shared this too. Doctors in Mumbai are not tested anymore, I know I am positive, but just that I can't get myself tested.
Hang in there. Hopefully, this pandemic will have an end, till then stay strong.

Quote:
Originally Posted by vivek95 View Post
The bug is everywhere, contact tracing has no meaning. This hype, fear and panic has to wane off here onwards.
This may be true in Mumbai and other hotspots where there's rampant community transmission. But then if we look at smaller states, contact tracing is still taking place and is ensuring proper quarantining and testing. The central govt should protect these states and allow maximum production of essentials like masks and PPEs. The smaller states should step up and assist the people of worst affected states.


There should be fear among the people. Otherwise, people will roam around freely and spread the infection. The villages are not equipped to handle this disease. We should not let this enter rural India.
Even on Team-BHP, there are threads that are promoting 'Drives' post lockdown. Leisure travel should strictly be avoided till the situation is under control. Only Essential travel should be encouraged in the next few months.
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Old 21st May 2020, 14:35   #2105
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

When reading some of the historical texts of ancient India, I had read about how villages would treat anyone going "out" and returning with great suspicion. The act of venturing out to foreign lands was looked down upon!

Their fear, apparently, was that these folks could bring along some "foreign infection / disease" that could potentially wipe out the village / tribe / population.

All of it did not make much sense to me then, but as I see the fear surrounding this covid, it makes better sense now!

Last edited by Miyata : 21st May 2020 at 14:40.
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Old 21st May 2020, 16:39   #2106
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

A number of people seem to think that the way forward is to shrug off the last couple of months, mutter "what to do," and get out there.

I don't know if that is just admitting defeat or the right thing to do. Either way, the hardships of lockdown are in severe danger of being completely wasted.
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Old 21st May 2020, 17:26   #2107
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

I went to school today to collect school books, uniforms and pay the fees for my children. The roads are crowded - I took 3 to 4 minutes just to take the car out of my lane and onto the main road.

Even though everything seems like it has come back to normal, here are some points I noted:

1. Everybody wearing masks, even people driving vehicles and their passengers
2. Social distancing in several waiting areas of the school
3. Supermarkets following social distancing (they let one person in only after another has exited to ensure that there is no over-crowding)
4. State Transport buses (KSRTCs) and their overtaking back on track

Last edited by vb-san : 22nd May 2020 at 13:15. Reason: The last line removed, to avoid off-topic discussions. Thank you!
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Old 21st May 2020, 23:26   #2108
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

How Fear, Groupthink Drove Unnecessary Global Lockdowns

Quote:
Academics used faulty information to build faulty models. Leaders relied on these faulty models. Dissenting views were suppressed. The media flamed fears and the world panicked.

That is the story of what may eventually be known as one of the biggest medical and economic blunders of all time

the virus is now known to have an infection fatality rate for most people under 65 that is no more dangerous than driving 13 to 101 miles per day. Even by conservative estimates, the odds of COVID-19 death are roughly in line with existing baseline odds of dying in any given year.
India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020-picture1.png
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China concealed the extent of the viral outbreak, which, if you believed its data, led many scientists to believe that 2% to 5% of all infected patients would die. This turned out to be off by a factor of 10, but academic epidemiologists have a history of wildly-off-the-mark doomsday predictions.

A much more rational strategy would have been to lock down nursing homes and let young healthy people out to build immunity. Instead we did the opposite, we forced nursing homes to take COVID-19 patients and locked down young people.
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Old 21st May 2020, 23:39   #2109
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Hi, I need some help/info regarding this. So me and my family of 3 need to head to Palakkad in Kerala from Hyderabad. But since the route is through multiple states, it's highly confusing as to the process of applying for e-pass.

We are driving down which means we'll have to stop over in Bengaluru or Hosur for the night. Would that entail any other pass or some kind of proof that we are not infected by Covid?

