[dragonfire]

Originally Posted by racer_ash

Also, it would be interesting to see how the same results will be 15-20 days down the line when the cases rise exponentially (God forbid) due to people going out in full swing right now. It is going to be interesting for sure.

The numbers have already started climbing at an alarming rate. Yesterday we had more than 3500 cases. Today we will cross the half-a-lakh mark. And we are only starting the relaxed lockdown. At this rate, in the next 1-2 weeks there would be absolute mayhem.

Better go out now an buy as much rations as possible and lock yourselves up. This is going to take a long time.

[joslicx]

Originally Posted by mvadg

Really happy to hear this!
Hope these are not temporary "medical infrastructure" that will be gone in a few months. Because it is not just the SARS-COV2 that we should be targeting in our country. Somehow, the locations of such camps don't seem to suggest a long term plan.

Well in a very short time of mere weeks you can only erect some basic temporary infrastructure only. Its not like you can setup a proper full fledged working hospital in such a short time. Also you cannot possibly hire doctors or other healthcare professionals in a short time. And anyway, we have a huge shortage of doctors. Its not like there are lot of them sitting idle at home.

Healthcare involves costs. Govts will have to commit to investing in the costs as well. So there is a budget aspect. And healthcare is a state subject. And largely our state govts are bankrupt. They dont have the finances to commit to scaling up and setting up quality medical infrastructure. Money is a big big challenge if you want to do anything in India.

[turbo]

So, I have a question.

Why are there trains being arranged for migrant workers to go back home, if the lockdown is soon going to be lifted? Something doesnt add up.

[Chetan_Rao]

Originally Posted by turbo

...
Why are there trains being arranged for migrant workers to go back home, if the lockdown is soon going to be lifted? Something doesnt add up.

Not all of them are going home, and there's no guarantee all of them will have work whenever the lockdown is lifted, if they stay back.

Laborers contracting with longer-term work (construction, public works etc.) may get back to work gradually as restrictions are lifted, but the small-scale odd-job stuff in the informal sector (restaurant staff, roadside stalls, shop assistants, delivery boys etc.) is probably not returning for a while, if at all.

[doxinboy]

Originally Posted by turbo

Why are there trains being arranged for migrant workers to go back home, if the lockdown is soon going to be lifted? Something doesnt add up.

Migrants typically have small land holdings in their native and go for atleast 3 months to help till the land and take care of it. But income from land alone can't sustain their livelihood so they migreat to cities and towns in search of avenues to make ends meet. Whether Corona or not, this is an annual trend.

[Cyborg]

Originally Posted by turbo

Why are there trains being arranged for migrant workers to go back home, if the lockdown is soon going to be lifted? Something doesnt add up.

Because the lockdown is not going to be lifted till the end of May or something like 1000 to 1800 open with restrictions and 1800 to 1000 complete lockdown. Positive cases must be expected to go thru the roof as the government is preparing with more hospitals, beds and ventilators.

With the way cases are increasing everyday and now with the crowds due to liquor sales going out of control this seems to be the only way.

Cheers

[m8002?]

Originally Posted by Carpainter

Problem is people are not used to seeing this countdown of no of death from other diseases and so it seems like covid is killing more people than all other diseases which is not the case. If we could find statistics of how many people died from some other disease during the same period in the last five years, we might come to a conclusion that covid is not as major a problem as is projected. I'm no expert but I'm sure a lot more people die from cancer, tuberculosis, thalassemia, dengue etc. every year than this flu. Either way, we will have to learn to live with it as getting a vaccine is probably a long time away. So it's only a matter of time when the govt. will think of lifting the lockdown as I can safely assume we can't live in economic lockdown till a vaccine is found which may take 2-3 years. And without a vaccine, this thing is not going to vanish on its own.

This is a good idea. We should have the tickers for TB, Smoking, Road deaths and others full time in all the channels. And along with that the list of people who are dying of hunger, malnutrition and lack of proper medical facilities.

That would give people a perspective of where Covid-19 stands in the hierarchy and also what the various governments are doing to tackle the other diseases.

[hareshjethwani]

Originally Posted by mvadg

Here's the first move:

Fuel price hike | Delhi government raises VAT; petrol up by Rs 1.6/litre, diesel by Rs 7.1

The government has increased VAT on petrol/diesel, and is charging 70% on MRP of liquor, few more things will follow. I would like to know of this is some kind of black marketing or what ! Instead, not declaring a package for the people, they are pulling out more. And if some people sell over the MRP it is labelled as black marketing ! I am in no way supporting those sort of people but what is the government trying to prove ?

