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View Poll Results: Do you support the lockdown extension?
Yes 299 47.46%
No 244 38.73%
I'm unsure 87 13.81%
Voters: 630. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 20th April 2020, 15:50   #1006
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

The really worrying aspect of the lockdown is that except for Rahul Bajaj, there aren't many noticeable voices in the public realm about the economic costs of the measure.

The impact to the economy is being discussed in abstractions, like this article about RBI making it easy to lend, or about the budget gap. But, there is hardly any discussion about the nitty gritties of day to day jobs; like that barber who has run out of cash or that hotel owner who wakes up everyday wondering how he is going to get through the day. Even relaxations of the lockdown, allowing for some economic activity, are being discussed purely from the perspective of providing services to people rather than with an eye on the economy.

The move to protect industry from predatory foreign investors is welcome; but China is already protesting citing WTO rules. In fact, the one country that is laughing all the way to the bank is China. They preserved their economic might through this crisis and are going aggressively after many economic institutions around the world. Despite global voices raised against them with regards to their lack of transparency, they have not gone on the backfoot at all.

Other than China, the US is the only country that is looking better positioned every passing day. Painful as it is in the short run, they are well on their way to herd immunity. By contrast, if our lockdown persists, we are risking huge economic losses (which means losses of real lives and not just of money). One immediate loss I can think of is the damage to our hard-built IT and ITES sectors because of a confluence of factors -

  • The US would have to solve high unemployment.

  • More power in the hands of US state and local governments make it possible for them to reduce the decision time in terms of incentivizing businesses to invest locally.

  • Most importantly, they would have some level of herd immunity and would be more amenable to reopening businesses. Simultaneously, big US-based companies will be faced with employees in their captive offices in India who are either under lockdown, or whose movements are severely restricted (due to their own fear of coming to work, or due to inadequate facilities if they are working from home - no firewalls or high bandwidth connections or ability to enforce client NDAs).
In short, we are looking at huge on-shoring possibilities in the US.

Last edited by mohansrides : 20th April 2020 at 16:08.
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Old 20th April 2020, 16:31   #1007
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by dark.knight View Post
Big Basket delivers in crates, plastic ones. Better to go to a local grocer any day, carrying our own cover and washing the produce at home in hot water.

Does washing fruits & vegetables in hot water help? How hot? Any tests done for this? Any guidelines?
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Old 20th April 2020, 16:50   #1008
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Apart from Kerala, we have Goa now which is Covid free. They have 0 active cases among the people tested which is good. It would interesting to see what they plan to do with the shutdown.

https://news.rediff.com/commentary/2...1329f1004a31f1

But there is a follow-up from the opposition party questioning the statistics.
https://news.rediff.com/commentary/2...89cd72843c83bb


Quote:
He said the BJP government in the state has claimed that 7,000 staff completed surveying 3.66 lakh houses in 24 hours, adding that "these statistics raise doubts on the authenticity of the health survey

Last edited by m8002? : 20th April 2020 at 16:54.
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Old 20th April 2020, 16:51   #1009
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

We have just 33% of TBHPians worried about an extended lockdown (as calculated today, leaving aside fence-sitters). Earlier, I had suggested that if there were a large percentage of people who were unaffected by the SARS-COV2, they would demand that the lockdown be lifted and they be allowed to go on with their lives as usual. Here is a paper that talks about the AR (Asymptomatic Rate) and how it could be used to make policy decisions.
DATA GAPS AND THE POLICY RESPONSE TO THE NOVEL CORONAVIRUS
James H. Stock

Quote:
Policy outcomes hinge critically on a key unknown parameter, the fraction of infected who are asymptomatic, and on the current rates of infected and recovered in the population. Evidence on the asymptomatic rate is scanty, however it could readily be estimated by randomized testing.
Quote:
This note lays out the basic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemiological model of contagion, with a target audience of economists who want a framework for understanding the effects of social distancing and containment policies on the evolution of contagion and interactions with the economy. A key parameter, the asymptomatic rate (the fraction of the infected that are not tested under current guidelines), is not well estimated in the literature because tests for the coronavirus have been targeted at the sick and vulnerable, however it could be estimated by random sampling of the population. In this simple model, different policies that yield the same transmission rate β have the same health outcomes but can have very different economic costs. Thus, one way to frame the economics of shutdown policy is as finding the most efficient policies to achieve a given β, then determining the path of β that trades off the economic cost against the cost of excess lives lost by overwhelming the health care system.
Attached Thumbnails
India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020-asymptomatic.jpg  

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Old 20th April 2020, 17:02   #1010
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by yd_gli View Post
What do you expect when people refuse to sit in their homes. Have you seen images of people in Mumbai buses today? Please have a look and you'll have your answer.
You mean these homes/ workshops/ offices, whatever we would like to call.

India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020-11.png

Almost all of my known Government staff are trying to find one excuse or the other to Not to go the office as mandated from today. Why- Because they can afford to live happily at home. And we sitting at home are trying to find the fault with some poor guys flocking to the buses. Obviously, they are not going for Mumbai city tour. Hunger can make you do a lot of things, have some sympathy for the needy.

Unfortunately, no one can ask the Government about their action plan. There are no channels or direct interviews. When we started this lockdown, we assumed that by keeping movement restricted, we can come over this. Now with almost nil movement, we are seeing daily highs and are talking about June. We can slow the progress of this disease and have succeeded also, but it's hard to believe that there will be no case on 3rd May or 3rd June or ..
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Old 20th April 2020, 17:11   #1011
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by carboy View Post
Does washing fruits & vegetables in hot water help? How hot? Any tests done for this? Any guidelines?
Hot enough that it feels hot yet doesn't sting your skin. More importantly the vegetable should be at room temperature as well and not cold or just off the fridge, else cleaning in room temperature water is good enough. Using a pressure spray gun connected to a mini geyser is best as force is required to clean veggies as well. The hot water also helps wipe away dish washing soap residue in vessels when cleaning them.

