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View Poll Results: Do you support the lockdown extension?
Yes 299 47.46%
No 244 38.73%
I'm unsure 87 13.81%
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Old 26th April 2020, 22:37   #1201
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by Turbanator View Post
For a moment, let's agree that few people go on the road during relaxed hours, so what?
Yes that is a good question. But we are in a lockdown and you are not supposed to go out. This gives lot of power to the authorities (we are almost a police state now.) In many areas police is doing whatever they want. In Indore they just came and arrested a milk delivery guy and impounded his bike. Now what is that poor chap supposed to do? And how are people supposed to get any milk if delivery guys are to be arrested! My relatives who live there are not getting any fruits/vegetables/supplies. Practically living on dal-chawal and just potatoes! Its draconian.

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Originally Posted by JayKis View Post
Companies/Business owners make more money than the salaries no? If you value your employees, you should pay them, right?
Guess you need to learn about cashflows. Busniesses run on cashflows.
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Old 26th April 2020, 22:41   #1202
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by JayKis View Post
Companies/Business owners make more money than the salaries no? If you value your employees, you should pay them, right? Most of the people, spend more money on rent rather than on food?
Start your own business and get back in here

And before your start one, please try and live on rs 10/day for a week including rent. Let’s find out if hunger kills.

Last edited by Red Liner : 26th April 2020 at 22:43.
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Old 26th April 2020, 22:47   #1203
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by Turbanator View Post
Sir, Problem is the audience, most guys that die of TB do not have a name. No one knows about them and neither is anyone bothered as this is not on media. Honestly, even I am surprised at this number as we don't read this anywhere.
In 2018, India lost 4,40,000 people to Tuberculosis or TB. That would amount to 1206 deaths daily. That too for a disease which has treatment! Our Interventional Pulmonologist was telling from February that we will not lose that many persons to Covid-19. We are hell bent on showing that our numbers are better than others I guess.

As they say in medical schools Ď Operation (Covid prevention) was successful, but patient (economy) died. The ones who perish in this will be those who donít have a face or name as usual. We the privileged will get on with our lives and tell our future generation about our Ďsacrificesí.
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Old 26th April 2020, 22:51   #1204
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by Red Liner View Post
What happens once the state runs out of money to pay the police their monthly wages?
That would cut deep...very deep!

Rather off-topic (apologies):

I trust they have ready made solutions for that - feed us all with a steady drumbeat of patriotism and value system that emphasizes time and again the importance of pain and sacrifice to reap greater karmic benefits tomorrow!

If you and I disagree, that'd be heresy. Sedition.

Most of the law enforcement will be expected to report to duty while the law-makers, well, they are beyond these silly dualities of pain/gain; patriots/traitors; with-pay/without-pay; etc.
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Old 26th April 2020, 22:55   #1205
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Someone seems to be thinking right at this time.



Ignore the cats, it’s just the intro.
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Old 26th April 2020, 23:26   #1206
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by Turbanator View Post
Not Even bicycle and this is only for 4 Hours. Cars/ Bikes are impounded daily and proudly displayed. Can someone give one logic on how walking is safe and Cars unsafe??
Can't comment about the display of impounded vehicles, I know of places where the cops have run out of space to park them (They can't be parked out of sight either).

Coming to the point of not allowing the cars, for emergency situations; you can directly take the car out and drive to hospital, medicine shops etc. Even a doctor's prescription is enough to cross the barricading. That said, it doesn't mean that more than 2 people will travel in the car.

It's a metal after all, and the virus can stay on it for days. Have you ever noticed that the cops neither touch your car, nor the card or anything you give. These people are exposed to summer heat and infection threat altogether. Now for example, your car is touched by someone infected, it returned back and is parked in your covered parking. Whom will you blame in case of an infection? The local administration, or yourself?

I know that the way of mitigating risk isn't right. But then, anyone is free to suggest a way.

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Originally Posted by joslicx View Post
The only logical explanation would be cars would mean people could/would travel longer distances and maybe some/lot may go for joyrides.
People are doing it, I stand on the other side of the fence, I can see how people happily break a few rules and then flaunt it. Hubby broke it, even wifey and kids feel proud of the same!

Brother in law of an electrical contractor went all the way to Haridwar for some personal work on his pass, later he ended up in an argument with an IPS officer on the state border - quarantined!

