[Turbanator]

Watch this guy with a journalist so close and without any mask. There are reports of some journalists getting the Covid. Perhaps he should be more vigilant.

https://www.ndtv.com/video/news/news...andemic-546185

[msdivy]

Originally Posted by lapis_lazuli

is the lock-down showing distinct positive results, at a local and national level?

The main purpose of Lockdown 1.0 was buying time to ramp up health care facilities like beds, PPE, tests and in parallel cut the growth of new cases. While the beds have seen an increase, other facilities were yet to be ramped up. The downside of this phase was out of 21 days, 10 days were spent in confusion between Govts on what should be done, how should it be done and who should do. During this initial hiccups, social distancing went for a toss. But still, the 1.0 version helped us in not going USA way where the growth was exponential.

The primary goal of Lockdown 2.0 was to bring down the active cases and to have all active cases under quarantine. Unfortunately, the new cases have been steady & not coming down. The April 20th date was a distraction. For that D-day, state govts had issued multiple statements on relaxing the lockdown but after strict admonishing by central govt, the lockdown will be strictly followed till 3rd May.

When the active cases start falling, the lockdown will be successful.

There are a few unanswered questions:
1) Can the active cases be really brought down to zero?
2) What happens after lockdown, will we see controlled growth or exponential growth of new cases?
3) How to handle asymptotic individuals?

[antz.bin]

I was reading the news here in Pune and this is what I found.

"In the containment zone, shops selling essential commodities such as groceries, dairy, vegetables and fruits will be open from 10 am to noon every day for the public," he added.

Source:
https://punemirror.indiatimes.com/pu...campaign=cppst

It was already 4 hours (7 AM to 11 AM) earlier in my area and now this. I think it is not Social Distancing that the Pune Police wants to enforce, their secret masterplan is to trigger herd immunity instead by letting everyone get infected and then sending them home to spread the infection to their families. Or else, instead of reducing the hours of business for essentials, they would have increased it.

This is what the official report says. The rumour is that no shops will open for the next 5 days.

With the earlier 4-hour limit, the lines would grow to 18-20 people at all the shops in my locality. Now with the 2-hour limit, it will surely increase to 30odd if not more. There are 3 grocery stores, 2 dairy shops and 2 vegetable shops which open in my locality. These shops serve at least ~2000 families.

For restocking essentials, I last ventured out 10 days back. Even if I consider myself an average resident (I am not, I see my neighbours strolling out multiple times in a day), that's an average of 200 people visiting the 2 vegetable shops every day. 100 at each one @ 50 customers/hour. I don't see how that is going to work out without people climbing over each other to grab stuff. If the aforementioned rumour is right, the herd immunity process will definitely start in Pune from the 25th April.

I just cannot understand how this is not going to be a disastrous decision.

I am about to run out so will have to do the errand run again tomorrow. I don't want to turn into a statistic and will need all the luck.

[KL01toKA03]

Originally Posted by GeneralJazz

Isn't that more concerning? Say one person in a building started showing symptoms. That building can be placed under quarantine and spread can be controlled. But if no one shows any symptoms, won't they walk around and spread it everywhere?

It may not be all that concerning if everyone gets it and not many show symptoms. Of those showing symptoms, an even smaller percentage would end up in a life threatening situation. Every life is important, no questions about that. However, if it reaches a point where perfectly healthy people (farmers, labourers, daily wage earners, businesspeople) think about ending their lives because of a lack of income due to this lockdown, governments will have to think about ending the lockdown. Livelihoods are as important as lives.

[mohansrides]

Originally Posted by mohansrides

The really worrying aspect of the lockdown is that except for Rahul Bajaj, there aren't many noticeable voices in the public realm about the economic costs of the measure.

The impact to the economy is being discussed in abstractions, like this article about RBI making it easy to lend, or about the budget gap. But, there is hardly any discussion about the nitty gritties of day to day jobs; like that barber who has run out of cash or that hotel owner who wakes up everyday wondering how he is going to get through the day. Even relaxations of the lockdown, allowing for some economic activity, are being discussed purely from the perspective of providing services to people rather than with an eye on the economy.

The move to protect industry from predatory foreign investors is welcome; but China is already protesting citing WTO rules. In fact, the one country that is laughing all the way to the bank is China. They preserved their economic might through this crisis and are going aggressively after many economic institutions around the world. Despite global voices raised against them with regards to their lack of transparency, they have not gone on the backfoot at all.

Other than China, the US is the only country that is looking better positioned every passing day. Painful as it is in the short run, they are well on their way to herd immunity. By contrast, if our lockdown persists, we are risking huge economic losses (which means losses of real lives and not just of money). One immediate loss I can think of is the damage to our hard-built IT and ITES sectors because of a confluence of factors -

• The US would have to solve high unemployment.
  
  
• More power in the hands of US state and local governments make it possible for them to reduce the decision time in terms of incentivizing businesses to invest locally.
  
