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Originally Posted by rdst_1 The figures of 5% or 50% don't make any sense right now as we won't ever know the total number of infected people till the whole world is tested. |
Absolutely correct.
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Originally Posted by rdst_1 Currently that number is 21% and 79%. In the beginning deaths were as low as 10%. This number only pertains to the people who need hospitalization and in reality, those are the people who we actually have to worry about.
So right now, 1 in every 5 people, who is being hospitalized is dying. These numbers are higher for some countries, currently 41% in US and 36% in Italy.
One of the WHO doctors, who is currently serving in Spain, is also a member on Techenclave also confirmed that the numbers look correct. He said that, of all the people who are hospitalized, 20% are dying, 10% recover but with lung damage and 70% recover completely. |
Sir... Normally, I would ask you to cite your sources. But, even taking your numbers from face value, we are saying that we are only measuring those who actually come to the point of requiring healthcare facilities. And even in that subset of patients, there are more recoveries.
Now, if we consider that the vast majority of patients don't even get to the point in the Covid illness where they require a hospital, then we can begin to measure the ROI of a solution that exacts a huge price from literally every person in the country.
Again, no one is watering down the seriousness of the illness for those in the hospital. But, the problem is that too many people are watering down the seriousness of the repercussions of the lockdown as a solution.
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Originally Posted by rdst_1 Having said that, I also agree that it just won't be feasible to continue with a lengthy lockdown as many lives will get lost due to starvation. Huge announcements were made that people will be provided with 3 months ration for free, but the bitter reality is that here in our village, this month's ration has still not arrived and is not gonna come till the 20th. And even then, it will have to be bought with money and not given free as promised.....The second announcement was that all farmers will get the 2000 bucks payment they supposedly get every 4 months immediately. Truth is that many farmers have not even received last years payment and now the PM KISAN website itself is down so no one can check the status.
So, as much as I want fellow Indians to stay at home, the truth is that most of them can't because the government is not able to provide them with either food or money which would have ensured that they stay at home. |
Correct again. Many people talked with such confidence about our PDS. Even I thought that a reliable PDS was our strength. But, the truth is that when you take people out of the workforce, who is going to do the actual work of distributing anything? Even if we argue that essential services are allowed, none of these departments is working at full capacity. Also, the fear of the disease has permeated deep and even those who are being allowed to work are fearful of doing so.
Result = We have woefully inadequate systems to cope with the economic pain.
These are the latest pieces of news as to how the prices of essential food items is shooting up -
- https://www.indiatoday.in/mail-today...148-2020-04-04
- https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...w/75113111.cms
You and I can possibly tolerate these price increases. But, remember that huge swaths of people in our cities cannot tolerate these steep increases. Their current salaries have no room; and many are not even making any money at this point. So, they have to survive on their own meager savings, or on the kindness of people.
My own uncle is stuck by himself in a far off suburb of Chennai. His wife is stuck in Bangalore with his daughter. Thankfully, my uncle is in good health. So, that is one less worry for us. But, he is a deaf and mute person who is prone to violent fits of rage if he does not get enough social opportunities. His 40 year career as a factory worker (for Lucas TVS) provided him with those opportunities. But now, alone at home, he is on thin ice.
So, I video call him once a day to help him decompress.
With the better part of his life spent on the factory floor, he has no domestic skills. Can't cook. Does not even know what to buy to cook a meal. Too late for him to learn now. So, he has to step out of the house to a hole-in-the-wall restaurant near Ambattur bus stop serving bus drivers.
Yesterday, he was signing to me that the price of a simple meal in that hole-in-the-wall place has gone up to Rs. 150!!
Scoff at that number if you wish. But, imagine your household help paying that money for a meal on the salary that you pay her!! Ridiculous does not even begin to cover it. A lockdown is such an elegant sounding solution. If only reality was that elegant!!
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Originally Posted by Thad E Ginathom The only support you have for maybe it should not have been done is measured in number of words. Can you not see the simple truth that, if you keep people apart, they cannot catch diseases from each other? It does not take science, maths or statistics, just a little common sense. |
I don't want to repeat myself, so I will simply copy/paste from my post earlier in this thread.
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Originally Posted by mohansrides First, let us see this article from yesterday. It says that two people in Kerala who showed absolutely no symptoms tested positive for Covid 19. This happened because these two were actually tested. That is a big departure from just three weeks ago when these two would not have even qualified to be tested considering that they are asymptomatic. All of us know that prior to the lockdown plenty of people voluntarily asked to be tested given their travel history. They were asked to go home if they showed no symptoms or very mild symptoms.
