[Aditya_Bhp]

Originally Posted by v1p3r

Except on this thread, where the person commenting directly after you is a doctor on 'the frontlines' in India's covid 'hotspot' of Mumbai.

And the person you are quoting is a doctor, but unlike Mumbai, people here stayed at home, and broke the chain of spread, and a successful lockdown also ensured that I 'unluckily' wasn't able to work on 'the frontlines' in a Covid 'hotspot"


PS: For those advocating herd immunity --https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...anders-tegnell

[Thad E Ginathom]

Originally Posted by Miyata

Meanwhile, we have this analysis / retrospection - "Epidemiologist Who Triggered Worldwide Lockdowns Admits: Without Instituting Full Lockdown, Sweden Essentially Getting Same Effect"

Meanwhile, we also have Architect of Sweden's coronavirus strategy admits too many died

Sweden’s chief epidemiologist and the architect of its light-touch approach to the coronavirus has acknowledged that the country has had too many deaths from Covid-19 and should have done more to curb the spread of the virus.

Anders Tegnell, who has previously criticised other countries’ strict lockdowns as not sustainable in the long run, told Swedish Radio on Wednesday that there was “quite obviously a potential for improvement in what we have done” in Sweden.

Asked whether too many people in Sweden had died, he replied: “Yes, absolutely,” adding that the country would have to consider in the future whether there had been a way of preventing such a high toll. ... ... ...

“If we were to encounter the same disease again knowing exactly what we know about it today, I think we would settle on doing something in between what Sweden did and what the rest of the world has done”

Originally Posted by momsonlydriver

I think India will also develop immunity just as the way Sweden has been going through. Wouldn't it be great if everyone is getting immune to it? Mild symptoms shall go away over time and people showing serious symptoms must be hospitalized?

See above. And nobody knows about immunity yet.

Of course it would be great if we all got immune to it. But this is personal dreams. Mine is that it will somehow wear itself out: I have no scientific basis for that one either. We are entitled to our hopes and dreams, and we had better not give them up, but nor are they are good basis for the future.

[poloman]

The tragedy of a medicine becoming a political football. We all thought medicine as a field is not affected by the ongoing politicization of everything. If Lancet is also a party to this I have nothing more to add.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...-be-unraveling
https://www.indiatoday.in/science/st...889-2020-06-03

[v1p3r]

Originally Posted by Aditya_Bhp

And the person you are quoting is a doctor, but unlike Mumbai, people here stayed at home, and broke the chain of spread, and a successful lockdown also ensured that I 'unluckily' wasn't able to work on 'the frontlines' in a Covid 'hotspot"

Congratulations on being in a progressive state that has good social and medical infrastructure. Being from Kerala and having lived there, I am aware of how things work. I think it is highly unlikely that anywhere in Kerala has 42% of its population, living in slums where isolation is impossible, and daily wagers with no savings will starve without help and / or employment. That is the sad reality that Mumbai lives with.

No one is advocating herd immunity. My original point still stands. Please do not assume most people on this thread have no idea what they're talking about.

PS. Not sure why you think you're 'unlucky'.

[Fordlover88]

Originally Posted by momsonlydriver

In Kolkata people are leading a normal life now. It's really strange to see people everywhere in the open. I'm particularly not used to seeing such a huge crowd. From 8th June more of the things are gonna be open.

Our office resumed today with 100% attendance. Traffic has increased manifold compared to pre covid area as most people are preferring personal vehicles. Public transport is increasing daily and social distancing is hardly maintained.I guess amphan has made us forget corona somewhat. Let's brace ourselves for tough times as cases are bound to increase at more alarming rate now onwards.

[Miyata]

Originally Posted by Thad E Ginathom

Meanwhile, we also have Architect of Sweden's coronavirus strategy admits too many died

Haha. I did read that and wanted to put it as an addendum to my post with some thought - but the edit window expired by the time I could act on it!

Nice of him to accept that he could have done better and possibly something in between the Sweden model and the model adopted by much of rest of the world. Not too many people we come across, particularly in positions of authority, that are willing to admit their short-comings.

The thought I wanted to add - By many accounts we might be at the intermission stage of this whole covid movie [All the world's a stage and all that...]. Most of the countries (like India) seem to continue to react in haste without much thought - closing down in haste without planning; opening up in haste and winging it as we go along. Much of this opening up is more a reaction to growing anxiety and unrest of the people (might also explain the China/India border stand-off as a distraction to buy emotional solidarity, just a thought). In the process of this hasty (rather unplanned and chaotic) re-opening, there is bound to be uncontrolled spread and "unaccounted for" deaths.

Sweden, on the other hand, is better placed to deal with intelligent planning - even while it's economy has actually grown better in the first quarter of this year.

So, when the movie does finally come its logical climax - most likely in another 3 months or so - most of us would be clamoring for better support and looking for inquiries into this whole mess of covid-situation-handling while Sweden would still be doing alright.

