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View Poll Results: Do you support the lockdown extension?
Yes 299 47.46%
No 244 38.73%
I'm unsure 87 13.81%
Voters: 630. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 27th April 2020, 09:54   #1216
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by JayKis View Post
The thought process was in the direction that these fixed costs should be covered out of a cash reserve? Companies should have a cash reserve to pay salaries for a few months?
Are you being naive or genuinely don't understand concepts like cash-flow, operating costs, fixed costs etc.?

A multi-national carmaker's IT Centre in India made it's employees to take ONE-WEEK annual leave. One-week's salary is pocket change for them but they had to do it to reduce their future liability.

If this is the situation for a big company then imagine the plight of smaller ones and then extrapolate the situation of vendors who take a loan in the morning; then buy and sell produce; pay back the principal with interest; then go back home with a margin that feeds their family.

P.S: Most companies don't have the cash scenario that Infosys or TCS have. In times like these, they even shop for M&A.
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Old 27th April 2020, 11:26   #1217
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by JayKis View Post
The thought process was in the direction that these fixed costs should be covered out of a cash reserve? Companies should have a cash reserve to pay salaries for a few months?
Aside of IT companies and few large scale manufacturers, majority of the companies in both manufacturing and services do not keep cash reserves. Idle cash is an opportunity lost. Remember we are in a ultra competitive world where everyone wants to gain the slightest advantage possible in pricing.

Majority of the businesses run on the concept of Hand to Mouth. Only a continuous revenue cycle enables them to pay rents, salaries, service loans etc. Now what the lockdown had done is broken the chain and that too at multiple places. To get it back on track is the real challenge.

Now how many of the broken links will be restored is the biggest question. A few links are going to be broken for the foreseeable future which will have a cascading effect on the other industries.

For example Hospitality and travel are gone cases. Even if 15% to 20% of the people dependent on this sector are out of employment, we are talking about millions of jobless. Now add the displaced from all the sectors, we will start to consume less which will create unemployment in the sectors which were running. The idea is we exit this downward spiral quickly and get the economy back up as early as possible.

I feel we need to do what the US has done after the great depression in 1930's and 1940's. Spend huge on infrastructure to get the economy going. (US benefited from World War 2 though). I think it is time grand projects like BharatMala are driven with full force. We get the roads and people get work. Time for government to plan their finances.

I will give personal example. We are into Real Estate. With the sudden announcement of lockdown at the end of the Financial year all my planning went for a toss. We committed to new projects from our existing reserves. Revenues that we were supposed to receive dried up overnight as our business partners and their staff stopped coming to office. But expenses we have to pay were there as it is. We delayed what payments we could to the contractors till now. But now even they are in dire needs. To pay them I had to take a short term loan from friend. I am lucky to have friends who could help me, but that is not the case for majority.
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Old 27th April 2020, 13:24   #1218
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by Chetan_Rao View Post
I'd go out on a limb and say most of us here have never actually known real hunger.

I mean the kind that keeps one awake at night knowing there's nothing to eat and no means to get it, not the kind that makes us raid the fridge at 3 AM.
I have and that is why I don't support this lock down to be extended any further. People sitting behind their laptop's/mobile screens can never imagine what is to be hungry knowing that you don't have any resources to feed your kids who are crying helplessly while going to sleep. When you don't have money to visit a doctor for a tooth ache or what is to sleep on a cemented or tar floor in this harsh summer.

