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View Poll Results: Do you support the lockdown extension?
Yes 299 47.46%
No 244 38.73%
I'm unsure 87 13.81%
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Old 12th April 2020, 19:18   #706
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by mohansrides View Post
But, on what basis are you freely quoting a 25% death rate sir, that too as if that is a certainty? Italy's death rate was compounded by their demographic which skewed towards the elderly. We don't have that kind of population pyramid here, and yet I conservatively estimated 5% going by NYC, which is not under lockdown, and which is showing 4% fatality of those infected.
The number is quoted with an estimation considering our population, health care facility and resources. Just like you are comfortable with a 5% number to justify your views, I can justify my views with my numbers.
We have a very large population density, with out lock down the fatality rate will be high.

Just because we don't have high elderly population doesn't mean they are not vulnerable. In India, a lot of elderly people live with their children who will be out and about and without lock down or any preventive measures, their own children can infect their parents. What then?

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I have never ever made light of this health crisis. But, there is mounting evidence of the economic pain that is going to be far reaching, and that is going to outlast this health crisis and likely cost many many lives. We got severly hurt on day one itself.
Economy is suffering because of the pandemic, not just because of the lock down. What if the pandemic systematically wipes out a section of people who are critical for our economic growth, do you think it is justified?
There is enough evidence on how countries who went the other way have suffered.

I am also affected by the lock down. I have agreed to work without compensation for three months, this despite having enough financial liabilities that keeps me awake at night. But one thing is for sure, even if I am down to my last rupee, I will support any decision to save lives.
I can start from zero money if I am alive, but not the other way around.

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Very well. But, that is you and your point of view. My point is that you do not get to impose that point of view on me and my team when we have no hand in creating this crisis. What of the people who have lost their livelihoods due to this measure? Will you compensate them because everyone is forced to comply and align with your point of view?
Same way you do not get to impose your point of view on me and others.

Say let's agree with you and imagine we didn't have a lockd own. People will go about their work amid the pandemic. Yes, they will have their livelihood and economy will chug along. If they get infected and succumb to the disease because our hospital systems are overloaded what good is that money they earned in the interim.

Livelihoods can be brought back, what about lives?
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Old 12th April 2020, 20:07   #707
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by mohansrides View Post
All because we are collectively unwilling to accept a 5% risk of fatality, and ONLY of those actually infected.
5% fatality is a very high estimate for even those infected. Some people are totally asymptomatic. So they may not be tested & will not count in the denominator. 80% of people recover without any special treatment. Considering this, the fatality may be close to 1% or lesser.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/n...mortality-rate


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Originally Posted by speedmiester View Post
Economy is suffering because of the pandemic, not just because of the lock down. What if the pandemic systematically wipes out a section of people who are critical for our economic growth, do you think it is justified?
That's true. Lockdown will only wipe out people who aren't critical for economic growth. It will wipe out only the poor who don't have resources to eat without working.
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There is enough evidence on how countries who went the other way have suffered.
People who went the other way probably knew it would be worse in the short term. It's too early to judge if it will be actually worse in the long term.


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Originally Posted by speedmiester View Post

Say let's agree with you and imagine we didn't have a lockd own. People will go about their work amid the pandemic. Yes, they will have their livelihood and economy will chug along. If they get infected and succumb to the disease because our hospital systems are overloaded what good is that money they earned in the interim.
Those people who cannot eat without working are now anyway congregating to get food from charities & others. The lockdown will not really help them avoid contact. It will most help people who can afford to sit at home & netflix during the lockdown so as to avoid contact.

Last edited by carboy : 12th April 2020 at 20:15.
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Old 12th April 2020, 20:33   #708
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by wheelguy View Post
Counter argument is lift the lockdown and go ahead with rules, regulations, and restrictions. [u]How effective will it be in a country where most of the people risk their lives but resist/refuse to wear helmets, and refuse to follow the rules, unless strictly supervised, punished and penalized?

I have a pass from the police to facilitate an emergency service in our area which makes it imperative for me to pass a few police barricades. The cops are at their wits end trying to enforce the lockdown. Last 1 week has been extremely stressing for them with the increasing number of areas in Mumbai becoming containment zones, and the growing impatience is very evident. I have made it a point not to argue at these checkpoints. The empty streets in a few areas are being used by the locals to play gully cricket. Not surprisingly, today my car was checked for bat and football! One smart fellow with an emergency pass for carrying medicines had a box full of cigarettes in the car. No need to mention the VIP treatment meted out to him.

