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View Poll Results: Do you support the lockdown extension?
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Old 13th April 2020, 13:18   #736
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by AMG Power View Post
India, on the other hand is still on the old "make an open offer, pay up and it's yours" school of thought. That, given current global thinking and initiatives does make it a banana republic of sorts.


Umm, I don't know if you can put it this way. There have been multiple historic precedents of India (either through the Regulatory bodies/ Government agencies) stepping in and blocking large share deals for specific reasons. The most recent one that comes to mind is the RIL-Saudi Aramco deal (link), which the government attempted to block to recover government dues. If the government can step in for monetary reasons, it can very well do so for national security reasons and as per this link, it has already noted this development and is said to be unhappy about it.

The only way they managed to sneak into this 1% shareholding is by purchasing 0.2% after a year since as of March 2019, they had a 0.8% stake, disclosures for this are not required and we only got to know since they crossed the 1% mark. An open offer is much, much more publicized and draws a lot of eyeballs across markets. The government in such an instance will have ample warning to step in to cut off such an attempt, root and stem, if they are of the opinion that this is detrimental to the national interest.

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Originally Posted by AMG Power View Post
And just in case you didn't notice, the post quoted by you as putting things in the correct perspective is in support of the "conspiracy theory" too.
If you're referring to my earlier post, I had very clearly stated - "So no, we aren't going to stand by the wayside and let them take our "economic benchheads", so to speak. The governments all over the world have more ways than one to counter the Chinese. Also, the last line in the quoted article speaks volumes of Chinese ambition versus ground reality. So let's cut the paranoia a little slack."

So while I think it's possible, the ground reality for a Chinese world takeover is very different and I stated as such in that post. If I unwittingly made a case for a conspiracy, I sincerely apologize.

Another reason as to why I would discount Chinese takeover theories is that China simply has too many problems coming from this. Their flagship Belt and Road Initiative is looking to be taking a beating from this Coronavirus mess (link), and China is by far the biggest lender under this initiative. Elsewhere on this forum, there have been articles shared on Chinese companies winding up as a result of this.

Really the only advantage they have is that they are communist and can manipulate their numbers, currencies and statistics at their own whims and fancies.

Another thought that strikes me. If the Chinese have so much money as to takeover companies around the world, why were they waiting for the markets to drop down? A 30% correction in the markets suddenly gave them an impetus to indulge in a buying spree? Did they have insufficient funds before that this 30% window has now given them an opportunity to invest? Why not just print money for this 30%? Either way, they are well known for manipulating their currency's value. This is a genuine query I have regarding this takeover theory. A logical answer to this would be most welcome from my end.

Either way, I think this discussion is more appropriate in the global economy thread. Mods, please do shift this post, if inappropriate for this thread.
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Old 13th April 2020, 13:40   #737
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by vibbs View Post
BMC has temporarily shifted 50 OPD patients from KEM hospital to under Hindmata flyover to prevent over crowding.

"Under the flyover". Just let that sink in.

.
I am not sure why they felt the need to shift "under flyover"?
I am from Hindmata, and there is a big municipal school just a stone throw away. There is another private school nearby- St Paul with a huge playground.

There are so many places near KEM where these 50 people could easily be shifted.
How are they going to provide basic facilities under flyover? Maybe they arranged it since there is a Sulabh toilet under flyover.

Last edited by silverado : 13th April 2020 at 13:42.
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Old 13th April 2020, 13:47   #738
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

No official announcement from PM regarding extension of lockdown yet. I wonder what are they waiting for as people are getting anxious. Even the news channels are keeping mum about this. Strange.
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Old 13th April 2020, 13:51   #739
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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How are they going to provide basic facilities under flyover? Maybe they arranged it since there is a Sulabh toilet under flyover.
Could be. I would give them the benefit of doubt. They would have weighed all options.

I am just wondering, what would the scene be if situation spirals out of control.
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Old 13th April 2020, 13:55   #740
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Weighing his views on lives vs economy, here comes a well articulated article.

COVID, Health & The Economy: Thinking About the Numbers

Quote:
problem is, practically all commentators treat lives and GDP as a binary choice, when what we really want is to know what the reasonable tradeoffs look like. Because whatever choice we make there is going to be a tradeoff, and we shouldn’t call ourselves moral until we know what it is.

Suppose government just stood back and let the epidemic run wild. How do the lives lost compare to the cost of a lockdown ?

