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View Poll Results: Do you support the lockdown extension?
Yes 299 47.46%
No 244 38.73%
I'm unsure 87 13.81%
Voters: 630. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 14th April 2020, 17:18   #796
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Whatever it is, there is a certain logic to the lockdown. It saves lives, it is cheap to implement and at a time when there is no other solution, this is the best way out. Now, being intelligent people we are going to look at each of the above points (that we've debated countless times here and elsewhere) and suggest alternatives. Sorry, none of those alternatives will sell politically. Only time will tell if Brazil will continue without a lockdown and come out ahead of the rest of us developing nations.

The Lockdown is a simple solution ("simple and wrong" is probably right). We are a nation inured to the miseries of the deprived. We can compare (possibly dubious) statistics all we want and reassure ourselves that a lockdown works for the entire nation. This tantalizing solution will be extended till the pain of this solution is felt by the decision makers and those powerful enough (businesses bleeding money) to lobby the decision makers on to a different path.
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Old 14th April 2020, 17:22   #797
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by poloman View Post
I am getting tired of discussions on this thread. Some guys are repeating the same points the nth time
+100 to this!

I find the arguments of for-lockdown vs anti-lockdowns quite an amusing read at times; it feels as if the policymakers are going to come and view this thread to make their next decision, no! On a realistic note, unfortunately, we have no choice; there was a time when the union government could have been considered very slow or very aggressive on its own; but now most if not all state governments are talking the same language wrt the lockdown (maybe except Kerala?) so clearly the decision is agreed by the majority.

I'd suggest we all stop making the needless and repetitive arguments and try to see if we can add real value to this thread than just arguing the same points. So here's one from my side. A bit of free time and access to data makes it an interesting day, no?


----------------


So the lockdown to my understanding should have two benefits:

1. Reduce the infection rate as social distancing is further enhanced and lesser movement means lesser chances of infection.

2. Provide some breathing space to the government and supporting institutions to scale up across all the necessary capabilities - testing, equipment, and whatnot.

Well, on a realistic note, the infections will definitely not go down instantly; there's a ~14 day incubation period so the infected cases will keep adding up over the next 2 weeks atleast. But then post that, ideally the new infection numbers should start reflecting a downward trend. Rather than looking at actual # of cases, a better option is to look at the doubling trend.

If one looks at the below chart, for India (red line) the doubling rate seems to be more or less consistently around 3-6 days; before the lockdown, during the lockdown and seemingly the extended period of lockdown too!

India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020-corona-calc-2.jpg
Canada, Brazil, Israel - doing good on reducing the doubling rate!
US, UK, Russia - not so good!


India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020-corona-calc-1.jpg
Data table for those who prefer it this way


So a lockdown on its own isn't going to be the solution; there has to be a lot more factors to consider. Testing has to go up tremendously. People have to judiciously follow the lockdown requirements, the lower strata has to be cared for.

Look at Canada, Brazil, (and Israel) - the lines in green. They seem to be doing something right for sure. Here's to hope - that our numbers start reflecting similar stats for the 2 weeks ahead.


Source - https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Attached Files
File Type: xlsx Data for Calculations.xlsx (17.3 KB, 91 views)

Last edited by ninjatalli : 14th April 2020 at 17:36. Reason: Added the calculation sheet for anyone who wishes to see the data
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Old 14th April 2020, 17:34   #798
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

There are are two choices here :

Devil or the Deep Sea.

Take your pick.

Make the argument for devil or the sea. Essentially the result is the same.

I don't understand what the fuss is about?

Its like asking which is a better way to die.

And nobody can see the bigger picture here? Which will change the lives of not only us but the coming generations too.

This Virus is either natural or unnatural.

If its natural - Imagine what havoc these types of viruses can create in the future as they are becoming deadlier with each outbreak.

If its unnatural i.e man made -- its a biological weapon and a war.

Guys keep splitting the hair.

Last edited by BlackPearl : 14th April 2020 at 22:25. Reason: Removed asterisks meaning profane word. Please follow forum rules. Thanks.
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Old 14th April 2020, 18:31   #799
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Things aren't looking too good at the moment!

