[tsk1979]

Originally Posted by wrongturn

I am not sure what's the credibility, here is the Rajasthan's data as of today. Number of tests samples received in state is 24857. The graph you posted puts that number around 14000. As I said that graph looks very biased.

No, there is no bias here. Every different portal is giving different numbers. So probably when this graph was made there were 14000 tests being reported. Now its higher. Even on the same day I have seen numbers fluctuating on govt websites.

Nevertheless 14000 or 25000, the number is comical
Rajasthan has 70 million people
That is 0.35 tests per thousand people.

USA is currently at 7, and countries like Ecuador are at around 1.5. Italy is at 15 tests/1000 people.

India has to go to 3-4 tests/ 1000 people at-least for a clear picture to emerge.

https://icmr.nic.in/sites/default/fi...il_9PM_IST.pdf
Total of 165000 people tested,. which gives our overall test rate /1000 people at 0.13. So not enough testing is being done. Hopefully, they will ramp up with the news of rapid kits. From the govt website on the rapid test kit

https://icmr.nic.in/sites/default/fi...9_ComboKit.pdf

[fordday]

Would like to know from doctors especially who are at the frontlines, what is the state of availability of PPE kits?

Central health minister went on to say more than a week back that there is no shortage of PPE kits as of now. At the same time he mentioned India is importing lakhs of kits. On the same day Delhi chief minister claimed Delhi (its the capital, of all places) haven't received a single PPE kit.

Other states were not very forthcoming but some disturbing news from doctors in Bengal using rain coats as PPE.

Moreover reports of health workers getting infected are increasing.

[Turbanator]

Some Disturbing News from Patiala where few Nihangs picked up an argument with Mandi Board official and later had fight with Police.
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/punj...ckdown-2210329

[rrsteer]

I fear these skirmishes between the police and locals are bound to increase, especially in Punjab, where we are generally a hot headed lot. The mood is tense, I sense revolt among some farmers and vegetable vendors. This is what happened in Jalandhar - 500 passes were issued to traders at the main vegetable mandi, but police found far excess than 500 traders present and going about their affairs. Per DC orders, they halted the mandi and took a number of vegetable trucks in their possession. Since, more passes have been re-issued and some trucks released, but a few small traders that frequent our society are warning that things may take turn for the worse if lockdown continues. Sincerely pray this difficult times passes away quickly and normalcy return asap.

[Sankar]

People are getting restless after 3 weeks of being locked down with another 2 weeks or more which is now expected and they cannot be blamed. I guess many of us now have an idea of how a caged pet feels like or how it is like being in a prison. There are news reports of minor agitations in Madurai by people who have no money to buy even the essentials. Personally, I feel like I am losing my mind by being caged.

[himanshugoswami]

Guys is there anyway one can get a pass to go from delhi to chandigarh. Im stuck in delhi for last 20 days and desperately need to go back to chandigarh, but don't have any medical emergency (thankfully!), that seems to be the pre requisite to get a curfew pass. Any other way?

[mohansrides]

Originally Posted by Thad E Ginathom

indefinitely is simply not on the cards. Isn't going to happen. Makes a good dramatic point, though. To be honest, I don't think you need to be that dramatic: for an indeterminate amount of time is probably scary enough

I used the word "indefinitely" and you used the phrase "indeterminate amount of time". What is the difference?

Originally Posted by Turbanator

Some Disturbing News from Patiala where few Nihangs picked up an argument with Mandi Board official and later had fight with Police.

I actually expected such things to happen if the lockdown went beyond May. The fact that these signs are popping up even in the 3rd week of lockdown should tell us what the outlook for such measures is in the long run.

Setting aside the economic factors, there is the simple argument that people will start to view the lockdown as imprisonment for no fault of their own. Because let's face it, in a sense it is exactly that. And when that mental shift occurs in the population, no amount of shouting from the rooftops that a lockdown is for the common good will prove effective. More so when we cannot even conclusively prove...

a.) that a lockdown is a surefire way to defeat the virus.
b.) that a lockdown saves more lives than it takes away in the long run.

Some people will counter by saying that Indians need to be dealt with with a big stick and that we should bring in the army and declare martial law. What a thoughtless and ridiculous argument that would be!! If we bring the army to our streets and start shooting at our own people, we will turn our citizens against our army which essentially defeats the point of a national army instituted to protect the country's citizens.

