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View Poll Results: Do you support the lockdown extension?
Yes 299 47.46%
No 244 38.73%
I'm unsure 87 13.81%
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Old 2nd May 2020, 13:16   #1441
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Let's think of future. India opens up for herd immunity. For like to like population comparison, let's use Uttar Pradesh.

Population of UP is around 22 crores and US is around 33 crores. Lets not compare the geographical area.

We can also compare Karnataka with Italy/Spain, just in terms of population. The population density of Karnataka/UP will be more than Italy/US.

Now, imagine number of corona cases are alike and have reached the same stage. What would be the advice to Karnataka/UP govt.

How will our streets look like, what will be the thinking in everyone's mind ? Economy or lives ? Or a fine balance. How will our hospitals look like. What our life look like.

Will someone, along with their parents and kids will want to go out , get a public transport, help their loved ones in getting herd immunity faster, help the govt in getting more revenue. Or you will ask your parents or your kids to wait it out, till the time possible.

I think your answer will tell you whether lockdown is necessary or not.

Anyone prescribing herd immunity should expose themselves to the virus, no point in using masks/sanitisers etc etc. Expose yourself and your family faster, get immunity faster, help economy get back on track faster.
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Old 2nd May 2020, 13:22   #1442
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by nikhn View Post
central bank data says otherwise.
Few things, the number they share, are actual and normally correct. Unlike with us where there are coverups. I am not an economist, perhaps knowledgeable guys can shed more light.

The Percentage of Exports to GDP in Sweden is very high (45%), so they are a lot dependents on the other markets.

https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/Sweden/exports/

It's correct that all countries, whether under complete or partial lockdown, will see massive contractions but we are a developing economy & will face more burnt. Our situation could have been different because of our own domestic demand had we gone into gradual lockdown.

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/coro...home-topscroll

This is exactly what I fear.


Quote:
Originally Posted by turbo_delight View Post
India opens up for herd immunity.
I can't say about others, but I never opposed the lockdown, just the way it was done. It's a Fact that we royally messed up so many things. We could have saved most of the people who are now returning with the disease. The reopening we are seeing when 35,000 and increasing every minute could have been avoided had these guys were at their homes already.

The way I feel, it's just a start and unless something turns up differently for us (BCG/ Heat or some medicines) we haven't yet seen the peak, flattening is a distant dream. It should not surprise us if all these efforts of past 40 days goes waste if these people are carrying the infections and by then, I am not sure how will our medical/ support system copeup.

Quote:
Originally Posted by theMandarin View Post

And then this report that gives credence to what has been said:
For A Billion Indians, The Government’s Voluntary Contact Tracing App Might Actually Be Mandatory

Was wondering if the members here share these concerns?
I will support anything that helps in curtailing spread of this disease. Privacy, we already have Adhaar so nothing beats it. We should make it mandatory, perhaps they should stop Internet on smartphones if the App is not installed or not active. Caveat - I have not used the App till now so don't know if there is anything to get worried?

Last edited by Turbanator : 2nd May 2020 at 13:39.
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Old 2nd May 2020, 13:27   #1443
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by mohansrides View Post
So what exactly are you suggesting? That we remain under lockdown forever?
Thank you for the reply. Hopefully the links I shared made some sense. The initial post was to find how the herd immunity suggested would help in any way. I never mentioned anything about a " lockdown forever ".

Quote:
And what makes you think that I donít value lives?
Never said that. Again, you should read what was posted. I asked if you prefer lives over economy? Which was not answered but rather avoided.

