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View Poll Results: Do you support the lockdown extension?
Yes 299 47.46%
No 244 38.73%
I'm unsure 87 13.81%
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Old 22nd May 2020, 10:38   #2116
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by vb-san View Post

And people can do their bit. If they are unwell Ė say have flu or even runny nose, donít step out of the house if possible; if they really need to step out with a cold, wear a mask at least. Maybe this is the time to enhance our social responsibility etiquettes.
But that's the problem. By locking up people for so many days, they are forced to come out now to earn. How many days and who can afford to permanently stay indoor?

That's why countries see a spike when lockdown is lifted. We should have lifted at the end of lockdown 1.0, the spike was lesser. By not opening up quickly enough we are delaying the spike which is more dangerous.

An another stricter lockdown seems imminent now. The government has to share their graded response if they have made any in these last 60 odd days. Suddenly you cannot wake up in the morning and say we will start/stop this or that. Unfortunately currently it very well seems like that.
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Old 22nd May 2020, 11:39   #2117
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

I did a round trip in my car to my other apartment last week, partly because there was electrical safety risk I needed to address as apartment was suddenly un-occupied when Lockdown 1.0 was declared. This included crossing two district borders and heading to Powai in Mumbai and then back (took epass for my car from MH website, covid medical certificate, aadhar and address proof).

I can confirm that the police force is totally exhausted and are not even bothered with normal cars anymore. I felt sorry for them working non-stop for last 2 months without a break in this unforgiving weather. Out of the 8 check posts I encountered, 6 of them were un-manned in the middle of the day. There seems to be severe personnel shortage, and hence the measures like 7pm-7am curfew and fixed timings of shopping etc. Maybe there always was, and they used social media messages in their favor. And people have slowly started to realize this, where social distancing is going for a toss since this week.

In hindsight, lockdown 1.0 was needed due to an unknown threat, and maybe just for the fact that the 'new normal' of daily life needed to be imbibed into everyone's life. Heard of the phrase '21 days to form a new habit'?

Last edited by TheCatalyst : 22nd May 2020 at 12:00.
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Old 22nd May 2020, 11:47   #2118
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by TwinAlco View Post
An another stricter lockdown seems imminent now. The government has to share their graded response if they have made any in these last 60 odd days. Suddenly you cannot wake up in the morning and say we will start/stop this or that. Unfortunately currently it very well seems like that.
In my view, there will be no more stricter lockdown now , but just the relaxed version of lockdowns we are having recently.

The government knows the only way out now is Herd Immunity.

The Virus isn't going to go away on its own. Its not following any pattern or mathematical model. It is resistant to heat and humidity.

Herd immunity is the only solution and government knows it now i think.
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Old 22nd May 2020, 12:00   #2119
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by dark.knight View Post
I'll add to your analogy, but from the view of economics and business.

Do not for a moment think that we're in the clear after 31st May, we won't be, it'll be the start of a recession, either severe or medium level, the world will face unemployment, lack of demand of both goods and services and abject misery for a year if not much more. Small to medium businesses will be at the mercy of large corporations like FB, Amazon, Jio etc, which is already starting, expenses will be more than ever and in return we'll get lesser than ever.
Money making should be the last priority now. Protecting lives matter more. We shouldn't run businesses at the cost of human life. Besides, businesses can be revived, but you can't bring a person out of his death.

No, post 31st, this is not going to end. This is the new normal. We should be ready to accept it. Until a vaccine comes up or the virus mutates to a weak one, this is how we should live. Lockdowns and quarantine will be part of our life till then.


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Originally Posted by DCEite View Post
Herd immunity is the only solution and government knows it now i think.
Herd immunity is dangerous. The virus should infect 2/3rds of the population for herd immunity. We should be ready to sacrifice humans for this. Many will die in the course of attaining herd immunity.

Last edited by Aditya_Bhp : 22nd May 2020 at 12:05.
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Old 22nd May 2020, 12:38   #2120
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Interesting how in a majority of cases, when an individual was found to be Covid positive, he was forced into isolation and subjected to treatment protocols not so much for his own protection as for the safety of the people around him.

One could be assured of this when people were all locked up.

Now, with getting infected becoming almost a given, the focus must shift from containment to treatment - preventive, therapeutic and curative.

Testing, tracing and tracking of cases will be futile and counterproductive: eating up valuable manpower and mis-chanelling financial and infrastructural resources.

The definition of Normal Life is bound to change now and unless one has the luxury of sitting at home and waiting out for the virus to tire itself (an unlikely scenario), it is wise to prep ourselves to accept and adapt to the new normal - in the post Covidian world.

Even with the highest regard for life and humanity, an entire nation cannot be held hostage indefinitely.

Wait! am I not afraid of death then?

I most certainly am.

But my likelihood of dying from Covid19 is, at an individual level, not higher or lower than the probability of me kicking the bucket due to a road accident, natural calamity or roadside robbery gone wrong.