More importantly, there is the big problem of diluting our protection in the front lines. Already we have evidence of border breaches even during this difficult time. Imagine what will happen if we move forces to our cities to quell civil protests while leaving our frontiers unguarded, or not guarded well enough.

Incidentally, aside from the physical attacks on our borders, look at these economic offensives from a foreign power -

1. https://www.ndtv.com/business/people...=home-trending.
   
   
2. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...r-m-a-bargains

China managed to restrict their lockdown to only one province thereby keeping their economic engines largely intact. Now, with their better positioned finances, they are coming for our economic beachheads through fissures created in our economy due to this full-scale lockdown.

Still think that this lockdown will save lives, lives and lives?

We are sitting ducks here. Economically, socially, and physically. Exposed to a thousand dangers. All because we are collectively unwilling to accept a 5% risk of fatality, and ONLY of those actually infected. This is at least a little bit embarrassing considering that we routinely expect people to lay down their lives for us. I said this in the other thread and I will say it again here. In a best case scenario, these boys accept a 50% risk to their lives to protect us. What are doing in the meantime to deserve their loyalty?

[The Rationalist]

Originally Posted by fordday

Would like to know from doctors especially who are at the frontlines, what is the state of availability of PPE kits?
Central health minister went on to say more than a week back that there is no shortage of PPE kits as of now.
Moreover reports of health workers getting infected are increasing.

In Maharashtra, PPE is worn only while doing procedures which can result in transmission like Endotracheal intubation, central venous lines etc. In Kerala PPE is worn full time by medical staff. There is shortage of PPE thats why different strategies. In addition in Kerala AC is not kept on in patients cubicle for fear of spread of virus. That makes it extremely difficult to wear for 8 hours.

I had worn it for 2-3 hours during Nipah virus attack in Kerala in 2018. To be honest it was like being in an oven and you can’t breath normally and can’t even urinate. I have nothing but highest regards for the nurses who have to wear the PPE for 8 hours or more. In this fight against Corona, its the nurses who have to be appreciated. They are the real HEROES!

[Thad E Ginathom]

Originally Posted by mohansrides

I used the word "indefinitely" and you used the phrase "indeterminate amount of time". What is the difference?

None. My very bad choice of words. Trouble is, I'm not sure what the right ones are.

I read someone saying "until we have a vaccine." What? a year at least and maybe for ever? No, I don't think so.

Until the disease has fizzled out? How long would that take? Don't suppose anybody knows, and also, how would they even know when nobody was carrying it. Not a practical possibility.

But... is three weeks too short a time? That's certainly a maybe. Perhaps should have been declared as a month, instead of three weeks becoming five.

Yes, I do think lockdown has saved lives. That and all the contact tracing. Look where USA is now, despite having been able to see developments in China from the very beginning. And, of course, very much, India's quick early actions.

[TRR]

Originally Posted by mohansrides

Incidentally, aside from the physical attacks on our borders, look at these economic offensives from a foreign power -

1. https://www.ndtv.com/business/people...=home-trending.
   
   
2. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...r-m-a-bargains

China managed to restrict their lockdown to only one province thereby keeping their economic engines largely intact. Now, with their better positioned finances, they are coming for our economic beachheads through fissures created in our economy due to this full-scale lockdown.

Still think that this lockdown will save lives, lives and lives?

Hi Sirji, I would rephrase this as below -

China, apparently, managed to restrict their Covid-19 spread to only one province thereby keeping their economic engines largely intact. Now, with their better positioned finances, they are coming for our economic beachheads through fissures created in our economy due to this large-scale pandemic, that many of us didn't do a good job at containing.

If you are implying that the Chinese economic offensive is ONLY because of the lockdown, then I am sorry but it is blatantly wrong.

Regarding the HDFC thing, I realize you are 100% against the lockdown, but please refrain from spreading misinformation. I think it would be wise if we take the time to read the full article and then form our judgements.

Excerpt from the moneycontrol article on the same (link) -

The Chinese Central Bank has bought 1,74,92,909 crore shares, or 1.01 percent of the shareholding, according to exchange data. The share purchase is likely to have happened between January and March.

The above is also included in the NDTV link that you shared. As such, it looks like the purchase was made well before the lockdown, and therefore there seems to be no link between the lockdown and this purchase by the PBOC.