As for the value of lost lives, suppose that the lockdown had never happened. Then simple models where infectivity (the famous R0) = 3 predict that the US gets herd immunity when 66% of the population has had the disease and become immune. With 2% mortality that’s 4 million dead. Economists and regulators normally say lives are worth about $10m each, so that’s $4 trillion and well-worth a lockdown if the country can substantially reduce casualties.

Once the epidemic takes off, people will start quarantining no matter what government says. So the economic cost might not really be avoidable, the best government can do is cajole citizens in the direction of being more reasonable.

Can We Do Better?

argument so far is that the cost of a shutdown is less than the value in lives we expect to lose. But the real question is whether shutdown will do any good, i.e. how many lives it can save. The basic point is that our 2% mortality figure is not really a constant. Once the hospitals are overwhelmed, people who should have gotten hospital care but don’t will die about 10 times more frequently

The final big uncertainty involves just how fast the economy will recover. Whether it will be short and sharp or more U-shaped is unknowable. But we should be at least somewhat optimistic. French GDP ran at 70% in WWI (all those guys in the trenches followed by 1918 flu) and 50% in WWII (all those slave laborers deported to work for the Nazis). Yet it came back quickly after both Wars. So while our estimate of one month’s GDP loss is plainly a guess, it is at least consistent with precedent.

Americans ought to give themselves credit. The lockdown was a good decision, and since then we have shown that we can “bend the curve” even in ultra-dense New York City. The task now is to steer ourselves back out of the crisis. But we have made a good beginning.
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Old 13th April 2020, 14:09   #741
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by harry10 View Post
No official announcement from PM regarding extension of lockdown yet. I wonder what are they waiting for as people are getting anxious. Even the news channels are keeping mum about this. Strange.
I guess it will be confirmed today or tomorrow. There's a chance of categorizing all the states to various zones like red, yellow and green based on the level of cases. Based on this, the lockdown will have some sort of ease. So I guess they are deciding on this and what needs to be opened, who can go out, and other restrictions (It's already in place here in Kerala). Once everything is strictly on paper, the announcement should be made. This is what some local news channels mentioned.
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Old 13th April 2020, 14:35   #742
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by rdst_1 View Post
The figures of 5% or 50% don't make any sense right now as we won't ever know the total number of infected people till the whole world is tested.
Absolutely correct.

Quote:
Originally Posted by rdst_1 View Post
Currently that number is 21% and 79%. In the beginning deaths were as low as 10%. This number only pertains to the people who need hospitalization and in reality, those are the people who we actually have to worry about.
So right now, 1 in every 5 people, who is being hospitalized is dying. These numbers are higher for some countries, currently 41% in US and 36% in Italy.
One of the WHO doctors, who is currently serving in Spain, is also a member on Techenclave also confirmed that the numbers look correct. He said that, of all the people who are hospitalized, 20% are dying, 10% recover but with lung damage and 70% recover completely.
Sir... Normally, I would ask you to cite your sources. But, even taking your numbers from face value, we are saying that we are only measuring those who actually come to the point of requiring healthcare facilities. And even in that subset of patients, there are more recoveries.

Now, if we consider that the vast majority of patients don't even get to the point in the Covid illness where they require a hospital, then we can begin to measure the ROI of a solution that exacts a huge price from literally every person in the country.

Again, no one is watering down the seriousness of the illness for those in the hospital. But, the problem is that too many people are watering down the seriousness of the repercussions of the lockdown as a solution.


Quote:
Originally Posted by rdst_1 View Post
Having said that, I also agree that it just won't be feasible to continue with a lengthy lockdown as many lives will get lost due to starvation. Huge announcements were made that people will be provided with 3 months ration for free, but the bitter reality is that here in our village, this month's ration has still not arrived and is not gonna come till the 20th. And even then, it will have to be bought with money and not given free as promised.....The second announcement was that all farmers will get the 2000 bucks payment they supposedly get every 4 months immediately. Truth is that many farmers have not even received last years payment and now the PM KISAN website itself is down so no one can check the status.

So, as much as I want fellow Indians to stay at home, the truth is that most of them can't because the government is not able to provide them with either food or money which would have ensured that they stay at home.
Correct again. Many people talked with such confidence about our PDS. Even I thought that a reliable PDS was our strength. But, the truth is that when you take people out of the workforce, who is going to do the actual work of distributing anything? Even if we argue that essential services are allowed, none of these departments is working at full capacity. Also, the fear of the disease has permeated deep and even those who are being allowed to work are fearful of doing so.

