[splitsecond]

Originally Posted by carboy

What is the advantage of removal of lockdown after the peak? Peak doesn't man that it won't go higher a couple of weeks after the lockdown is lifted. It just means that because of the lockdown, the curve has flattened. And whenever the lockdown is lifted (be it 1st may or 1st june), it will start unflattening again. The virus isn't going to say that these guys waited for the peak to remove lockdown, so I should retire now.

I can't figure out how so many people here seem to think that a lockdown enforced peak is a permanent peak which will be obeyed by the virus.

Well this has been answered serveral times in this thread, that once the covid cases are reduced to managable numbers lock down can be removed in phased manner, isolating remaining patients, locking down hotzones, social distancing, wearing mask in public places etc.
If these measures are implemented correctly spread will reduce considerably post lock down. It wont peak again.

[joslicx]

Originally Posted by splitsecond

Well this has been answered serveral times in this thread, that once the covid cases are reduced to managable numbers lock down can be removed in phased manner, isolating remaining patients, locking down hotzones, social distancing, wearing mask in public places etc.
If these measures are implemented correctly spread will reduce considerably post lock down. It wont peak again.

This is wishful thinking at best. Even tiny country states like Singapore are not able to contain the spread and are seeing increase. What gives confidence that we won't see new peaks post lifting of restrictions?

[carboy]

Originally Posted by splitsecond

Well this has been answered serveral times in this thread, that once the covid cases are reduced to managable numbers lock down can be removed in phased manner, isolating remaining patients, locking down hotzones, social distancing, wearing mask in public places etc.
If these measures are implemented correctly spread will reduce considerably post lock down. It wont peak again.

How so? It's spreading even when in lockdown why won't it it spread in a more relaxed environment.

[yd_gli]

Originally Posted by carboy

What is the advantage of removal of lockdown after the peak? Peak doesn't man that it won't go higher a couple of weeks after the lockdown is lifted. It just means that because of the lockdown, the curve has flattened. And whenever the lockdown is lifted (be it 1st may or 1st june), it will start unflattening again. The virus isn't going to say that these guys waited for the peak to remove lockdown, so I should retire now.

I can't figure out how so many people here seem to think that a lockdown enforced peak is a permanent peak which will be obeyed by the virus.

By your logic we should've had no lockdown at all. Let the diesease run rampant, achieve herd immunity/vaccine (whichever comes first) and be done with it. Which is what a few countries are hoping for.

The reason I mentioned peak is because you don't lift your foot of the brakes when you're still on the ramp up since you don't know how far you are to the top. If you have ever worked with runaway chain reactions or resonating structures, it is a similar phenomenon. You wait for the rate to hit a crest and hit the downward trend before pulling your foot of the brakes. Yes, you'll have a second and third peak but the cumulative sum will be lower than if you never applied the brakes in the first place. Will we have to go in for a second lockdown? Probably but you'll have different degrees of success depending on where on the initial downward curve you pulled the brakes off.

Or in the worse case the disease ramps up a second time at the same rate and in this case we know the duration of on-off cycles for the lockdown to keep things manageable.

Bottom line is that you need to know lockdown intensity/duration vs. time to peak case numbers/rate to determine course of future actions. Pulling off the brakes midway on the ramp up means you never know where the inflection point is.

Again, what do I know. I think the virus is listening to us!

[carboy]

Originally Posted by yd_gli

By your logic we should've had no lockdown at all. Let the diesease run rampant, achieve herd immunity/vaccine (whichever comes first) and be done with it. Which is what a few countries are hoping for.

The lockdown was to gear up the hospitals, supplies etc.

Originally Posted by yd_gli

The reason I mentioned peak is because you don't lift your foot of the brakes when you're still on the ramp up since you don't know how far you are to the top.

Bad analogy. The ramp's peak here is artificially created by enforcing a lockdown.

Originally Posted by yd_gli

If you have ever worked with runaway chain reactions or resonating structures, it is a similar phenomenon.

The external circumstances before & after the chain reaction hits a peak are the same. That's not the case here. The circumstances before the peak is lockdown. The circumstances after the peak is being suggested as no lockdown. i.e. the ramp analogy & the chain reaction analogy and the resonating structure analogy are bad analogies. They don't fit.


A better argument may be that summer will be in it's peak in May & hence the virus may lose activity in peak summer, so keep the lockdown till then (just to be clear, I am not making that argument). I will give that argument more credence than believing that virus will retire or become less active once we hit a lockdown enforced peak.

[Behemoth]

If anyone wants to see a live comparison between a lockdown condition and effect of no lockdown, we can compare India and Turkey. Both countries were sub 500 cases on Mar 20th. Turkey chose not to go for any lockdown and they are now at 95000+ cases where India is currently at 20,000. So it has given India some breathing space inspite Of a much larger population.

[yd_gli]

Originally Posted by carboy

Bad analogy. The ramp's peak here is artificially created by enforcing a lockdown.

The natural peak is at herd immunity or worse the entire population which is the no/curtailed lockdown option I mentioned you favoring on with your logic. The artificial peak still needs to be achieved via a lockdown which is not the case as yet and needs to be done.