Furthermore, what Sweden model brought out - of the 4000 odd that have so far died due to covid, the 4000 have been 60-yrs+ and that odd is few hundreds (less than 60-yrs). Meaning, the most vulnerable ought to have certainly be better protected and better insulated, while the "able-bodied" ought to have been out and about doing their work BUT with extra caution in place - that of distancing; sanitizing; face-mask-adorning; etc.

I guess that is what the "in-between" model would eventually settle down to - just as many of us have long suspected. Only have to wait few months more to know that!

[Thad E Ginathom]

Originally Posted by Miyata

Haha. I did read that and wanted to put it as an addendum to my post with some thought - but the edit window expired by the time I could act on it!

lol, I thought it was getting a bit like lobbing opposing quotes at each other!

I don't know that any country has not been "winging it," and, indeed, still is. The time for hasty action was at the start. Seems to me like the time for not being hasty is now. I don't know if I'm repeating myself or posted this elsewhere, but it feels like USA/UK/India policy has become when it gets really bad, we'll let everyone out.

I don't know if I can get the link for this one now, but another item from UK (Guardian, probably: it is my main source these days, since BBC went downhill) was to the effect of Experts begging UK Govt not to be hasty releasing lockdown.

Future... we'll see.

[ABHI_1512]

When I first heard about the virus way back in early January, I looked forward to the daily quota of newspapers first thing in the morning. The newspapers immensely helped me in having a fair view of the virus. The subsequent deaths also had a pattern in almost all the countries and i made an assessment in my mind that the virus is basically more dangerous for people having previous illnesses and which invariably included aged people. The deaths all across the world also subscribed to the same view.

With this realisation in the back of my mind and the subsequent increase in the numbers of recovered patients, I was mentally prepared for the virus. All through February, I waited for the authorities to come up with something substantial to tackle the virus, nothing happened. And then suddenly the channels started to drill fear about the deadly virus and the fear of the unknown started to brew in hushed tones.

And then the lockdown happened. Probably, no country in the world was ready for anything like CoronaVirus( if I have give the benefit of doubt) but by the time it reached Indian shores, I guess people who mattered should have known at least something from if not Wuhan but even Singapore. They didn’t care and continually gave a rosy picture of preparedness and plans of action to tackle before locking down the whole country in a matter of four hours !!

Point I am making here is what I have been saying all along. Fearing the virus is not a solution at all. We need to take care of the elderly that we know just like any other disease( may be little more because of the contagious nature) and rest we can try our best to fight it out. As I have mentioned before as well, the lockdown has created a bigger monster than the disease itself. In a diverse and big country as India, the complete shutdown was always a bad idea. A Calcutta or a Mumbai is not the same as a Chennai or Bangalore. Similarly, a state of Uttar Pradesh is not the same as a Arunachal Pradesh, heck even the north east India can do with a separate time zone in itself and which is a legitimate demand as well.

I for one, will always applaud the decision of the West Bengal government of not letting the tea gardens suffer because of the lockdown and letting them work with social distancing. Whoever has seen a tea garden will be aware that distancing is anyways maintained while plucking tea leaves and in the factory because of the safety standards with little tweaking. I had expected the central authorities to open up the country slowly after the initial lockdown but they kept on increasing the lockdown. Now that they have ran out of ideas to hoodwink, they are gleefully opening up everything putting the onus of safety on the general public at large. And when Akshay Kumar is at play, you know where the wind is blowing !!

Keeping the economy running with reduced capacities and increased heightened precautionary measures would have been ideal. Now, it has come to such a state that unemployment which was already at a 45 year high will further slide to abysmal figures. All I can see is stories of despair and nothing else. Cyclone Amphan has already tattered the fractured city of Calcutta and now I guess people don’t care about the virus or have made peace with it. Either way, people are limping back to earlier ways with precautions. But then, a country where public transport system is abysmal, it’s anybody’s idea how much of precaution one can take while going to work or something.

It’s easy to be a keyboard warrior as one can say, but trust me when I say that serving in a covid hospital with PPE kits is a brave thing to do. But then, the one who is delivering medicines to the needy is equally brave too not knowing which home will give him the virus and that too without the PPE kit. Someone going to the ATM to withdraw money is brave too since he/she doesn’t know which touch point will attract the virus. A guy who has to go to work catching a public transport is brave too despite the precautions knowing fully well about the crammed buses but also the fact that if he doesn’t go to work now, someone else will be waiting to take his/her place. I am not demeaning anyone here but just stating a point.

Lastly, going by some of the comments, I am now having serious doubts about being an unqualified intruder who has no business commenting on a thread that requires specialised knowledge about the virus. So, I guess I will stick to writing travelogues for which I don’t have to have any specialised knowledge

[mohansrides]

I have said this since the beginning. Now these guys are saying it.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india...tuXWiUEiI.html

To be clear, these guys are not from a “left wing” news organisation.

[MCR]

I know nobody talks of "Karnataka Model" for whatever reason!

But if you look at the situation in Bangalore or for that matter in Mysore, the virus has been controlled very well. Please read the article below which showcases how it was possible.