- 1000 migrants throng Bandra station in Mumbai defying lockdown, demanding permission to return to their native states

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/mass...ckdown-2211695

- India sees sharpest rise in COVID-19 cases with 1,463 reported in last 24 hours
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Old 14th April 2020, 18:32   #800
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Thousands gather at Bandra Railway station in defiance of lockdown.

How is this even possible with everything under lock down?

How much non compliance should be tolerated in the name of "poor and deprived"?

This is putting those people at risk who are religiously adhering to government guidelines.

Last edited by Safety is Param : 14th April 2020 at 18:41.
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Old 14th April 2020, 18:39   #801
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by Safety is Param View Post
Thousands gather at Bandra Railway station in defiance of lockdown.

How is this even possible with everything under lock down?

How much non compliance should be tolerated in the name of "poor and deprived"?

This is putting those people at risk who are religiously adhering to government guidelines.
They are quoting that they were expecting lockdown to be over by today and transport facilities will be available for them to reach home. This points out the anomaly. People are scared and work is not a priority for them, at the moment. Reaching home is..
So if you lift lock down with out proper strategy there will huge out flow of workforce to their villages. So infections are going to go up in villages as well.


In other news India is going to lose a staggering 250B USD to the lock down. People who cried when the growth dipped 0.5 % will be shocked to silence now.

Last edited by poloman : 14th April 2020 at 18:43.
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Old 14th April 2020, 18:53   #802
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by poloman View Post
In other news India is going to lose a staggering 250B USD to the lock down. People who cried when the growth dipped 0.5 % will be shocked to silence now.
Barclays cuts India's GDP forecast to zero citing lockdown extension.

Quote:
For the first time perhaps, India has a zero percent Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecast. Barclays emerging markets research has cut India’s calendar year 2020 GDP forecast to 0.0 percent from 2.5 percent earlier. Barclays has revised down its GDP growth forecast further to 0.0 percent for CY2020 (from 2.5 percent), and to 0.8 percent for FY20-21 from 3.5 percent earlier, Barclays said in a release.
Link
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Old 14th April 2020, 19:10   #803
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by poloman View Post
They are quoting that they were expecting lockdown to be over by today and transport facilities will be available for them to reach home. This points out the anomaly. People are scared and work is not a priority for them, at the moment. Reaching home is..
They actually are scared. A lot of them are daily wage earners with zero savings. This is the informal sector and not all employers are as gracious to make payments even though no work is happening. Plus the migrant laborers stay in very cramped rooms in slums which will get unbearable to live in all day as it gets hotter. I hope we can find a way to pacify them, they are less educated and many times fall prey to rumors like ration getting over / trucks with grains not being able to reach the city, etc so that could be another fear of not getting food from govt.

Last edited by AZT : 14th April 2020 at 19:13.
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Old 14th April 2020, 19:11   #804
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by greenoval View Post
Things aren't looking too good at the moment!

- 1000 migrants throng Bandra station in Mumbai defying lockdown, demanding permission to return to their native states

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/mass...ckdown-2211695

- India sees sharpest rise in COVID-19 cases with 1,463 reported in last 24 hours
A similar protest made the news in Kerala on March 29th "Sudden protest by migrant workers in Kerala over food, accommodation and transport". These people have gathered at Payippad which is a small town from from far away places on foot on this particular day and time. This gathering raised suspicions as it looked like a planned and organised event instigated by someone. The approximate number of people gathered was around 2000 and counting as per news reports on TV. The police have arrested the instigator(s) following this. Since then there are no issues of this nature reported in the state as on date.

Mumbai police should get to the root of this, such a large number of people will not gather at a specific time and place for protest unless it is a co-ordinated event. I do not think this is because they did not know of the extension of lockdown but because they chose to believe other sources.




Last edited by Sankar : 14th April 2020 at 19:14.
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Old 14th April 2020, 19:19   #805
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It's surprising that the crowd was allowed to swell to such an extent.

I believe they didn't start in such large numbers to begin with.