Lesson learned: Even if you are making a mistake, at least have the sense of saying 'sorry' and moving on. People aren't doing that either.

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I do not support the lockdown.
So don't I, but I don't know what other way can be applied. If we start our passenger trains and buses again, we will be back to same thread blaming the government for the loss of lives.

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Originally Posted by xcentrk View Post
I can now imagine who will be those zombies. It's us, the regular folks who are hungry, harassed and neglected had enough of it and start protesting.
And what about the zombies lying outside hospitals awaiting the beds? Here is the selection of lesser of the two evils. Trust me, the first one is way better. You wouldn't want the infected ones to be in that place.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Turbanator View Post
For a moment, let's agree that few people go on the road during relaxed hours, so what?
So what? Well, allow a few and let the numbers grow.

The people who are blaming them for being harsh today, will blame the same people for being ignorant. I do understand the frustration of people like us, who are fine and live in green zones; still, no income, no freedom, home confined lifestyle and much more. But, what if the pandemic enters the area?

Quote:
This is what Advisor to the Administrator has to say when someone asked him about the efforts of Police-
What other options do administrators have? Walkers in the sectors are getting harassed - indeed an issue.

Chandigarh is a wonderful city and I too believe that vigil should be controlled in sectors. But the issue lies in the capability of the infection growing in the exponential manner. No matter how much social distancing one maintains, if due to any reason (Or some mischief), a few people infected. We won't even know how things will turn out to be.

The concept of the lockdown was rather simple "if people properly followed it in first 21 days, already the possibilities of a further spread would have been dead", rest is all history now. Loom at the picture from the end of administration, one positive case, with itself brings in a lot of risk, monetary expense for administration (Quarantine, manpower allocation etc, not only hospital expenses), and even above that is the health risk of the medical staff; which is already in a huge shortage in this nation.

We are living in a country where the hospital beds are already in a shortage, and one case renders entire floors of the hospitals useless. I don't know and don't want to imagine either, what thing will turn out into, if it grows further and in same exponential manner.

Quote:
TB do not have a name.
Is TB capable of growing at the same pace? Problem here is not what the situation is today, problem lies in what situation can be.

Quote:
Originally Posted by V.Narayan View Post
Just for illustration 1100 Indians die each day because of TB - you read it right each day.
So shall we let Covid-19 also to attain the similar numbers? Issue is that, the day Covid-19 attains even 75% of this figure, we will be already in a state where hospitals won't be able to serve anyone else. Healthcare system's fragility will come to the surface, we will see people staying home out of fear - of the pandemic itself.

The key here is to contain the growth, we, the citizens, have only screwed up over here. And unluckily, neither we have such a cash rich government, nor we have such a wonderful healthcare infrastructure; that if the cat gets out of the bag - there will be a bit too much to handle for our forces and infrastructure.

Today we want to start things forcefully, but then people will refuse to take flights for their lives. Won't that be even worse a situation?

Quote:
Originally Posted by JayKis View Post
Companies/Business owners make more money than the salaries no? If you value your employees, you should pay them, right? Most of the people, spend more money on rent rather than on food?
They are paying fixed costs these days without any income. In addition to that, employees can also think of the company. Right?

Now we have All India Services employees themselves disliking the idea of a wage cut for them. These are the people, who consume a lot from our taxes, even they are disliking the idea. I don't know how govt. is even expecting that private entities will keep on paying salaries.
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Old 26th April 2020, 23:56   #1207
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by VKumar View Post
Is TB capable of growing at the same pace? Problem here is not what the situation is today, problem lies in what situation can be.


