[mvadg]

Originally Posted by racer_ash

I only have one point to put forth. Why so much concern for the daily wagers now only during the lockdown?

I think the word to use here is "inured", we learn to just ignore the pain of others because we see it everyday and our brains can take only so much. Please remember that people like us, and by "us" I mean the privileged class who are relatively better off are making decisions for the majority who are not privileged without considering their point of view.

It is fine for you to be concerned about yourself and your loved ones and think of everyone whose circumstances are the same or similar to yours and see the lock-down as a solution (or a temporary solution). But it is not OK if you are a decision maker entrusted with doing what is best for the population as a whole. A decision maker must put his own interests aside and make a decision that is fair to everyone.

Finally, I don't expect to change anyone's views here, because opinions are made based on experience not on mere knowledge and information. So we may just have to agree to disagree.

[nikhn]

Originally Posted by mohansrides

So, what is your position exactly? Can you please clarify?

Sure. I believe what the government has done until now is right and has helped prepare the country in a better way when compared to how other countries have handled it.

I mean, you keep saying that lives will be lost due to the virus if we lift the lockdown, and then you say that you never mentioned anywhere that you are for an extended lockdown.

Extended lockdown and a lockdown forever are two different things. Since there is an improvement in the situation right now, there are some restrictions which have been lifted which I believe are fair.

I have made my position very clear. Lockdown is a bad idea and fear of the virus is worse than the virus itself. That is my position. In black and white.

Glad to hear that. I differ in the fact that you are claiming any lockdown is bad while I do not. The first two lockdowns were required in my opinion. The current lockdown is technically not a lockdown per se since there are more activities which are allowed now but the name lockdown still has held on.

So, kind sir, please tell us what you would like us do?

Nothing. I'm just giving different perspectives to think about.

Also, I did read that article about doctors and Covid patients. But, my view is that we are creating that situation. If their loved one is a Covid patient, most people I know would want to be right beside that person. Most people I know would have no problems with the risk. In fact, a lot of people are more afraid of allowing their loved ones to die alone rather than of catching the infection themselves.

Glad to hear you have so much confidence. I hope it benefits you in someway.

And yes, administrations everywhere are stocking the fear. Now that is going to come back to haunt them.

Still haven't come across such a case. Please share if you have any information.

Only the much mocked leaders of the US and Brazil have had it in them to say it like it is.

Precisely the reason they are mocked.

With this I think I would respectfully disagree with you and I hope you will surely do the same. There is nothing that can be done by complaining about it here. If you are displeased with the way the situation was handled, you are free to take it up in court. A lot of people would definitely support it I guess.

With this I would like to stop dragging this pointless discussion. I was just putting out information as it was necessary to look at both sides of the story.

[splitsecond]

Originally Posted by DigitalOne

Bill Maher on immunity for people who naively still think they would get Covid just by going out, and they would then die of Covid.

Had a good laugh , In these down times thanks for posting this. Better than any standup comedy i have ever seen. Going to share this.

[TRR]

Originally Posted by mohansrides

Of course, the lockdown has worked in a few places. In fact, I would say that in relative terms, the lockdown has helped even here in curtailing the spread. No question.

Thank your for acknowledging the time that we have bought from this lockdown. I say 'bought' because I know that it comes at a cost and isn't an indefinite solution. But a gradual reopening gives us a possibility of handling the infection avalanche that will most definitely come home to roost.

From an earlier post of yours -

Originally Posted by mohansrides

Finally. FINALLY. Someone, other than just Rahul Bajaj, is speaking up against this absolutely idiotic lockdown

So then I guess it wasn't absolutely idiotic, by your own admission now. There are most definitely issues arising out of it, but it has given us benefits, even you can't deny that.

Originally Posted by mohansrides

As of now, while we are busy quantifying disease in terms of infections and deaths, we have zero data on the cost of the mitigation effort. How many jobs lost in the near and long term? How many lives lost in the near and long term? How many people pushed into abject poverty?

I'm not reasonably sure about whether people are collecting such data, but seeing the news reports that are shared here and on other news sites, I can reasonably believe that someone is tracking this, government or otherwise. We even had the SWAN report shared earlier by others highlighting the plight of the poor.

