[mohansrides]

Finally. I mean, FINALLY. It is about time.

Instead of talking in abstract economic terms like 'recession', or 'contraction', and 'depression', here is someone from the UN (the same org of which WHO is also a part) coming out and talking about the economic fallout in more lucid terms.

"...While dealing with a Covid-19 pandemic, we are also on the brink of a hunger pandemic," David Beasley told the UN's security council. "There is also a real danger that more people could potentially die from the economic impact of Covid-19 than from the virus itself..."

David Beasley is the Executive Director of the World Food Programme of the UN. The quote above is from an article on CNN titled - "Coronavirus pandemic will cause global famines of 'biblical proportions,' UN warns"

Originally Posted by rdst_1

https://m.economictimes.com/news/com...w/75281927.cms

As the above article states -

India Inc views the government directives on resumption of industrial activity that hold company directors and management accountable for any employee testing positive for Covid-19 and ask for penal action, as both unnecessarily harsh and impractical. Industry also reckons these rules may disincetivise resumption.

This is absolutely preposterous!!

So far, my disagreement has been about the economic fallout of just the lockdown. And even there I will freely admit that the government is in a tough position with respect to choices in responding to this massive health crisis. I will also admit that a lockdown is an effective move, albeit in the short term, to deal with Covid-19's rate of transmission.

But, if the government is going to move ahead with these directives about penalising businesses for the virus, then the government will remove all doubt in people's minds that the administration has no grasp of basic economic realities.

I mean, the connection between livelihoods and lives should not be that hard to grasp. And how on earth are businesses responsible for a virus that they did not create?

Pretty soon everyone will have the virus. What they will also have is no money to help them tide over these tough times. Be sick, or be broke, or better still...be both!! That seems to be the theme for 2020.

[kiku007]

How is the effectiveness of the lockdown measures objectively measured?

Could someone please direct me to any official data modelling to show that without the current measures this is where India could have been at this point in time vs. current actuals?

[AirbusCapt]

Will almost all of India catch Covid? Yes.

Will most of us recover? Yes over 95%

Who will die? Mainly people over 75 and comorbid conditions.

Will we have a recession? Yes. The recovery will be slow and painful, following a U graph rather than a V shape.

Will we have a hunger problem? Yes. People on daily wages, farm hands will face hunger problems, depends on how long can the government feed them for free. People who can mantain lifestyle for the next 18/24 months without income will survive, rest will slide lower down the socio-economic totem pole.

Can the government do anything different? May be not. Their hands are tied. Even if the lockdown is lifted, expect many mini lockdowns due varying death figures, for the next 18/36 months. The covid has now mutated to 30 strains, 18 are brand new.

[V.Narayan]

Genuine question -- Does any one on the forum have hard facts with regard to news circulating on WA that employers will be held responsible if any employee who contracts Covid-19 and the employer will face penal action under the disaster management act. Would those who are knowledgeable or are from the legal profession please share what they know.

[Red Liner]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

Genuine question -- Does any one on the forum have hard facts with regard to news circulating on WA that employers will be held responsible if any employee who contracts Covid-19 and the employer will face penal action under the disaster management act. Would those who are knowledgeable or are from the legal profession please share what they know.

I saw a news bulletin where Mr Javadekar specifically addressed this and said employers will not be held responsible for their employees testing positive.

However, it is better to wait for an official order.

[Turbanator]

Originally Posted by kiku007

data modelling to show that without the current measures this is where India could have been at this point in time vs. current actuals?

Lockdown has definitely checked the spread but for how long will be anybody guess. If we are able to restrict transmission between affected hotspots and rest of the places, we can come better and all these days will be helpful. However, if people are able to leave hotspots by any ways to cleaner areas, it will be all waste.

It will be all hypothetical but this may help you

https://twitter.com/ShamikaRavi/stat...52576255586304

Since the start of this lockdown, some guys in our society have taken the task of providing meals to struck up migrants. Initial days were very hectic as there were lot of labourers/ struck up people. Gradually, some of these guys got some ration or even shifted to some of the temporary sheets provided by the Government.

But with each passing day in Lockdown-2, things are getting difficult for some of the people who appears to have a roof but sadly limited food. This video is from Yesterday from Dundahera area of Gurgaon where mostly working people live.