So shall we let Covid-19 also to attain the similar numbers? Issue is that, the day Covid-19 attains even 75% of this figure, we will be already in a state where hospitals won't be able to serve anyone else. Healthcare system's fragility will come to the surface, we will see people staying home out of fear - of the pandemic itself.
@Vkumar, I have admired several of your posts, on various topics, in the past for their balance and objectivity. Therefore permit me to explain. The challenge with CV-19 is that the sheer grip of panic and fear of sudden death of a super contagious but relatively mild disease {for a very very large proportion of the population} is such that any comparison with facts of what diseases are all about leads responses like the one above. Allow me to continue the explanation. Just because it is super contagious does not make it a super killer. It doesn't even make it, at least in India, even a super filler of hospitals. Even if the actual numbers killed in India is 10X the official number of ~635 it does not make CV-19 a super killer. The data on TB {also a respiratory disease} is only to provide a context. Folks outside Medicine often do not understand what does 635 deaths from a particular illness mean out of 1.35 billion people. I am providing data points. Some basic sanity is needed here both amongst us, the Govt and the media. If my point is not getting across due to my weak communication skills let's not belabour it further. I would not be surprised if the number of Indians already infected is in the order of 5 or 10 or 15 million. In the vast vast majority of them it would have passed through with barely a whimper, in some as a mild chest infection and only in a very very few as a serious chest infection and in a very miniscule percentage it sadly would have been fatal.

I am only trying to put context and proportion to this whole issue in both this post and the previous one {#1197}.

PS: to specifically answer your question on TB - no it is not growing at the same pace but it is 100X larger in number infected with 2.6 million suffering and ~650 to 700X larger in number of monthly deaths. It is a disease of the poor and thus does not get the attention of the economically better off. The only reason CV-19 has shaken the West {and by extension the world} is because suddenly here is an illness the rich can't run from. If this had been an illness that affected say only the malnutritioned I doubt it would have received the response it has.

Last edited by V.Narayan : 27th April 2020 at 00:05.
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Old 27th April 2020, 00:28   #1208
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by V.Narayan View Post
The only reason CV-19 has shaken the West {and by extension the world} is because suddenly here is an illness the rich can't run from. If this had been an illness that affected say only the malnutritioned I doubt it would have received the response it has.
This is the part that hits the nail directly on its head. This virus doesn't give a damn about economic status, and due to its highly contagious nature, even the richest and most famous people on this earth cannot run away from it. That's the main reason why it is getting the response that it is from governments around the world.

I feel sad for the people who are dying. A loss of life under any circumstances is heartbreaking. However, for the majority of people who get it - which is around 80% if research estimates are correct, it doesn't do anything more than a regular flu would.

Cheers
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Old 27th April 2020, 00:32   #1209
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Dear all, just sharing this interesting snippet I read about the bubonic plague outbreak in Western Europe in the 18th century.

Quote:
In 1720, Yersinia pestis (the plague bacteria) arrived at the port of Marseille from the Levant upon the merchant ship Grand-Saint-Antoine. The vessel had departed from Sidon in Lebanon, having previously called at Smyrna, Tripoli, and plague-ridden Cyprus. A Turkish passenger was the first to be infected and soon died, followed by several crew members and the ship's surgeon. The ship was refused entry to the port of Livorno.

When it arrived at Marseille, it was promptly placed under quarantine in the lazaret by the port authorities.[7] Due largely to Marseille's monopoly on French trade with the Levant, this important port had a large stock of imported goods in warehouses. It was also expanding its trade with other areas of the Middle East and emerging markets in the New World. Powerful city merchants needed the silk and cotton cargo of the ship for the great medieval fair at Beaucaire and pressured authorities to lift the quarantine.

A few days later, the disease broke out in the city. Hospitals were quickly overwhelmed, and residents panicked, driving the sick from their homes and out of the city. Mass graves were dug but were quickly filled. Eventually the number of dead overcame city public health efforts, until thousands of corpses lay scattered and in piles around the city.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Plague_of_Marseille

Now, as is apparent from the disease graph shared earlier, COVID-19 is less deadly and less contagious than bubonic plague (although COVID-19's transmission method is more widespread and it still is deadly), the probability of a scenario detailed above is less likely, yet given the fat-tail nature of epidemics, I fear we don't end up in a Faustian bargain type of a situation.
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Old 27th April 2020, 00:55   #1210
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Allow me to share some perspectives. This might get a bit lengthy and gloomy, but I think it will let the readers revisit their priorities.

Not to be linked to anyone specific but I get the impression that many people here and on various other social media platforms (Twitter/Reddit) are completely oblivious to the realities of our country and the limitations of what we are capable of considering the infrastructure/monetary assets at our disposal.

