Team-BHP > Shifting gears


View Poll Results: Do you support the lockdown extension?
Yes 299 47.46%
No 244 38.73%
I'm unsure 87 13.81%
Voters: 630. You may not vote on this poll

Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Old 13th April 2020, 02:55   #721
BHPian
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Bir-Billing, HP
Posts: 453
Thanked: 857 Times
Default

The figures of 5% or 50% don't make any sense right now as we won't ever know the total number of infected people till the whole world is tested.
I have said this in the other thread as well, that the numbers which, for me, show the current picture is the no of deaths and no of recoveries. Currently that number is 21% and 79%. In the beginning deaths were as low as 10%. This number only pertains to the people who need hospitalization and in reality, those are the people who we actually have to worry about.
So right now, 1 in every 5 people, who is being hospitalized is dying. These numbers are higher for some countries, currently 41% in US and 36% in Italy.
One of the WHO doctors, who is currently serving in Spain, is also a member on Techenclave also confirmed that the numbers look correct. He said that, of all the people who are hospitalized, 20% are dying, 10% recover but with lung damage and 70% recover completely.

Looking at these numbers, it is definitely a deadly disease and the main worrying factor is that how easily it transmits and infects. The same doctor told that, the WHO doctors, despite having the best PPE and the best training as well as previous experience in dealing with deadly pandemics, are still getting infected. So a lockdown definitely is the only protection one has against this pandemic for now.

Having said that, I also agree that it just won't be feasible to continue with a lengthy lockdown as many lives will get lost due to starvation. Huge announcements were made that people will be provided with 3 months ration for free, but the bitter reality is that here in our village, this month's ration has still not arrived and is not gonna come till the 20th. And even then, it will have to be bought with money and not given free as promised.
The second announcement was that all farmers will get the 2000 bucks payment they supposedly get every 4 months immediately. Truth is that many farmers have not even received last years payment and now the PM KISAN website itself is down so no one can check the status.

So, as much as I want fellow Indians to stay at home, the truth is that most of them can't because the government is not able to provide them with either food or money which would have ensured that they stay at home.

Last edited by rdst_1 : 13th April 2020 at 02:56.
rdst_1 is online now   (12) Thanks
Old 13th April 2020, 05:35   #722
Distinguished - BHPian
 
Thad E Ginathom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Chennai
Posts: 9,729
Thanked: 16,669 Times
Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by mohansrides View Post
So, please do not make thoughtless accusations. With your gung-ho outlook for the lockdown, when we can't even tell for sure if that is the right measure,
The only support you have for maybe it should not have been done is measured in number of words. Can you not see the simple truth that, if you keep people apart, they cannot catch diseases from each other? It does not take science, maths or statistics, just a little common sense.

I admit that I don't know if, when we all go back to normal life, we also go back to virus square one. Only time will tell.

Quote:
Also, if the lockdown as a measure is so effective, why hasn't NY initiated it? Even if we argue that federal powers are weaker in the US, the state does have the power to initiate at least some version of a lockdown. Why have they not done so?
We are not supposed to talk politics here, but just look at the quality of leadership in, for example, USA and UK. UK, at least backtracked, but probably too late.

Last edited by Thad E Ginathom : 13th April 2020 at 05:37.
Thad E Ginathom is offline   (11) Thanks
Old 13th April 2020, 06:58   #723
Senior - BHPian
 
vibbs's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: SG
Posts: 1,109
Thanked: 1,903 Times
Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

BMC has temporarily shifted 50 OPD patients from KEM hospital to under Hindmata flyover to prevent over crowding.

https://mumbaimirror.indiatimes.com/...w/75063707.cms

"Under the flyover". Just let that sink in.

Drastic times need drastic measures. Minus the lockdown? I dont know.

COVID 19 hits people. It also hits the health infrastructure.

Last edited by vibbs : 13th April 2020 at 07:07.
vibbs is online now   (6) Thanks
Old 13th April 2020, 07:30   #724
BHPian
 
AMG Power's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: BLR
Posts: 891
Thanked: 5,074 Times
Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by TRR View Post
please refrain from spreading misinformation. I think it would be wise if we take the time to read the full article and then form our judgements.

Excerpt from the moneycontrol article on the same ([[gence, and ambition to takeover the world, by a big margin ...
Looks like you haven't read the full article either.

The very next paragraph states:

Quote:
The timing of the share purchase is significant given that HDFC shares have been sliding in the recent weeks. Since the first week of February, the shares have fallen by 41 percent.
There is obviously very little connection between the lockdown and purchase of shares.

There needn't be.

But there is a connection between the onset of the pandemic in November, the expected resultant crash in economies and the consequent fall in share prices.