I know that the virus is out there: that it will enter my system and neutralize my immune system if I am not careful enough: that when combined with other bodily ailments, the virus might as well be the cause of my death.

But I also know that if I remain alert, follow certain best practices and eschew a few non-urgent comforts, I am likely to be alive and outside of Covid specific hospitals.

We must never forget the fact that the virus targets and weakens an individual's immunity and not that of the nation. Ergo, the counterattack too should be at the same level of operation.

That said, the bitter reality of the imbalance in the federal structure of our nation had perhaps never ever been so apparent. The centre took charge at a time when things were in control, played around with our lives and when the ramparts of the flimsy fortifications are in ruins, is asking the states to take steps necessary to restore order and normalcy.

A popular Kannada proverb talks of how fools try to target a buffalo when it is the ox that is sick:
Quote:
ಎತ್ತಿಗೆ ಜ್ವರ ಬಂದರೆ ಎಮ್ಮೆಗೆ ಬರೆ ಎಳೆದಂತೆ
Somehow, I can't help feeling that we have been doing exactly that.

Last edited by dailydriver : 22nd May 2020 at 12:41.
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Old 22nd May 2020, 12:57   #2121
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by Aditya_Bhp View Post
Herd immunity is dangerous. The virus should infect 2/3rds of the population for herd immunity. We should be ready to sacrifice humans for this. Many will die in the course of attaining herd immunity.
There is no other alternative. Until sufficient percentage of population gets the virus and recovers, the spread canít be stopped. Places or countries that believe they have stopped it would inevitably get more infections once people start moving around. It is only a matter of time as the authorities and the populace will get careless. All you need is a few cases to come in and the cycle will restart. When we advocate herd immunity, it doesnít mean we are voluntarily accepting a certain number of deaths. This is an inevitable fact just like we accept the casualties from a hurricane or any other natural calamity. You try to lessen the impact but nature has its way. In many places like NYC, Spain and now England, it has been found that a substantial portion of their population already has contracted this virus. Spain gave figures of 11 to 15% for Madrid and other epicenters and yesterday the British government announced that 17% of people in London have contracted it. That is why their numbers are now starting to decline. There is no other way, unfortunately.Here is a link to the study:
https://inews.co.uk/news/health/coro...avirus-2861250
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Old 22nd May 2020, 12:58   #2122
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by poloman View Post
Doctor, if this is the situation medical fraternity should start a campaign to educate the general public. Untouchability is creeping in back after a century in many societies. Despite lifting of 90% lockdown business is still dull. People are not stepping out of their homes.

Even today on TV some experts were showing how virus can spread in a restaurant using
some form of ridiculous dye. Why confuse and further scare people if the reality is different?
Contrarian doctors like me are few. It's not that we are taking this disease very lightly but just that some of us are against the stigmatization, irrational stricter lockdowns, apathy towards critical non-covid patients and such consequences arising due to extreme fear about this disease. This is not the first pandemic and certainly not the only disease we should focus on. I am waiting for crazy Mumbai monsoons and the rise of Dengue, Malaria, Leptospirosis cases. Hopefully the 2000 beds getting ready at BKC, Mumbai will try to address the uneven distribution of covid vs non covid. Besides, I am a junior doctor, just fresh from post graduation, so not many will pay heed to me, but that's okay, my time will come one day. Nevertheless, I do my job of allaying fear in patients and their relatives. Also, ask my security staff not to run away from a positive patient. I am doing my small bit and I feel happy when I see some rational guidelines coming up from the Govt. of late, some of them that I had opined and expressed to my friends two months back.


Quote:
Originally Posted by dailydriver View Post
Is this a prognosis or a gut feeling?

If the system is so overwhelmed that even a frontline medic has no access to testing, what could the aam junta expect!

.
This is my gut feeling to be honest. Going by some events that happened around and applying a certain logic, I feel I am positive. But honestly, I have no symptoms, not even one, by God's grace and my parents' blessings. I am basically a high risk contact and that's not a surprise. I know of some doctors in the circle whose minor symptoms were brushed off and samples rejected for testing. Aam junta still has a greater chance to get tested than Doctors, don't worry Given the current situation in Mumbai, Govt. cannot afford to isolate frontline doctors. And we have some science and social cause to back this up, so I am absolutely fine with not getting tested, especially when I don't have any symptoms. Just being a direct "contact" is now a silly criteria, atleast in Mumbai.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Aditya_Bhp View Post
Hang in there. Hopefully, this pandemic will have an end, till then stay strong.
Thanks for the encouragement. I remember reading the first line in Microbiology in 2nd year MBBS - " We live in a sea of microorganisms ". So, I think we can take some precautions and learn to swim across this sea.

