[TRR]

Originally Posted by carboy

I am sure lockdowns are very good at slowing transmission. Nobody ever disputed that. But whenever lockdowns are ended be it 3 weeks or 5 weeks or 8 weeks, transmission will speed up again. All it takes is 1 infected person remaining behind after those 5 weeks or 10 weeks who will then infect 2 people, who will infect 4 people & after a few weeks we will be back to square 1.

If I'm allowed to speculate a bit, the primary purpose behind this lock down seems to have been to buy some time to prepare the administration and the healthcare infrastructure to rapidly respond to newer cases. The lockdown is not the sole cure for the virus and nobody has professed that. As such, the lockdown viewed together with the improvement in readiness of the healthcare infrastructure is what we should consider when debating on the outcomes once the lockdown is lifted. Even now, the necessary infrastructure and supplies are being rapidly scaled up to meet the situation. The ICMR is implementing measures to allow us to test nearly 100,000 people a day. The railways has built up a capacity of 40,000 isolation beds so far and is still making more. These are just a few that I could find quickly. Will these steps cure India of this virus and delete the problem when the lockdown ends? Not at all. But are we in a much better position today to deal with newer cases than we would have been if there was no lockdown? I think so.

When the lock down is ended, hopefully its sooner rather than later, the administration (I hope) will be in a much better position to ensure rapid testing and implement immediate isolation measures. Even if they detect 1 infected case, they would be able to detect that person much faster since they would have test kits readily available. The ICMR has even come up with a testing algorithm that allows us to identify a possible infection in 15-30 minutes. This will allow us to quickly identify even suspected cases and take the appropriate action by nipping the potential spread in the bud. This is much better than the 2-3 day confirmation time we were looking at on March 25th. A "back to square one" is realistically possible if the administration seriously botches it up or if people with symptoms choose to remain hidden (both of which in all likelihood, is possible in our country).

A prolonged lock down is in nobody's interest, whether you're rich or poor. I don't think anybody here is praying for prolonging the lockdown and completely ignoring the economic consequences of it. Was a lockdown necessary? Looking at countries like Singapore eventually having to hit the month-long lockdown button in spite of the slew of measures they undertook initially (In fact, Singapore's use of the system during this crisis was praised by Harvard epidemiologists in early February, who described it as a "gold standard of near-perfect detection") leaves me to believe that the lock down was only inevitable in a country like India. If a near-perfect response still mandated a shutdown, then honestly, I can only imagine the impact it would have had on an unprepared and far-from-perfect India.

How long should the lock down go on? I'm no expert but I believe, just long enough to buy us time to get ready to deal with any upsurge. Not for herd immunity to come into picture nor till we see whether the lockdown has worked in ridding the country of this virus. A phased removal seems to be the best way out once we have the infrastructure in a position to deal with it. Even now the authorities are detecting Covid hotspots and cordoning them off from the rest of the country. If the administration is able to severely restrict the movement to, from and within these hotspots, the best case scenario would be to open up the rest of the country with strict guidelines and ensuring appropriate enforcement. But I'm sure we all know how the country adheres to guidelines and also the state of enforcement that exists, so what will realistically happen is anybody's guess.

[greenoval]

A lawyer friend recently forwarded a circular from the Maharashtra Government which, according to him, invokes an act that deems the removal of any employee (temporary, permanent or on contract) by an establishment (irrespective of the size - big or small / type - shop, office, factory) during the lockdown period punishable. The salaries should also be paid fully, irrespective of the period of lockdown.

I am attaching the circular if someone is interested in reading the same (also, if the communication can be interpreted further as I am not good at reading Marathi. My understanding is based on what my friend told me).

Our tiny, self-funded establishment has paid all our employees for March even though the company income has been negligible. We are prepared to take the burden for April too. However, beyond April, we simply don't have the wherewithal to pay, if the situation continues. I understand the government has its people's best interests as priority but how to fulfill these good intentions is beyond us! How can this be a matter of compulsion by the government beyond a certain period?

I am not against lockdown or its duration if it genuinely helps but I expect some empathy from the government for small businesses or ones without deep pockets

[PPS]

Wearing masks made compulsory by BMC for every person moving for whatsoever purpose!

[v1p3r]

Out of all those dismissing the suggestion for anything other than a 100% prolonged lockdown, I wonder how many actually run a business or employ professionals. I've taken on personal debt to ensure that my colleagues, who count on me for the salaries that support them and their family, make it through this time unscathed. I'm sure now someone will come along and tell me that I am bad at running a business if I don't have a quarter's worth of cash. Maybe I am.

I supported the steps the government took to slow the spread, including buying us time with a lockdown. I instituted a WFH policy and locked down our office from the start of March, to be honest. However, the economic chops of the current dispensation do not inspire confidence. We were on the edge before this virus, and the only question now is how hard we will hit the bottom. I hope that we don't see mass starvation and riots. I also hope that this administration has used the lockdown to build an effective plan for the next 12 months, both for public and financial health.

[am1m]

District-wise enforcement begins: https://www.outlookindia.com/newsscr...ril-30/1795507

Guessing each state will follow suit.


"The Yogi Adityanath government in Uttar Pradesh has decided to "completely seal" 15 districts that have emerged as coronavirus hotspots, from Wednesday midnight till April 30.

The districts to be sealed are Lucknow, Noida, Ghaziabad, Sitapur, Kanpur, Agra, Ferozabad, Bareilly, Meerut, Shamli, Saharanpur, Bulandshahr, Varanasi, Maharajganj and Basti.

The move is aimed at checking the further spread of coronavirus in the state.