Not denying the problems that have arisen (and definitely not underestimating them), but I believe that is why the government has opened up the economy now. Cases will arise, for sure, but we are in a much better position to deal with these than we were earlier or would have been with no lockdown.

A little side step here, but if you will allow me the liberty (and I might be going against my own words here), have you looked at Brazil's situation, where the President says - "So what? People die everyday" when asked about 5000+ deaths in his country?

You ask why some of us are afraid of what would have happened if there was no lockdown? Here, I'll quote from a news article for you -

Deaths from the coronavirus outbreak have piled up so fast in the Amazon rainforest's biggest city that the main cemetery is burying five coffins at a time in collective graves. “It's chaos here,” said Maria Garcia, who waited for three hours in a line of hearses to obtain a death certificate to be able to bury her 80-year-old grandfather, who died at dawn in his home of respiratory collapse.

Undertakers in Manaus even resorted to burying coffins one on top of the other this week, but the city stopped the practice after grieving relatives protested. In Manaus, which is accessible only by plane or boat from the rest of Brazil, corpses are accumulating in a refrigerated container improvised as a morgue freezer as they await burial.

Health authorities had been irresponsible, she told Reuters by telephone, and to make matters worse doctors were refusing to sign death certificates for people who died at home, creating a traffic jam of hearses at the only public health post providing them.

At the main Taruma cemetery, a new area has been opened where undertakers were digging rows of graves and now just trenches for five coffins at a time. The mayor's office said the city's funeral system was collapsing and running out of coffins.

Makes for a grim reading no? The biggest difference between them and us is the lockdown. Brazil has 5000 deaths so far, with a vast number further going unreported. Not a big deal, you may say, and you're right. But this is only the deaths so far. This disease hasn't run its course and they haven't even reached their peak yet.

Make no mistake, if such a situation had occurred here, it would be the poor dying by the spades. The rich would be given priority for treatment, while the poor would be left to fend for themselves. Even if we have to reopen tomorrow, due to the lockdown and the associated fears, the middle class and rich would stay home as far as possible. The poor would most definitely get back to work and I am not faulting them for it. But with the upper sections out of the way, the health infrastructure can focus on the less fortunate sections of the society going forward.

I found this interesting graph elsewhere sometime back and find it relevant to the discussions of "oh but what about other diseases and deaths". This is data regarding the deaths during the first 100 days of recent pandemics on a worldwide scale -



See where H1N1 is after 100 days and see where Covid is after 100 days. H1N1 went on to kill a reported 18,000 people over 20 months, with an unconfirmed reporting of 2,00,000+ deaths.

If we had done absolutely nothing, I don't think Covid would have painted a pretty picture for us in India here. We aren't out of the woods yet to say "Oh we've had only a 1000 deaths, why the hullabaloo". There is still a long way to go.

Originally Posted by mohansrides

A lockdown is like running and jumping into your foxhole to get immediate cover. But, once you are in the foxhole, you have to strategize and find a way to get out of there to survive by beating or outrunning the enemy. Any solution you come up with will involve exposing yourself to danger. Sure you may not make it if you break cover. But, you will definitely not make it if you remain in that foxhole.

Agreed 100% that it is not a long term solution, but you have to recognize the fact that during this lockdown, a vast majority of the population has been sensitized to breaking out of the foxhole, our infrastructure is better equipped (not 100%) to deal with more cases and we are much better positioned to keep track on future infections.

Originally Posted by mohansrides

To be clear, the lockdown itself is not the core problem. The problem is the fear that sparked the lockdown. If we do not combat that fear, we are done for good.

I would be grateful if you could clarify something in this regard for me. Initially you said in this post -

Originally Posted by mohansrides

In fact, I myself am very scared for the health of the old people I care for and for the health my children. I have not left the house for 15 straight days. And even after the lockdown is lifted, I will likely not venture out immediately.

Not attacking you, but I would be grateful if you would share as to what changed your mind in this aspect. From this post, it appears that you (like everyone else) were fearful of this disease. Is there anything specific that changed your mind?