Quote:
Actually I could turn that question over to you. Why donít you value lives that are lost, or are severely affected due to a lockdown? Because I can guarantee you that in absolute numbers, the numbers of those who are either already going through, or will go through, unimaginable suffering is far greater than the actual Covid cases. We just arenít counting that number anywhere. But we are diligently counting the Covid deaths.
By the way, I value all lives equally. But since I do not have proof or "guarantee" that the number of lives lost due to loss of economy is larger, I will refrain from answering that.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mohansrides View Post
New Zealand? Are you serious?
Thank you. The same can be said about Sweden. Them achieving herd immunity is not the same for us. Now I will not quote population statistics and so on because anyone can google that. How are you sure that our hospitals will not be burdened if we open up fully?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lobogris View Post
How about comparing their CFR to UK, Italy or Spain? All those countries have been under lockdown for a while.
Sure. To be fair, the data is plotted from 1st March as was with Sweden. UK went into lockdown on March 23rd. Spain and Italy much earlier. BTW to re-iterate several times as others have been doing. Lockdown was not to reduce the number of cases, it was to help prevent overburden of the healthcare system. Please do not quote the graph and claim that the lockdown was of no use.

India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020-comparison.jpg

Last edited by nikhn : 2nd May 2020 at 13:49.
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Old 2nd May 2020, 13:28   #1444
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by nikhn View Post
Hi doctor, after your posts, I was curious as to Sweden's method of dealing with this pandemic. So I googled a bit and was surprised to see that their CFR is worse than the USA and is the worst among the Nordic countries.
How about comparing their CFR to UK, Italy or Spain? All those countries have been under lockdown for a while. The US fatality rate is also rising steadily. It used to be under 2% and has been climbing. Roughly same number of deaths will take place. Sweden gets them a little earlier and some with strict lock downs get them later in the cycle. In any case, I would much prefer a model where we are sensible and take precautions but donít cower away in terror while giving up our freedoms and liberties. Would anyone here accept to live in a safe, luxurious prison for the next 20 years where you wonít have to face daily risks involved in working, shopping, driving etc? Why are all countries under lockdown eventually going to open with precautions model despite the fact that there are still a large number of daily cases occurring?
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Old 2nd May 2020, 13:33   #1445
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

This might be slightly tangential to the discussion but i wanted to invite others to offer, different perspectives.

I came across this discussion about the contact tracing app where the authors have apprehensions about the apps' implications on a user's privacy:
Is Aarogya Setu privacy-first? Nope, but it could be.

And then this report that gives credence to what has been said:
For A Billion Indians, The Governmentís Voluntary Contact Tracing App Might Actually Be Mandatory

Was wondering if the members here share these concerns?
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Old 2nd May 2020, 13:33   #1446
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by mohansrides View Post
New Zealand? Are you serious?

-snip-

More importantly, vast majority of people here are on subsistence incomes. How long are you going to wait exactly until you understand everything about the virus so that you can finally decide to let people earn a living?
Let me phrase my reply in the same manner as yours.

"US, Sweden, Turkey, are you serious?

The country sizes are so diverse that a logical comparison to India cannot be made. Also they have a more even spread of per capita income relatively speaking. Also their combined population is still much lesser than India's combined population."

See. If NZ was illogical, how are US, Turkey and Sweden logical just because they didn't implement a lockdown? If we're cutting out certain countries, let's cut all of them out, as simple as that.

Also, please note that I never suggested that we follow the same approach as them. Just that the lockdown as a strategy has worked at least in one place. The same can't be said for herd immunity, which you are professing as the best strategy.
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Old 2nd May 2020, 14:02   #1447
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by theMandarin View Post
...

Was wondering if the members here share these concerns?
Making it mandatory to install the app is a challenge by itself, making usage mandatory is practically impossible.

The app needs Location Services to function, and it's neither possible to force everyone to have that enabled full-time, or do it at device OS level so turning off Location Services is no longer an option.

Moreover, how does one force a user to keep their smartphone powered up at all times, and what about people who don't use smartphones at all?

Swell idea on paper, non-starter on the ground.

P.S. Could use cell-signal triangulation, but it's not as accurate as GPS so doesn't meet the purpose.
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Old 2nd May 2020, 14:14   #1448
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chetan_Rao View Post
Swell idea on paper, non-starter on the ground.

P.S. Could use cell-signal triangulation, but it's not as accurate as GPS so doesn't meet the purpose.
First of all there are no privacy laws to handle data collection, this itself is concerning.