Result = We have woefully inadequate systems to cope with the economic pain.

These are the latest pieces of news as to how the prices of essential food items is shooting up -
  1. https://www.indiatoday.in/mail-today...148-2020-04-04

  2. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...w/75113111.cms

You and I can possibly tolerate these price increases. But, remember that huge swaths of people in our cities cannot tolerate these steep increases. Their current salaries have no room; and many are not even making any money at this point. So, they have to survive on their own meager savings, or on the kindness of people.

My own uncle is stuck by himself in a far off suburb of Chennai. His wife is stuck in Bangalore with his daughter. Thankfully, my uncle is in good health. So, that is one less worry for us. But, he is a deaf and mute person who is prone to violent fits of rage if he does not get enough social opportunities. His 40 year career as a factory worker (for Lucas TVS) provided him with those opportunities. But now, alone at home, he is on thin ice.

So, I video call him once a day to help him decompress.

With the better part of his life spent on the factory floor, he has no domestic skills. Can't cook. Does not even know what to buy to cook a meal. Too late for him to learn now. So, he has to step out of the house to a hole-in-the-wall restaurant near Ambattur bus stop serving bus drivers.

Yesterday, he was signing to me that the price of a simple meal in that hole-in-the-wall place has gone up to Rs. 150!!

Scoff at that number if you wish. But, imagine your household help paying that money for a meal on the salary that you pay her!! Ridiculous does not even begin to cover it. A lockdown is such an elegant sounding solution. If only reality was that elegant!!


Quote:
Originally Posted by Thad E Ginathom View Post
The only support you have for maybe it should not have been done is measured in number of words. Can you not see the simple truth that, if you keep people apart, they cannot catch diseases from each other? It does not take science, maths or statistics, just a little common sense.
I don't want to repeat myself, so I will simply copy/paste from my post earlier in this thread.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mohansrides View Post
First, let us see this article from yesterday. It says that two people in Kerala who showed absolutely no symptoms tested positive for Covid 19. This happened because these two were actually tested. That is a big departure from just three weeks ago when these two would not have even qualified to be tested considering that they are asymptomatic. All of us know that prior to the lockdown plenty of people voluntarily asked to be tested given their travel history. They were asked to go home if they showed no symptoms or very mild symptoms.

Coming back to the present day, the above mentioned two people only got tested because they arrived from the UAE. That is one more criteria they had to fulfill to get tested.

Next, let us take a look at yesterday's news again where 51 ex-Covid patients tested positive again after having been cured of the disease and released from the hospitals. And you yourself have pointed out that Hong Kong is pondering the problem of a second wave of infections.

If we take the above two points in tandem, it begs the following questions...
  1. What really is being achieved by an economy crushing lockdown when we know that there could potentially be tens of thousands of Covid positive, and yet asymptomatic, people who will never be identified because we are not testing every single person in the population? I mean, these people could be spreading the infection even after a lockdown is lifted, could they not?

  2. What is the assurance that an extended lockdown will eliminate the virus for good considering that it is now coming back in waves, as is the case with South Korea, or even Hong Kong by your own information?
Also see this link from today's news about recovered patients testing positive again - https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/coro...home-topscroll

In short, we have absolutely no way of saying for sure if a lockdown is going to solve this problem for us because the risk of re-infection is real; plus, the virus could simply wait out the lockdown and then come back firing on all cylinders. In the meantime, we are paying a huge price economically speaking. Now, before you dismiss talks about the economy as prioritizing money over lives, let me assure you that without money there is no way to preserve life anywhere. When we talk about hurting the economy, we are talking about hurting our own purchasing power to buy food, medicines, and a roof over our heads.

Incidentally, from your earlier posts, I take it that you are a pensioner. So, if I may take the liberty, this argument may be more academic for you because you have done your stint and are expected to get your pension irrespective. But, for all of us in the working age, we need to work to take care of our families. Indeed, we need to work to even finance your pension.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Thad E Ginathom View Post
We are not supposed to talk politics here, but just look at the quality of leadership in, for example, USA and UK. UK, at least backtracked, but probably too late.
You say no politics and then proffer an opinion, on the sly, about the politics and political leaders of the West. Really?!

Donald Trump is to a lot of Americans what our PM is to us. You may not like President Trump for his much-mocked ways. But, there is no question that he was elected democratically, and that too by what could be termed a landslide. So before we go around posturing that we are somehow more intelligent and more concerned about our citizens than leaderships in the west are of their citizens, I suggest that we think again.

