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View Poll Results: Do you support the lockdown extension?
Yes 299 47.46%
No 244 38.73%
I'm unsure 87 13.81%
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Old 26th April 2020, 13:54   #1171
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Indore collector has also hinted/suggested that we still need more days of lockdown to contain the virus. He said that if we open the lockdown then we will be all the efforts so far will go in vain.
With MH and few other states also saying that, they need more days of lockdown, it looks inevitable now.

We have some what flattened the curve with a month long lockdown, but still the number of cases are increasing day by day. So I am not sure till when we can go ahead with this lockdown strategy.
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Old 26th April 2020, 13:55   #1172
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by Engine_Roars View Post
I was in support of the lock down so far however I don't want it to be extended any further . I would rather prefer to open the country with few conditions of course otherwise we are creating bigger & more than one demons to deal with one enemy. The mortality rate is on the lower sides & we would end up killing more people then the virus itself if this lock down is extended. People will die of hunger, depression, other ailments because they could not get the required medical attention, so on and so forth.
The mortality rate being brandished about is 2-3% but looking at the deceased to the recovered ratio in India at the moment, it is 826/6005 = 14%

To be honest, yet to hear about any people who really died of hunger so far!

The problem with advising people of upper age bracket to stay at home and the younger ones to roam around is that in India the older ones stay with younger ones and then we will end up in a situation similar to Italy!

Rest of the stuff, do agree on.

Maybe the state govts can classify each ward into Red, Amber and Green zone with current set of lock down rules in Red, a less stringent set of lock down rules applicable in Amber and very relaxed rules (albeit social distancing) in the green zones. But think implementing this will be a nightmare.

Last edited by JayKis : 26th April 2020 at 13:56.
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Old 26th April 2020, 14:05   #1173
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by Storm2.0 View Post
No one is talking about extending the lockdown further. Except states where situation is serious eg Maharashtra.
If the lockdown is lifted at once it will be catastrophic.
I'm a doctor who can work, I can stay afloat in this kind of situation. Even if the country is locked down, I can manage for few years even without a job. That may be the situation for many on an elite forum like Team-bhp. That's not the case of majority of 130 crore Indians. I can just act like this doesn't affect me, let others suffer. My family has come up from such poor backgrounds and I know how many of my relatives struggle with their lives.

I very well know there is no fool proof method as I'm an Intensive care specialist, but all I want to know is what have you planned for? Have you trained enough doctors to manage ventilators, how may ventilators have been readied, what's the situation with Personal Protection Equipment (PPE), what's the stock of essential foods that our country has, how long will you lock down guest workers (I don't like to call them migrant workers, for we all are migrants somewhere ahead of the time line) as without money they can't run long.

One of my acquaintance in Delhi told a upsetting thing, he was approached reluctantly by a 20 year old young man when he had gone to buy some groceries, he asked him whether he will buy him a ₹10 biscuit. He then realised few more were there who were all in dire needs, he bought few stuff for 6 more persons. He gave ₹20 to a woman who just asked a packet of bread, that shop had run out of bread! Delhi as far I know is a metroplis, I’m terrified to think about the hinterland.

You feel if lockdown is lifted it is going to be catastrophic, you will learn what the real catastrophe is in the coming months.

Last edited by vb-san : 26th April 2020 at 14:12. Reason: Quoted post edited
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Old 26th April 2020, 14:08   #1174
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by JayKis View Post
..To be honest, yet to hear about any people who really died of hunger so far!.
Really? Do these qualify as dying of hunger?
https://www.indiatoday.in/india/stor...297-2020-04-21

https://www.newindianexpress.com/sta...n-2124948.html
I am asking because, the quote from the first article is - "....Prima facie, it seems she died either due to electrolyte imbalance, exhaustion or dehydration....". And the second article says, "......Telangana police believe Logesh might have died of a heart attack caused by dehydration and exhaustion......."