I know what it is to be in this situation & this lock down should not be extended even if it means if we lose a few more lives.
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Old 27th April 2020, 14:09   #1219
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

In the effort and focus over Covid-19 one very big item that has got significantly relegated to the background is the number of patients with other illnesses, need for surgery, need for complex treatments that are getting delayed or left out till the lockdown is lifted and patients from out of city, out of district and out of State can travel to their chosen hospital. Those of us who live in the top 10 cities have access to good healthcare/surgery facilities within our municipal limits but the rest of the country has to cross district or State borders to get to the right hospital. In the organization I am associated with, alone, we have over 350 paediatric surgeries backlogged now which otherwise were scheduled from 25/3 and 24/4. The same situation must be repeating itself thousands of time across hospitals all over India. Sadly some in social media believe that Covid-19 is the sole focus of healthcare.
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Old 27th April 2020, 14:53   #1220
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Most of us will get agitated if our small kid asks for a particular toy and its not available on amazon or flipkart. Or say s/he is demanding for a particular food (maggi/chocos/pasta) and its not available. What will be our mindset if we see food supplies getting exhausted and no help forthcoming on the horizon ? I have seen people here hoard boxes of panipuris and Cheetos kind of stuff.

What I am trying to say is that people are frustrated and want out not because of the lockdown solely. It is because they have no clarity or information on what will be the condition tomorrow leave alone a month hence.

Anyway I wanted to put forth a different point. The effect of this lockdown on personal relations. So many people cooped up together for such a long time. I remember a friend narrating that when asked why do you sleep outside, a worker said that to save costs we have 10 people in our one room house.

Earlier due to shift differences there were only 3-4 of us at a time in the house but now with this lockdown we ten people have nowhere to go and all cannot be inside the entire 24 hours leave alone for days on end. Add to that the fact that temperatures are hovering around 40 degrees now and with little ventilation and single/no fan, we cannot even begin to comprehend these harsh conditions.
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Old 27th April 2020, 15:47   #1221
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by JayKis View Post
The thought process was in the direction that these fixed costs should be covered out of a cash reserve? Companies should have a cash reserve to pay salaries for a few months?
Cash reserves? As a small business owner, we use whatever money we have to procure items and get enough sales figures so we can feed ourselves and our staffs. For a small & medium business, we don't have the luxury of having cash reserves. Getting loan for new business is already very tough and not to mention the kind of debt we have to get the business started in the first place. Our business is relatively new(13 months) and even though we had good sales run businesses need loans from banks to work better. And I'm sure business started around End of 2018 or start of 2019 like us will suffer the same fate.

Even if we have Cash reserve, it would hardly cover 1-2 months of salaries, rent and other bills like Internet, Power. If lock-down is going to be extended beyond May 3rd, then we are as good as dead.

We have dried up our reserve already and now down to last penny! Even now we are trying to scrape the bottom by dealing with essential items(IR Thermometer) and sell them for meagre profit so that we can at least have something to pay in terms of loans, salaries and for ourselves. But even selling that is really hard with all those restrictions, checking and having to explain everything regularly for the authorities. We have products sitting idle because we couldn't get the pass on time to travel intercity and now with complete lock-down for 4 days, some clients purchased the same item from nearby sellers at higher cost.

I am not asking for complete lifting of lock-down but having some relaxations for some business will be good for people like us. Not all Business owners have tons of money stashed at their home. Most of us live hand to mouth and with issues like getting loan, GST etc, our life is hard as it is even without the lock-down.

I am stressed 24x7 for past 2 weeks and now I can't seem to shake off the stress. The moment I sit to watch TV or to take rest, it occupies me and I visualise all possible outcomes in my mind everyday and how I am going to get past it without any big loss.

Like Dr.Strange did in Avengers : Infinity Wars, out of millions of possibilities there is only one where I hardly win. And that one is when government lift the lock-down soon with well defined safety precautions for people. Rest of them, it's just suffering. I understand the chances of increased cases, but as @vivek95 said, with 70% of the cases asymptomatic, I wonder even if I contracted Covid-19 already but have no idea since it might have passed through just another cold. Who knows?