I have visited PGIMER Chandigarh on more than one occasion in their OPD and then again last year when someone was admitted to its Emergency wards. PGI for those who do not know is probably the best governmental medical facility within a 250 KM radius; only AIIMS tops it off. In its OPD, thereís a waiting of 4 hours on most days irrespective of which department you need to consult with. This is because people know its cheap and yet the best for consultation. This means both rich and poor leverage its services.
To describe the emergency wing, and I am just recalling this from memory, it probably has 5 big halls where you will find approx. 50-60 people lying on stretchers. They are moved from the ambulance on these stretchers and in many cases, die on them in these halls. For the patient that I visited, doctors were quite frank in telling us that this person needs to be put on a ventilator, and we donít have one. The reason cited was that the resources are finite, and we need to prioritize them for the young or those with better odds. When reports started coming in during the start of this monstrosity about how doctors in Italy were faced with dealing with a medical triage, I thought to myself, this was happening in India even during peace times.

The lock-down was necessary, it probably is even now but the overall costs now will start to outweigh the theoretical benefits. If someone is going hungry in peace time, one can maybe look away and attribute it to his fate but when his current circumstances are a direct result of a policy decision, you canít brush it off saying itís a cost Iím willing to pay even when you personally are not affected by it, at-least not to a similar extent.

I might be wrong by leaps and bounds but in my opinion, we have failed to:
  • Procure and deploy randomized testing
  • Guarantee the safety of personnel
  • Outline a vision on what the plan is for the long haul

While saying these points I very well know that we are a poor country, but I fail to understand how the USA was able to scale up so fast. If it was down to a bidding war, Iím sure the authorities could have won considering how we have spent money in the past.
I donít remember which countryís leader it was, but I remember hearing a statement from that head of state that we are starting with this lock-down, but we donít know when it will end. All that was promised was transparency in the decision-making process. This does not cost any money or time but simply the will to do it which I think is either absent here or not in sufficient amounts.
Releasing guidelines late in the night (about opening shops) shows that the decision has been made in haste rather than being carefully planned. Arbitrarily allowing things and then revoking them (definition of essential items for online marketplaces) impedes effective planning at an individual level and makes it much more likely that people will act in an uncivilized manner and end up fighting for these resources.
Looking at the way how the authorities are handling the public(hitting with sticks, made to do exercises, and the latest one that @Turbanator shared) is simply not acceptable and I think anyone who thinks it is the right way to handle a person either has no self-respect or is likely to be involved in similar violations themselves.

It seems I have ranted a lot but not offered a solution. Here goes:
I think it is time to take calculated risks now.
  • If my employer asks me to join work over the next few weeks which will involve travelling across states, I will make an effort to distance myself from my family to reduce the risk to them.
  • The amount of risk rises with public transport so that should be unavailable for some more time but allowing those with private transport to resume working will at least trigger some economic activity which will be relatively safe and will help in financing welfare schemes for those who have been forcefully restricted from joining the workforce because of the lack of public transport.
  • Allocations of food to the needy should be done in a much more liberal manner. If you say that you have stock for the whole nation for the next 10 months, maybe it makes sense to scale the buffer down to 6 months and distribute the remaining so that people do not go to sleep hungry.
  • Doctors are making sacrifices. So, at the very least they should not be fearful of things like their department heads fighting over mandatory donations to relief funds or why they acted the communityísí interest by distributing PPEs while "overriding their authority".

I think only a handful of people in each administration are aware of the complete picture for any broad issue. They should try to come out of their comfort zone and bring some transparency and broad reasoning to their decisions rather than just catering to the most vocal majority.
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Old 27th April 2020, 01:01   #1211
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by JayKis View Post
To be honest, yet to hear about any people who really died of hunger so far!
I've never actually heard a lion roar in real life. This has now caused me to view all lion-related media as a vast conspiracy by the animal-rights-wing activists.


Quote:
Originally Posted by V.Narayan View Post
The only reason CV-19 has shaken the West {and by extension the world} is because suddenly here is an illness the rich can't run from. If this had been an illness that affected say only the malnutritioned I doubt it would have received the response it has.
As someone recently pointed out to me, it's only when the white countries have deaths that it becomes a 'catastrophe'.

Last edited by v1p3r : 27th April 2020 at 01:11.
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Old 27th April 2020, 01:15   #1212
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

I'd go out on a limb and say most of us here have never actually known real hunger.