Any info would be very helpful.
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Old 21st May 2020, 23:45   #2110
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by Miyata View Post
Thanks for this. Much needed.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Thad E Ginathom View Post
... the hardships of lockdown are in severe danger of being completely wasted.
As a countermeasure to this virus, the lockdown was / is the hardship that we neither needed, nor could afford. That is the reality that both governments and people are slowly waking up to.
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Old 22nd May 2020, 00:39   #2111
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by mohansrides View Post
As a countermeasure to this virus, the lockdown was / is the hardship that we neither needed, nor could afford. That is the reality that both governments and people are slowly waking up to.
I believe where we live matters. Lockdown in Kerala was strict. Police were vigilant and the government restricted the movement of citizens, especially those quarantined. People adhered to the government instructions and those few who did not, were punished. People suffered both financially and mentally, but then no one was allowed to starve because life mattered more than money in the state. And slowly, the curve was flattened, active cases fell to 15 by the end of 2nd lockdown. Do note, Kerala did not have any special treatment, all it did differently was ensured full lockdown and tested people, quarantine them and prevented spread of the infection.

Now, everything is slowly coming back to normal and people can live without fear. Business are picking up and people are earning. Migrant labourers have now started working too.

Ofcourse cases are rising, but they are all people coming from outside the state and they are being quarantined properly, so rest of the people do not come into contact and can work without fear.

Think of a fruit, initially its sour, and once it ripens, it turns sweet. Lockdown is just like that.

Last edited by Aditya_Bhp : 22nd May 2020 at 00:41.
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Old 22nd May 2020, 01:42   #2112
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by Miyata View Post
Quote:
the virus is now known to have an infection fatality rate for most people under 65 that is no more dangerous than driving 13 to 101 miles per day.
Now I am scared of driving 12 or 102 miles.
Quote:
Even by conservative estimates, the odds of COVID-19 death are roughly in line with existing baseline odds of dying in any given year.
This doesn't add up, because it hasn't been added up. What these arguments always miss is that all the other risks and reasons for dying are still there.

Sorry, but you haven't made me feel better, or safer.
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Old 22nd May 2020, 06:09   #2113
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by Aditya_Bhp View Post
Think of a fruit, initially its sour, and once it ripens, it turns sweet. Lockdown is just like that.
Good point! Lock-down measures should have (or could have) helped as an opportunity to put possible control measures in place. Once control measures are in place things has to return to normalcy, the population will need to align to the fact that they and virus will have to co-exist, until a vaccination is out. Dengue still exists, it does kill people, but we do take proper measures to ensure that we donít have mosquito breeding centers at our homes or locality.

And people can do their bit. If they are unwell Ė say have flu or even runny nose, donít step out of the house if possible; if they really need to step out with a cold, wear a mask at least. Maybe this is the time to enhance our social responsibility etiquettes.
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Old 22nd May 2020, 10:10   #2114
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by Aditya_Bhp View Post
Think of a fruit, initially its sour, and once it ripens, it turns sweet. Lockdown is just like that.
I'll add to your analogy, but from the view of economics and business.

During lockdown : raw and sour acidic fruit

During lockdown easing : sweeter and edible fruit

Post lockdown : rotting, stench filled highly inedible fruit

Do not for a moment think that we're in the clear after 31st May, we won't be, it'll be the start of a recession, either severe or medium level, the world will face unemployment, lack of demand of both goods and services and abject misery for a year if not much more. Small to medium businesses will be at the mercy of large corporations like FB, Amazon, Jio etc, which is already starting, expenses will be more than ever and in return we'll get lesser than ever.

We aren't getting out unscathed, one pair of limbs will get blown off either way.
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Old 22nd May 2020, 10:27   #2115
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by Thad E Ginathom View Post
Sorry, but you haven't made me feel better, or safer.
The situation with pretty much all of us - we don't feel any better or safer!

That's the thing with science, healthcare, medicine, etc - there are more grey areas than black-and-white. Pretty much any narrative will find support using data and good statistics.

It comes down to us to evaluate them in our own contexts and decide on the best approach to adopt while managing the risks (can never eliminate them)!

The CDC seems to now be giving out some updated guidelines on the nature of the nCov transmission -

Quote:
The CDC says transmission through surfaces is less of a threat, as SARS-CoV-2 is primarily spread from person to person via respiratory droplets.
From my reading and analysis, this has always been the underlying understanding. Those that can afford to remain "isolated" and insulated, it might be best to continue doing so. Others certainly have to start stepping out in measured ways with appropriate safety and precautionary protocols in place.
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