You wont find specialized journals for such things but rest assured its the most neutral, sanitization process for veggies. Some will say soak it in Dettol but its lunacy since Dettol will percolate into the veggie.
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Old 20th April 2020, 17:25   #1012
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by Turbanator View Post
have some sympathy for the needy.
Wow, quick to jump onto the bandwagon! I have nothing against the needy. If you thought I was expecting the needy to sit at home hungry then you're on the wrong train.



My point was in-directly aimed at the government not being able to enforce distancing and basic rules even in such dire times. Do they need to have so many in one bus? Can they not instruct the driver/conductor to enforce distancing and run additional buses? Or is that considered not having sympathy for needy either?



https://static.toiimg.com/thumb/imgs...4/75245214.jpg

Last edited by yd_gli : 20th April 2020 at 17:31.
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Old 20th April 2020, 17:44   #1013
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Voted for last option : Can't say / Not sure / Not enough data to support or reject the strategy.

What simply baffles me beyond comprehension is number of tests. In times what we can call "Once In a Century", each and every nation must be on a war-footing to tackle difficult, uncertain and may I add, unforeseen situations. Its now abunduntly clear that testing is a key as crucial as social distancing. This is where we have fallen short. Not to say that I dont support lockdown, but I expected massive testing and rather aggressive isolation procedures in pneultimate phase of first lockdown while entering second. Lack of such testing is going to prove inimical especially once we see light being shed on partial lifting. There are debacles, but I deem it not fit to pen up everything on this thread. Government as usual should have done better in the first lockdown itself, but at the same time, being a critic in retrospection from my home's comfort is easy. Lets just hope that we can start economy, let it do the initial idling, before as a nation we all get moving.

Right now, there doesn't seem to be an end to lockdown even on 3rd May and I am gradually preparing myself mentally for a round three of lockdown. Given our vast population, I fear we might go either ways, very successful vis-a-vis several developed nations (with robust healthcare infrastructure) or suffer from massive spread of infection.

Last edited by aaggoswami : 20th April 2020 at 17:46.
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Old 20th April 2020, 18:27   #1014
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) has concluded that 80% of people with coronavirus in India are asymptomatic and this is a big cause of concern as testing everyone is impossible. Dr. Gangakhedkar also mentions that his team will be in a position to evaluate the peak of this pandemic in India by the second week of May. Could mean lockdown 3 coming up?

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/coro...tist-t-2214799
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Old 20th April 2020, 18:54   #1015
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by greenoval View Post
Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) has concluded that 80% of people with coronavirus in India are asymptomatic and this is a big cause of concern as testing everyone is impossible.
Isn't that a silver lining? Could it be that due to some unknown reason, the virus doesn't spread much in India, or even if someone gets it they are most likely asymptomatic or not likely to end up with serious problems. That might make a case for not extending the lockdown
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Old 20th April 2020, 18:59   #1016
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by KL01toKA03 View Post
Isn't that a silver lining? Could it be that due to some unknown reason, the virus doesn't spread much in India, or even if someone gets it they are most likely asymptomatic or not likely to end up with serious problems. That might make a case for not extending the lockdown
Ofcourse it is! The lockdown extension was an apprehension due to ICMR needing till mid May to have more clarity.
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Old 20th April 2020, 19:24   #1017
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by greenoval View Post
Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) has concluded that 80% of people with coronavirus in India are asymptomatic

I don't think that's unique to India. It's almost the same everywhere. They found 50 positive people in a Boston homeless shelter who were walking around without knowing it.

Last edited by carboy : 20th April 2020 at 19:25.
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Old 20th April 2020, 20:12   #1018
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Mumbai has new source of spreaders. Over 50 Journalists tested positive for the virus.

https://scroll.in/latest/959732/covi...al-corporation

In another news, Bengal numbers seem to raising questions at the central level as well.

"PM, Amit Shah Must Explain": Mamata Banerjee On COVID-19 Teams In Bengal.
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/mama...xplain-2215036
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Old 20th April 2020, 21:52   #1019
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by KL01toKA03 View Post
Isn't that a silver lining? Could it be that due to some unknown reason, the virus doesn't spread much in India, or even if someone gets it they are most likely asymptomatic or not likely to end up with serious problems. That might make a case for not extending the lockdown
Isn't that more concerning? Say one person in a building started showing symptoms. That building can be placed under quarantine and spread can be controlled. But if no one shows any symptoms, won't they walk around and spread it everywhere? There are multiple articles online which reports that asymptomatic people can be carriers. Testing can help identify such carriers and prevent further spread. Isn't that why all are asking to rapidly expand testing?

Or am I missing something?
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Old 20th April 2020, 21:57   #1020
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by locusjag View Post
I have a question; the emergency passes that people are using are only for crossing districts right?

We live in Chennai and my uncle's brain tumor has made a comeback ... I need to drive them to Apollo cancer specialty hospital in Royapettah for getting admitted. The tumor removal surgery will happen next.

Technically, I will be venturing from Chengalpet district (Tambaram area) into Chennai district (Royapettah). Will a pass be necessary for us?
An update from me - I applied for an e-pass online on the 17th of April and in just 3 hours after applying, I received it for 3 days (i.e., until the 19th). I used it well for ferrying family and materials to the hospital and back.

Today I applied for a fresh e-pass and received it the same day and the pass is applicable until the 23rd, when my uncle will be discharged. His surgery happened on the 18th and he is recovering well so far.

The e-pass gives me total peace of mind while driving through the numerous police barricades in the city's roads. I am happy with this e-service being provided to us.
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