[carboy]

Originally Posted by momsonlydriver

Well, I'm sure every household has a two wheeler to move around

In reality, 66% of households in India have no vehicle whatsoever. And those are the ones who need to get around more than you or me. I have enough resources to lock myself at home till end of the year if need be.

[Rshrey22]

Originally Posted by Miyata

I don't think anyone has clarity on those aspects. It appears though that educational institutions, bars, pubs, amusement parks, etc could be among the last to see the light at the end of this lockdown tunnel.

I thought most educational inst. were continuing with classes online? Of course the practicals part will not be practical...that apart!

True but these online classes are being used to just rush syllabus rather than teaching the topic properly.

[msdivy]

Originally Posted by Rshrey22

What would be the status of educational institutions? Will they be opened any time soon? Being a medical undergrad student, this lockdown is making us suffer a lot!

School/college/students being a sensitive subject in society and with overcautious parents, it will be the last thing that will open. The academic year will be shorter with the reduced syllabus. The time of reopening depends entirely on what happens after the lockdown is lifted. In the best case, school/college will open at regular times. In the likely case, there will be a 2-month delay. In the worst case, the delay can be up to 6 months.

Originally Posted by carboy

A better argument may be that summer will be in it's peak in May & hence the virus may lose activity in peak summer, so keep the lockdown till then (just to be clear, I am not making that argument). I will give that argument more credence than believing that virus will retire or become less active once we hit a lockdown enforced peak.

The primary modes of spread of corona are,

1) When an infected* person sneezes or coughs, the droplets are sprayed in air, and if those droplets make it to mouth or nose of another person either directly or indirectly.

2) When an infected* person touches their face and then shake hand, with another person and if the other person touches their face.

(*infected implies both symptomatic & asymptomatic)

There are chances that virus might enter & infect the body.

Contracting via surfaces like handrails, toilet-seat, packages are plausible but unlikely. The key is physical proximity with an infected person. Other factors like weather etc play a remote role.

Originally Posted by Cyborg

Meanwhile a good ordinance issued by the government. I wish they would have included our Police force also in this, they deserve it too. Can you imagine the frustration they feel when they cannot even defend themselves against attacks. I cannot think of a more demotivating situation for our Police force.

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/stor...784-2020-04-22

Take care and stay safe!

That's great news. The medical fraternity had been fighting for protection laws for ages. We have seen plenty of instances where the patient's family vandalized the hospital, man-handle the doctors. Eventually, corona made the law happen

[carboy]

Originally Posted by msdivy

Other factors like weather etc play a remote role.

Why do you think flu season happens every year in Winter in the colder countries & not in summer?

Read this - http://sitn.hms.harvard.edu/flash/20...kes-in-winter/ - the flu virus transmits better in low temperatures & low humidity.

And as for the Covid19 virus - https://in.news.yahoo.com/sunlight-d...200745675.html

Preliminary results from government lab experiments show that the coronavirus does not survive long in high temperatures and high humidity, and is quickly destroyed by sunlight, providing evidence from controlled tests of what scientists believed — but had not yet proved — to be true.

[civic-sense]

Like it or not we are in for the long haul. This virus is not going to go away after a 5 week lockdown. There will be many more lockdowns as the government will not be able to handle a boom in the number of patients. In the end we will have a quarter of the population wiped out, families broken, businesses gone broke, etc. Slow the virus and we would be a tad better off.

[msdivy]

Originally Posted by carboy

Read this - http://sitn.hms.harvard.edu/flash/20...kes-in-winter/ - the flu virus transmits better in low temperatures & low humidity.

Out of three mentioned in the paper, only one hypothesis was tested (which is the effect of temperature). The other two (less sunlight, physical proximity) were not tested. So the result is inconclusive.

And as for the Covid19 virus - https://in.news.yahoo.com/sunlight-d...200745675.html

That is a known fact. Ideal temperature for the Corona virus is 7~8 degrees celsius. As the temperature goes higher, its survival rates fall. But like I mentioned, infection via surface is less likely and physical proximity with infection via droplets after coughing, sneezing or hand-shake is the most likey way of getting infected.