Last edited by xcentrk : 27th April 2020 at 15:49.
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Old 27th April 2020, 16:13   #1222
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by V.Narayan View Post
In the effort and focus over Covid-19 one very big item that has got significantly relegated to the background is the number of patients with other illnesses, need for surgery, need for complex treatments that are getting delayed or left out till the lockdown is lifted and patients from out of city, out of district and out of State can travel to their chosen hospital.
Here is more information on the above-

https://www.thehindu.com/news/cities...?homepage=true

I thought the people from the medical fraternity will definitely back this complete lockdown even beyond May 3rd!. Now there are differing views from them as well.

By the way, I work in IT and have been working from home for over a month with zero impact on productivity and salary.

I still voted against a lockdown.
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Old 27th April 2020, 16:21   #1223
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...w/75404625.cms

"Odisha, Goa join Meghalaya in urging for lockdown extension"

Why would Meghalaya with 12 cases and 1 death, and Goa with just 7 cases want an extension? Is this just incomplete news reporting and they meant that they want to extend in the areas affected? Or are they saying the official numbers are not what they seem? Or is it just panic...I mean...'better safe than sorry'? Or has the meaning of 'lockdown' itself changed now.

I am fully confused now. God help those businesses and people depending on clear government communication to re-start whatever work they are hoping to start.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nalin1 View Post
I thought the people from the medical fraternity will definitely back this complete lockdown even beyond May 3rd!. Now there are differing views from them as well.
Well, I guess medical professionals are used to taking decisions based on experience and scientific facts that they can see in front of them, sometimes that means changing tactics based on ground realities. Bureaucrats, politicians and us IT guys have no such 'limitations' We think everything will run well based on projections, ideal conditions, and plans we dream up in meetings! And we tend to stick with those plans even when there is enough evidence to show they are not working.

Above all doctors believe in 'Primum non nocere'. Again, politicians and us IT guys have no such problems.

Last edited by am1m : 27th April 2020 at 16:43.
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Old 27th April 2020, 16:45   #1224
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

As I mentioned in one of my posts earlier, it looks like Lockdown 3.0 is about to be in place. My expectation is that this time around we get the duration of third phase in advance. Not two or three days before May 03, 2020. I expect this lockdown 3.0 to be of around 15 days or so. But its just a wild guess, not at all prudent. I believe over a period of time we will be at a point where we will have to accept Covid-19 as a part and parcel of life. Something very fatal that we will have to avoid it with care and attention while moving ahead in our daily lives. India has accrued a lot of economic loss by now from what I am reading on net. With such a quagmire of lives vs economy before us, a full lockdown seems quixotic now. We could have done more tests for sure, and data/results obtained could have been used for a more effective, logical extension of lockdown. For such a large nation, our testing has fallen behind. Neither do I see massive, exponential boost in healthcare infrastructure just in case infection spreads like wildfire. So other than a achieving a relatively non-debatable result of preventing more infections, we haven't exactly excelled anywhere else the way we should have to handle bigger crises. What if we are still have pockets of infections in the nation post the (expected) third phase of lockdown ? Atleast give us clarity that till cases are Zero, lockdown is going to be in place or some estimation of timeline.
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Old 27th April 2020, 16:53   #1225
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Originally Posted by am1m View Post
If you read that carefully, and completely, you will not be confused.

However, you will be disappointed if you plan on traveling to Goa or Meghalaya on May 4. That is what they want - sealed borders - and I am not surprised going by the privileged junta waiting to catapult on any such opportunity.

There is no article anywhere that says Government is inclined on extending lockdown post May 3.

All information, currently in public domain, points to opening of areas that are not in Red Zone - of course, no malls, theatres, educational institutions at this stage.

5 days back, I was asked to update details on "return to work" for employees in my organization.

The quantum of employees returning is fixed at 25% of total team strength, per week. These 25% will not repeat for next 3 weeks. Buildings will be occupied at max 50% capacity.
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Old 27th April 2020, 17:02   #1226
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by Safety is Param View Post
There is no article anywhere that says Government is inclined on extending lockdown post May 3.
Well, thanks for such a generous clarification! (And your special guidance for the 'privileged junta'- nice touch there! )

Unfortunately there is no clear indication either that the lock down will be lifted after May 3rd. And not just among us forum users, several sectors too are still waiting for a clear picture.