Originally Posted by carboy

The external circumstances before & after the chain reaction hits a peak are the same.

Really? With your argument, most nuclear reactors etc would not be feasible.

Originally Posted by carboy

I will give that argument more credence than believing that virus will retire or become less active once we hit a lockdown enforced peak.

When did I mention that the virus is less potent post lockdown?

[Cyborg]

There is something which is almost upon us which will throw social distancing, crowd gatherings etc completely out of the window and perhaps give a major setback to our fight against Covid19. It’s imperative the lockdown is extended till the end of May.

India Today news channel says our PM is having a meeting with the CM’s on 27th May to discuss the lockdown situation. Either the lockdown will be extended or implemented on a 12-15 hour basis with all other rules in place like social distancing, transport limitations, crowd gathering etc.

Let’s see what happens, all will be clear by the end of the month.

https://www.thehindu.com/news/cities...le31400889.ece

Cheers

[carboy]

Originally Posted by Cyborg

It’s imperative the lockdown is extended till the end of May.

And I ask again, what will happen on 1st of June to not make it imperative to extend the lockdown till end of June?

Originally Posted by yd_gli

The natural peak is at herd immunity or worse the entire population which is the no/curtailed lockdown option I mentioned you favoring on with your logic. The artificial peak still needs to be achieved via a lockdown which is not the case as yet and needs to be done.

What is the point of the artificial peak?

Originally Posted by yd_gli

Really? With your argument, most nuclear reactors etc would not be feasible.

Not really - as I said it's not equivalent.

Originally Posted by yd_gli

When did I mention that the virus is less potent post lockdown?

Then the lockdown shouldn't ever be lifted till we achieve herd immunity either naturally or through a vaccine.

[vb-saan]

Originally Posted by yd_gli

Singapore and Hokkaido are both examples that a removal of lockdown results in a second wave of infections.

Just a small correction there. Singapore was not in a lockdown to remove it. Yes, the new wave of increasing numbers have resulted in more control measures.

[splitsecond]

Originally Posted by joslicx

This is wishful thinking at best. Even tiny country states like Singapore are not able to contain the spread and are seeing increase. What gives confidence that we won't see new peaks post lifting of restrictions?

Yes it all depends on how well its implemented, In singapore mask was not mandatory(this is big),malls and theaters were open there.
This virus is very contagious in confined air conditioned space like shopping malls,saloons,resturants etc. Post lockdown in india how to run these kind of business will be a challange.

Originally Posted by carboy

How so? It's spreading even when in lockdown why won't it it spread in a more relaxed environment.

Its not spreading in lock down as suggested by daily new cases. Its just that india started testing high numbers only after lockdown, the majority of the cases you see are pre lockdown/family members spread and from high risk area,Hospitals.

[LobsterB]

Originally Posted by Behemoth

If anyone wants to see a live comparison between a lockdown condition and effect of no lockdown, we can compare India and Turkey. Both countries were sub 500 cases on Mar 20th. Turkey chose not to go for any lockdown and they are now at 95000+ cases where India is currently at 20,000. So it has given India some breathing space inspite Of a much larger population.

Well, Turkey has close to 4.75 times number of patients and close to 3.5 times number of deaths (2259). No two countries are really comparable, but looks like their hospitals didn't get overwhelmed yet and they could manage without a lockdown so far !?

[momsonlydriver]

Originally Posted by carboy

So only those who can afford private cars or cabs should be allowed to travel. The ones who probably have enough resources to go without pay for a few months should be allowed to travel but others shouldn't?

Well, the transport system such as autos, buses, trains and trams are really dangerous at this point. Imagine having to squeeze and sit in the autos. There is so much chances of contamination. In case of buses, per passenger per row concept could have been applied but it will never work as the bus drivers always try to maximize their profit by getting more and more passengers.

Well, I'm sure every household has a two wheeler to move around. We can't help face the fact that we live in a 3rd world country where needs are not yet fulfilled by many. That's one ugly truth.

Our economy will definitely suffer and we have no choice. Businesses are facing loss - out of fear - firms are removing labours - their daily wage is being taken away - immense poverty in the society.

We as fortunate people can only help by donating to the ones who are in need. Home workers or be it car cleaners who cannot travel, atleast pay their monthly via paytm or google pay without the work being actually done. Our small ways can help a majority. Don't see them as their free earning, do it out of chairty.

[rdst_1]

https://m.economictimes.com/news/com...w/75281927.cms

As the above article states -

India Inc views the government directives on resumption of industrial activity that hold company directors and management accountable for any employee testing positive for Covid-19 and ask for penal action, as both unnecessarily harsh and impractical. Industry also reckons these rules may disincetivise resumption.

[Miyata]

Originally Posted by Rshrey22

What would be the status of educational institutions? Will they be opened any time soon?

I don't think anyone has clarity on those aspects. It appears though that educational institutions, bars, pubs, amusement parks, etc could be among the last to see the light at the end of this lockdown tunnel.

I thought most educational inst. were continuing with classes online? Of course the practicals part will not be practical...that apart!