BTW, Mumbai is hot & humid. It has the highest number of cases (over 3,000) for any city in India.

[carboy]

Originally Posted by msdivy

Out of three mentioned in the paper, only one hypothesis was tested (which is the effect of temperature). The other two (less sunlight, physical proximity) were not tested. So the result is inconclusive.

Your point was that weather doesn't play a big role. It does - that's what the article shows. Not sure if you read through the article.

Even during the Spanish flu, it was seen that patients who were treated just outside the hospital in the streets (because of overcrowding of hospitals) fared better than those treated inside.

Originally Posted by msdivy

BTW, Mumbai is hot & humid. It has the highest number of cases (over 3,000) for any city in India.

- 3000 is a very tiny number for the population of Bombay.

- The whole thing started in Feb when it was not summer yet. It started being hot only around mid of March.

- India, overall, has not been much affected by the virus as compared to colder countries.

Originally Posted by civic-sense

In the end we will have a quarter of the population wiped out

Because of the virus or because of poverty & hunger?

[Chetan_Rao]

Let me preface the whole thing with the bit I put below in quotes because there is no single definition of lockdown as applied to our current predicament, in this thread or outside, and being a Data Governance professional, it irks me daily arguing terms that don't mean the same thing to everyone in the room.

Whatever we do from here on, we need to realize and accept that the old 'normal' is gone, and the new 'normal' includes restrictions on movement, public assembly and a host of other things as part of day-to-day life for the foreseeable future. Removing the lockdown as it exists now, does NOT mean going back to unrestricted living. That option no longer exists, so please read further with this context in mind.

Primary purpose of lockdown was about managing the when aspect of community spread (not if), making sure we bought enough time to ramp up healthcare facilities and reinforce our essential supplies chain, avoiding a situation where demand outstripped supply right out the gate and overwhelmed our resources.

It never was a matter of if, it still isn't and never will be, though we're getting dangerously close to adopting a 'lockdown is the solution' mindset, if not already there. Waiting is not an indefinite option, both because we don't have a timeline for this, and also because it's impractical to expect a country of 1.3 billion, with a large list of economic and other factors, to ramp up healthcare availability beyond a reasonable point, however long we try, or wait.

Rainy season will soon be upon us down South, and if one is paranoid about going out now, imagine the paranoia when a solid chunk of people around us have common cold and associated symptoms, which often can't be differentiated from COVID-19 symptoms.

Ironically, a 'total' lockdown, the sort we are in now, will hamper ramp-up and ongoing supply mgmt. efforts because we need people and equipment to do these things. A lot of us, directly or indirectly, are tied into these efforts in ways we may not even realize. Is an IT Products/Services organization essential if it supplies and maintains infrastructure for a medical organization researching potential solutions to the pandemic? If yes, what about organizations/suppliers the IT organization then depends on to actually be productive themselves? It's just one example, the possibilities are endless.

Allowing essential services in isolation does not work, because they're in turn dependent on goods, services and people that may not be directly labeled essential. We need to be cautious that in the 'here & now' zeal of waiting things out, we aren't hampering our readiness for when waiting will no longer be an option in our available choices.

[civic-sense]

Originally Posted by carboy

Even during the Spanish flu, it was seen that patients who were treated just outside the hospital in the streets (because of overcrowding of hospitals) fared better than those treated inside.

So you just have to give the patient a hot water bath to cure him? Normal body temperature is 37 degrees, which is higher than the ambient temperatures at most places. Ambient temperature helps when the virus is outside the host. But leaving the patient in the sun will not.

Because of the virus or because of poverty & hunger?

Death due to the virus will far outnumber poverty and hunger.

[carboy]

Originally Posted by civic-sense

Death due to the virus will far outnumber poverty and hunger.