China's plans have worked out wonderfully well and they have closed in for the kill as planned. And its not some intricate under cover plan but on the contrary is bang out in the open.

That HDFC shares were being hammered far more than other bank shares is the usual game to facilitate the purchase by China.

To dismiss all of this as regular economic turbulence would be naivette.

Here's one of the several articles on what other countries are doing to block China acquiring companies during the pandemic:

https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/www.b...r-m-a-bargains

I hope India doesn't allow itself to be a sitting duck.

Last edited by AMG Power : 13th April 2020 at 07:53.
AMG Power is offline   (2) Thanks
Old 13th April 2020, 08:19   #725
Senior - BHPian
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Kolhapur
Posts: 1,583
Thanked: 993 Times
Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by Thad E Ginathom View Post
Can you not see the simple truth that, if you keep people apart, they cannot catch diseases from each other? It does not take science, maths or statistics, just a little common sense.

I admit that I don't know if, when we all go back to normal life, we also go back to virus square one. Only time will tell.

Again that is common sense. Anytime lockdown is lifted, we will go back to square one after sometime. If it's lifted after 1 week or 1 month or 6 months. That will be so till a vaccine is made, trialed & scaled for production for the whole world. Or till enough people get exposed.

The point of the lockdown is not to stop the virus - it's just to stagger the infections. Without a vaccine, I don't see how total number of infections after say 1 year is different with or without lockdowns.
carboy is offline   (3) Thanks
Old 13th April 2020, 08:19   #726
TRR
Newbie
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Bengaluru
Posts: 11
Thanked: 285 Times
Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by AMG Power View Post
Looks like you haven't read the full article either.

There is obviously very little connection between the lockdown and purchase of shares.

There needn't be.
This is what I stated in my post sir. I apologize if I wasn't very clear, but I only made that statement since a direct connection between the lockdown and the share purchase was being brought up, not between the pandemic and the share purchase.

My statement was this - "As such, it looks like the purchase was made well before the lockdown, and therefore there seems to be no link between the lockdown and this purchase by the PBOC."

I also stated this -

Quote:
Originally Posted by TRR View Post

Interestingly, also looks like the economy around the world, and in India, is going into a slump because of the Coronavirus itself, and not solely because of the lockdown.
So I fully realize that the economy is in doldrums because of the pandemic situation. The share purchase by the PBOC most definitely had to do with the low share prices of HDFC as a result of the pandemic. What I am saying is that it is not because of the lockdown. Apologies if I was not very clear on this.


Quote:
Originally Posted by AMG Power View Post
But there is a connection between the onset of the pandemic in November, the expected resultant crash in economies and the consequent fall in share prices.
I whole-heartedly agree with this.

Quote:
Originally Posted by AMG Power View Post
That HDFC shares were being hammered far more than other bank shares is the usual game to facilitate the purchase by China.
A minor correction, the HDFC they bought isn't the bank HDFC but the finance HDFC. But yes, even this HDFC's shares were battered severely.

Quote:
Originally Posted by AMG Power View Post
To dismiss all of this as regular economic turbulence would be naivette.
Not doing that, never did. Just saying that our economic problems are not solely due to the lockdown, but rather the larger issues of the pandemic and the resultant erosion in consumer demand levels and other economic intricacies.

Quote:
Originally Posted by AMG Power View Post
Here's one of the several articles on what other countries are doing to block China acquiring companies during the pandemic:

https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/www.b...r-m-a-bargains

I hope India doesn't allow itself to be a sitting duck.
I believe @mohansrides also quoted the same article and the latter half of my post was primarily referenced around this article itself. I too hope that the administration moves quickly to block off such predatory moves by our neighbour.
TRR is offline   (1) Thanks
Old 13th April 2020, 08:41   #727
BHPian
 
Join Date: Jan 2019
Location: TN-11, AP-03
Posts: 468
Thanked: 1,092 Times
Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by carboy View Post
Again that is common sense. Anytime lockdown is lifted, we will go back to square one after sometime. If it's lifted after 1 week or 1 month or 6 months.
No Wait. Did we read, that, life of the virus is 14 days. If it doesnít find another body to transmit itself, it will die. Thatís the goal of this lockdown in multiples of weeks. Starving the virus and stopping the community spread. Iím open for corrections.
Now after the lockdown, theoretically the virus has to be dead in all the bodies including the asymptotichmm carriers and the air is clean for you and me to enter our daily routines.
saisree is offline  
Old 13th April 2020, 09:11   #728
Senior - BHPian
 
vibbs's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: SG
Posts: 1,109
Thanked: 1,903 Times
Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by saisree View Post
No Wait. Did we read, that, life of the virus is 14 days. If it doesn’t find another body to transmit itself, it will die. That’s the goal of this lockdown in multiples of weeks. Starving the virus and stopping the community spread. I’m open for corrections.
Now after the lockdown, theoretically the virus has to be dead in all the bodies including the asymptotichmm carriers and the air is clean for you and me to enter our daily routines.
Wait. Where did we read that the life of the virus is 14 days?

