[lapis_lazuli]

I was wondering, amidst this lock-down, how are you maintaining your diet? Are you eating same, less, more....? I am snacking more, out of boredom, I usually had a 45 minute walking as part of my daily activities which has stopped. I am borderline diabetic and borderline hypertensive too, with minimal maintenance dose medication. My doc had promised to get me off medication if I maintain the schedule. Now, I am missing my walks , and I dread to check my weight. I was maintaining 72 kilos on my 5/8 frame, which was OK BMI. I am worried I would have gained a lot. Let us hear from others. With the extension, I guess it is going to get worse, in terms of food habits!.

[vivek95]

Originally Posted by SmartCat

Moderator Note: I have added a poll. Please vote!

I voted "Yes" as this is the only sensible solution at the moment for most part of our country.

However, for Kerala in particular , my vote would go for the second option in the poll i. e partial lockdown for covid clusters ( with strict sealing of borders ). Its been a week Kerala is witnessing cases in single digits and their model is almost at par with Germany, S. Korea etc. 425 tests per 1 million followed by a distant 289 in Maharashtra.

[karan0009]

I voted for "Yes" as this is the best option seeing the current situation.

Even if lock down is partially lifted, most of the folks will still not go out to retail market, malls, etc. Since there will be not much buyers in the market, better to keep the country in lockdown itself.

[The Rationalist]

This extension should be the last one, if it is extended you will end up killing more people due to economic hardship and other issues. One can’t wait till no more new cases occur in India, that would be utopia. As a Malayalam proverb goes “You can’t burn down the house to kill the rat”. What’s the end game the government is targeting, they are mum on that. Please be transparent and tell the citizens. If you extend the lockdown again people will surely defy that, it may even cause a civil war.

Whenever you lift the lockdown the cases is going to comeback, that’s what I feel. The virus doesn’t read the newspapers or textbooks, as they say in medical school! Road accidents kill 1,50,000 people a year, you can’t say we will stop traffic for ever.

[400notout]

Originally Posted by mohansrides

Finally, present the risk profile to people and allow them to make their own decisions. Really, this is the best we can do. But, whatever, we do, we HAVE to build a true picture of this virus's risk profile. Else, the paranoia will sink us.

Your points seem rational, but rationality is the last thing i would expect from the people usually mobbing our streets.

Yes we live in swarms and in some pockets social distancing is a joke, as at a distance of 6 feet you would find yourself in your neighbours' house.

Just have a look at this report and the scary data which it carries.

To quote

The share of COVID-19 cases in Mumbai is higher in more densely populated wards. Close to 54% of cases are from wards which have a population density of more than 35,000 people per sq.km.

Your points are in good intention and spirit but unfortunately I am sure you know how businesses in this country work.

If the Govt. does not enforce lockdown, employers will continue to ask workers to report to work. I am sure i would be going to office too if the Govt had not made it mandatory otherwise.

I already know of establishments who have not paid employees for the month of March and the rest who have no intention of paying for April. The Govt. is coaxing employers to pay but has mere nudging ever worked?

Crowding is a standard in our cities, so with an infectious disease like this don't be surprised if the whole city takes ill in a matter of days. Even in such stringent orders we have seen people flouting lockdown and taking to the streets when there is practically nothing out there to do other than roam empty streets. Without a lockdown we would certainly have overtaken US effortlessly.

Originally Posted by poloman

They are quoting that they were expecting lockdown to be over by today and transport facilities will be available for them to reach home. This points out the anomaly. People are scared and work is not a priority for them, at the moment. Reaching home is..
So if you lift lock down with out proper strategy there will huge out flow of workforce to their villages. So infections are going to go up in villages as well.

Accurately put. I still feel though that the govt should test them and arrange travel for them to their natives. Its painful to see their plight. Its criminal to make them live here in cramped environments where the disease is spreading, rather let them go to their folks in open rural areas.

[indian21r]

I voted for NO. Social distancing needs to become the new norm. Time for us behave more responsibly in social environments and public places. We need to use this opportunity to actually stand in proper lines/follow queue and maintain discipline.

We are into Real Estate and that industry is gone case over the next 1 year at the least. We have workers sitting idle at the sites getting frustrated and waiting to go their respective places.

21 days was long time (Though I was absolutely sure, it will be extended) for the governments to come-up with a plan. Further they had information from across the globe to take some meaningful steps. Extension was what they chose.