Last edited by mohansrides : 26th April 2020 at 14:09.
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Old 26th April 2020, 14:12   #1175
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

I was in full support of this lockdown but now looking at the huge chunk of asymptomatic positive patients first hand who are flooding the hospitals resulting in shortage of beds/denial of immediate care to non-Covid patients who are actually critical, I would want the Government to mandatorily keep all the hospitals running in the first place and start lifting the lockdown phase wise as soon as possible. Last 6 Covid-19 positive patients (back to back) that I encountered yesterday were all asymptomatic.
India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020-screenshot_20200426135552__01.jpg


Read the above news. Contrary to the headlines, I would be honestly concerned if 70-80% were infact having symptoms and were ending up being critical. It's actually good so many people are experiencing it as yet another flu. Let's begin an experiment, face this virus head on as we now have enough evidence that 70-80% are not showing any symptoms. Scale up the testing rigorously and let the young individuals move freely by practicing social distancing measures and wearing masks. We can't wait to see that day when there is a spike in death of non-covid patients than Covid-19 deaths.
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Old 26th April 2020, 14:13   #1176
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

I dont know if it has been discussed earlier or not.

There has been lots of data analytics based prediction models developed all around the world for predicting the outcome of COVID-19 and its eventual end.

One such model is this. developed by a Singapore based university.

Although such models are not 100% correct or error-proof, it might atleast give a direction on the expected outcome. Perhaps, governments around the world, and indeed, Indian Government must already be consulting data scientists to understand the pandemic progression from data analytics point of view. Ofcourse data modelling assumes a lots of things beyond control (like a super spreader, or sudden spike after release of lockdown and so on).

The SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model developed by Singapore university of technology and design throws some interesting insights. Here are some predictions for :

1) World
India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020-01-world-163463.jpg

2) USA
India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020-02-usa-163464.jpg

3) Italy
India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020-03-italy-163465.jpg

and finally

4) India
India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020-04-163466.jpg

Going purely by the above data model, it seems that the worst for India is already over and we can only go downhill as far as the number of cases per day is concerned, provided same conditions as of today are met in future.

In that case, if government is taking help from data scientists and if they do come up with such model, then it would be prudent to think that extending the lockdown by another 2-3 weeks will take us more closer to the finish line and from then on its will be a situation where we would only have to manage some couple of hundreds cases per day which would be manageable.

Comments?

Last edited by vb-san : 26th April 2020 at 14:20. Reason: Photo orientation - re-uploaded
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Old 26th April 2020, 14:28   #1177
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Covid-19 diaries

Sharing an incident that highlights the sheer apathy, inhumanity and utter stupidity exhibited by civic authorities and the general public alike. I will not divulge much to maintain confidentiality.

A Covid-19 stable patient gets discharged from our hospital after a 7 day stay and testing negative twice. You all know Mumbai metropolitan region has 7-8 municipal corporation limits within. This patient travels in ambulance from one corporation area to another and despite all his valid reports, was stopped by police and refused by his society members to let him inside the building. All this because the said locality is under this holy program called "sealdown" / containment. Finally officials decide to put him in quarantine centre for 14 days, God knows by what logic Meanwhile they had the audacity to question us how did we discharge the patient in just 7 days thereby interfering in our domain and questioning a Doctor's/ critical care chief's expertise and judgement ( My senior ).

So basically, some people in the administration out there are totally brainless who blow things completely out of proportion in the name of lockdown and sealdown. The general public takes pleasure only in banging thalis, lighting diyas without harbouring any real feelings of appreciation or showing humanity.

--Dr. Vivek
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Old 26th April 2020, 14:53   #1178
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by vivek95 View Post
Covid-19 diaries
So basically, some people in the administration out there are totally brainless who blow things completely out of proportion in the name of lockdown and sealdown. The general public takes pleasure only in banging thalis, lighting diyas without harbouring any real feelings of appreciation or showing humanity.

