[kiku007]

Originally Posted by srishiva

People are saying lockdown was wrong or did not work now. If they were visionaries they should have said so when it was imposed.

Our wise men are always retrospectively active. They wait and then come out in droves. Its anybody's guess on what they would say if lockdown was not done and situation would have been bad.

From the outset, many have continuously raised concerns surrounding this ill-planned and even worse executed so-called lockdown.

I do agree that not everything that Rajiv Bajaj says is gold. He's known for making some flamboyant statements in the past which he shouldn't have. But are you going to hold that against him for stating something that's supported with hard data?

1. It was a porous lockdown.
2. Flattened the wrong curve.

Stop vilifying the messenger and look at the validity of the message he carried.

[bluevolt]

Originally Posted by karan561

Rajiv Bajaj thinks by making dramatic statements will make him Elon Musk of India, let me remind him this;

Attachment 2015420

After years of development/thoughts he made a car/quadricycle which looked like this ^

Priced around INR 2.5L to get to a top speed of 70 km/h.

Hence his thoughts, dont matter !

No offence intended but more than his statement, your post is appearing very well to be dramatic. His statement has nothing to do with his quadricycle. Even Ratan Tata made a quadricycle once but that doesn't mean his thoughts doesn't matter.
It doesn't matter if Bajaj makes such quadricycle or ISRO rocket, the point he has made is very much relevant and true. The current scenario totally supports whatever he is saying.

[ABHI_1512]

Originally Posted by Thad E Ginathom

Lockdown is over (nearly). This conversation should be too... Nearly, perhaps.

We need a new thread for the next phase...

Absolutely agree, nothing like some new gum to chew on

Originally Posted by karan561

Rajiv Bajaj thinks by making dramatic statements will make him Elon Musk of India, let me remind him this;
Hence his thoughts, dont matter !

If making dramatic statements is the criteria then I guess we have better candidates here in India and if past statements make someone’s present thoughts irrelevant then I shudder to think of only one name being irrelevant !!

Fact of the matter is what Rajiv Bajaj has been saying all along, the same views can also be found in this very thread only including mine. May be we were in a minority, but some of us were always against this shutdown of the country and that too when the timing was wrong all along. Lots of water has passed since the lockdown started and I guess now the results of the lockdown are there for all to see. So Mr Bajaj is nearly right when he says that the wrong curve has been flattened !

[vivek95]

Originally Posted by Mr. Nobody

If say a Covid patient travels in your car and we leave it parked for 3 days. Do we still need to sanitize the car or will the virus if any have died by then?

Leaving it for 3 days/72 hours should suffice. No need to sanitise.

[Thad E Ginathom]

Originally Posted by ABHI_1512

Absolutely agree, nothing like some new gum to chew on

Thanks. I just remembered it is not really, fully, actually over until 30th. It's even there in the thread title. So we have another twenty days to discuss whether or not.

[Nalin1]

Originally Posted by Thad E Ginathom

Thanks. I just remembered it is not really, fully, actually over until 30th. It's even there in the thread title. So we have another twenty days to discuss whether or not.

It will not be over even after 30th. Many many activities will start, many many people and vehicles on the road!. But still the key word is 'Lockdown'.

An announcement that the lockdown is over means it is the start of the post covid era (in our minds of course, not in reality). Out go the masks, sanitizers and whatever little distancing is being practised until now .

[srishiva]

Originally Posted by kiku007

From the outset, many have continuously raised concerns surrounding this ill-planned and even worse executed so-called lockdown.

I do agree that not everything that Rajiv Bajaj says is gold. He's known for making some flamboyant statements in the past which he shouldn't have. But are you going to hold that against him for stating something that's supported with hard data?

1. It was a porous lockdown.
2. Flattened the wrong curve.

Stop vilifying the messenger and look at the validity of the message he carried.

I dont remember him saying the same before. Maybe he was not asked before is what you could say He has analyzed the data retrospectively and cant be called a messenger.

Some like Narayan Murthy said it much before the data was available.

Originally Posted by Chetan_Rao

You may disagree with the guy, but he's been fairly consistent in his opinion of lockdown from the start.

This article is dated March 2020, and he isn't saying anything different now.

Thanks. But he is also saying lockdown public places, keep seniors at home etc. I believe he might be thinking the impact to his business is the un-necessary step in the lockdown. Again, its easy to analyze now.

I dont disagree with the guy. Just this aspect. We have a historian from Bengaluru who also jumps to writing articles after something has happened. But then he is a historian and has to do it that way

It was a damned if you dont, damned if you do kind of situation. Except a handful of countries whose population is close to one our cities, most countries did the same I guess.

[mohansrides]

Originally Posted by srishiva

I dont remember him saying the same before. Maybe he was not asked before is what you could say He has analyzed the data retrospectively and cant be called a messenger.

Some like Narayan Murthy said it much before the data was available.

Actually Rajiv Bajaj was the first to speak up against the lockdown.