According to the government spokesman, the state will ensure doorstep delivery of all essential commodities for the residents and no one will be allowed to step out of their houses.

Of the 37 districts affected by coronavirus, these 15 districts have reported the maximum number of cases."

[poloman]

The total corona virus deaths in Kerala so far is 2. This despite the state is highly globalized and have a high number of diaspora outside the country. Lot of people had moved in before just before the lock down.

But 24 Malayalis have so far died outside the country primarily in US and UK. In many cases the relatives are now saying that the patient would have survived had they been in Kerala.


What is one required to conclude from this? How better is an Indian state in handling the pandemic or how bad is the situation in countries like USA and UK?

[CrAzY dRiVeR]

Source - https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/coro...counts-2208243

I guess most people already expected this, but here is an official hint that the lockdown will most likely be extended.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi said today that by all accounts, it will not be possible to end the lockdown on April 14, amid a spurt in coronavirus cases. In a meeting with leaders of all parties, he said he would consult with Chief Ministers but it looked unlikely that the lockdown could end anytime soon.

[dark.knight]

Excellent.. hope this lockdown continues, is even more strictly enforced by the cavalry going in patton tanks, shoot on sight orders be given and all for a minimum of 5-10 years (subject to extension by double that if necessary).

The world which will comprise only of bureaucrats, army, police and the 1% (which will become 40% due to population falling like flies), can re-populate and start a new earth, most wildlife would've been eradicated as well by then.

[Miyata]

Originally Posted by poloman

the relatives are now saying that the patient would have survived had they been in Kerala.

What is one required to conclude from this? How better is an Indian state in handling the pandemic or how bad is the situation in countries like USA and UK?

It may be a little outrageous (of me) to put it out there on a public forum without any specific details, but what I am hearing from (few) friends and family in the US is that they are facing "much" discrimination with regards to health care these days.

Quite a few places, apparently, in American hospitals, the Americans are being prioritized over non-Americans.

It's possible what the relatives from Kerala are stating might be quite true. Hopefully, we'll know more soon enough.

[ninjatalli]

Originally Posted by Miyata

Quite a few places, apparently, in American hospitals, the Americans are being prioritized over non-Americans.

It's possible what the relatives from Kerala are stating might be quite true. Hopefully, we'll know more soon enough.

There could be some amount of truth and a lot of situational constraints but I'd suggest waiting for official news to confirm this. There is this article on Washington Post on how the % of blacks is much higher in deaths (due to the virus) as compared to the peers across the country; this has been acknowledged by Trump in one of his conferences too. However, the article does also point out the lack on complete information on this.

[Turbanator]

As per some News, curfew in Punjab is extended until 30th April. In UP many districts have been sealed until 30th.

[Nalin1]

Originally Posted by dark.knight

Excellent.. hope this lockdown continues, is even more strictly enforced by the cavalry going in patton tanks, shoot on sight orders be given and all for a minimum of 5-10 years (subject to extension by double that if necessary).

The world which will comprise only of bureaucrats, army, police and the 1% (which will become 40% due to population falling like flies), can re-populate and start a new earth, most wildlife would've been eradicated as well by then.

Oh God! Well written!

Team-BHP is showing that this forum is not only about cars, bikes, engine oils and tyre pressure.

There are some here who do not believe in this 'complete' lockdown. That does not mean we are saying life should go on as normal simultaneously fighting the virus. All we are saying is that restrictions and precautions were the need of the hour and not a complete halt. A complete halt gives birth to so many issues that the virus will take the back seat now.

The decision makers are now saying since the affected numbers are still growing, the lockdown must continue!.

It could be months before we see dwindling numbers. Do we continue with this lockdown until then?

In that case this thread looks like hitting the million pages mark soon.

[wheelguy]

IT department to immediately release IT refunds, also GST and customs refunds will be released.

IT Department to release all pending income tax refunds up to Rs 5 lakhs immediately,around 14 lakh taxpayers to benefit. All GST & custom refunds also to be released, to provide benefit to around 1 lakh business entities including MSMEsepartment of Revenue, Ministry of Finance

Source

[Thad E Ginathom]

Originally Posted by Nalin1

... The decision makers are now saying since the affected numbers are still growing, the lockdown must continue!.

It could be months before we see dwindling numbers. Do we continue with this lockdown until then? ...

The alternative would be to put more infected and non-infected people back out there together, mix them together, and then what happens to those numbers?

The answer seems obvious to me. But the bigger question? Whilst that also seemed obvious to me a week or two ago, it no longer does.

Anyway, if people with yellow hair and zero applicable knowledge can voice their gut feelings, so can I . And my zero-knowledge position is that it seems that Infection is India is just getting off the ground, and a further two weeks seems right. After that I just have no clue.

I'm staying in. But I'm retired, so the impact is minimal. So long as we can get food. How long before that becomes in doubt I wonder.

[Samurai]

Originally Posted by greenoval

A lawyer friend recently forwarded a circular from the Maharashtra Government which, according to him, invokes an act that deems the removal of any employee (temporary, permanent or on contract) by an establishment (irrespective of the size - big or small / type - shop, office, factory) during the lockdown period punishable. The salaries should also be paid fully, irrespective of the period of lockdown.

I can't read the notice since it is in devanagari. Does it refer to any statute or regulation?

Governments assume that businesses are always flush with funds. Who is supposed to supply the funds to keep paying salaries? If the crisis is temporary, like a flood or earth quake, one can understand it. Businesses will swallow the cost and get back to normal business in 1-2 months. But this is a crisis without an end in sight. Businesses can't keep paying salaries for many months while not having any revenue. In fact, most will have to start drastic measures by next month, if they haven't already done so.