I mean the kind that keeps one awake at night knowing there's nothing to eat and no means to get it, not the kind that makes us raid the fridge at 3 AM.
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Old 27th April 2020, 01:58   #1213
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by V.Narayan View Post
T

Just for illustration 1100 Indians die each day because of TB - you read it right each day.
Since we are talking of daily figures I thought this can be added.

As of now, with its resources, infra and a visionary leader the US has a rate of 809 deaths per day, if we divide the 55024 deaths from the first confirmed case on the day of 20th Feb 2020. This is followed by Italy with 459 deaths a day.

India is at around 13 deaths per day as of today.

Data from here.

So has the lockdown helped? You bet.

Should the lockdown be extended? That's a tricky one to answer. I would say yes.

The western countries are in damage control mode, whereas we have prevented a lot of damage as of now. Resuming routine will only undo the hardships already faced by us.

We are country where people tend to get overzealous, ask to clap and we will take out processions banging utensils, ask to light a candle and we will show a solid display of fireworks. Ask the cops to make sure people don't loiter around and they go stick happy on every ass they see.

A huge part of the economy is already dead. Hospitality - dead, Travel and tourism - dead, Malls - dead, Recreational areas - dead. Non essential retail - next in line.

This situation is here to stay and if you are affected, there is only one way - evolve. Evolve to the situation, change your business, job or process to suit the way we are going to live from now on.

Physical will take a backseat and Digital will get a push (if it already hasn't) . And if you are sitting at home doing nothing, now is the time to come up with the next big thing.

PS: I'm not a fan of any political party or leader and yes i support the lockdown and its extensions.
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Old 27th April 2020, 04:25   #1214
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by Turbanator View Post
That's nothing to do with my Question. If people are Ok with job losses of others as they have not yet died from hunger, why should businesses pay as no one dies from hunger? And I am talking as an employee. What my employer does with his earnings or losses is not my concern.

If you can't sympathize with problems of others, at least don't make fun. No one is untouchable..
Well, if your thought process was to question the central government's Advisory that businesses should not retrench or cut salaries, I dont work for the government and has no say in it. My personal opinion is that, it is a reassuring instruction in keeping the morale up during these extraordinary times, whose legality thou is suspect.

Just to clarify, when the statement (which you responded to ) "To be honest, yet to hear about any people who really died of hunger so far!" was made, it was specific to Covid Scenario. Am aware that there are enough deaths in India due to starvation (Probably in the magnitude of 7000 a day!) in normal times but wanted to know if there is a compelling case to show that those numbers have gone up during lock down times?

The intention was not to make fun. Everyone is affected to a certain extent. But we can certainly do our bit. Still keep paying 5 people their monthly salaries even though they are not delivering their respective services.

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Originally Posted by joslicx View Post

Guess you need to learn about cashflows. Busniesses run on cashflows.
Cash reserves can be used for emergency situations?

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Originally Posted by Red Liner View Post
Start your own business and get back in here

And before your start one, please try and live on rs 10/day for a week including rent. Letís find out if hunger kills.
Thanks for the Advisory!

Quote:
Originally Posted by VKumar View Post

They are paying fixed costs these days without any income. In addition to that, employees can also think of the company. Right?
The thought process was in the direction that these fixed costs should be covered out of a cash reserve? Companies should have a cash reserve to pay salaries for a few months?
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Old 27th April 2020, 08:16   #1215
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by JayKis View Post

Cash reserves can be used for emergency situations?

The thought process was in the direction that these fixed costs should be covered out of a cash reserve? Companies should have a cash reserve to pay salaries for a few months?
Think about viability also. A lot of businesses would be very deeply hurt. It's not like everybody is sitting on a huge pile of cash. Think about a hair salon. You took a loan and started an upscale salon. Now you have lot of fixed costs. There's rent, employee salaries, maybe previous bills for consumables etc to pay, electricity bills, etc etc. But there's absolutely no income now. And no visibility of an income for quite some time. Who is going to come for haircuts and other more income generating beauty procedures now. Most customers are themselves conserving their cash in these times. So now what do you do? How long can you keep operating? Most small and medium size businesses aren't necessarily run by people with deep pockets.

Now it's same for lot of businesses. Real estate. Who is buying now or going to rent office spaces now? Even financial sector. If people are not going to take loans where will they make money? It's just too much uncertainty. It was expected that government will come up with some measures to address all these but for far it's Nada.
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