We did read that the incubation period is 2-14 days with possible outliers having upto 27 days. Am I missing something?

Last edited by vibbs : 13th April 2020 at 09:34.
vibbs is online now   (2) Thanks
Old 13th April 2020, 09:22   #729
Senior - BHPian
 
ninjatalli's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: BOM
Posts: 2,370
Thanked: 5,528 Times
Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by saisree View Post
No Wait. Did we read, that, life of the virus is 14 days. If it doesnít find another body to transmit itself, it will die. Thatís the goal of this lockdown in multiples of weeks. Starving the virus and stopping the community spread. Iím open for corrections.
Now after the lockdown, theoretically the virus has to be dead in all the bodies including the asymptotichmm carriers and the air is clean for you and me to enter our daily routines.
You misread it. Or rather you picked up on some bit of information that was a limited/timebound inference; subject to further information being unearthed as more clarity is obtained about the virus.

- The incubation period for symptoms to arise, as seen in most seen so far, is about 5-14 days; hence the quarantine period is kept as such. But there can be outliers to this; there have been several cases seen; a few discussed on this and the coronavirus thread too.

- The virus does not survive more than a few hours to 2-3 days (depending on whatever surface you refer to) on non-living surfaces; with a mix of temperature, humidity and other conditions applicable

- There is no clear proof that the virus dies in a human being. There is sufficient studies/views/inferences/noise being made of the virus reappearing (a second bout of sickness) in some of the cured patients in China/Asia; so I believe there is still no clarity on this aspect. The most logical point of reference on this is to consider the common cold. The virus never dies; the body just develops immunity against the virus; but it eventually reappears every ~6 months (on a general basis). Similarly the flu virus has a cyclical period of ~1 year. The cyclic period for corona-19 is yet to be confirmed.



The lockdown has many motives; the two most important ones being
1. Flatten out the curve; the virus was always expected to hit a good majority of all folks; the choice is to see that happen in a short period of time or over a longer period with a lower % being infected eventually.

2. Allow time for the government and supporting entities to scale up their resources and capabilities; on the testing front, on medical supplies, on hospital beds and required equipment and so on.
ninjatalli is offline   (13) Thanks
Old 13th April 2020, 09:43   #730
BHPian
 
vivek95's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: Bombay/Belgaum
Posts: 564
Thanked: 3,955 Times
Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Team BHPians on road during lockdown ( Essential services sector )


Tagging myself from Mumbai ( I am a Doctor ). Driving on the empty roads of Mumbai has never been this peaceful Over the last 20 days, owing to slightly fast driving, I observed that many sections of this particular road that I have been driving on since last 3+ years are actually somewhat slippery. Never experienced this before in the slow moving traffic. Think there is difference in the quality of intercity highways and city roads.
Attached Thumbnails
India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020-img_20200403_180505__01.jpg  

India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020-img_20200403_180841__01__01.jpg  

vivek95 is offline   (12) Thanks
Old 13th April 2020, 10:24   #731
Distinguished - BHPian
 
Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: Delhi-NCR
Posts: 2,852
Thanked: 31,354 Times
Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Thank you @TRR for your post number #700 in which you put things on the HDFC/PBOC share transaction in its correct perspective.

An FII (PBOC is one in the context of India) can freely buy or sell shares in a listed Indian company. They already owned 0.2%, as TRR explained, and have now bought a further 0.8%. Frankly they did nothing different from what I did as this was a great opportunity to attain a better average price. The acquisition of HDFC shares by an FII is nothing out of the ordinary. Would we have got alarmed if the acquirer had been UBS or Morgan Stanley or BNP? No investor can acquire more than 5% of a listed Indian company without publicly declaring both its holding and its intentions and after that any further acquisition of shares has to be via an open public offer. India is not a banana republic where foreigners can walk in and take over.

Let's stay away from these conspiracy theories of Chinese trying to take over or having laid out this game plan of Export the CV19--> global economic collapse --> China takes over. Too many ridiculous American videos, already out there, on this scare mongering.