In the words of the guy who goes out daily-

The things are getting grave as we move ahead in the lockdown 2.0. The desperation in people is increasing. Lack of preferred food, freedom to move around and no earnings to buy things. The frustration is clearly seen on the faces, body language or verbal communication. No one is bothered about social distancing when it comes to food. It's getting impossible to control people in a queue. Today has been really a rough day and I can sense that 3rd May is still far away. By the strength of God and well wishers of the community, initiative would not stop to provide help wherever needed. At every distribution my heart goes out for those who want to eat a meal yet can't see themselves standing in the queues. No way to reach them until the time break them down

[am1m]

At least this is coming from someone with medical credentials:

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/stor...917-2020-04-22

"Richard Horton, editor-in-chief of the world's leading medical journal The Lancet, has advised India to not hasten the exit strategy and observe a minimum 10-week lockdown to beat Covid-19."

""And what is the guarantee that there will not be a resurgence of Covid-19 after 10 weeks? To this Horton said, "The coronavirus won't spread then because very few people will still have the infection. At the end of 10 weeks, there will be a very low level of infection to cause a mass spread if we go back to a normal routine with precautions. Testing and contract tracing are necessary to maintain the efficacy of lockdown.""


Personally, am against extending the complete nation-wide lockdown beyond May 3. I think districts where there have been no cases reported for some time should be opened as much as possible (NOT for life as normal though).

But even he emphasizes: "Testing and contract tracing are necessary to maintain the efficacy of lockdown."


Too many people in the public (and it seems in the administration too unfortunately) seem to think just extending nation-wide lockdown forever without using that time wisely will solve everything. And like a few discerning members have pointed out a few times, our country's interpretation of a lockdown is much stricter than what most countries mean when they talk about 'extending the lockdown'.

[ValarMorghulis]

So many proponents of different theories but we clearly have two groups here.
First group: Advocates we stay in, lockdown should be continued as of now. Letting the public mingle will only cause the cases to soar. Sounds reasonable.

Second group: Advocates the lockdown will bring more doom (economic aspect) than respite. Lockdown should be eased off and people allowed to continue with their routine else the fallout in near future due to hunger and starvation will overshadow the disease. Sounds reasonable too.

Now my question to both the groups (full disclosure I was in the first one, but now I'm divided).
What's the solution? None of us know that, I guess, but try?

What if you open the lockdown and a surge of cases happen? How do we tackle that?
What if we don't open the lockdown and eventually we (the general public) run out of food/ essentials? Can we afford a riot?

This is a genuine question. If you wish to throw some shadow or a sprinkle of snark, please ignore this question.

Personally I have no clue. I was supportive of the lockdown 1. Partial to lockdown 2 but this sin't a long term solution. We really can't afford a shut country by any means. People will slowly lose their patience and sanity (hunger and starvation considering).


So, what's the way out, in your opinion? The solution?

[am1m]

Originally Posted by ValarMorghulis

What's the solution? None of us know that, I guess, but try?

As you say, there is no one solution, and like you say, this is just my opinion (I am not a doctor/administrator, or really that much in touch with socioeconomic realities of people outside my circle).

But as a citizen, who is also affected (albeit very slightly when compared to so many other unfortunate citizens) negatively by this lockdown, I think I'd like:

*Numbers- lock me down in my house by all means, but please tell me why. How many cases are there in my ward/district, how many cases over the past 14/28 days? If there are no new cases, why am I still in lockdown?

*Action from state governments - each state is different, each district has a different scenario. Could the state governments take action based on their understanding of the situation at home? Instead of taking a decision and then changing it? And then reinstating it in a diluted form? Really all I'm saying is let the states that have done a good job open up. Why punish the whole class because some students haven't done their homework? (I don't mean to trivialize the situation, but this is the only analogy I can think of for what seems to be happening.) Anyway state and district borders will be sealed for non-essential travel.

*Let the action be driven by medical reasoning - didn't the Karnataka government appoint a panel of experts? Weren't they all doctors? Didn't they say 'there was no medical reason to extend the lockdown beyond the 21st?'

*If we're lathi charging the poor people who are breaking lockdown restrictions, how about the same for politicians and political families who did the same thing? Don't just show the poor what force is and how serious we are about lockdown, show everyone!

*All states have identified containment zones. Understandably that is not perfect or all-encompassing. But can we go ahead and relax (NOT go back to normal life) restrictions outside of those? Understandably there WILL be a surge of new cases as soon as restrictions are lifted even partially. That's going to happen whenever we lift restrictions.

[msdivy]

Originally Posted by ValarMorghulis

First group: Advocates we stay in, lockdown should be continued as of now. Letting the public mingle will only cause the cases to soar. Sounds reasonable.

Few questions:
1) When the lockdown is to be lifted? Is it based on date, or total active cases number or based on growth rate behaviour?
2) When the lockdown is lifted, won't the corona cases take off? How that number will be contained?