Secondly not everyone will be able to access the service as Chetan mentioned

South Korea used Credit Card transactions and Cell tower data to identify the contacts, they have been most successful using this method to quickly identify them.

The most common theme for countries which have been successful is that they have been conducting tests tests and tests. Kerela is a great example where they have been tackling it for almost 3 months and are doing voluntary tests, where individuals wanting to get tested can. We are lacking testing, we need to identify the asymptomatic carriers to break the chain, because that is what causes the spread to begin with.
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Old 2nd May 2020, 14:29   #1449
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by theMandarin View Post
This might be slightly tangential to the discussion but i wanted to invite others to offer, different perspectives.

I came across this discussion about the contact tracing app where the authors have apprehensions about the apps' implications on a user's privacy:
Is Aarogya Setu privacy-first? Nope, but it could be.

And then this report that gives credence to what has been said:
For A Billion Indians, The Governmentís Voluntary Contact Tracing App Might Actually Be Mandatory

Was wondering if the members here share these concerns?
Thank you for bringing this up. I was having some discussions on this topic with friends earlier. And before I start, I'd like to point out that people are having privacy concerns with their respective countries' tracing apps all over the world; just to bring some perspective to this discussion. See - https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01264-1

The first link is interesting to read. I'll take their word for it when they say it could have been done better. But I don't agree with one part of it, namely the line "Singapore monitors peopleís interactions through Bluetooth beacons, MIT does it through GPS, and then thereís India which uses both."

Anecdotally, I happen to know that two Android phones in our household didn't have working GPS functionality. The Moto G5S Plus didn't come with a GPS chip installed to cut costs. The Vivo I was using earlier simply gave up on GPS after an Android update. Similarly, I'm sure there are other Android phones that don't have a working GPS chip, problems with GPS accuracy(it was never meant to be pin-point), and other possible logistical reasons that justify the use of Bluetooth here. Besides, I don't see what the major privacy concern is with the use of Bluetooth beacons. If someone could shed some light on that, I'd appreciate it.

Secondly, how would they MANDATE the installation and operation of an app across 1.3 billion people? What if I were using a Windows Phone, BlackBerry or feature phone? Can they mandate I switch to Android or iPhone to get the app? What if I simply switched off location services whenever I felt like I didn't want to be tracked? Will my phone set off an alarm to warn nearby users?

I understand and agree that there are some risks posed by this, and that we will need to bring up this issue if they mandate usage of the app in the post-lockdown, post-Corona era. But that is quite a ways away. Until then, what do the anti-Aarogya Setu people advocate we do?
To quote Buckminster Fuller, "You never change things by fighting the existing reality. To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete."
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Old 2nd May 2020, 14:30   #1450
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by theMandarin View Post
I came across this discussion about the contact tracing app where the authors have apprehensions about the apps' implications on a user's privacy:

Was wondering if the members here share these concerns?
While I think wide usage of such an app can help a great deal in contact tracing, what I find problematic is the use of GPS. GPS accuracy is not going to tell anyone if I came within 6 ft of someone. Bluetooth does this job, by connecting to other nearby devices. Other countries where they are using such apps are for example Singapore (tracetogether) and Australia (covidsafe) - if I am not mistaken, both use only bluetooth, and only record anonymous user data, until someone is actually infected. Till then, the app only notifies you if some `contact' or `contact of contacts' etc tests positive, and requests your data to be shared.

Just noticed that the wikipedia page (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Positioning_System) says that
Quote:
When selective availability was lifted in 2000, GPS had about a five-meter (16 ft) accuracy. The latest stage of accuracy enhancement uses the L5 band and is now fully deployed. GPS receivers released in 2018 that use the L5 band can have much higher accuracy, pinpointing to within 30 centimeters or 11.8 inches.
but from our experience of using gps on our phones, I doubt gps on a smartphone can be that accurate.