Also, have a look at the HDFC Ltd share price chart in the link.

If the PBOC bought HDFC Ltd shares after the lockdown was instituted (though they have not), then they don't seem to have really benefitted and we seem to be overestimating the Chinese intelligence, and ambition to takeover the world, by a big margin

Further, one of the articles you have shared primarily talks about the European economy. Quoting from the same Bloomberg link you shared, you seem to be underestimating European government and corporate responses to the Chinese -

Deals led by Chinese firms, particularly those owned or backed by the state, risk setting up clashes with European governments, who have signaled their willingness to defend strategic sectors.

In anticipation of potential hostile suitors, including Chinese firms, some of the corporates in Europe are dusting off their defense strategy, the people said. Bankers have been asked to help in defending against potential takeovers, they said.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government plans to bring in new rules that enable the authority to block deals that present “potential interference” to the country’s interests, protecting local companies from takeovers by entities based outside the European Union, according to an official who spoke on condition of anonymity.

It’s likely that only 10% to 20% of the Chinese outbound deals being discussed will come to fruition given the heightened scrutiny, one of the people said.

So no, we aren't going to stand by the wayside and let them take our "economic benchheads", so to speak. The governments all over the world have more ways than one to counter the Chinese. Also, the last line speaks volumes of Chinese ambition versus ground reality. So let's cut the paranoia a little slack.

Interestingly, also looks like the economy around the world, and in India, is going into a slump because of the Coronavirus itself, and not solely because of the lockdown. A very interesting thought that seems to have slipped a lot of our minds. So yes, I think the lockdown will save lives since it looks like our economy and the world's economy had gone for a toss MUCH BEFORE THE LOCKDOWN

[speedmiester]

Originally Posted by mohansrides

We are sitting ducks here. Economically, socially, and physically. Exposed to a thousand dangers. All because we are collectively unwilling to accept a 5% risk of fatality, and ONLY of those actually infected. This is at least a little bit embarrassing considering that we routinely expect people to lay down their lives for us.

Our fatality rate is at around 3.5% as of today with a confirmed cases of 8730 with deaths at 293. We have lost a few doctors and medical personals in this battle already. This is despite a lock down.
In a populous country likes ours with limited resources, that 5% you speak of will easily turn into 20-25%, Italy's fatality rate is at around 13%. What then?
Can we turn back time to implement any measures to save lives? Already we have multiple hospitals closed because of contamination, imagine what would have happened with no intervention and a stage 3/4 transmission numbers?

I said it back before and I will say it again, I do not want a doctor to choose between my life over my parents and this will be true for a majority of us.
I rather eat one meal a day for the rest of my life than living with this regret.

[naveen.raju]

So finally I had to go out today to get a charger for my wife's laptop (electronic shops were allowed to open today). On the entire stretch I did see few cops here and there but no checking (one cop was looking whether all were wearing masks inside the car). Maybe they were posted at Marine Drive which is the mobile shop hub here in Cochin. Almost everyone were wearing masks which is really a good thing. All the petrol stations, bakeries were open too.

Felt really good to be back on the road after more than 3 weeks. Life was empty but now got recharged .

[mohansrides]

Originally Posted by TRR

If you are implying that the Chinese economic offensive is ONLY because of the lockdown, then I am sorry but it is blatantly wrong.

I never said anything about ONLY. Because even if the appropriate phrase is "before and during the lockdown", it should be a cause for worry because the lockdown gives people huge opportunities for economic offensives.

Originally Posted by TRR

Regarding the HDFC thing, I realize you are 100% against the lockdown, but please refrain from spreading misinformation. I think it would be wise if we take the time to read the full article and then form our judgements.

I never tried to spread misinformation. I provided a link to a legitimate news website and then I professed an opinion based on the article, which incidentally, I am fully entitled to do.

So, please do not make thoughtless accusations. With your gung-ho outlook for the lockdown, when we can't even tell for sure if that is the right measure, I have not accused you of spreading misinformation about a measure that has cost my organization and teammates dearly, have I? Because let us be clear, all the information that you have presented are only estimates of lives saved due to a lockdown. They are not absolute numbers. Also till date, we have no empirical data on the number of lives lost DUE to the lockdown, both due to the consequent economic or physical hardships.