[luvDriving]

We are in Lockdown 3.0 (or OpeningUp 1.0 whatever the real deal is) and there is still no single source of truth. No one knows what the real rule is at the ground level.

The central government says one thing, the state govt adds its own spin, the district collector and the commissioners have their own ideas and the local police do as they see fit. In Pune its chaos as usual with some parts being completely open while others in complete lockdown. Here where I live, it is in the orange zone but the local police has decided that lockdown will go on as per earlier norms.

Hence I had to step out today at 09.45 am to stand in line at the local grocery shop which opens at 10. I finally got home at 11 after getting stuff to last this week.

[The Rationalist]

See what is the ground reality of Covid testing in India. This is from my home state Kerala, where currently there are only 35 active cases and no new cases for last 2 days. The said patient was tested on his 6th visit to a hospital. If this is what is being done in Kerala, I shudder to think about other states.

Do any of you wonder now why cases are increasing daily? Don’t argue that Government is doing blah, blah. Infrastructure, my foot. If you can’t test a person in his second visit with URTI, you have no right to lock this country down.

NB: Patient P17 died yesterday.

[Miyata]

Originally Posted by The Rationalist

If you can’t test a person in his second visit with URTI, you have no right to lock this country down.

NB: Patient P17 died yesterday.

Au contraire, isn't that precisely among the reasons to have a shutdown/lockdown?

I am resoundingly against the lockdown extension, but the first lockdown, I thought, was intended for this very purpose - keep the cases low to levels that may be manageable by the creaking medical infrastructure of the country that has not kept pace with the times (in terms of expanse, infrastructure development, number of medical personnel, etc).

Without that first lockdown they possibly might have had to turn away lot more people from testing.

It is of course another matter that enough ground work wasn't done in the interim (of the lockdown) to ensure testing and care infrastructure gets updated to handle the situation.

[The Rationalist]

Originally Posted by Miyata

Au contraire, isn't that precisely among the reasons to have a shutdown/lockdown?
Without that first lockdown they possibly might have had to turn away lot more people from testing. .

The testing methodology is flawed. In Kerala, a single person underwent the test 42 days for RT-PCR to become negative. RT-PCR will become negative only after long time, but infective period is only 14 days. What’s the point of wasting resources when it’s futile to wait for the test to become negative, when we are denying testing for those needed?

[Lobogris]

Originally Posted by dragonfire

The numbers have already started climbing at an alarming rate. Yesterday we had more than 3500 cases. Today we will cross the half-a-lakh mark. And we are only starting the relaxed lockdown. At this rate, in the next 1-2 weeks there would be absolute mayhem..

The main reason for cases going up is more testing. We have an approximate 4.25% positive rate at the moment. Now we are doing almost 100,000 tests a day and thus about 4k are positive. Earlier we were doing 50k a day and were finding around 2k positive. If tomorrow we start doing a million tests a day, we will add 50k new cases per day. The more you go looking for something the more you will find it. Of course, testing increases as the disease spreads but I believe real figures in each country are around 10 to 30 times more than what is believed. This has been accepted by experts and officials in many nations. So the statistical picture you see in most countries is basically one to two months behind reality.

[mohansrides]

Originally Posted by Lobogris

The main reason for cases going up is more testing. We have an approximate 4.25% positive rate at the moment. Now we are doing almost 100,000 tests a day and thus about 4k are positive. Earlier we were doing 50k a day and were finding around 2k positive. If tomorrow we start doing a million tests a day, we will add 50k new cases per day. The more you go looking for something the more you will find it. Of course, testing increases as the disease spreads but I believe real figures in each country are around 10 to 30 times more than what is believed. This has been accepted by experts and officials in many nations. So the statistical picture you see in most countries is basically one to two months behind reality.

Absolutely spot on.

One more detail. As the absolute number of tests conducted increases, the percentage of cases turning positive typically drops, but the number of total positives keeps on increasing.

Just FYI, scary as the thought maybe, at the current moment, if out of curiosity, any one of us goes for a test despite not feeling sick, there is a very real likelihood that we will test positive.

[_chikku]

Originally Posted by The Rationalist

The said patient was tested on his 6th visit to a hospital. If this is what is being done in Kerala, I shudder to think about other states.

Is that a sheer negligence or lack of awareness ? what do you think ? did not expect that from model state Kerala.

NB: Patient P17 died yesterday.

This is not in the official figures yet. Where did you get the info from ?