[DCEite]

Originally Posted by ABHI_1512

Friends, this COVID is going to stay here and almost everyone is going to be infected at some point or the other. The sooner we realise this, the sooner it will be to accept the fact that we will have to go through this pandemic at some point of time.

What is your definition of "almost everyone is going to be infected".

90% of population ?
80% of population ?
50% ?


To put things into perspective, i collected data of some countries where new corona virus cases are on a downhill trajectory to find out how much percentage of population was or is going to be ultimately affected.

1. Italy:

Current number of cases 2.18 lacs
Trend, going down, almost around 1300 per day cases currently (peak was around 6000 cases per day)
Rough projection of how many more in total will be affected before the pandemic ends completely in the country: Lets say, 4 lacs.

Population of Italy: 6.04 Cr

% of affected even if 4 lacs are affected: 0.66 %


2. Spain:

Current number of cases 2.24 lacs
Trend, going down, almost 2500 cases per day (peak was around 9000 new cases per day)
Estimate of how many in total will be affected in future: Lets say, 6 lacs (over pessimistic estimate)

Population of Spain: 4.69 Cr

% of population to be affected by COVID-19: 1.3 %

I am not even talking about China or South Korea or other countries where the disease is already contained and considering their total infections/population ratio it would be minuscule.


Now the question is what makes us think that in India , Majority of population will be affected ? I heard or read somewhere a figure of 60% ! Not sure from where and why these assumptions?

[v1p3r]

Bangalore police's stellar run continues.

https://twitter.com/Sowmyareddyr/sta...83996400513024

The tweet comes from an MLA, in case you were wondering.

[paragsachania]

Originally Posted by v1p3r

Bangalore police's stellar run continues.

https://twitter.com/Sowmyareddyr/sta...83996400513024

The tweet comes from an MLA, in case you were wondering.

Especially the one donning the Police helmet, Bangalore police has clarified this morning that the said "cop" is not a cop and only the one in uniform seen in the video is a cop.

As per reports, investigations are on self Proclaimed cop as well as the actual cop on duty.

[v1p3r]

BLR must be the only city I know where a "cop" who is not a cop can still wear a police helmet, complete with insignia (seen in the video).

I am impressed at the self-restraint showed by the other policeman, while the "cop" continues to kick those boys and verbally abuse their mothers.

[ABHI_1512]

Originally Posted by DCEite

What is your definition of "almost everyone is going to be infected".

90% of population ?
80% of population ?
50% ?



Now the question is what makes us think that in India , Majority of population will be affected ? I heard or read somewhere a figure of 60% ! Not sure from where and why these assumptions?

The most important thing missing in the puzzle is that not everyone is being tested and therein lies the entire story. Most of the cases which are coming positive now are asymptomatic, so you will never get to know who is COVID positive until the test happens. May be even I am carrying the virus but since I am maintaining the distance and taking precautions I am not spreading it to that many places or touch points. The numbers you quoted are of selected size who were tested. Unless and until the testing happens to the whole of population, you will never get to know the real picture. My saying that everybody will be infected counts for nothing if everyone was tested and results known but until then I will stick the neck out to say what I said!

[splitsecond]

Originally Posted by The Rationalist

What’s your source of this statement? India has 1 death for 1 million population, USA 217 for 1 million. And Kerala has 0.09 death for 1 million population. You can’t simply make your own conclusions. The above thing is verified by eminent Epidemiologists in India. Please don’t tell the number of positive cases is 49,000 and number of deaths is 1600 in India as we are testing very less. Number of positive has no significance in Indian context.

.

What i meant is once cases goes up death rate percentage will go up, at that time mortality rate wont be easily manageble. Cases is india is still low may be around 1.5 lakhs, things will heat up in a month or so, with daily death much higer than any other country, lets hope people will follow some social distancing measures to bring that down.And Keralas case is like Arai fuel efficiency, availability of icu beds not challanged yet, but once cases goes up like 1 lakh or more mortality rate wont be. 09 thats for sure.

[turbo]

I think we already have had enough of an opinion on the current poll, and it's pretty much split 50-50 with about 5 votes in them (negligible)

Can we update the poll to the question
"do you want the lockdown to be lifted on the 17th of May, or do you want it to continue?"

[rjainv]

I think that question is contextual to where the person voting belongs to.
Guys in green zone would say lift lockdown in their area.
Guys in red zone would most likely say continue lockdown with some relaxation.

Perhaps we should change poll to capture zone dependent choice?

[DCEite]

Originally Posted by rjainv

Guys in green zone would say lift lockdown in their area.
Guys in red zone would most likely say continue lockdown with some relaxation.