Regarding contact tracing, you make a point but now that there is a guideline and we are discharging positive patients home, what with the contact tracing. Govt. should not waste manpower and time on contradictory exercises.
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Old 22nd May 2020, 13:29   #2123
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by DCEite View Post
Herd immunity is the only solution and government knows it now i think.
Cross posting from the Coronavirus Thread

https://www.team-bhp.com/forum/shift...ml#post4809444 (The Coronavirus Thread)

Sweden is still nowhere near 'herd immunity,' even though it didn't go into lockdown
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Old 22nd May 2020, 13:32   #2124
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by Miyata View Post
The CDC seems to now be giving out some updated guidelines on the nature of the nCov transmission -

The CDC says transmission through surfaces is less of a threat, as SARS-CoV-2 is primarily spread from person to person via respiratory droplets.
Thanks for this update. This actually makes me feel safer.

At home or office, it is easier to maintain physical distancing, but surface transmission is more difficult to avoid.
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Old 22nd May 2020, 13:55   #2125
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by vivek95 View Post
Regarding contact tracing, you make a point but now that there is a guideline and we are discharging positive patients home, what with the contact tracing. Govt. should not waste manpower and time on contradictory exercises.
The new ICMR guidelines have been ignored by many states. Kerala doesn't follow the new one. Will be testing the patients till 2 negative samples on consecutive days and only then discharging the patient. Recoveries will be slow here but then it ensures proper isolation of patients. And yes, contact tracing and quarantining is still being done here, and it's quite effective, thanks to an effective ground level team of Asha workers and Health inspectors.

Last edited by Chetan_Rao : 22nd May 2020 at 15:07. Reason: Typos
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Old 22nd May 2020, 15:02   #2126
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by vivek95 View Post
...and the rise of Dengue, Malaria, Leptospirosis
...
I feel I am positive. But honestly, I have no symptoms, not even one, by God's grace and my parents' blessings. I am basically a high risk contact and that's not a surprise.
What we need is a Covid-19 style ticker for everything now and hope the world will keep track of every country - I would state for example Malaria - number of cases, number treated, number of deaths, number of recovered and percentages. Same with potholes
Quote:
Originally Posted by vivek95 View Post
...
I feel I am positive. But honestly, I have no symptoms, not even one, by God's grace and my parents' blessings. I am basically a high risk contact and that's not a surprise.
You are one of the lucky ones! Asymptomatic. But as you are being as careful as you can, nothing else you can do!
All the best, and I hope your experiences will make you a better person, a better doctor, and hopefully, when the time comes make the needed changes to the system.
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Old 22nd May 2020, 18:58   #2127
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

This is yet another tragic incident due to the lockdown-

https://www.news18.com/news/buzz/vid...s-2631829.html
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Old 22nd May 2020, 20:57   #2128
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by Nalin1 View Post
This is yet another tragic incident due to the lockdown-
Please do not blame everything bad that happens during lockdown, even the things that could not have happened without lockdown, on lockdown. It is not logical, it is not thinking straight.

There is lockdown. There is government/authority's lack of care for thousands of people that they should have taken care of from the beginning. They are not the same thing.

This is not about lockdown or no lockdown, or lockdown good or bad: it is about getting the responsibilities assigned to the right things/people.
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Old 22nd May 2020, 22:43   #2129
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by Miyata View Post
The CDC says transmission through surfaces is less of a threat, as SARS-CoV-2 is primarily spread from person to person via respiratory droplets.
That is a typical virus behavior. Covid-19 is no different.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aditya_Bhp View Post
Herd immunity is dangerous. The virus should infect 2/3rds of the population for herd immunity. We should be ready to sacrifice humans for this. Many will die in the course of attaining herd immunity.
That is true on herd immunity. But sacrifice is a big word. Considering 2/3 for herd immunity, for Bangalore with 1 crore population, 65 lakhs of the population must have recovered from covid-19. If 20% of these folks required medical attention, that number is 13 lakhs. Bangalore cannot handle 13 lakhs sick folks around the same time. Hence herd immunity takes time.
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Originally Posted by Miyata View Post
When reading some of the historical texts of ancient India, I had read about how villages would treat anyone going "out" and returning with great suspicion. The act of venturing out to foreign lands was looked down upon!
What suspicion? For ages, people have ventured out of their villages & nothing happened. Which historical texts mention these?
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Originally Posted by Thad E Ginathom View Post
Either way, the hardships of lockdown are in severe danger of being completely wasted.
If India keeps the count of dead low, then lockdown would have done its purpose, either in the manner intended by Niti Aayog (modern planning commission) or not.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Miyata View Post
Lockdown means different things to different countries.

In China, only Wuhan was locked down. This meant sealing of all homes. Nobody would come out of their homes without breaking the seal. Grocery & food items were delivered to the homes. Shanghai & Beijing were under quarantine.

In India, lockdown meant walking to the nearest grocery & buying essentials.

In a few countries, lockdown means practicing social distancing and all shops would be open.

So the definition of lockdown is broad. This is the lockdown graph doing rounds:
Name:  WhatsApp Image 20200522 at 9.36.58 AM.jpeg
Views: 754
Size:  21.7 KB
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Old 23rd May 2020, 02:02   #2130
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Few stats talking/saying about the effectiveness of lockdown:

India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020-img_20200523_014958.jpg

Source: PIB
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