Crowd would have built over time, and its surprising no one noticed it!

And, if they were hoping to catch a train, obviously they wouldn't be empty handed - one more reason to ponder seeing people with luggage moving amid lockdown.

Last edited by Safety is Param : 14th April 2020 at 19:22.
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Old 14th April 2020, 19:34   #806
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by racer_ash View Post
^^ Alright sir. What according to you is the mode by which this pandemic needs to be handled? Could you please elaborate so we can get an idea?.
What do I propose?

Well, we know that the virus is here to stay. That we know for sure. So, the sooner we get comfortable with it, the better for all of us.

So while we are scaling up healthcare and devising quarantine protocols, let us also work to view this virus in perspective. I mean, if we are going to report infections and deaths on a daily basis, let us also...
  • Report the number of people who came up negative in tests and also say why those people were tested in the first place. Let's report that someone who tested positive had hung around with say a 100 people, and that we tested all 100 and got 10 positives. This is already happening now, but without any emphasis on the 90 who tested negative. Let us change that to report both positives and negatives.

  • Report the number of infected people who are not yet in a hospital; and the number of cured people who did NOT need in-patient hospital services during the illness; i.e. those who beat the virus by just staying home and managing the symptoms conservatively.

  • Report Covid deaths by age of patient (for every month and year). But, also report the deaths due to auto accidents, heart disease, diabetes, H1N1, TB, and other major afflictions in our society during the same time periods and for the same age groups.
These three metrics will give us a true risk profile of this virus vis-a-vis the economic cost of any measure that we adopt. It will allow the administration to advise people on reasonable risk and to devise protocols for getting people to self-quarantine.

If someone tests positive then..
  1. They are quarantined (either by self or by force) for 3 weeks. Pass a law that people who break quarantine will face jail time, or a big fine, or both, depending on the severity of the case.

  2. Those who the positives contacted should be intimated to get tested within 48 hours. Those who don't report for testing should be reported in the papers along with a look-out notice. Again jail time or fines or both will apply for absconders beyond 72 hours unless reasonable explanations are provided. Like if the contacted person got hit by a bus, then he or she obviously cannot come to get tested.

  3. Also, mandate that those break quarantine and those that do not report for testing will be denied healthcare services should they need them.

People who test negative are free to go.

Finally, present the risk profile to people and allow them to make their own decisions. Really, this is the best we can do. But, whatever, we do, we HAVE to build a true picture of this virus's risk profile. Else, the paranoia will sink us.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mvadg View Post
.. lockdown. It saves lives, it is cheap to implement....
Sir.... I have seen some simplifications on this thread. But, yours really took my breath away Have you seen these threads on own forum?
  1. https://www.team-bhp.com/forum/shift...l-economy.html

  2. https://www.team-bhp.com/forum/shift...-you-okay.html (As an employee or a boss, what kind of salary cost-cutting are you okay with?)
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Old 14th April 2020, 19:42   #807
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Ever since the lockdown was announced, cops have been facing a lot of flak for wielding their canes indiscriminately.

For a change, Bilaspur police have come up with a soft, witty alternative:

India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020-img_20200414_191827.jpg

Source:Twitter

With today's announcement that lockdown measures will further be tightened till the 20th, do people really have a choice!

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Old 14th April 2020, 19:49   #808
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sankar View Post

Mumbai police should get to the root of this, such a large number of people will not gather at a specific time and place for protest unless it is a co-ordinated event. I do not think this is because they did not know of the extension of lockdown but because they chose to believe other sources.
]
With the ruling party in Maharashtra already shifting the blame to centre for failing to facilitate the journey of migrants back to their native places, I don't think any police investigation will be conducted.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/m.econo...w/75143958.cms
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Old 14th April 2020, 19:52   #809
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

This one really blew my mind. Now ambulances are going to be subjected to increased scrutiny because of guys like these:

https://www.deccanherald.com/amp/sta...ru-825208.html
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Old 14th April 2020, 20:24   #810
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Moderator Note: I have added a poll. Please vote!
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