We owe it to these fellows on the frontline, battling the virus and the searing heat, to do our bit and obey the lockdown rules.

Last edited by Eddy : 12th April 2020 at 21:03. Reason: Fixed quotes
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Old 12th April 2020, 21:34   #709
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Kerala have 2 new Corona cases today and the worrying thing is those two came from abroad, the last flight to India was on March 22, so that means the incubation period is at least 22 days, could be even more. We will come to know of the real incubation period by another two weeks.

Last edited by The Rationalist : 12th April 2020 at 22:04.
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Old 12th April 2020, 21:43   #710
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

A very interesting talk by Sekar Gupta of the print.


He tells how India's lockdown is the strictest while fiscal stimulus is the lowest among countries in a study
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Old 12th April 2020, 21:55   #711
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by The Rationalist View Post
Kerala have 2 new Corona cases today and the worrying thing is those two came from abroad, the last flight to India was on March 22, so that means the incubation period is 22 days, could be even more. We will come to know of the real incubation period by another two weeks.
A 58 year old male who came back from Indonesia on 21st March is one of the positive cases in Bengaluru. So, that makes the incubation period a day longer than the Kerala cases.

However, government releases don't mention the exact date on which the testing was carried out. So, unless the test results are coming in real fast, within a few hours, it is difficult for US to exactly pin point the incubation period for each cases. Isn't that so?
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Old 12th April 2020, 21:58   #712
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

We are in a big mess already. If the lockdown continues like this, the daily wage workers and their families are going to perish out of starvation.

If we break the lockdown, we might end up risking stage 3 or 4 transmission and end up worse than USA and Italy.

Either way people are going to die. Who ends up on which side is decided completely by the govt. This is the sad reality.
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Old 12th April 2020, 22:02   #713
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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However, government releases don't mention the exact date on which the testing was carried out. So, unless the test results are coming in real fast, within a few hours, it is difficult for US to exactly pin point the incubation period for each cases. Isn't that so?
The results are available on the same day of testing. Tomorrow onwards most states will get Rapid testing, that will bring out results in 2 hours. As per a CDC article, AC is causing spread of viral particles beyond the 1 meter droplet spread. Looking at the number of cases in Western countries which have mostly air conditioned interiors, that may be the reason for high numbers. That would also explain why air travellers got affected more.
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Old 12th April 2020, 22:04   #714
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by wheelguy View Post
that 5% can in matter of a small time can become 50%~60%(just an exaggerated exponential extrapolation) in a country with ~135 crore population.
50% to 60%? Why stop at that number? Why don't you go right ahead with a 100% number and say that we are all going to die if a lockdown is lifted. Going by this logic, we will be in lockdown until 2021 when a vaccine is supposedly on the horizon. By that time, the economy will well and truly be in the crapper, and I am willing to bet that the prevailing mood in this thread will be entirely different. Also, if we all subscribe to this view, no one will venture out even when a lockdown is lifted. Then we are truly doomed.

Also , I never made an argument for lifting the lockdown with restrictions. There I fully agree with you. Rules will never be applied as intended in such a scenario. The only solution that I can think of is to restrict movement in certain geographic parts with a high concentration of cases and allow others to function. Also, keep the elderly and others with comorbidities at home. To be clear, we can only reduce the risk. Attempting to completely eliminate the risk will send us on a path from which there is no economic recovery.

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Originally Posted by speedmiester View Post
I am also affected by the lock down. I have agreed to work without compensation for three months, this despite having enough financial liabilities that keeps me awake at night.....

Same way you do not get to impose your point of view on me and others.
Sir... Not to get caught in the semantics. But with all due respect, I am not trying to impose my view on you. I actually have no way of doing so. But, by contrast, your view has in fact been imposed on me, and many like me, against our will. I understand your willingness to work without pay and you are free to do so because it is your choice to enable what you want in life. My point is that through no choice of their own, my colleagues are also losing their jobs so that people such as yourself can live without your regret.
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Old 12th April 2020, 22:11   #715
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

I think we are seriously discounting the fear factor among the people irrespective of the class when deciding on lifting or not lifting the lockdown. If we open up certain industries on April 14, are we sure that the work force is going to return on same day and start production in full swing.