I recall that in one of our earlier discussion we spoke of roughly 80,000 deaths worldwide. Today, less than a month later, that number is 240,000+. While it definitely isn't (yet) as severe as road accidents and whatnot, will we begin to fear this disease and take appropriate precaution only when this is the number one cause of deaths?

I just peek out of my window these days and I see people riding 2-wheelers with masks but without helmets. While it is comical, this wouldn't have happened if people weren't shown the gravity of the situation, and let's be clear, it isn't a simple flu that we can brush aside what might happen. This is purely my belief, but I doubt I'd have seen the reverence for masks, if there was no lockdown.

Originally Posted by mohansrides

Yes, I did mention herd immunity a few times. And I do think it could work. Certainly, there have been some recent statements from health experts about how the disease can only be contained when 70% of the world has been exposed along with developed individual immunities. But, let us set that aside for a minute. Because as of yet, you are right about the fact that we don't know for sure if herd immunity works.

Herd immunity may work, may not work. A few articles on the same for you to peruse, if you're so inclined. Why herd immunity may not work for India. Why herd immunity may take as much time as a vaccine? And another, which professes why it would helpful for India.

Originally Posted by mohansrides

I don't have a solution for Covid. But, I do know that a lockdown isn't one in the long term.

Every country out there is experimenting, including us. May sound harsh, but its the truth. It may just so happen that a lockdown was a wrong one. It is equally possible that a lockdown was a right choice. Let's hold our judgements till we are past this pandemic.

Again, the government has opened up the country significantly. Meaning, no one in power looks at this lockdown as the sole solution. Most businesses will face challenges if they are inter-connected to different zones. But its still better than the 100% lockdown we had before. I will refrain from commenting on the implementation, since that hasn't happened yet.

Originally Posted by mohansrides

Here is another thought for you. Whether herd immunity exists or not, if everyone gets this virus, then everyone has this virus. At least at that point, we can dispense with utterly nonsensical measures like social distancing which are completely unrealistic, not only in India, but especially in India. Just for starters, if we are to socially distance, how many buses and trains do we have to run to transport people in our crowded country? Already our highways and railway infrastructure if choked to capacity. If we go by this rule of only so many people in a bus or a train, we will have to run 10 times as many buses and trains as we do now.

Precisely why we needed to sensitize people to this disease and how to minimize the risks. If we had no lockdown and just "asked" citizens to follow precaution, the body count in India would have been far higher and it would be foolhardy to think that all of us would escape unscathed.

On other terms, is your suggestion that we embrace the risks completely and ignore social distancing and wearing masks? I am a bit confused by your statement above when you say its just not possible.

Again, the lockdown isn't the solution, I agree. The disease spread will increase, I agree. But I'd say we've done well so far, even including the huge speedbumps in implementation. I'd rather see what the people in power do next rather than blithely say "lockdown bad 100%".

On another note, here is an industrialist who thinks we've done well so far and need to focus on the road ahead. And I must say, I agree with Kiran Mazumdar Shaw's views in this aspect. Differing opinions are welcome, as always

We are extrapolating too much from other areas (Europe and the US) which have not done what we have done. I really don't think we should extrapolate data from European data, or US data or western data , she said. Mazumdar-Shaw noted that India had declared lockdown when the country had 500 positive cases, while Italy had done so when it had 9,000 cases, and the UK 6,700 cases.So the burden of disease was much higher in those countries when they enforced lockdown when compared to what we did.

And by the way, the kind of preemptive measures that India took in terms of quarantining, curfew, lockdown, surveillance and adhering strictly to lockdown protocols are something which most countries have not done , she pointed out. She recalled how health officials were calling up travelers who came from abroad for two weeks as part of strict surveillance at. The police have done an outstanding job in strict monitoring.

I would do local extrapolation of data, I would not try and build mathematical model based on European or US data. I would rather build mathematical models based on Indian data, state-wise, Mazumdar-Shaw said. She also opined that red zoning has to be made smaller, saying one cannot make classify a whole district as a red zone. You should actually start creating smaller sub-sets of red zones, because, otherwise, your whole supply chain will be blocked.

[m8002?]

Originally Posted by ABHI_1512

I guess the poll itself in the thread shows how we privileged people prefer lockdown.