  
• Most importantly, they would have some level of herd immunity and would be more amenable to reopening businesses. Simultaneously, big US-based companies will be faced with employees in their captive offices in India who are either under lockdown, or whose movements are severely restricted (due to their own fear of coming to work, or due to inadequate facilities if they are working from home - no firewalls or high bandwidth connections or ability to enforce client NDAs).

In short, we are looking at huge on-shoring possibilities in the US.

Don’t like quoting myself. But, shoot, I said this yesterday and today there is this freakin headline.

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/coro...home-topscroll

[dark.knight]

Volunteering for the RWA is quite a micro simulation of what Governments are doing, we have problems on a daily basis irrespective of all guidelines given.

*There is the "kids have to play" section of people, who cant see beyond that, irrespective of possibilities of contamination or damage to property due to unsupervised surroundings.

*There is the "what about us" section of people, explainingntheir unique family quirks, needing to go to common areas to hang clothes, needing access to rec facilities etc.

*Residents are more irritable than ever and dripping water from clothes hung out to dry is eliciting complaints. Given the nature of the world today, I hardly think these are priorities.

*No one understands the concept of "no garbage bin out the main door", they want their home to be pristine and sanitary only.

*Biomedical waste disposal (pads, diapers, catheters if any) are merged sometimes, and improperly packed 99% of the time including just putting them as is, without any paper packing.

*Absolutely no order in the recreational walks, some even make mini get-togethers in the common area.

It's a mess, we are straightening things out without unnecessary strictness. Hope this thing is over by 3rd, we cant contain them beyond that.

[srishiva]

Originally Posted by mohansrides

Don’t like quoting myself. But, shoot, I said this yesterday and today there is this freakin headline.

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/coro...home-topscroll

The main reason for off-shoring was and still will be price. Big impact will be on jobs that can be automated. It was already happening and will now be on the fast track.

Not everything being done in India is just back end processing. Most MNCs will need such automation to happen from people in India too.

Job growth in US is needed more for blue-collared workers. That should impact China more than us. Again that might not happen too.

At the end of it, stock price and cost of employee will still rule capitalist tendencies.

[luvDriving]

Just saw the local news channel here in Pune and it says that the bed capacity in the 3 hospitals designated for corona patients has been reached. The government is trying to find more hospitals or it will start taking over large halls and schools. Now 25 paramedics have tested positive for the virus.

I really doubt if schools will begin anytime soon. Even if they do then it will be online education I believe. Certainly not before August (just a guess). My daughter's school has put up some assignments on the school web-site just to keep kids occupied and in touch with the curriculum.

[Turbanator]

Now this NEWS. I guess we are either importing the complete kits from China or some major chemicals. Wonder how does Countries like Germany and South Korea managed?

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/coro...home-topscroll

[srishiva]

Originally Posted by Turbanator

Now this NEWS. I guess we are either importing the complete kits from China or some major chemicals. Wonder how does Countries like Germany and South Korea managed?

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/coro...home-topscroll

This is for rapid antibody test kits. UK had already lost millions buying these kits from China. They are not reliable and I have been quoting this news for 1 week !
Its reported that it might cause more harm doing these tests and sending people to work based on false positives.

Germany and South Korea are doing actual tests on isolating virus.

[rdst_1]

This is what an Indian WHO epidemiologist who we are in touch with at another forum has to say about the rapid test kits.

Antibody tests ( referred to as rapid test in Indian media) ARE NEVER TO BE USED FOR ANY CLINICAL JUDGEMENT. THEY ARE JUST EPIDEMIOLOGY TOOLS.

This was in relation to a question I asked on how to ascertain 'recovery' in people who have been asymptomatic. This doctor has himself tested positive in IgM tests while testing negative 6 times in the RT-PCR tests. He goes on to say that there won't be a test more sensitive than RT-PCR other than quantitative assay testing which he deemed as not possible during an epidemic

[Turbanator]

All valid points that many of us have been discussing here.


https://www.cnbctv18.com/auto/rajiv-...uy-5739251.htm

[rdst_1]

Yes. Even allowing electricians and mechanics to start services while the spare parts shops are closed or letting construction activities resume when the material supply shops are closed is just an eye wash. They might be able to take care of very small issues but that would be it.

[fhdowntheline]

Originally Posted by rdst_1

Yes. Even allowing electricians and mechanics to start services while the spare parts shops are closed or letting construction activities resume when the material supply shops are closed is just an eye wash. They might be able to take care of very small issues but that would be it.

Tell me. My poor Polo GT refuses to start and displays an “Insp” “Ignition” message. The battery is fine apparently.

[m8002?]

Is this the light at the end of the lockdown tunnel?
https://www.rediff.com/news/report/c...n/20200421.htm

They have opened up mobile charging shops, electrical shops and flour mills. Hopefully appliance, computer service and car/bike services are also gradually allowed to open.