Many people think that the lock down is forced on the poor and middle and upper class people favor it by and large. I think this is not entirely true. Even in essential services sector which is permitted to work with out restriction, huge shortage of labor is witnessed. Many workers have fled their posts fearing the worst. So with out confidence boosting measures, even if you lift lock down it may not result in desired results.

I know a orthopedic doctor, who stopped practice fearing infection. Now this may look far fetched. But even for doctors, own life matters the most.

Last edited by poloman : 12th April 2020 at 22:14.
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Old 12th April 2020, 22:22   #716
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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If we open up certain industries on April 14, are we sure that the work force is going to return on same day and start production in full swing.
Arent there already a lot of people working round the clock? Lot of doctors and nurses are working, so would be other staff at hospitals etc. Police is working. We are getting milk, vergetables and other stuff at home so lot of people in these industries are working as well. Food delivery is working. Our security staff are working, so are support people like janitors, electrician etc in the society.

At some point others would also have to come to work. Nobody can stay and sit cloistered at home forever. The virus is here to stay whether we like it or not. A vaccine is at least a year away and who knows, how quickly it will be manufactured and distributed and administered to all 7+ billion of us! But if we are not working, we all will run out of food, or money or water or electricity or all/any of the other essential stuff and life will be over much before. At some point we all will have to decide to brave the virus, face the risk and get to work!
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Old 12th April 2020, 22:39   #717
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Sirji,he is the kind of person who will save you from the economic down turn you were lamenting so far. If people like him don't buy after the lockdown that will become a bigger problem than the lockdown itself.

In fact Kerala has allowed AC and fan shops to open on Sundays with limited man power.

Last edited by Eddy : 12th April 2020 at 23:39. Reason: quoted post deleted
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Old 12th April 2020, 22:55   #718
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by mohansrides View Post
Sir... Not to get caught in the semantics. But with all due respect, I am not trying to impose my view on you. I actually have no way of doing so. But, by contrast, your view has in fact been imposed on me, and many like me, against our will. I understand your willingness to work without pay and you are free to do so because it is your choice to enable what you want in life. My point is that through no choice of their own, my colleagues are also losing their jobs so that people such as yourself can live without your regret.
What if the pandemic spreads unchecked and cause the economy to fail worse than what it is now? Wouldn't that cause job losses and other associated pains?
Given a choice what would you do? Go about your normal life and risk getting infected with a disease that has very transmission rate and affect others as well. This is just because you want to see the money coming in every month?
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Old 12th April 2020, 23:09   #719
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Default Plastic Surgeons at PGI Chandigarh reattach severed hand

Punjab cop's hand successfully reattached by Plastic surgeons after being chopped with sword in attack by Nihang Sikhs

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The doctors at PGIMER successfully grafted the cop's chopped hand after 7.5 hours long plastic surgery, which they said was "technically very complex and challenging".

"The reimplantation was started around 10 am after initial preparation of the amputated part. Both radial and ulnar artery, the vena commitantes and an extra dorsal vein were anastomosed. All the flexors and extensor tendons were repaired" Dr Jagat Ram, PGI Director, said.

He said that the nerves at the wrist were repaired and bony fixation was also done using three K-wires.

"The approximate time taken is about 7.5 hours. This is technically very complex and challenging surgery, which has been successfully done." Dr Jagat Ram said.

PGI doctors who performed the surgery said that cop's hand is viable, warm with good circulation.

Plastic surgery team consisted of consultants Dr Sunil Gaba and Dr Jerry R John. Senior residents Dr Suraj Nair, Dr Mayank, Dr Chandra and Dr Shubendu, anaesthesia team consultant Dr Ankur Senior Resident, Dr Abhishek and Dr Purnima, nursing team S/N Arvind, S/N Sneha and S/N Arsh," a PGI spokesperson said.
https://www.indiatoday.in/india/stor...222-2020-04-12

Last edited by vb-san : 13th April 2020 at 05:45. Reason: Typo
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Old 12th April 2020, 23:27   #720
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by speedmiester View Post
What if the pandemic spreads unchecked and cause the economy to fail worse than what it is now? Wouldn't that cause job losses and other associated pains?
Given a choice what would you do? Go about your normal life and risk getting infected with a disease that has very transmission rate and affect others as well. This is just because you want to see the money coming in every month?
Sir.... I have made my views quite clear on this many many posts ago. So, let us not have me repeat myself. Let us agree to disagree and move on.

Last edited by Eddy : 12th April 2020 at 23:36. Reason: removed off topic and vernacular content
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