Coming back to the present day, the above mentioned two people only got tested because they arrived from the UAE. That is one more criteria they had to fulfill to get tested.
Next, let us take a look at yesterday's news again where 51 ex-Covid patients tested positive again after having been cured of the disease and released from the hospitals. And you yourself have pointed out that Hong Kong is pondering the problem of a second wave of infections.
If we take the above two points in tandem, it begs the following questions... - What really is being achieved by an economy crushing lockdown when we know that there could potentially be tens of thousands of Covid positive, and yet asymptomatic, people who will never be identified because we are not testing every single person in the population? I mean, these people could be spreading the infection even after a lockdown is lifted, could they not?
- What is the assurance that an extended lockdown will eliminate the virus for good considering that it is now coming back in waves, as is the case with South Korea, or even Hong Kong by your own information?
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Also see this link from today's news about recovered patients testing positive again -
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/coro...home-topscroll
In short, we have absolutely no way of saying for sure if a lockdown is going to solve this problem for us because the risk of re-infection is real; plus, the virus could simply wait out the lockdown and then come back firing on all cylinders. In the meantime, we are paying a huge price economically speaking. Now, before you dismiss talks about the economy as prioritizing money over lives, let me assure you that without money there is no way to preserve life anywhere. When we talk about hurting the economy, we are talking about hurting our own purchasing power to buy food, medicines, and a roof over our heads.
Incidentally, from your earlier posts, I take it that you are a pensioner. So, if I may take the liberty, this argument may be more academic for you because you have done your stint and are expected to get your pension irrespective. But, for all of us in the working age, we need to work to take care of our families. Indeed, we need to work to even finance your pension.
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Originally Posted by Thad E Ginathom We are not supposed to talk politics here, but just look at the quality of leadership in, for example, USA and UK. UK, at least backtracked, but probably too late. |
You say no politics and then proffer an opinion, on the sly, about the politics and political leaders of the West. Really?!
Donald Trump is to a lot of Americans what our PM is to us. You may not like President Trump for his much-mocked ways. But, there is no question that he was elected democratically, and that too by what could be termed a landslide. So before we go around posturing that we are somehow more intelligent and more concerned about our citizens than leaderships in the west are of their citizens, I suggest that we think again.
Truth is that there are no perfect answers here. It is a question of what a decision maker, any decision maker, thinks is a greater threat.
In any case, as bad as this pandemic and our response to it is, the silver lining is that we are being put through our paces. In a sense, this is one gigantic drill for the next crisis whenever that hits.
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Originally Posted by vibbs BMC has temporarily shifted 50 OPD patients from KEM hospital to under Hindmata flyover to prevent over crowding. https://mumbaimirror.indiatimes.com/...w/75063707.cms
"Under the flyover". Just let that sink in.
Drastic times need drastic measures. Minus the lockdown? I dont know.
COVID 19 hits people. It also hits the health infrastructure. |
Everyone is reading the news and everyone is aware of the severity of our resources being stretched. No question about that. We need very very aggressive solutions in healthcare to tackle the volume of patients, both Covid and non-Covid. We have to throw every bit of our time and energy in exponentially expanding our healthcare capacity.
But, the point is that prevention by way of shutting ourselves down will only work in the short run. Anything beyond a few weeks is setting the ball rolling for an avalanche of problems that will befall us. There will likely be millions of job losses, and that is just in the organized sector. The unorganized sector will get absolutely pulverized. When these outcomes happen - indeed some of this is already happening - healthcare being stretched will feel like a smaller problem. Also remember that aside from Covid, people have N other health issues for which they have to pay to get care. Every doctor out there will be asked to work for free; if not in full, then at least for some part of their work hours. This will happen. We will be in a world of trouble with a stopped economy where no one is making money.
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Originally Posted by civic-sense This is a lie that has been peddled by the men in suits and has be repeated everywhere by the rest who don't stop one second to ponder over whether it is true or not.
As of today, in Maharashtra when 217 people recovered from the illness, 150 died. That is like 40% of all cases where there was an outcome. You do not die in a day or two or even a week. If you add the numbers who got infected during the last few days to the denominator, you get a death rate worth boasting, but that does not prevent people from dying. |
Sir... The method of measuring death rate as how many people died vs. how many people recovered only happens once an outbreak has run its course. During the outbreak itself, the death rate is only measured as the number of people who have died vs. the total number of infections.
And what of the people who are dying, or who will likely die, due to the lockdown? What are your words of succour to them? Never mind that. We don't have to answer that question because conveniently we don't have good data. No one is counting those casualties.