[khanmaj]

Originally Posted by TRR

I'm genuinely interested if you have any sources for your statements above, especially with regard to them being "left to roam around freely". Thanks in advance

I apologize if my comment mislead someone. I did not mean that people who were evacuated from these countries were let free. I am fully aware that they went through quarantine process. I am talking about those who were allowed to return from these countries and were let off after thermal screening at the airports. They must have been put in mandatory quarantine like the evacuated people.

[400notout]

From Facebook. Thought it is relevant hence posting.

I know the author closely.

We were finally able to wake up a bit early today. It was a hearteningly quiet and blissful tea in the balcony, with no sound of either humans or machines. Something is very humbling about a tragedy that brought about such stillness.

As we went on about our day, I kept receiving these updates from a news portal about hundreds of people, walking home. Many were criticising the authorities for a biased retrieval of Indians from foreign soil. Some went on about how these walkers should have stayed put when they have been asked to do so. All these opinion-makers, sat cozily in their rooms, with well-stocked pantries, loved ones close by and safe, with basic necessities at their sanitised hands' reach. There are too many opinions in this world, I think.

In the evening, we went to buy some vegetables. As exactly as I expected, people were out and about. Admittedly, it was a lower count for a Saturday, but for a lockdown, there were way too many people. May be they were out on business, like us, may be not. It looked way more crowded than it is supposed to and unfortunately, we were part of it. It felt wrong, guilty, almost criminal, even though we went with purpose. Our freedom came at a price we didn't even know if we had to pay or if it fell on someone else's head. Now the beauty of stillness suddenly looked superficial.

I can feel bad for those walking hundreds of kms home to reach their loved ones and grateful that I have mine close by and know that others of my tribe are safe. It's a heavy dual emotion I'm still figuring out. Opinions have ceased to exist.

[DeKay]

Originally Posted by mvadg

Flattening the curve does nothing for the ordinary Indian citizen who has no access to even mediocre healthcare.

Why do you want them to suffer because you are afraid that you or your loved ones will die if infected by this one virus?

Without lock-down the economy with be back to its sorry old state, but at least millions will have jobs and their survival assured

So, what, do we simply stop giving a damn about the invisible killer, go about our daily lives and turn a blind eye to the pile of dead bodies that'll grow larger and larger by the hour? I don't think you yourself believe the absurdity of your own statement -
Without lock-down the economy with be back to its sorry old state, but at least millions will have jobs and their survival assured

Really? What happens when all us get infected, get sick and can't show up to work anymore? Buddy, this isn't about me and my loved ones, this is about you just as much as it is about me. The virus doesn't care if you're a poor daily wage worker or the Prime Minister of Britain.

Seriously, what's your point? Is the shutdown bad? I guess you really do know better than almost all health experts, doctors, epidemiologists and leaders of the world, so in your own words, ''please explain with facts'':

1. Why and how going about business as usual will help in curbing the spread of the virus.

2. How the economy will survive when millions will get infected, infect everyone around them and show symptoms at the same time, ''Elite'' or not.


Yes the implementation of the lockdown left much to be desired, yes we failed the poor and disenfranchised of the country, yes we're in a better position to fight this than the poor, yes our country's leaders were sleeping when health experts were shouting dire warnings at the top of their lungs. Yes to all of these things. But don't kid yourself by saying that the economy wouldn't collapse and everyone would still have jobs with or without the shutdown.

There is a state chief minister in this country who says the virus can be cured by Yoga, let's vote for better leaders next time.

[rrsteer]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

Warning: Controversial Post

What I cannot comprehend is why do it with zero notice, zero preparation and planning and clearly inadequate thought on all the disruption that needs addressing. I am grappling with how giving zero notice helped the situation in any way. You act with no prior notice when you are faced with a crime or potential terrorist threat not when it is about healing and caring. What did the Govt think would go wrong if the nation was given one week to prepare? What did it prevent from happening - overcrowding, rush at stations, immigration, shortages - by pouncing with 3 hours notice. The informal sector, that employs most of our people, was dealt a body blow by DeMo. And now a second body blow.

[/i]

Sir you have raised very valid concerns. Disobeying the curfew today, I ventured out to stock on food items. On the way, I saw a lot of people - those who actually make our world go - gathered in the local police station grounds. Let me just say, ever since I am feeling very low.