--Dr. Vivek
Completely agree with you doc. Every person in the administration has their own version of the lockdown.
A similar incident yesterday when I was coming back from the cremation ground ( relatives death) which was unavoidable. I was stopped by the cops and asked the usual questions for which they told me to show proof ! Knowing things, I had the death certificate copy in hand which I showed them, which clearly mentioned the cause of death. They have the audacity to question the certificate. After an argument of around 10 minutes I finally had to call the surgeon who was a known person and make him speak to them. They let me off after that.
Now comes the best part !
They ask me for some money(giving the reason that they are risking their life's staying on the road) for which I gave them a earful and left.
I respect the cops for what they are doing but not at the expense of harassing the commuters !
After banging thalis, lighting diyas now what? Throw a paper rocket our of your windows ? Now that would be a good capture for the media and visually appealing too !

Last edited by hareshjethwani : 26th April 2020 at 15:06.
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Old 26th April 2020, 15:01   #1179
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by mohansrides View Post
Since we were talking in hypotheticals a couple of days ago, here is a hypothetical for you guys.

If we could reset the poll on this thread back to zero today and then allow the same set of respondents to vote again, do you want to wager on what the spread would look like today?
I bet it will be more or less same, we were able to arrest exponential growth, now we are wating for exponential decay. Without lockdown, cases will be in lakhs and deaths in thousands, and an irrecoverable economy.

Quote:
Originally Posted by born_free View Post
We all act based on self interest and survival instincts and that is human nature.
Most of us on this forum are relatively well off and have not experienced economic or survival hardships during lockdown, it's not surprising that majority voted for lockdown.

If all of us faced loss of livelihood due to lockdown I am sure majority of votes would be against lockdown.
I work in mobile tower maintenance, had worked all days during lockdown still haven't recived march months pay, because our company is in tight situation now, i am almost sure my job is in trouble because of covid, But i still support Lockdown. And all the technicians (they earn just 15k) i know are more worried about covid than their pay or job

Last edited by splitsecond : 26th April 2020 at 15:13. Reason: Month
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Old 26th April 2020, 15:24   #1180
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by splitsecond View Post
I bet it will be more or less same, we were able to arrest exponential growth, now we are wating for exponential decay. Without lockdown, cases will be in lakhs and deaths in thousands, and an irrecoverable economy.

I work in mobile tower maintenance, had worked all days during lockdown still haven't recived march months pay, because our company is in tight situation now, i am almost sure my job is in trouble because of covid, But i still support Lockdown. And all the technicians (they earn just 15k) i know are more worried about covid than their pay or job
That you support the lockdown is well-known. I don't expect you or anyone who has written in this thread, taking one side or the other, to change their position as that would be at least a little bit awkward for them. But, if we erase all the votes making it less possible for us to know exactly who voted for what, I am willing to bet that a lot of people will consider options that they didn't vote for earlier. Because we have more data today than we did a week ago.

By the way, this virus is not going anywhere. It stays on surfaces and in fecal matter; and does not even offer full immunity to those who have even been infected once and then cured. So, infections will be in lakhs and deaths in thousands any which way. It's just a question of time.

But, good for you and your team to not be worried about your jobs. I hope that the situation stays that way.

Last edited by Sheel : 26th April 2020 at 16:33. Reason: Broken quote tag fixed.
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Old 26th April 2020, 15:51   #1181
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by DCEite View Post
In that case, if government is taking help from data scientists and if they do come up with such model, then it would be prudent to think that extending the lockdown by another 2-3 weeks will take us more closer to the finish line and from then on its will be a situation where we would only have to manage some couple of hundreds cases per day which would be manageable.
One curious question. Why is everything a normal bell curve?

Last edited by Sheel : 26th April 2020 at 16:34. Reason: Please quote ONLY the relevant bits of a post. Quoting a full, long post inconveniences our mobile readers. Thanks!
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Old 26th April 2020, 17:18   #1182
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by mohansrides View Post
Since we were talking in hypotheticals a couple of days ago, here is a hypothetical for you guys.

If we could reset the poll on this thread back to zero today and then allow the same set of respondents to vote again, do you want to wager on what the spread would look like today?
Hypothetical again - what if everyone got food only if they worked, no exceptions, with zero ability to save up effort/money for food?