Truth is that there are no perfect answers here. It is a question of what a decision maker, any decision maker, thinks is a greater threat.

In any case, as bad as this pandemic and our response to it is, the silver lining is that we are being put through our paces. In a sense, this is one gigantic drill for the next crisis whenever that hits.


Quote:
Originally Posted by vibbs View Post
BMC has temporarily shifted 50 OPD patients from KEM hospital to under Hindmata flyover to prevent over crowding.

https://mumbaimirror.indiatimes.com/...w/75063707.cms

"Under the flyover". Just let that sink in.

Drastic times need drastic measures. Minus the lockdown? I dont know.

COVID 19 hits people. It also hits the health infrastructure.
Everyone is reading the news and everyone is aware of the severity of our resources being stretched. No question about that. We need very very aggressive solutions in healthcare to tackle the volume of patients, both Covid and non-Covid. We have to throw every bit of our time and energy in exponentially expanding our healthcare capacity.

But, the point is that prevention by way of shutting ourselves down will only work in the short run. Anything beyond a few weeks is setting the ball rolling for an avalanche of problems that will befall us. There will likely be millions of job losses, and that is just in the organized sector. The unorganized sector will get absolutely pulverized. When these outcomes happen - indeed some of this is already happening - healthcare being stretched will feel like a smaller problem. Also remember that aside from Covid, people have N other health issues for which they have to pay to get care. Every doctor out there will be asked to work for free; if not in full, then at least for some part of their work hours. This will happen. We will be in a world of trouble with a stopped economy where no one is making money.


Quote:
Originally Posted by civic-sense View Post
This is a lie that has been peddled by the men in suits and has be repeated everywhere by the rest who don't stop one second to ponder over whether it is true or not.

As of today, in Maharashtra when 217 people recovered from the illness, 150 died. That is like 40% of all cases where there was an outcome. You do not die in a day or two or even a week. If you add the numbers who got infected during the last few days to the denominator, you get a death rate worth boasting, but that does not prevent people from dying.
Sir... The method of measuring death rate as how many people died vs. how many people recovered only happens once an outbreak has run its course. During the outbreak itself, the death rate is only measured as the number of people who have died vs. the total number of infections.

And what of the people who are dying, or who will likely die, due to the lockdown? What are your words of succour to them? Never mind that. We don't have to answer that question because conveniently we don't have good data. No one is counting those casualties.

Last edited by Aditya : 14th April 2020 at 07:29. Reason: Please refrain from making personal attacks on fellow BHPians
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Old 13th April 2020, 14:46   #743
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

PM Modi to address nation at 10 am tomorrow!

I guess by now we all have a fair idea of the contents of his speech. Will be interesting to see the much talked about risk based zoning and its nitty gritties.

An indicative risk based profiling of the zones into color coded clusters and possible permitted activities:

India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020-e60693aad3c942c3bd90afc641209533.jpeg

Image Courtesy: Times Now

Last edited by Warwithwheels : 13th April 2020 at 14:56.
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Old 13th April 2020, 14:56   #744
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by mohansrides View Post

Everyone is reading the news and everyone is aware of the severity of our resources being stretched. No question about that. We need very very aggressive solutions in healthcare to tackle the volume of patients, both Covid and non-Covid. We have to throw every bit of our time and energy in exponentially expanding our healthcare capacity.

But, the point is that prevention by way of shutting ourselves down will only work in the short run. Anything beyond a few weeks is setting the ball rolling for an avalanche of problems that will befall us. There will likely be millions of job losses, and that is just in the organized sector. The unorganized sector will get absolutely pulverized. When these outcomes happen - indeed some of this is already happening - healthcare being stretched will feel like a smaller problem. Also remember that aside from Covid, people have N other health issues for which they have to pay to get care. Every doctor out there will be asked to work for free; if not in full, then at least for some part of their work hours. This will happen. We will be in a world of trouble with a stopped economy where no one is making money.



.
Err, if everybody has been reading news I am wondering why news reports are being thrown around in this forum.

Nevermind, I hope everyone is aware that an extended complete lockdown is out of question and simply unsustainable. Then why the unnecessary debate?

Even as I type, this industries across India are slowly limping back to work albiet at reduced loads. I wonder what the talk is about?
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Old 13th April 2020, 14:59   #745
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by vibbs View Post
Err, if everybody has been reading news I am wondering why news reports are being thrown around in this forum.