The basic point I was making, was shouldn't the government be putting out clear directives, not leaving it to us to piece things together from news reports (sometimes contradictory) here and there?

Last edited by am1m : 27th April 2020 at 17:23.
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Old 27th April 2020, 17:04   #1227
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by am1m View Post
Why would Meghalaya with 12 cases and 1 death, and Goa with just 7 cases want an extension? Is this just incomplete news reporting and they meant that they want to extend in the areas affected?
I suspect the true reason is hidden within those alternatives - people making decisions (CMs/PM) have no ears or eyes on the ground. They cannot feel the pulse of the localities they represent. If they could find a way to connect with the masses and feel their pressing needs and consult with medical fraternity; they might be better placed in taking decisions to ease off the lockdowns in manner that is beneficial to the masses.

Tragically, in a democracy like ours, only time the people are heard is when they unite into a strike/processions. Hope matters don't come to that else the already ailing economy and delicate healthcare system will be setback few years more.

I also wonder if folks (top leadership in particular) asking for extended lockdowns have any personal agenda or gains coming from it? One never knows.
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Old 27th April 2020, 17:13   #1228
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

I believe in Hyderabad and surrounding districts lockdown will be extended until end of May. It is both Summer and Ramzan time. People would want to get out after being cooped up for so long. As the numbers are showing no inclination to slowdown, I am bracing for another extension.

As such stores were asked to close by 1 pm in my locality since last Monday.

Metros will be the new lockdown hubs.
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Old 27th April 2020, 20:39   #1229
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Effects of the lockdown & the COVID-19

Something I have observed in last two months and realized, and will share it here.

From what I see, the major impact on the businesses is not the lockdown as much as it is the COVID-19 virus.

Case in point - I work for a company having operations across the world, except India. Europe, US, HK, China. These countries do not have the type of lockdown that we have. People are free to go about their business provided they maintain social distancing and other rules as prescribed by the authorities.
In spite of this, for the last 2 months, the sales have been a paltry 5% of what it would have been normally. Deep down, I am scared.

For once, let us assume that the lockdown was actually lifted tomorrow in India, for all businesses, for example. Let us not discuss the impact on virus spread for a while. How many businesses will actually do some business, apart from the essentials that is already open?
Would it be wrong to assume 70-80% people will continue to avoid parlors / theatres / malls / hotel accommodations / dine-in restaurants / vacations / automobiles / big ticket items and a lot more? Even without lockdown, a lot of jobs in these sectors will be lost. A sizable chunk.

In this post, I am not advocating anything for or against the lockdown.
My point being majority businesses are going to suffer now, lockdown or no lockdown, because people all over the world are preferring to stay home.

It is a vicious cycle. With the slowdown, spending will decrease big time, jobs will be lost and most business will have to scale down their operations, a lot many will go under, because now for at least another 6-12 months, peoples spending patters will be changed.

Lockdown or no lockdown, the impact is bad for many sectors and the jobs dependent on them.
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Old 27th April 2020, 21:12   #1230
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by vinit.merchant View Post
For once, let us assume that the lockdown was actually lifted tomorrow in India, for all businesses, for example. Let us not discuss the impact on virus spread for a while. How many businesses will actually do some business, apart from the essentials that is already open?
Some businesses at least. For example, in many places even vegetable shops have been closed! Or liquor shops (which I think most states will be happy to have them open) can open and can sell. Or even consumer goods like TV, Fridge, AC, mobiles, PCs, laptops etc. Why cant these not be opened? This would allow some commerce to begin. Similarly repair shops can open. if my mobile screen breaks today I am stuck with broken mobile. Why should I not be allowed to get it fixed?
Eventually life has to come back to normal. People will have to go out and work. The confidence for this will take some time but it will come. Reopening the economy will be the first step. It will give some confidence to people at least.
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