It is only pain that makes animals learn. And there is no doubt we are all animals, however much we may pretend otherwise.
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Old 26th April 2020, 17:27   #1183
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by JayKis View Post
To be honest, yet to hear about any people who really died of hunger so far!
Correct, no one dies with hunger these days. Wonder in that case, why does Companies/ Business owners need to pay Salaries?

Shouldn't it be simple - LockDown = No Pay, no one will die without salaries!

Will you be ok, not to take salary or will have some other reasons exclusive to yourself not applicable to those poor guys?

Last edited by Turbanator : 26th April 2020 at 17:36.
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Old 26th April 2020, 17:33   #1184
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by The Rationalist View Post
I'm a doctor who can work, I can stay afloat in this kind of situation. Even if the country is locked down, I can manage for few years even without a job. That may be the situation for many on an elite forum like Team-bhp. That's not the case of majority of 130 crore Indians. I can just act like this doesn't affect me, let others suffer. My family has come up from such poor backgrounds and I know how many of my relatives struggle with their lives.

You feel if lockdown is lifted it is going to be catastrophic, you will learn what the real catastrophe is in the coming months.
I was waiting for a reasonable post like this, coming from a doctor and I wasn't disappointed, thank you for balancing out the heavily one sided opinions. Given the option to not contract and virus and die out of starvation, and contracting the virus and going out after one final big meal, I know 99% will choose the latter when facing the situation in ultimate reality.

I will choose the latter too, because I've seen both ends of reality, up close and personal - food, clothing and shelter (aka livelihood) trumps all else. None of that means we're willing to risk others and ourselves either, just that after a reasonable length of time, life must go on. Forty plus days of no economic activity, no greasing the wheel of demand/supply, zero income and zero movement, is reasonable length of time..

Quote:
Originally Posted by vivek95 View Post
Sharing an incident that highlights the sheer apathy, inhumanity and utter stupidity exhibited by civic authorities and the general public alike. I will not divulge much to maintain confidentiality.
Very grateful that you shared this, let us also not forget that the panel of very experienced doctors, set up by the Karnataka government themselves, recommended that there is no point to widening the lock-down beyond the initial 21 weeks - 23 days to be precise. What did they end up doing instead?

The police have been a bit unruly at times, though I never experienced it, but it seems they have a policy of shooting first and then checking the guilt status. I have multiple examples that happened to known people, to share, but I'll let it remain as it may assume a rebellious angle, which is never our intention.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DCEite View Post
In that case, if government is taking help from data scientists and if they do come up with such model, then it would be prudent to think that extending the lockdown by another 2-3 weeks will take us more closer to the finish line and from then on its will be a situation where we would only have to manage some couple of hundreds cases per day which would be manageable.

Comments?
Oh that extra 2/3 weeks will take us much more closer to the "finish line", I guarantee.

Earlier, when people initiated bandhs, Governments would panic and say this would cause upwards of tens of thousands of crores of revenue, overall. Adding 2/3 weeks over and above the already stipulated 6 weeks, will send the economy into a downward spiral for nothing less than this entire year, if we're lucky, and much longer if we're not.

I'm not talking of the loss in monetary terms at all, in the end all those lakhs of crores are spread through maybe 50+ crores of the working population.. using which they feed their parents, their children and their spouses. Without a market for consumption or a risk-averse, purse-tightened economy, the ripple effects will be as bad as a world war. We are looking at abject suffering, for sure, either way.
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Old 26th April 2020, 18:27   #1185
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by Miyata View Post
I don't think they have anything to update about! The response at the top has come across as ad-hoc with no prior thought to it. There was, fundamentally speaking, as well all know, just two things to address - health and wealth.

No (consequential) efforts, no (worthwhile) updates!
I came across press conferences or video addresses of CMs of Delhi, Maharashtra and Kerala as well as daily MHA/Health-Ministry secretary level ones. Internationally also saw UK and US ones. One thing I feel is that the elected representatives are able to connect better with the people. Given the amount of sensationalist TV channels and social media misinformation, I would prefer the ministers addressing the media on a daily basis (and this being live telecast/streamed). They directly answering questions from the media as well will keep the noise level on prime time TV debates to a bit more bearable level !?
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