Link : https://www.thequint.com/news/india/...00-covid-cases

Compared to some states which tried to "hide" cases or elsewhere the count increased due to "gross mismanagement", Karnataka I would say has fared very well. The recent increase in cases are all linked to "import" from other states which is sad.

I am sure if the death toll was 100x of what it is today (which is very much possible considering the population we have and our social practices), the same so called "experts" would be singing a different tune!
Karnataka today has literally no lock down (other than in containment zones). Same would have been the situation all across the country if the count and the infection curve would have been lesser than today. But unfortunately its not so!

The most important point is to learn to "live" with the Virus, which means we should leave our general callousness back home and strictly follow personal hygiene.

[am1m]

Originally Posted by MCR

Link: https://www.thequint.com/news/india/...00-covid-cases

This article has been doing the rounds. While certainly, several things were done correctly and the Medical Community and the Government of Karnataka should be rightly credited for those, I think it is much too early to declare a 'success' or a 'failure' for any model or country/region.

Simply because things are changing every week and like with any new virus or pandemic in the early stages, scientists are still learning new things about it every week. Often the findings and situation from one week are contradictory to the next week's findings!

The difference is that the media needs to reduce everything to the simplest terms. 'Success' or 'failure', 'hero' or 'villain' and needs to publish that as a conclusion immediately. 'Hey we're still learning, we don't know for sure' doesn't make good headlines. Especially when that's the case every day. You can google and literally find reputed articles and experts (real and fake- and both types have their supporters!) supporting or refuting almost any point or stance. At this point, you can split and cherry-pick covid case statistics to prove any point for or against anything- lockdown, hydroxychloroquine, and so on.

Look at Sweden. Hailed as a model one month, a failure the next. I suspect the status of that model will flip-flop in the media a few more times before this is over. Look at Udupi. No cases for the longest time, now the maximum cases in the state. (Of course the blame will fall on the 'outsiders'.) Look at all the flip-flops on the efficacy of HCQ.

Things are changing, that's the way things work in medicine and science during the initial stages of any new epidemic. The virus doesn't get affected by politics or patriotism. It will run it's course and a conclusive assessment will be possible only years after.

[vivek95]

Originally Posted by am1m

Things are changing, that's the way things work in medicine and science during the initial stages of any new epidemic. The virus doesn't get affected by politics or patriotism. It will run it's course and a conclusive assessment will be possible only years after.

Correct. And the reason there are flip flops is that we are under estimating the contagiousness of this virus although superficially everyone is aware that the virus spreads fast. The day Karnataka opened the borders, I knew there is going to be a huge spike. Germany and such nations experienced this way back before us. So, taking cues from them, it never was a "surprise" that cases in Udupi, Belgaum, Mandya or such places reported a spike where Mumbai returnees accounted for the maximum positives. We will be eternally trapped in dark as long as we form policies based on "how many positives today"

I am closely watching New Zealand these days ( whose population is as much that resides in 4-5 suburbs of Mumbai ). Sweden model had always foreseen that there would be fatalities. This was explicitly mentioned many times earlier by their own heath agencies. As you said, neither is anyone successful nor has failed at this stage. Time will tell and that time is very long.

Democratic Republic of Congo officially reported 11th outbreak of Ebola virus on 1st June 2020. 6 people infected out of which 4 already died between 18th and 31st May. Now, that is what you call a "deadly disease", Covid-19 is nowhere close. The case fatality rate for Ebola is anywhere between 25 to a whopping 90% based on the geographical region and other factors. 9 people dying out of 10 infected !! And here our country is going into deadly arrythmia for 60-80% asymptomatic COVID-19 positive patients.

[wheelguy]

Lockdown in India is draconian, flattened the wrong curve, says Rajiv Bajaj. - Link

[Thad E Ginathom]

Should we worry any longer what anybody (perhaps including ourselves) thinks of lockdown? It is, pretty soon, going to be over. Let's check back in two to four weeks whether lockdown was, or will be, a good idea. Draconian or not.

Originally Posted by ABHI_1512

Lastly, going by some of the comments, I am now having serious doubts about being an unqualified intruder who has no business commenting on a thread that requires specialised knowledge about the virus. So, I guess I will stick to writing travelogues for which I don’t have to have any specialised knowledge

You need have no such doubts. We have a few doctors contributing to the thread, but the rest of us are just speaking from our own observations, conclusions and beliefs. Stick around and join in

The Hydroxychloroquine saga continues. Blockbuster scenes have included French drama: it causes quicker recovery; Trump washing it down with Lysol; denial of the French findings; testing by NHS staff; WHO worldwide trials; reports of higher death rate leading to ending of WHO world trials.

Latest I saw, yesterday, is that the deaths, whoa, end the tests thing might have been based on bad data. Don't miss the next exciting instalment. Or increasingly boring repetition of the story!

[PPS]

Maharashtra Government has allowed inter-district movement of people within the Mumbai Metropolitan Region.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...w/76195423.cms