Last edited by akp : 2nd May 2020 at 14:38. Reason: added reference to wikipedia page
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Old 2nd May 2020, 14:33   #1451
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chetan_Rao View Post
Making it mandatory to install the app is a challenge by itself, making usage mandatory is practically impossible.
In its last notification, the government has directed all employers(private and public) to ensure compliance with having the app installed for anyone reporting to office. So anyone who has not lost his job so far will need to eventually have the app in order to resume working in the office.

I don't think it's too far-fetched to imagine guards checking the app while entering your residential complexes and other businesses like shopping malls/complexes.

Recently an e-pass system had been added to it and i think it will eventually be a mandated requirement for inter-state travel.

It might not be mandatory outright, but considering the push its receiving, it can get to a point where its more than an inconvenience to get back to your life without having it installed.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chetan_Rao View Post
The app needs Location Services to function, and it's neither possible to force everyone to have that enabled full-time, or do it at device OS level so turning off Location Services is no longer an option.
I read some first hand experiences where people mentioned that at least bluetooth is periodically checked and switched on even if you have it disabled. Disabling the app might be something power users will know how to do but that will interfere with the first point above.

There are reports that manufacturers have been asked to ship the app with new phones and also to develop a version of the app for feature phones.

Going one step further, if it is mandated to add the app to existing phones via a software update, it will be all the more difficult to remove it from the phone just like how you can disable FB but not remove it on some phones without rooting.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chetan_Rao View Post
Moreover, how does one force a user to keep their smartphone powered up at all times, and what about people who don't use smartphones at all?
Again, while steps like having these apps available for feature phones will render the 'not having a smartphone' argument void, increased penetration of the app among the public will result in a situation where a vendor will be willing to lose your business if you don't have the app (e.g. a chemist refusing to interact with you if you don't have the app).

Last edited by theMandarin : 2nd May 2020 at 14:47. Reason: Typos :)
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Old 2nd May 2020, 14:47   #1452
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by turbo_delight View Post
Anyone prescribing herd immunity should expose themselves to the virus, no point in using masks/sanitisers etc etc. Expose yourself and your family faster, get immunity faster, help economy get back on track faster.
Well said. Not sure how many 'Free the economy' warriors will actually do that. Somehow, this thread has become irrelevant looking at how replies evolve from time to time.

When there was full lockdown, we had people crying hoarse about how inconvenient it is. How essential services were not being made available, how someone could not go out for joyrides. How migrants were not able to go home.

When trains were arranged for migrants, then the same set of people are jumping up and down about how there is a risk of infection spreading and how this should have been done earlier and how this is the wrong way of doing it. All talk and no real solutions. I am yet to see someone actually propose a viable solution in all these pages where we have cribbed. Wow!

Luckily, the majority as per the poll in this thread agree with the lockdown. Thank God, the government too agreed with a strict lockdown till this point of time. The data speaks for itself and I am sure we have controlled the spread (cases per million population) much much better than all the countries whom so many admire and blindly want us to follow.

The naysayers can continue to harp on about how much the economy will be affected. However please also keep in mind that the economies for the countries with not so strict lockdowns did not fare better either. So if I were to choose, I would choose one where there is an effort to save lives rather than the economy. After all, we dont want to show a star performance of the economy when 10 million people die (again more among this will be those in the economically weaker sections).
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Old 2nd May 2020, 15:16   #1453
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by theMandarin View Post
In its last notification...
There's more.

1. Who exactly will we trace?

If we only trace known infections and their contact circle, it won't be effective.

Without widespread testing for asymptomatic virus carriers who are and will be the largest infection vector, the whole point of getting this stringent about tracing, right now, is moot.

2. Don't forget the one factor that's the largest hurdle in any public endeavor in a large population: scale. Applies to both testing and tracing.

3. Organized employment is a small fraction of our entire productive workforce, so making employers responsible for it will have limited effect overall.

4. There's also a significant chunk of population that can barely afford to eat (nothing to do with the pandemic), so it's far-fetched to expect they can afford any sort of tracking device, while they live amongst us as potential infection vectors.