Having said that, I see no alternative but to enforce a lockdown like it was done - seemingly without preparation and appearing to be knee-jerk. The reason being, pandemics by nature are extremely thick-tailed events and that renders them to be potentially existential risk for humanity. Hence the comparison with TB and conflation of different probability events (comparing death from road accidents) may not be the right way to think about it. In such cases, existential threat should drive all decision making, instead of policy decisions based on flawed epidemiological SIR models. Given, lack of treatment or vaccine for this flu, social distancing is our only offensive against it, and it needed to be implemented right away.

Regarding timing - there is no way to know how pandemics evolve - because of they are extremely thick tailed events by nature. They may also turn out to be like MERS - fatal but not threateningly contagious, or like the Indian Spine flu epidemic that barely registered. Even leaving that aside for a moment, I feel our political governance structure is such, that it would have never allowed any central government to prepare in advance. Imagine, in this case, the central government closing all borders in mid-February foreseeing how the epidemic evolved, and the hue and cry that would have been raised by opposition and citizenry alike. A governance system like Singapore - could certainly have responded in the above manner without much friction. I leave you with an informative video on this topic.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/piete...422033408-qnHn

PS: I am politically apathetic and I would hate to label myself a nationalist - given how that term is understood widely nowadays.

[Chetan_Rao]

Originally Posted by DeKay

...Is the shutdown bad?....


.... ''please explain with facts''

Excuse me for butting in to opine on a question not directed at me.

Shutdown is NOT bad. It was necessary, even CRITICAL, but shutdown isn't enough. It is a means to buy time, not an end in itself. Accepted wisdom around the world right now is lockdowns are being used to avoid overwhelming medical facilities, while in parallel ramping up facilities and equipment supplies so the curve flattens, both w.r.t reducing infection rates and the infrastructure gap between those who need care and those who get it.

Shutdown is just a timeout, not the end-game.


It's probably my limited intellect, but the point I'm missing in all the talk of 'stopping community spread' is how would we even know if/when that succeeded or failed? Based on what measure? And if we don't know, on what basis do we decide which next step to put into action?

If the lockdown isn't supplemented by aggressive testing and quarantine to ascertain some semblance of real numbers, while ramping up our medical facilities and equipment supplies in parallel, we could be sitting on a pile of bodies a mile high and claiming nobody died of COVID-19, because we genuinely wouldn't know because we never checked.

Your question then becomes rhetorical, because not only do we NOT have facts, we aren't trying to ascertain them quickly enough, before the sheer volume of ground reality makes numbers redundant, akin to rain being unable to make one wetter after a point.

[vb-saan]

Whether it was implemented hastily or otherwise, I feel the lockdown was indeed the right decision. Even those countries where people conform to the laws and regulations (much better than India) have struggled in containing the pandemic spread. And in our country with such huge population and non-compliance is a way of life for a large part of the society, this probably was the best way to contain or at least mitigate the spread. Countries with close similarities to India (in the way the population behaves) is struggling on a much higher scale without implementing a lockdown, or any kind of control measures - Indonesia as an example.

Unemployment rates and impact to the economy maybe massive, but it is possible to build it back if the population stay alive and healthy and being a young country, India's chances to bounce back is much higher.

[JithinR]

Can members in Bengaluru advice on how they are managing water supplies during this time? Even if we can go and stock up on food and other essentials, a 20L can of water does not last that long.

I am not sure of the quality of water supplied in our apartment block (don't have a TDS measuring tool). If not, for my aged Mother would have tried to just get by with the tap water for the time being. Though, I am pretty sure at this time that this lockdown is going to be extended.

I did try and get in touch with Livpure to see if they are still installing their purifiers during this time (don't have much hope on that front) and our local supermarket is no longer home delivering cans (without a scooter or a car it would mean walking over to them and rolling the can back on the road for a considerable distance ).

[Chetan_Rao]

Originally Posted by JithinR

....

I did try and get in touch with Livpure to see if they are still installing their purifiers during this time (don't have much hope on that front) and our local supermarket is no longer home delivering cans (without a scooter or a car it would mean walking over to them and rolling the can back on the road for a considerable distance ).

Same boat. My two local stores (Mysore Road area) and a couple others a bit further out ran out of stock and haven't received supplies since the lockdown started. I usually keep a spare can or two even in peacetime so my supplies lasted a bit longer. Finally had to brave venturing out yesterday, but one of the area distributors in Banashankari says only the Devanahalli bottling plant is now operational (needs corroboration), and supplies are unknown at this point.

LivPure are unable to do anything until the lockdown is in force. I'm evaluating options if supplies aren't restored sometime next week.