Originally Posted by mvadg

As someone who is not really enthusiastic about the lockdown, let me explain my point of view (and I'm sure others against the lock-down will have a similar view).[list=1][*]All we are saying is - put yourself in the shoes of those that do not have the luxury of being "locked in" - all those daily wage earners living hand-to-mouth. Similar to what you are suggesting, can we request those supporting the lock-down to set aside all their bank accounts, shelter, comforts and every worldly possession and walk the streets without food and shelter and no money for a week and obey the lock-down command? Would you be prepared to die for saving the those sitting comfortably at home with food, shelter and entertainment?

You guys put it across very well. All of them supporting the lockdown are people who are "currently" not impacted by it. They can sit in the confines of their homes, do WFH, get paid and order goods online.
If someone who supports this lockdown is from the 3 groups mentioned below, I bow to you.

• 1. You are a small business man and are still paying all your employees full wages dipping into your assets/savings. You have 0 revenue, 0 govt. support and no clue when this nightmare ends.
• 2. You are the sole bread winner and lost your job to covid and no options to pay you bills next month. You still support the lockdown because after 3 months you are alive and can actively boost the econony.
• 3. You dont have money to pay for today's dinner ( like the millions out there). Your family is going to sleep hungry.

BTW, those pointing to other countries on lockdown ( which is milder than what we have ), also please put what their governments have done fiscally to ease the pain for the 3 categories of people I mentioned above. And compare to what people here have for from our govt.

Originally Posted by vivek95

I began thinking of the bigger picture after first hand experience of examining a lot of asymptomatic covid patients and at the same time seeing the plight of non-covid patients suffering due to shutting/scaling down of many hospitals in Mumbai. Existing hospitals are doing their best and functioning beyond capacity at times. Mumbai is the worst hit region in the entire country going by the numbers but 2 out of 3 covid patients are still asymptomatic, they run an uneventful course in the hospital and there is a big chunk of them eating up the hospital space. However, the local administrative bodies have finally started waking up to this fact and revising their protocols.

Thanks doc for bringing this out again and again. People just dont want to understand whats a -ve, +ve and asymptotic , +ve with real complications. Many people here think once they contact the virus, it is certain death and being cooped up is the only way to escape it.

[mohansrides]

I am not going to answer each of the points that you have raised because it is quite unnecessary for me to do so at this point. My old posts should suffice. But, I will answer a few.

Originally Posted by TRR

From an earlier post of yours -

So then I guess it wasn't absolutely idiotic, by your own admission now. There are most definitely issues arising out of it, but it has given us benefits, even you can't deny that.

I agreed the the lockdown has curtailed the spread. But, please don't extrapolate that to mean that I agree with it as a solution. I have never agreed with it as a solution. Not now. Not six weeks ago. Not ever.

My position right from the beginning has been 100% consistent - the lockdown is bad solution considering the costs. I have always maintained that more people would be negatively impacted by a lockdown than will be by the actual disease.

Having said that I acknowledged that the lockdown has curtailed the spread because that much is fact. But, that doesn't mean that it was the right decision. It is similar to walking somewhere instead of driving there. Eventually, you will get to the same place.

Originally Posted by TRR

I'm not reasonably sure about whether people are collecting such data, but seeing the news reports that are shared here and on other news sites, I can reasonably believe that someone is tracking this, government or otherwise.

I highly doubt it. Not just because it is inconvenient at the moment for administrators; but also because the weight of all administration and thought leadership has been placed behind the Covid battle.

Originally Posted by TRR

Not denying the problems that have arisen (and definitely not underestimating them), but I believe that is why the government has opened up the economy now. Cases will arise, for sure,

In this we are in agreement. Cases are going to rise and skyrocket over the next few months.

My point is that based on our choice of our first solution will be what we will run to each time there is a spike. All in all, we are in for a very schizophrenic manner of administration in the months to come. I pity the industry leaders and SME owners who will never get the consistent support they deserve.

Originally Posted by TRR

Makes for a grim reading no? The biggest difference between them and us is the lockdown.

Originally Posted by TRR

If we had done absolutely nothing, I don't think Covid would have painted a pretty picture for us in India here. We aren't out of the woods yet to say "Oh we've had only a 1000 deaths, why the hullabaloo". There is still a long way to go.