Also, if the lockdown as a measure is so effective, why hasn't NY initiated it? Even if we argue that federal powers are weaker in the US, the state does have the power to initiate at least some version of a lockdown. Why have they not done so?

Originally Posted by TRR

Excerpt from the moneycontrol article on the same - The Chinese Central Bank has bought 1,74,92,909 crore shares, or 1.01 percent of the shareholding, according to exchange data. The share purchase is likely to have happened between January and March.
(link) -

Originally Posted by TRR

The above is also included in the NDTV link that you shared. As such, it looks like the purchase was made well before the lockdown, and therefore there seems to be no link between the lockdown and this purchase by the PBOC.

If the PBOC bought HDFC Ltd shares after the lockdown was instituted (though they have not)

If the money control article is saying that the shares were bought between January and March and our lockdown was first tried on March 22nd and then fully initiated on March 24th evening, how is it that you are saying for sure that the Chinese buy DID NOT occur during the lockdown?

Originally Posted by speedmiester

Our fatality rate is at around 3.5% as of today with a confirmed cases of 8730 with deaths at 293. We have lost a few doctors and medical personals in this battle already. This is despite a lock down.
In a populous country likes ours with limited resources, that 5% you speak of will easily turn into 20-25%, Italy's fatality rate is at around 13%. What then?

I will grant you that the lockdown as a measure is something that would not be light on the administration's head. Heavy is the head that wears the crown and all that.

But, on what basis are you freely quoting a 25% death rate sir, that too as if that is a certainty? Italy's death rate was compounded by their demographic which skewed towards the elderly. We don't have that kind of population pyramid here, and yet I conservatively estimated 5% going by NYC, which is not under lockdown, and which is showing 4% fatality of those infected.

I have never ever made light of this health crisis. But, there is mounting evidence of the economic pain that is going to be far reaching, and that is going to outlast this health crisis and likely cost many many lives. We got severly hurt on day one itself.

Originally Posted by speedmiester

I rather eat one meal a day for the rest of my life than living with this regret.

Very well. But, that is you and your point of view. My point is that you do not get to impose that point of view on me and my team when we have no hand in creating this crisis. What of the people who have lost their livelihoods due to this measure? Will you compensate them because everyone is forced to comply and align with your point of view?

[carboy]

Keki Mistry & Deepak Parekh said that Chinese already owned 0.8% even a year back. So they bought only 0.2% now.

[wheelguy]

Originally Posted by mohansrides

We are sitting ducks here. Economically, socially, and physically. Exposed to a thousand dangers. All because we are collectively unwilling to accept a 5% risk of fatality, and ONLY of those actually infected. This is at least a little bit embarrassing considering that we routinely expect people to lay down their lives for us. I said this in the other thread and I will say it again here. In a best case scenario, these boys accept a 50% risk to their lives to protect us. What are doing in the meantime to deserve their loyalty?

5% ? We are talking about a contagious disease with an incubation period ranging from a week to two weeks, which spreads like a wildfire before we even realize that we are spreading it, at times the disease is asymptomatic which is even more dangerous, that 5% can in matter of a small time can become 50%~60%(just an exaggerated exponential extrapolation) in a country with ~135 crore population. We can ignore it if it's a non-contagious disease, or a contagious disease with small incubation period(say <= 1 day), but this is not that. That 5% would have been okay if we are talking about anything non-contagious, but this is a contagious one.

Moreover we shouldn't consider that fatality rates/percentages, we should consider the % of positives out of the total population, suppose let's assume that 5%(or say 1%) of our country turns out positive, are we equipped enough to treat those ~6.5(1.3) crore effected?

Counter argument is lift the lockdown and go ahead with rules, regulations, and restrictions. How effective will it be in a country where most of the people risk their lives but resist/refuse to wear helmets, and refuse to follow the rules, unless strictly supervised, punished and penalized?

Do we have enough police personnel to do detailed supervision of ~130 crore people and enforce the rules/regulations, that too 24/7?

Are our policemen empowered enough and strict enough to make people like Wadhawans who violated the lockdown and other powerful people to follow the rules/restrictions?

Can/will all of our policmen be equally strict towards the privileged and the under-privileged?

Where? In a country where lockdown violators chopped off policeman's hands for interception?