[deetee]

Re finding bottle water supply:
Am writing this from point of view of Hyderabad but no harm trying it there in Bangalore. Here, we have many unofficial RO plants spread across localities. Usually building/apartment watchmen have an idea of these (they know many more things than we can imagine). If you are living in Gated society, you can look for independent apartments and ask the watchman there for a nearby RO water plant. I believe after two or three tries you can get the right information.
However, given that this is summer and there may be limited supply of water tankers, a few RO plants might be closed down. If not the nearest one you can try the next closest one.

[Miyata]

Originally Posted by JithinR

Can members in Bengaluru advice on how they are managing water supplies during this time?

Originally Posted by Chetan_Rao

Same boat.

In addition to out Kent RO unit, I have got two 20 litre bottles of Bislery/Kinley. Until about a week ago, getting replacement cans was not an issue. Now, no one's delivering and no one seems to have stock of 20l bilseri/kinley.

When I drove around looking for alternate arrangements, found many places that do have these 20l cans but they are "generics" and not one of the typical branded ones!

On inquiring further and speaking with a few of them - apparently they get the cans filled at water ATMs that are distributed all around Bangalore. I haven't seem these water ATMs myself though.

What these "generic" guys do is that they will empty their filled 20l into the empty can I bring along. The charges a bit variable - ranging from 15/- to 50/- per 20l that they provide.

The branded cans itself were being sold for 90/- per 20l can (with a deposit per can for 200/- or so).

If you guys just drive around a bit, preferable between 8 - 9 am, keep an eye out for stores where you will find plenty 20l cans fairly visible. They form the alternate arrangement. Even if they refuse to give you any cans, they will fill up your empty 20l ones with no issues.

Precaution one may have to take - boil the water before consuming. Don't want to get any typhoid fever - particularly at this time, and particularly if you have kids/elderly at home.

[Red Liner]

Originally Posted by Chetan_Rao

Excuse me for butting in to opine on a question not directed at me.

Shutdown is NOT bad. It was necessary, even CRITICAL, but shutdown isn't enough. .

Bang on. I hope the Govt is making use of this time but the way things are going on national news with all the migrant population running hither thither, i wonder how long the govt can actually extend this lock down with all seriousness.

Because if they do, there will be riots and civil unrest, no thanks to the way cops have been going about their business.

[Chetan_Rao]

Originally Posted by Miyata

...

Precaution one may have to take - boil the water before consuming. Don't want to get any typhoid fever - particularly at this time, and particularly if you have kids/elderly at home.

Boiling may be my last resort. I have a chronic GI bug so I have to be very careful of what I eat & especially the water I drink if the source is unknown.

My local supplier is hopeful of things getting better next week. Else boiled water in 5L batches it is.

[Sankar]

Social distancing fail. I didnt know whether to post it here or in the funny pics thread.


Src: watsapp forward

[Rajeevraj]

Originally Posted by JithinR

I did try and get in touch with Livpure to see if they are still installing their purifiers during this time (don't have much hope on that front) and our local supermarket is no longer home delivering cans (without a scooter or a car it would mean walking over to them and rolling the can back on the road for a considerable distance ).

Originally Posted by Chetan_Rao

.

LivPure are unable to do anything until the lockdown is in force. I'm evaluating options if supplies aren't restored sometime next week.

This is becoming a serious problem in Bangalore especially in areas which rely on supply through tankers and borewells which are very deep and hence the water is high on TDS and not really consumable even with boiling.

In our apartment, for couple of known folks, the water purifier broke down and no chance of getting service. Can availability is also limited. For couple of days have been supplying them with water from our water purifier to whatever extent possible. Few other neighbours also do the same. So managing like that till the supply regularises

[V.Narayan]

All,

Lockdown, boredom, anxiety, uncertainty - I think it all is showing through in some of our posts on CV. As we go through this period, each of us at best partly informed, let this be a thread to share and learn rather than express ourselves sharply towards fellow members none of whom are, I'm sure you agree, responsible for the CV pandemic.

Originally Posted by DeKay

So, what, do we simply stop giving a damn about the invisible killer, go about our daily lives and turn a blind eye to the pile of dead bodies that'll grow larger and larger by the hour? I don't think you yourself believe the absurdity of your own statement -
Without lock-down the economy with be back to its sorry old state, but at least millions will have jobs and their survival assured
Really? What happens when all us get infected, get sick and can't show up to work anymore? Buddy, this isn't about me and my loved ones, this is about you just as much as it is about me. The virus doesn't care if you're a poor daily wage worker or the Prime Minister of Britain.