Where did you get 25% of population dead due to virus? The death is supposed to be around 2%. And I think that's also too high. I think it will be less than 1%.

Originally Posted by civic-sense

But leaving the patient in the sun will not.

May be Vitamin D then. Spanish flu patients treated in the open fared better than those treated inside the hospital.

[sunilch]

Originally Posted by carboy

Where did you get 25% of population dead due to virus? The death is supposed to be around 2%. And I think that's also too high. I think it will be less than 1%.


May be Vitamin D then. Spanish flu patients treated in the open fared better than those treated inside the hospital.

Originally Posted by civic-sense

Like it or not we are in for the long haul. This virus is not going to go away after a 5 week lockdown. There will be many more lockdowns as the government will not be able to handle a boom in the number of patients. In the end we will have a quarter of the population wiped out, families broken, businesses gone broke, etc. Slow the virus and we would be a tad better off.

Let us only look at actual numbers for now. Even though these are global numbers only and hence country specific details will vary a lot, this is a fair point of reference rather than making it a guessing game between 1% to 25%.


As of now, total number of cases detected globally: 2,592,373.
As of now, total number of deaths reported due to the virus: 181,065.

That translates to approx. 7%.

This will for sure be different for each country due to different reporting standards and also due to different population dynamics. So for India:

As of now, total number of cases detected: 20,471.
As of now, total number of deaths reported due to the virus: 652.

That translates to approx. 3.2%

This is based on numbers taken from worldometers.info just now.

Additionally this % is what is calculated out of the number of people who have tested +ve. Not everyone will test +ve (I hope so).

[carboy]

Originally Posted by sunilch

As of now, total number of cases detected globally: 2,592,373.
As of now, total number of deaths reported due to the virus: 181,065.
That translates to approx. 3.2%

But everyone who gets infected doesn't get himself tested. Many people have no symptoms to mild symptoms. They may not even go to a doctor. So the denominator is likely much higher than 2592373.
Anyway, the 25% death is so wildly off, it's not even worth discussing.

[V.Narayan]

Originally Posted by carboy

But everyone who gets infected doesn't get himself tested. Many people have no symptoms to mild symptoms. They may not even go to a doctor. So the denominator is likely much higher than 2592373.
Anyway, the 25% death is so wildly off, it's not even worth discussing.

Agree. Probably much higher by a factor of several times. Maybe even 10X.

[joslicx]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

Agree. Probably much higher by a factor of several times. Maybe even 10X.

That's also what Dr Jay Bhattacharya also opined in this study

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/17/healt...udy/index.html

Basically the denominator is an unknown, and is understood to be understated by a big factor.

[msdivy]

Originally Posted by carboy

Your point was that weather doesn't play a big role. It does - that's what the article shows.

Originally Posted by carboy

May be Vitamin D then.

Is it the weather or Vit D? Weather doesn't help in immunity but Vitamin D does.

The paper you have quoted proves one hypothesis with experiments which is - "The influenza virus may survive better in colder, drier climates, and therefore be able to infect more people".

It doesn't disprove the other 2 hypotheses. No experiments conducted to prove or disprove these. Hence these may be factors too.

* the darkness (i.e. lack of Vitamin D and melatonin) and cold of winter weaken our immune systems, making us more susceptible to the virus.

* flu peaks in winter because people spend more time indoors, with the windows closed, breathing each other's air

Originally Posted by carboy

- 3000 is a very tiny number for the population of Bombay.

But the lockdown condition across all megacities in India is same. But Mumbai despite having high humidity is shown higher numbers than cities with lower humidity.

- India, overall, has not been much affected by the virus as compared to colder countries.

India has low numbers compared to other countries due to the force social distancing technique called 'lockdown'. If the weather was a factor, then places will cooler climates would have more corona cases than places with warm climates within India. But there is no such correlation.

With all conditions being constant, the weather is a factor in the spread. But conditions in practical situations cannot be constant. Spread by physical proximity far outweighs weather factor.