On another point -- while the economic going will be tough for most nations the four large nations most likely to pull out relatively healthier will be USA, China, Japan, Germany & India. We should not under estimate the fundamental resilience, the depth and the nimbleness of the US economy. Don't be surprised if the US economy & the USD emerge stronger than ever in 9 months.
V.Narayan is offline   (22) Thanks
Old 13th April 2020, 11:54   #732
Senior - BHPian
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Bangalore
Posts: 1,062
Thanked: 1,805 Times
Infractions: 0/1 (4)
Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

US nationals in India prefer to stay back. Pretty ironic but understandable
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...w/75113781.cms
One can only wonder what happened to the well oiled health care system in US. As I pointed out around 25 Malayalis have died so far in US alone compared to 2 in Kerala. Their relatives have complained vociferously about the ad hoc treatment system they received.
Looks like US health system is good only for advance treatments; pandemics and community medicine, they are not well prepared.
poloman is offline   (3) Thanks
Old 13th April 2020, 11:57   #733
BHPian
 
civic-sense's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Bangalore
Posts: 879
Thanked: 1,491 Times
Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by mohansrides View Post
All because we are collectively unwilling to accept a 5% risk of fatality, and ONLY of those actually infected.
This is a lie that has been peddled by the men in suits and has be repeated everywhere by the rest who don't stop one second to ponder over whether it is true or not.

As of today, in Maharashtra when 217 people recovered from the illness, 150 died. That is like 40% of all cases where there was an outcome. You do not die in a day or two or even a week. If you add the numbers who got infected during the last few days to the denominator, you get a death rate worth boasting, but that does not prevent people from dying.
civic-sense is offline  
Old 13th April 2020, 12:09   #734
BHPian
 
AMG Power's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: BLR
Posts: 891
Thanked: 5,074 Times
Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by V.Narayan View Post
No investor can acquire more than 5% of a listed Indian company without publicly declaring both its holding and its intentions and after that any further acquisition of shares has to be via an open public offer.
An open market offer is a procedure.

Not a ban.

You pay the average price of the last 12 months and you can pick up shares. There is no restriction on increasing shareholding if the procedure is followed and you have the money.

An individual buying shares is a bit different from FII of a country whose strategic interests on a global level have been openly declared by various actions to be against that of the home country. The countries it partners with, the strategic positions it takes with neighbouring countries, its transparency levels are pointers that indicate whether counter measures are needed.

Quote:
Originally Posted by V.Narayan View Post
Let's stay away from these conspiracy theories of Chinese trying to take over or having laid out this game plan of Export the CV19--> global economic collapse --> China takes over. Too many ridiculous American videos, already out there, on this scare mongering. ...

...India is not a banana republic where foreigners can walk in and take over.
Of course, this does sounds like a conspiracy theory and it can be dismissed as one too. A rationalist would rightfully wait for proof before claiming such a conspiracy did exist. However no country would ever let another in on a plan to take over sensitive organisations in that country - each county just needs to take measures to protect itself.

So one can either wait and see if it happens and then declare that there was indeed a conspiracy and be caught napping

OR

take pre emptive steps like some of the other nations are doing such as:

(1) Italy, a country that is on the verge of collapse and should actually be eager to invite FII's to bring in money into their county has instead passed a ban on investment by FII in banks, insurers, energy and healthcare.

(2) Spain another country that has been affected severely and who should welcome FII investments has instead, on March 17th passed a law that FII's outside the EU would need governmental authorisation to invest more than 10% in public, private or strategic sectors. And they don't intend to give such authorisation.

(3) Germany is passing new laws that authorise the government to block deals that present "political interference" by entities outside the EU.

All of this has happened over the last few months and after the pandemic outbreak.

India, on the other hand is still on the old "make an open offer, pay up and it's yours" school of thought.

That, given current global thinking and initiatives does make it a banana republic of sorts.

And just in case you didn't notice, the post quoted by you as putting things in the correct perspective is in support of the "conspiracy theory" too.

Last edited by AMG Power : 13th April 2020 at 12:21.
AMG Power is offline   (3) Thanks
Old 13th April 2020, 13:07   #735
Distinguished - BHPian
 
Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: Delhi-NCR
Posts: 2,852
Thanked: 31,354 Times
Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by AMG Power View Post
Of course, this does sounds like a conspiracy theory and it can be dismissed as one too. A rationalist would rightfully wait for proof before claiming such a conspiracy did exist.

That, given current global thinking and initiatives does make it a banana republic of sorts.
We'll agree to disagree and move on. We all base our judgement on our experiences. After having been a part of nine M&A deals {as buyer or seller not banker} my experience tells me that this is not a creeping acquisition and does not merit this suspicion. But it is quite likely you have seen more.
Quote:
India, on the other hand is still on the old "make an open offer, pay up and it's yours" school of thought.
It would be helpful if you can you point me to a list of strategic or large Indian listed companies taken over by foreign buyers through open market operations.
V.Narayan is offline   (3) Thanks
Closed Thread

Most Viewed
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Team-BHP.com
Proudly powered by E2E Networks