I don't think the writer of the post you refer to wishes to kill the innocent poor with indifference. I work in health care for the economically deprived. Allow me to explain. Flattening the Curve assumes the nation has a basic foundation of medical infrastructure that can cope with the influx if it was flattened and spread over a period of time. Flattening the Curve concept will work in a developed nation as the medical infrastructure exists only that it cannot cope with the extra ordinary peaks. In India, as in other poor countries, the lack of basic medical infrastructure (quantity and quality) outside the top 30 cities means that no matter how well meant our efforts are the concept does not apply to us. We have 0.65 doctors per 1000 vs USA's 2.3 and Italy's 4.3. I hope this helps.

Originally Posted by TRR

I'm not a blind supporter for the government, but the way they're being portrayed here is as if it was being run by a group of headless chickens. More than the set of ministers, I think our bureaucrats did a fairly decent of job of trying to contain the virus spread. The biggest mistake they did? Trusting Indian citizens to stay at home.

Dear @TRR, First thank you for meticulously listing out the actions GoI took with links. I am sure it will help many to get better acquainted with the action taken and the sequence. The GoI to its credit did get off to a early start. The trick they missed, and this I speak with the crutches of 20/20 hindsight, is to have not started mass testing in February itself or failing that by 1st March. But as I said with a rapidly evolving never before situation I won't be too hard on them - after all most European countries, other than Germany, also missed the boat.

What concerns me about attitude were the pronouncements of the Health Minister which could give the impression of not doing his homework well enough. Now that we have the country locked down even this period is not being used to get things onto a war footing. In the 3 hospitals that I am associated with in 3 states only yesterday, literally, yesterday, 4 days after the lockdown have we received instructions to convert 25% of the beds for Covid-19. Could this have been thought of earlier? Could some fundamentals have been prepared for before the overnight lockdown? Converting two wards for isolation is not so hard. But what about the machines, the pulmonary specialists?? - no answers. We have been told to figure out our plans. Being good citizens we will. But speaking from ground zero I would struggle to give their degree of planning, thought and preparation more than 1 mark out of 10.

Originally Posted by TRR

I think they could have done better with the migrant workers. But since I don't have a suggestion for it, I'll refrain from criticizing them for the moment.

The point marked in bold is an understatement. If a Govt indulges in knee jerk actions that cause millions to uproot themselves and try and walk back a few hundred kms to their village homes it is a sad reflection on the political leadership and their disregard for the poor whom they claim to be working for. This is the single largest home grown self created refugee like problem since partition. It is a tragic reflection of lack of any planning and preparation. Let's not even try and make excuses for this, please.

Originally Posted by TRR

Pray tell, what would have been the adequate notice period required in this instance? You say one week's time to prepare, I say one week's time for the virus to spread to incomprehensible levels and severely overburden our medical system and personnel.

Yes two weeks of prep time for the administration and a one week announcement notice for the public. That is what was needed. There is no earthly reason why the Govt could not have started its prep work on 11th March 2020. There is no reason for the Govt not to have been able to think this through in end-February /early-March for a mid-March lockdown. By not planning for it they have crash landed slap bang into just the crowding, jamming and migration to villages that was to be avoided. The damage has already been done in the last 10 to 15 days since train closures etc started to be announced with no warning.

Now tell me honestly where you think India would have ended up, if we were given a week to go out in a jolly fashion.

This is a public forum. All of us are well read. Some of us are from this field. May I request you not waste your sarcasm.

Also, this was not a sudden development and a comparison to DeMo

The comparison with DeMo was to emphasize the trend of making big bang announcements with zero homework. Same happened with GST and now CV.

in this regard is not warranted simply because nearly all major districts were shutdown or were on the verge of being shutdown much before the lockdown was announced. People refused to stock up then, because of the chalta hai attitude. Nothing would have changed with a one-week notice.

75 districts were on a partial lockdown out of about 700 districts. There is a hell of a lot more to prepare for a lockdown of 3 weeks than stocking up rations at home. Ask those who run factories, companies, manage employees, have payments in transit, need to fulfill export orders, employees and old relatives in transit, engineers on field visits, shutting down heavy machinery & boilers safely .....I could go on.

Do a lockdown and be blamed for destroying the informal sector. Don't do a lockdown and be blamed for the thousands that end up dead. It really is a "Damned if you do, damned if you don't" scenario for the government. Now I realize why some babus in the government have such thick skins.

I think my post was clear that I accept the lock down. We left it so late that no other alternative was feasible. The manner of a lockdown with zero preparation by the Govt is what I am talking of in my last post.