Had the new cases being reported fallen, we could have safely assumed the lock down working. But why are the numbers spiking up in India after 21 days of lockdown? Should we not see the number slowing down by now or does this require a longer timeline. (How did other countries fare in this regard). Are the new cases predominantly the contacts of the existing Covid-19 patients ? If so the spike is understandable. But if it is unconnected people, then maybe we are missing something crucial in the link.

I feel the collateral damage of Covid-19 will be more than damage done by the disease itself. I hope we can recover from this quickly.

[sunilch]

Voted for Option 2: "No. But I support partial lockdown of covid clusters or districts."

Option 1 is good for a limited amount of time. Initial 3 weeks was enough for the same. But that has been carried forward without much thought as it has been presumed to be working.

Option 3 is not feasible. We can't guarantee that our Janta will follow the same - be it the employees, the businessmen or even regular Uncle/Aunty for that matter.

Option 4 - Is that even an option? Is there any country in the world which has gone past Stage 1 and not done a lock-down of some sort?

[Sankar]

My vote would have been yes 3 weeks ago. But now i guess I would vote to close districts/clusters. But wait, I can't say really I do not have the real picture of what is happening on the ground, no data. So I think I should put my faith in the governments (Central and State - both govts are doing great from my pov) and follow their guidelines and keep my senses, eyes, ears open and mouth shut. I don't have a vote here, my thoughts on this are as dynamic as the situation.

[AZT]

Originally Posted by SmartCat

Moderator Note: I have added a poll. Please vote!

I think the Yes answer should be modified to add a date. A lot of people out there would be fine even if the lock down is further extended and they would dilute the poll.

Can we phrase the poll as ' At what point does the cost of staying indoors outweigh the cost of going out ' and then add options so people can be more specific as to how long would they be fine voting Yes. A small / medium business owner whose income is zero but still has to bear his staff salaries and other fixed costs would definitely have a different answer compared to someone working a job that can be done from a laptop.

My vote would have been a hard Yes 3 weeks back because I am able to work from home and less affected but now I would vote to close districts/clusters and resume things.

[racer_ash]

Voted a resounding YES. Given the way things have panned out in the last 3 weeks with junta defying the diktat left right and center, I feel this is the only way forward.

I hope that at the end of this current deadline, I would be able to change my vote to option 2.

[vivek95]

Originally Posted by The Rationalist

This extension should be the last one, if it is extended you will end up killing more people due to economic hardship and other issues. One can’t wait till no more new cases occur in India, that would be utopia. As a Malayalam proverb goes “You can’t burn down the house to kill the rat”. What’s the end game the government is targeting, they are mum on that. Please be transparent and tell the citizens. If you extend the lockdown again people will surely defy that, it may even cause a civil war.

Whenever you lift the lockdown the cases is going to comeback, that’s what I feel. The virus doesn’t read the newspapers or textbooks, as they say in medical school! Road accidents kill 1,50,000 people a year, you can’t say we will stop traffic for ever.

Oh thank you Sir, there is atleast one more Doctor in this forum who echoes my thoughts. This virus is going to remain no matter what. We don't have to wait for a specific antiviral or a vaccine to come up to lift this lockdown. Once the curve flattens, we should flatten the curve of our paranoia as well. Your analogy of RTA deaths is very apt. And this is exactly the reason why I feel Kerala is in a position to lift this lockdown, well say right after April 20.

P.S - your handle name suits your thoughts Sir ! The Rationalist !

[Miyata]

Voted for "Yes. I fully support the current lockdown plan." In a country where basic hygiene is so very questionable - without my knowledge I had a spot of pan spit out on my pristine white shirt in one of the "good neighbourhoods" of Bangalore! - it'd work better if lockdown is extended!

However, as others have also pointed out, there is going to be this compensatory effect kicking in at the end of lockdown - all the pent up frustrations, energy, demands, needs, wants, desires, etc will emerge very strong in very short time -

> Barber shops will be overloaded for a while

> New and old car demand will spike (up) for a while for that 1st car, 2nd car, etc.

> Orders for food-takeaway at restaurants will spike. Many restaurateurs may be ill prepared for that to happen - lesser staff, lesser raw materials to begin with with.

> Driving out and about will spike for a while - traffic would be lot more frustrating and chaotic till it gets back to its previous chaotic times!

> Doctor clinics will be packed to the gills - dentists, pediatricians, orthos, etc - everyone's past and current problems will come forth in a very short duration to get addressed.