Originally Posted by TRR

Precisely why we needed to sensitize people to this disease and how to minimize the risks. If we had no lockdown and just "asked" citizens to follow precaution, the body count in India would have been far higher and it would be foolhardy to think that all of us would escape unscathed.

Again, the lockdown has only delayed the inevitable. Covid is not going to paint a pretty picture for us, lockdown or no lockdown. We WILL ABSOLUTELY encounter those mountains of deaths. No way around it. It is either now or later.

Originally Posted by TRR

I would be grateful if you could clarify something in this regard for me. Initially you said in this post -

Not attacking you, but I would be grateful if you would share as to what changed your mind in this aspect. From this post, it appears that you (like everyone else) were fearful of this disease. Is there anything specific that changed your mind?

Go right ahead and attack me. I couldn't care less. I gave up those concerns a long time ago. But, to answer your question, if anything, this lockdown has given us a lot of time to think and sort out our thoughts. It's like what I said. Eventually, it dawns on that soldier in the foxhole - either live, or die trying. No way around that truth. The last few paragraphs of this post should give you more detail.

Originally Posted by TRR

it isn't a simple flu that we can brush aside what might happen.

Time and again, I think that you are confusing my statements with a lack of concern on my part with regards to Covid. You could not be more wrong. Of course, this is not just a normal flu. I certainly know that. My point has always been that the cost of curing this pandemic will far outweigh the disease itself. So, please get that clearly and please don't inundate me with morbid numbers of the disease. I know all of it. I only wish someone would arm me data to respond with with regards to the widespread damage that this and other lockdowns around the world are doing.

Originally Posted by TRR

On other terms, is your suggestion that we embrace the risks completely and ignore social distancing and wearing masks? I am a bit confused by your statement above when you say its just not possible.

I am saying that it is near impossible to enforce social distancing and live our lives. Just to cite one example of the difficulty of social distancing, I mentioned our inability to use public transport which is our nation's lifeline. Masks, yes I suppose that is easy. But, the rest isn't.

[v1p3r]

Originally Posted by mvadg

As someone who is not really enthusiastic about the lockdown, let me explain my point of view (and I'm sure others against the lock-down will have a similar view).[list=1][*]All we are saying is - put yourself in the shoes of those that do not have the luxury of being "locked in" - all those daily wage earners living hand-to-mouth. Similar to what you are suggesting, can we request those supporting the lock-down to set aside all their bank accounts, shelter, comforts and every worldly possession and walk the streets without food and shelter and no money for a week and obey the lock-down command? Would you be prepared to die for saving the those sitting comfortably at home with food, shelter and entertainment?

I think this is a great suggestion. Every single person who says 'if you disagree with the lockdown, you should go and contract the virus and see if you have herd immunity' should themselves walk with no food for a couple of hundred km, or try to sleep on the street for a few weeks, with no food or money in our summer.

Originally Posted by racer_ash

I only have one point to put forth. Why so much concern for the daily wagers now only during the lockdown? Are you saying that during non lockdown days, these guys were having a great quality of life? No one even cared for these guys who silently built our houses and laid roads.

Atleast now, we have different NGOs and everyday citizens caring and providing relief to these people. Where was all this care when there was no lockdown?

Sir, I beg you to consider that now the daily wagers have no wages! 'These people' were being paid (albeit very low) for the road laying and house building. With the lockdown, there is NO economic activity and thus they are out of jobs, housing, and possibly food. I could possibly qualify as one of those 'everyday citizens' who provide some small amount of relief. Earlier, 10% of my salary was contributed to organisations educating underprivileged girl children, orphanages, etc. Now it goes to basic food relief.

Originally Posted by The Rationalist

Now about people dying, accept the fact lives of human beings are not equal anywhere. Western countries have airlifted their citizens during this lockdown from India, did we bring anyone of our own? Are they some kind of inferior Indians? .

Quick correction, doc. We actually did bring back our own before flights were banned into India, and we footed the bill as a nation, and we had oft-abused govt employees from Air India risking their lives for it. Pretty large-hearted for a poor country, I would say.