Data privacy concerns probably doesn't even make the top 3 or 5 challenges in making this work effectively.

Poor RoI at this moment, so the time/money/effort is best spent on more tangible outcomes (healthcare and infra the top priorities right now) and the idea can be revisited later once we have more data to work with.

Last edited by Chetan_Rao : 2nd May 2020 at 15:18.
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Old 2nd May 2020, 15:23   #1454
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

This Aarogya Setu app has been made mandatory for all employees. Earlier it was mandatory only for containment zones! MHA directives sneakily includes this. There needs to be an actual law passed to allow this, unless MHA directives are now law.

https://www.livemint.com/technology/...363998234.html
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Old 2nd May 2020, 15:28   #1455
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by racer_ash View Post

When there was full lockdown, we had people crying hoarse about how inconvenient it is. How essential services were not being made available, how someone could not go out for joyrides. How migrants were not able to go home.

When trains were arranged for migrants, then the same set of people are jumping up and down about how there is a risk of infection spreading and how this should have been done earlier and how this is the wrong way of doing it. All talk and no real solutions. I am yet to see someone actually propose a viable solution in all these pages where we have cribbed. Wow!

.
The implementation of the lockdown was not planned, there is no doubt about it.

(since first case seen in late Jan they had 2 months to prepare, WHO had also mentioned to prepare)

what they could have done:-
- ensure PPEs were ordered, permissions granted to local manufacturers with specifications of PPEs (this happened post the lockdown with no set specifications till mid April)
- ensured proper delivery of essential services was in place (giving out passes, ensuring ration was sufficiently distributed to the states, provided financial packages to the states to prepare)
- the public could have been given a 2 week notice to help store essentials, meet their doctors, allowed travel to their respective homes.
- Ration distribution to the poor could have been completed prior to lockdown.
- companies could have been given a warning of a month to prepare for work from home at mass.
- given hospitals time to prepare procedures, protocols, and stock up. Setup telemedicine hubs to help their patients.
- set up laws to ensure no job losses
- allowed manufacturers to to build ventilators or have hospitals with broken down ventilators to get repaired.
- setting up hotline numbers for door step ration delivery
- decentralization of resource distribution, asking the center for everything puts burden on them
- ordering of test kits or at least providing immediate approvals for manufacturers in India (we are still procuring from international market a majority share)

What they could have done after sudden announcement of lockdown
- provided immediate supply of rations. (it took weeks after lockdown to get rations, and still not many people got it, such a shame)
- provided transportation to the poor migrant workers. How? issuing daily a set number of passes for travel, ensuring they reach their destination and follow quarantine for 2 weeks. Upon arrival at their destination they could have been given ration kits to at least have something when they get home.
- how to prevent abuse of the system. Use of voting ink to ensure multiple kits are not given to same person.
- handing out of cash instead of bank transfer (which was stupid, as people will obviously crowd at ATMs and Banks). Once a person gets the cash apply the ink on the finger to make sure they don't come back. Most poor folks don't have Bank accounts or an ATM nearby. Again for migrant workers it could have been done at the time of them reaching the destination and getting the rations as well.
- set up laws to ensure nobody gets evicted from their rental homes, ensuring either reduced payment of rents or deferring them for a time being
- reduce electricity tariffs
- setting up of mini ration shops within a locality for quick and easy distribution to the needy.

There is a lot that could have been done and could be done. Decision making process is taking weeks at end, and implementation adding further weeks to it.

Lockdown is not the key to success, it is delaying the inevitable

Testing Testing Testing, identify the carriers as majority of those who spread the disease had no symptoms.

This classification of zones with benefits to each zone without identifying carriers will only cause under-reporting of cases. States will like to maintain their green status by hiding the numbers, and red zones will stop reporting high numbers. This scenarios is worse.

Forget the economy, lives are important. Once things are actually under control economy will again pick up.

Last edited by falconion : 2nd May 2020 at 15:31.
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