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View Poll Results: Do you support the lockdown extension?
Yes 299 47.46%
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Old 11th April 2020, 18:35   #676
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by V.Narayan View Post
Did not understand the point you are trying to imply. Please could you elaborate. It is very useful and safe to have a good hospital within a containment zone as it is expected that some more new positive cases will come up and better to treat them within the zone.
He is referring to the other way round. The hospital itself becoming a containment zone due to the medical staff getting infected in large numbers and hence - becoming a probable source of infection and also not being able to treat patients (CoVid-19 or non CoVid-19).

A couple of hospitals in Mumbai were declared containment zones and were subjected to quarantine for 14 days, as per protocol. This impacts availability of services in that area. Both are actually good hospitals to be honest.
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Old 11th April 2020, 19:39   #677
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by Behemoth View Post
Here is some official data shared by MOH&FW through PIB twitter handle on how the lockdown has slowed the number of cases and where India would be if India had not implemented the lockdown.
When the lockdown is lifted anytime in the future, won't the green worm follow the blue worm (with containment measures) or the red worm (without any containment measure)?

Last edited by SmartCat : 11th April 2020 at 22:40. Reason: Removed image from quote
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Old 11th April 2020, 19:50   #678
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by Behemoth View Post
Here is some official data shared by MOH&FW through PIB twitter handle on how the lockdown has slowed the number of cases and where India would be if India had not implemented the lockdown.
It's not data, it is guesses. (aka projections).

It may be right, of course, but that still doesn't make it data. The only data there is the green line, and even that should be called known cases. The actual number of cases is unknown and never will be known.
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Old 11th April 2020, 20:10   #679
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by msdivy View Post
When the lockdown is lifted anytime in the future, won't the green worm follow the blue worm (with containment measures) or the red worm (without any containment measure)?
Yes it may, but the hope is that some of the spread may be controlled by quarantine of the infected individuals. As the lockdown is extended the chance of the infected individuals recovering and becoming non infectious also increases.

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It's not data, it is guesses. (aka projections).

It may be right, of course, but that still doesn't make it data. The only data there is the green line, and even that should be called known cases. The actual number of cases is unknown and never will be known.
True that, and there may be many undetected cases which would continue spreading. Only when many more people start getting seriously ill and are hospitalized will the real numbers come out. I feel that in the current scenario the govt has taken the best possible action, but the execution was premature and they should have planned it better. The migrant crisis is a very big problem and they should have arranged some mode of transport for workers to go back to their towns. The unrest on this front is mounting now and the recent incidents in Surat highlight this.
Also this is harvest season now and the harvest during this period is critical for India's food security for the year.
My recommendation would be to at least open up these sectors asap
Agriculture and harvesting
Food transport and processing and storage
Cold chains
Transport (albeit with strict control and sanitization of trucks)
Energy sector (manufacturing, supply, distribution)

Post this in next phase (from May)
Packaged food manufacturing
Critical infrastructure construction
Goods retail (online first and offline eventually) and encourage all retailers to sell their goods online rather than through stores.
Electronics and durables manufacturing (with strict controls)

Post this (from June, subject to numbers being in control)
Reopen businesses but with revised working policies and controls & hopefully the heat would reduce the spread rate of the virus a bit.
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Old 11th April 2020, 20:12   #680
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Lockdown to be extended by two more weeks?

Tough call but right one at the moment IMO.

Last edited by vibbs : 11th April 2020 at 20:15.
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Old 11th April 2020, 21:26   #681
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Extremely frustrated to see some state authorities trying to keep their numbers good. Rajasthan has deducted few deaths due to Corona and attributing it to the renal failure and cardiac arrest, West Bengal, Gujarat and Karnataka not testing properly. Karnataka has 6 deaths and only 200 cases and WB 5 deaths and 125 odd cases, Gujarat has 22 deaths and only 400 cases! What these authorities are doing is criminal negligence. This is not the time to cook your books and try to look clean.