[JithinR]

A peek into what happens when people are asked to observe social distancing when there is no food to eat:

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/02/m...ntl/index.html

NOTE: Yes, I understand there are members here who think this is some conspiracy pushed by the elite to make us think the lockdown is causing economic grief to those less privileged amongst us. Not much that I can do to educate them so I don't even care about it anymore.

[Sebring]

Silently built for us? Excuse me, but the daily wagers charged me Rs 1000 per day to build a house in Bangalore (payment has to be daily EOD). Rs. 26,000 a month. But come nightfall they have their odd habits and would be broke by morning. So they themselves don't want to save up and improve their quality of life in good times. Now, should we overstretch and call them 'front-line workers'?. The road layers get 'short changed' by the contractors and that's a different story

Originally Posted by racer_ash

Why so much concern for the daily wagers now only during the lockdown? Are you saying that during non lockdown days, these guys were having a great quality of life? No one even cared for these guys who silently built our houses and laid roads.

[himarg]

Is there any official guideline regarding maids from the state Government? The RWA in my apartment is split and it is almost a stalemate now. A govt order can be a tie breaker.

[raksrules]

Not sure if right thread to ask. I have 5 return plane tickets booked from Mumbai to Bangalore for 21st May and obviously we won't be traveling. The Mumbai - Bangalore is through spice jet and return through Go air.
We have booked through make my trip website. Now there is no option to cancel these tickets and no money will be refunded too. I am looking at loss of 26K if I don't get any refund.
What happens if flights are not allowed when we have our tickets? Do we automatically get refund or airlines will keep the money?

[Mortis]

Our population is WAY too high to make it easy to find a solution. Similar problems affecting the country as a whole in the future will be worse with the ever growing number of people in the country. I'm sure there will be quite a few "coronialls" produced during the lockdown period.
Time for an extremely strict family planning initiative with one child per couple. Distribution of contraceptives and education are important.

With regards to the lockdown I think it's the only solution to SLOW the spread of the virus with no vaccine available. If this wasn't done the spread would have taken place at an absolutely alarming rate mainly due to the lack of respect for and availability of personal space. Our hygiene levels are also awful. The toll would have been tremendous.
Also in case it matters I'm a small business owner who had a major setback in Jan after a very slow year and was unable to get the ball rolling again before the lockdown started and I guess it will take some time to get started again even if restrictions are removed. Company is in the red but I'm paying my staff from my limited personal funds to tide over this period.

[sunilch]

Originally Posted by Starfire

At this rate, we'll have lakhs of cases by Mid May if not curbed. Sharing below are the projection numbers plotted on a chart and why the 21 day lock down is essential. This is the main reason why we amongst our doctor circles fear the worst for our patients and the mass population. I'm sure fellow Bhpian Dr. Vivek will agree with me.

Hey Starfire,

I know the number currently are better than the worst case scenario that you had shared but I am just curious, according to your model what should have been the number by now if there was no lockdown?

We are currently at 37K cases and are doing about 70K tests per day. Would like to know by how much have we slowed the growth.


-Sunil

[Safety is Param]

Originally Posted by raksrules

Not sure if right thread to ask. I have 5 return plane tickets booked from Mumbai to Bangalore for 21st May and obviously we won't be traveling. Now there is no option to cancel these tickets and no money will be refunded too.

Currently, per DGCA, there are no flights allowed till midnight of May 17. As per the process, Airlines will now reach out to passengers booked between now and May 17 to inform them that their flight is cancelled, and present them couple of options, sometimes three.

1. Reschedule to a later date.
2. Cancel and avail credit note, to be used within12 months.
3. Refund to original mode of payment.

Option 3 takes the most time, close to "unpredictable" in today's circumstances. I have INR 20k stuck with airlines for more than a month because I went with option 3. My tickets were booked via Amazon with Air Asia. Amazon has a tie up with Clear Trip.

As your travel date gets closer, and if flights are still grounded -

1. Watch out for an e-mail from the Airlines on available options.

2. They will ask you to approach online portals in case you booked through any of them.

[hareshjethwani]

I was wondering where the funds of the PM donations are being used. The labourers who are being sent back, the government can't even fund them for their journey?