Nevermind, I hope everyone is aware that an extended complete lockdown is out of question and simply unsustainable. Then why the unnecessary debate?

Even as I type, this industries across India are slowly limping back to work albiet at reduced loads. I wonder what the talk is about?
You know what!! You are absolutely correct. No point really. This is my last post on this thread.

Cheers
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Old 13th April 2020, 15:06   #746
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Toyota Kirloskar Motor gears for 50 percent production with two shifts, post the lock-down.


Link
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Old 13th April 2020, 15:09   #747
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by mohansrides View Post
Sir... The method of measuring death rate as how many people died vs. how many people recovered only happens once an outbreak has run its course. During the outbreak itself, the death rate is only measured as the number of people who have died vs. the total number of infections.

And what of the people who are dying, or who will likely die, due to the lockdown? What are your words of succour to them? Never mind that. We don't have to answer that question because conveniently we don't have good data. No one is counting those casualties.
While calculating the death rate, if you choose to include the number of people under treatment in the denominator, you are assuming that all those people in treatment will recover.

If you have to calculate the recovery rate, would you include the people undergoing treatment in the denominator? If yes, India's recovery rate is just 12%. Rest are dead?

That is why you should only include cases where there is an outcome while calculating. Check Worldometer. They calculate based on closed cases only. As of today the death rate stands at 21%. And that includes China, who by every yardstick seems to have under-reported.

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Old 13th April 2020, 15:11   #748
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by V.Narayan View Post
It would be helpful if you can you point me to a list of strategic or large Indian listed companies taken over by foreign buyers through open market operations.
Open market operations is not the operative part here. It is the possibility of FII's / Large corporates to acquire large stakes in strategic sectors.

Aramco has invested 20%. While this is 20% of the larger company moves are afoot to spin this off into another subsidiary. This would be a veiled way of increasing the shareholding.

BP has acquired 49% of Reliance's retail fuel business.

Both the above deals were announced within a week of each other. Looks like someone has tasted blood and wants more.

And he shall have it - more sales / joint ventures have been announced for this year. Watch this space.
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Old 13th April 2020, 15:32   #749
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

I can't understand why people in India are against the lockdown or why people in the US against keeping the economy running. These decisions reflect the basic ideologies or priorities of the respective countries.

In India the organized sector is all very gleeful when asked about their paid vacation privilege time off which usually runs between 30 and 40 days a year + unlimited sick leaves in most cases + casual leaves. Almost all the holidays are converted into long weekends irrespective of which day of the week they fall on. A ton of people call in sick everyday and how many of them are asked to produce a doctor's certificate to validate the sickness? Companies just absorb this loss of productivity as a cost of doing business. Roads/businesses and lives are shut down a few times a year due to festivals, processions, birth/death anniversaries etc and no one is bothered about the economic loss. The unorganized/migrant sector is no different. They take off for months at a time for marriages/deaths/festivals etc and they are all taken back into the workforce with business once again absorbing the loss of productivity. There a dozen different new years, sowing seaons, jayantis, etc etc which are regional in nature and result in further time off which is again absorbed by the business. In a nutshell, in India festivals/health/religion have been, are and always will be on a higher priority than economic needs.

In America, one is on cloud nine when their paid time off is increased from 10 days to 15 days a year after 5 years of service. Sick leaves usually are included in this quota. Anything more than one sick day needs a doctors certificate. I have witnessed cancer patients showing up for work post their chemo sessions. Pregnant women work until the last day and resume after a month. My 75 year old uncle is back on the road 4months after a knee replacement surgery to keep his insurance and business running. Long weekends are designated ones and not throughout the year. There are no unplanned, ad-hoc disruptions to business or economy due to festivals/health or religion. In a nutshell, in America the economic needs have been, are and always will be on a higher priority than festivals/health or religion.

There is no right or wrong about either. But there is always a flip side to every coin. If you don't like it you move but there will be a lot imposed on you elsewhere as well. You can't have the best of both worlds.

Last edited by yd_gli : 13th April 2020 at 15:36.
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Old 13th April 2020, 16:12   #750
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by volkman10 View Post
Toyota Kirloskar Motor gears for 50 percent production with two shifts, post the lock-down.
Currently I care about whether Big Basket, Amazon Now, Grofers etc etc having any plans to gear up or not.
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