Last edited by vb-san : 12th April 2020 at 08:22. Reason: Minor update to tone down subsequent discussions
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Old 11th April 2020, 21:53   #682
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by The Rationalist View Post
Extremely frustrated to see some state authorities trying to keep their numbers good. Rajasthan has deducted few deaths due to Corona and attributing it to the renal failure and cardiac arrest, West Bengal, Gujarat and Karnataka not testing properly. Karnataka has 6 deaths and only 200 cases and WB 5 deaths and 125 odd cases, Gujarat has 22 deaths and only 400 cases! What these authorities are doing is criminal negligence. This is not the time to cook your books and try to look clean.
Any data to back your claims?
Don't think the authorities are trying to play down the numbers. What are they going to gain from that?

Last edited by vb-san : 12th April 2020 at 08:24. Reason: Quoted post edited, made related amends
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Old 11th April 2020, 22:11   #683
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Educational institutes in WB will now be closed till 10th June.

Source
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Old 11th April 2020, 22:12   #684
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by speedmiester View Post
Any data to back your claims?
Don't think the authorities are trying to play down the numbers. What are they going to gain from that?
Simple question to you sir, do you still believe in China's number, when the whole world is saying they didn't reveal the truth. Already a CM of a certain state has claimed that his state was in 3rd position when it came to the number of infected persons couple of weeks ago and now it is number 11 and ready to claim victory. Though there are no sources other than the government, we can only indulge in intelligent speculation. I really wish what the authorities are sharing is 100% correct.

Last edited by vb-san : 12th April 2020 at 08:27. Reason: Quoted post edited
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Old 11th April 2020, 22:21   #685
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by doxinboy View Post
Simple question to you sir, do you still believe in China's number, when the whole world is saying they didn't reveal the truth. Already a CM of a certain state has claimed that his state was in 3rd position when it came to the number of infected persons couple of weeks ago and now it is number 11 and ready to claim victory. Though there are no sources other than the government, we can only indulge in intelligent speculation. I really wish what the authorities are sharing is 100% correct.
Can you really compare China with our states?
China has an agenda to show everything is fine with them, what will any state gain by underreporting the numbers? They may not get sufficient funds and resources to tackle the problem if they do such things.

Last edited by vb-san : 12th April 2020 at 08:26. Reason: Quoted post edited
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Old 11th April 2020, 22:30   #686
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by speedmiester View Post
Any data to back your claims?
Don't think the authorities are trying to play down the numbers. What are they going to gain from that?
https://www.indiatoday.in/coronaviru...GpmxyxuLXnIVZI

https://www.deccanherald.com/nationa...o3f_3jNd6r-UAQ

Majority of people dying of Covid will have some co existing illness, you can’t cite that as cause of death! This is not some kindergarten exercise.

You can see the graph below and make intelligent guess. I and few other doctors are tracking all the data available without any bias. Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Kerala tops the testing strategy.
Attached Thumbnails
India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020-5335740dd16a4257b04ef7a3449e4e1e.png  


Last edited by vb-san : 12th April 2020 at 08:27. Reason: Quoted post edited
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Old 12th April 2020, 08:19   #687
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by The Rationalist View Post

You can see the graph below and make intelligent guess. I and few other doctors are tracking all the data available without any bias. Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Kerala tops the testing strategy.
Could you verify the source of that graph? Is it Facebook?

Last edited by vb-san : 12th April 2020 at 09:04. Reason: Please avoid political rants
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Old 12th April 2020, 08:44   #688
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Could you verify the source of that graph? Is it Facebook?
About the Facebook graph, that’s the work of doctor who is painstakingly collating data. It has been made from ICMR source.

Last edited by vb-san : 12th April 2020 at 09:05. Reason: Quoted post edited, removing related responses
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Old 12th April 2020, 09:31   #689
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by The Rationalist View Post
About the Facebook graph, thatís the work of doctor who is painstakingly collating data. It has been made from ICMR source.
I am not sure what's the credibility, here is the Rajasthan's data as of today. Number of tests samples received in state is 24857. The graph you posted puts that number around 14000. As I said that graph looks very biased.
Attached Thumbnails
India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020-img20200412wa0003.jpg  

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Old 12th April 2020, 09:36   #690
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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I am not sure what's the credibility, here is the Rajasthan's data as of today. Number of tests samples received in state is 24857. The graph you posted puts that number around 14000. As I said that graph looks very biased.
That’s because the graph was not from yesterday. It’s the data on April 8.

Last edited by The Rationalist : 12th April 2020 at 09:38.
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