Maybe that's what will actually happen post 17th May.

Red zones will become Orange.
Orange zones would become what today is Green Zone.

And lockdown be lifted entirely from current Green zones.

[JithinR]

SOP Summary for travellers to Karnataka for symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals.

https://twitter.com/DHFWKA/status/12...694217728?s=19

[BenjiRoss]

One of the things lockdown and restrictions should have achieved is to get people accustomed to a lifestyle of safe physical distancing, avoiding crowding, being organised in shopping and minimising physical interactions. This appears to have failed as it depended on citizens understanding and acknowledging the importance of these concepts at the time of a pandemic. Even with restrictions slightly eased people simply crowd and behave like the virus is not a danger anymore. Things that can be achieved without crowding and safely are still done in an unsafe manner. This is worrying as it means there will be more uncontrolled spread of the virus that the system may not handle. A health and infrastructure system that is overloaded means more mortality.

[The Rationalist]

Originally Posted by splitsecond

Kerala’s case is like Arai fuel efficiency, availability of icu beds not challenged yet, but once cases goes up like 1 lakh or more mortality rate wont be. 09 thats for sure.

Kerala as of now has 5000 ICU beds. If virus spreads all over Kerala we will have 5,000,000 infected people, 1,000,000 infected people requiring hospitalisation and 1,00,000 requiring ICU care spread over 6 months in worst case scenario. That will amount to 5000 ICU beds daily, if each person stays 10 days in ICU. That’s the absolute worst case scenario. I think people who are so afraid should build underground bunkers and live out the rest of their lives there! All the worldly maladies can be kept at bay.

For those who are living in distorted reality, as per the National Family Health Survey (NFHS)-4 (2015-16), 35.7 per cent children below five years are underweight, 38.4 per cent are stunted and 21 per cent are wasted in the country. India has 1/3 of world’s malnourished children, who are the future of our country. What this lockdown will do to them is anybody’s guess. As they belong to the lowest socioeconomic class, nobody battles as eyelid. They are only needed to clean our households and institutions, build our homes and cities, grow our food and then become invisible.

[mohansrides]

Originally Posted by humyum

Played this like a game at the start, but by the end of it with every question it dawned upon me that these are the harsh realities which even if I tried, I cannot put myself to image what it could be like......Saw reports of migrants walking on railway tracks in Mumbai today on the news channel, felt pathetic, we have betrayed the poor.

Don't beat yourself up too much. You didn't create this terribly unequal world. And to be fair, neither did the lockdown. But, it certainly has brought out all the contrasts into stark relief.

Think back to that movie "The Day After Tomorrow" wherein, instead of being distributed over many decades, all the consequences of global warming come calling in one highly compressed timeframe. That is essentially what the lockdown has done for our poor. Their life is typically a slow slide into abject misery. But inexorable as it is, the slowness of that slide does give some people with force of will, foresight, energy, and just plain luck, to hustle themselves into a better position in life. But, the lockdown shut all avenues for them abruptly, without warning and without recourse. So, we are now seeing all that misery play out in front of us

Originally Posted by paragsachania

...After all, we can't ask residents to visit a hospital for something as simple as mild fever. Furthermore, who knows there can be residents who are totally asymptomatic and may have perfectly normal body temperature and roaming around within your apartment.

It is always good to act sensible during these times and take the right calls rather than go with the herd mentality....

Absolutely correct. One question though. What do you do for domestic help? Have they started coming back to your society? What if they show a mild temperature when they enter? I am asking because they don't necessarily live in the society and with their frequency of visits multiplied by the number of houses, the logistics could quickly overwhelm you guys.

Originally Posted by rjainv

I think that question is contextual to where the person voting belongs to.
Guys in green zone would say lift lockdown in their area.
Guys in red zone would most likely say continue lockdown with some relaxation.

Not true. I live in a red zone. Have never wanted a lockdown from day 1.

By the way, all of Mumbai is a red zone. I read somewhere that for a red zone to become an orange, we need 21 days to pass by without a new case. At this rate, Mumbai may come out of red zone status sometime in 2075.

A lockdown may be a tactical tool in some very specific scenarios. But, for this virus and for our country, a lockdown is the most stupid idea which does more damage than it does good. By now, we know this for sure.

[rjainv]

Yes I fully agree. Lockdown is being used as an easy tool by govt. What should have been the last resort was our first response, and has devastated the economy right from get go. People are probably already burnt out and won't take anymore such measures seriously.

[DCEite]

In a bit of a breaking news, Indian railways has started gradual resumption of passenger trains from May 12 on some select routes. Tickets can only be booked on IRCTC.

Signs that things are opening up in a good way now.