[Turbanator]

For the guys in favour of the opening, I see a small hope. Just like the commoners, most states may run out of funds soon. This is what few are doing

https://indianexpress.com/article/ci...shops-6373119/

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/stor...562-2020-04-22

The only practical solution that will not make earlier efforts wasted seems to be a continuation of lock down but restricted to affected hotspots/ zones. They can do Block vice (voting blocks) perhaps add adjoining blocks where there are patients, definitely not shutting complete districts. Keep Public transport off and no interstate movements.

To take care of outstation labour, benefits like ration and grant should be Adhaar based instead of Ration card. Government needs to spend aggressively on new projects - roads, rails or even small houses.

[aaggoswami]

Originally Posted by Turbanator

For the guys in favour of the opening, I see a small hope. Just like the commoners, most states may run out of funds soon. ...and no interstate movements.

States are running out of funds, here are two other links : 1, 2.

Gujarat has borrowed Rs. 2,100 Cr. at 7.5% interest rate. By the end of April, probably Gujarat will need to borrow anywhere between Rs. 4600-5000 Cr. for salaries, pensions and other expenses.

Kerala has seen 82% loss in its Gross State Domestic Product as compared to previous year and this was during first phase of lockdown that ended on April 14.

I am looking forward to some resumption of commercial activities while keeping public transport completely shut down for around two weeks after May 3, 2020. Also, given the fact that revenues from fuel could be crucial for government, some steps to restart economy can be expected, amid extension of lockdown for regions that are worst hit.

[srishiva]

I feel that states will run out of money and then the centre will control everything Since GST, states are having to beg for their money, money for natural disasters etc. And now they only support you to donate to central funds for the pandemic :(

Coming to lockdown, we should have at least had a very good plan to take care of daily wage workers. Unless you take care of them, you cant decide on extending lock down. Dont we have enough resources just to do that ?

If the lockdown period is also spent fighting things in ad hoc manner, what is the hope later for actually managing the big spurt in numbers ?

[scorpio2107]

Just sharing an update from Kannur in Kerala which now has the largest number of cases in Kerala(61) and is under "triple lockdown":

We recently ordered some groceries on Swiggy and after about half an hour we got a call from the deleivery executive asking us to come to our nearby railway crossing to collect the groceries. Apparently the police had sealed of the railway crossing so now each time we buy groceries we will have to travel around one kilometre to pick them up. The road that is blocked is also the one that connects us to all the hospitals as well as the hypermarket.

Attaching a photo of the crossing:


This has just increased the complexity of the problem. What could have been home delivered with zero contact has now turned into us taking out the car and travelling almost one km to pick up groceries while in contact with the delivery guy. I'm all for the lockdown but barricades like this just add to the problem.

[JayKis]

Originally Posted by ValarMorghulis

So many proponents of different theories but we clearly have two groups here.
First group: Advocates we stay in, lockdown should be continued as of now. Letting the public mingle will only cause the cases to soar. Sounds reasonable.

Second group: Advocates the lockdown will bring more doom (economic aspect) than respite. Lockdown should be eased off and people allowed to continue with their routine else the fallout in near future due to hunger and starvation will overshadow the disease. Sounds reasonable too.

So, what's the way out, in your opinion? The solution?

Even though the question is binary and demands a binary answer, the real answer is Fuzzy.

Believe, the least riskiest thing to do in the current circumstances is to have a Lock down. This is also the path of the least resistance in terms of using the government machinery to control the epidemic.

Firstly, we are not in full lock down. Groceries, Vegetables, Milk and Medicines are not in lock down.

Secondly, agriculture and allied sectors along with shops of agricultural machinery, its spare parts including its supply chain and repairs and shops for truck repairs on highways can remain open to facilitate transportation of farm produce.

If the govt can keep the agriculture and the distribution running, this should be the most effective way to tackle the virus.

There are people who advocate that lack of economic activity might kill you in the longer run but that comes with the caveat that one/one's loved ones should be alive to do that economic activity in the future! With 20% death rate based on total deaths to total recovered ratio (going by figures available officially thou it has been classified to less than 5%), it sounds tricky to let people maintain social distancing and go to work. A few countries did try that approach initially (Singapore) but is back to lock down days. Believe, this is a car crash kind of scenario. The first thing is to get out alive and then only worry about having a car to go to work!

There is also a high chance that people are saddled with debt and with the lack of economic activity is unable to service that debt. This is also partly due to the fact that a culture of taking more debt without adequate provisioning has resulted in less cash in hand for any eventuality, be it with People or Organisations.

The thought is that government will most probably do a staggered lock down based on the industry's need in the social realm. Travel, Hospitality, Sports look a distant dream now.