> Textiles that have been on the back burner will suddenly spike up - the commercial street and chickpet area in Bangalore will see footfalls like it they are a Macy's or JC Penny on Black-Friday sale!

[splitsecond]

Originally Posted by mohansrides

.

The real questions to be asked here are the same ones that I have repeated. Do we know for sure that the lockdown will save more lives in the long run? We don't know for sure.

Yes it will, atleast thats what all the governments are trying to do, remove maximum number of covid cases from circulation during lockdown, quaratine high risk contacts and isolate hotspots, once done,, slowly open up districts with less number of cases with social distancing and other restrictions. But the big question is, will this work?that depends on state/central govt.

Given the virus's re-emergence risks, is a lockdown even a solution in the short-run? We don't know that for sure either. And yet, we have taken the hard decision of clamming down hard on sectors of the economy that actually drive finances that allow us to function. Be advised that services industries and administrative professions being open for business, either physically or virtually is only in the short run. With the basic wealth creators like manufacturing being largely shut, we are on very thin ice. There was talk of re-opening agriculture. But, I have not heard anything definite yet.

Now the second option, running economy without any lock down, IT WONT WORK. Once the virus starts to spread like wild fire no one is going to turn up for work, econmy will cripple and late lockdown at that time wont work either because virus would have spread to masses.

So current lockdown is our best and only shot.

[Chetan_Rao]

I didn't identify with a specific option, so I'll hold my vote for the moment.

What I do think, is we cannot work under the broad presumption that we're an unruly mob as a country, and cannot be trusted to act responsibly, and use that to justify lockdowns indefinitely. That may be true (plenty of evidence), and I won't argue otherwise, but the 'herding is the only option' assumption isn't practically enforceable beyond a point, like it or not.

Lockdowns are necessary and critical short-term measures, and I mean short-term w.r.t. the pandemic timeline, which will probably stretch a couple years including widespread vaccine availability.

There will be a point on that timeline, and it isn't very far away, where we'll need to lay down a marker for our preparations (which I presume is the intent of lockdown everywhere), say it's 'good enough to start with, all things considered' and start the 'active' containment phase (targeted testing/isolation/treatment) and aggressively ramp up capacity (esp. healthcare) in parallel, while life moves in a restricted manner for the next year (maybe two) and vaccine research/development/trial continues.

What a lot of us also aren't considering in this moment, is we're living on material stockpiles that were the running surplus of pre-lockdown production, and while some stuff may still be in production, it's not at full capacity and we're obviously consuming faster than we're restocking (at all levels), which isn't sustainable beyond a point either. Re-stocking doesn't work without underlying stock. Preventive & maintenance care medicines are the most critical example I can refer to.

There's obviously a whole ecosystem of labor and material consumables involved in these activities. The full scope of 'essential', once we account for everything needed to keep the ecosystem running, will blow our minds. To quote just one example, a fellow BHP-ian had to get 'essential service' permission to manufacture and supply industrial bearings for maintenance to a milk product packaging unit (which is already categorized an essential service).

We feel safe locked into our homes, I'm no different, but we can't wish away the aspect that the act of staying at home itself is reducing our capacity to continue doing it, every single day. What happens when the supply crunch for groceries, medicines and other consumables reaches the production point? Matter of when, not if.

I intentionally kept socio-economic aspects out of it, because all that does is shift the 'when' point for the majority of us. The part of our population that can actually afford to stay in indefinitely is negligible overall.

We'll need to open the door and step out at some point, and co-exist with the risk because what we need to mitigate that risk, whether material objects (consumables) or effort (healthcare) cannot be produced with a majority of us sitting safely at home. That point is fast approaching.

Scared? Sure. Would I rather stay at home safe? Yup. How long will that be possible? Not very, unfortunately.

[hareshjethwani]

Originally Posted by The Rationalist

This extension should be the last one, if it is extended you will end up killing more people due to economic hardship and other issues. One can’t wait till no more new cases occur in India, that would be utopia. As a Malayalam proverb goes “You can’t burn down the house to kill the rat”. What’s the end game the government is targeting, they are mum on that. Please be transparent and tell the citizens. If you extend the lockdown again people will surely defy that, it may even cause a civil war.

Completely agree with you on this. The only difference is that the COVID-19 has reports of the number of deaths but we will never have a count of the number of people who die of economic hardships/other issues which were born out of the result of a lockdown !