Here is his quote on April 9th. This was two weeks after we began lockdown 1.0 -

https://www.theweek.in/news/biz-tech...-lockdown.html


Narayana Murthy spoke up much after Rajiv Bajaj did. Almost 3 weeks later. On May 1st to be exact -

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com...1.cms?from=mdr


I am not against Murthy. But I request that you do some research before posting. In fact, Rajiv Bajaj’s quote from April 9th has featured in several posts on this thread.

More importantly, there are the members of this forum; none of us may be as pre-eminent as Rajiv Bajaj or Narayana Murthy. But, plenty of us have been making the points that these gents are making in the public discourse; and we brought these points up for discussion much before these gents did. This is the truth.

For example, I have always maintained that we should not take WHO’s recommendations as the only course of action -

https://www.team-bhp.com/forum/shift...ml#post4801638 (India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020)

https://www.team-bhp.com/forum/shift...ml#post4787781 (India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020)

Now, we are coming to terms with that reality. And although I never imagined that I would give Pakistan credit for anything, they actually said that exact thing today -

https://www.hindustantimes.com/world...SCX0zZTFN.html


Bottom line - plenty of people, both prominent and mango, have predicted the dire outcomes of the lockdown well before those outcomes happened. Actually, one need not be a genius to do so.

[msdivy]

Originally Posted by mohansrides

Bottom line - plenty of people, both prominent and mango, have predicted the dire outcomes of the lockdown well before those outcomes happened. Actually, one need not be a genius to do so.

This is from former RBI Governor, the video & article published on March 26th, the Day-2 of lockdown - India’s 21-Day Lockdown May Not Necessarily Contain Coronavirus

Also from the same article,

India’s weak infrastructure could also make transferring money, food, and supplies to the poor - whose livelihoods have been battered by the lockdown - difficult

This is exactly what the migrant crisis was about.

[Miyata]

Originally Posted by Thad E Ginathom

So we have another twenty days to discuss whether or not.

That and the possibility of extended lockdowns (or curfews) we are to witness in the coming days.

Still a rumor, but the winds seem to be changing in Delhi political corridors and a month long curfew could be in the offing! Still a rumor and no final word yet.

[fordday]

At the risk of being called out, I am quoting myself.
Swaminathan Aiyar argued very coherently how we will end up with worst of both worlds.

Originally Posted by fordday

Swaminathan Aiyar wrote on April 19 that if we do not ease the lockdown now we will get the worst of both worlds, economy and pandemic.
Quoting from his article
"Data is too limited and suspect to prove or disprove the Imperial College model. Maybe the disease is less lethal and fast-spreading than the model predicts. Maybe it is less effective in tropical countries. Nobody really knows its medical outcomes. But we do know its economic outcome will be dreadful." Link

His words are slowly and painfully turning out to be true.

Fordday.

Originally Posted by mohansrides

Actually Rajiv Bajaj was the first to speak up against the lockdown.

Here is his quote on April 9th. This was two weeks after we began lockdown 1.0 -

Bottom line - plenty of people, both prominent and mango, have predicted the dire outcomes of the lockdown well before those outcomes happened. Actually, one need not be a genius to do so.

Actually who could not see it coming is a genius of some other sort.

[ABHI_1512]

I was vilified in my friends circle when I said that the idea of lockdown is vague and more so when you have done it within a time frame of four hours. The basic idea of lockdown was defeated even before it was properly implemented when scores of people started to gather and bang utensils during the first dress rehearsal of the lockdown. Even after the lockdown, the lighting of candles and lamps took a shape of something else altogether when people thronged the streets carrying fire sticks and what not !!

People totally forgot the premise of the lockdown since the numbers were very low until then. Now that the numbers have risen, suddenly people were taking notice but the funny part is that the lockdown has now almost ended across the country sans some states and cities where relaxations were provided.

I don’t see something extra that has been done after the shutting of the country for almost three months now. Yes, some hospitals beds might have increased but that’s about it. Railways made some Covid coaches or quarantine coaches with much fan fare and spending tax payer’s money and now they are again dismantling the coaches to go back to regular ones without even using it once !!

My simple point is what people are doing now ( like going out wearing masks and taking precautions) could have been done earlier as well while the testing being done simultaneously without shutting down the whole country. The talk that medical facilities will be ramped up during the lockdown was so vague anyways. The end of the lockdown will not mean the end of the virus, so my question now - what after the lockdown ?

[AirbusCapt]

Lockdown made sense when the government increased beds (which they did) and increased testing (failed miserably). Doing only one and not the other meant the lockdown was a wasted opportunity which came at an immense cost (screwing up the economy). If someone is to be blamed, blame the top man. All the singing, dancing and dramatic dialogues are meaningless if there is no concrete plan of action.

[Thad E Ginathom]

Originally Posted by ABHI_1512

My simple point is what people are doing now ( like going out wearing masks and taking precautions) could have been done earlier... ... ...

Could it have been? Would it have been? Did you ever try explaining to somebody that they faced the chance of death every time they took a blind bend on the wrong side of the road?

I think that a large number of people have come to take the virus seriously over the past few weeks. I think that, without the experience of lockdown, very few would have.

I also think that if lockdown had been really effective, and numbers had hardly increased, people would not take anything seriously post-lockdown, except being free at last.

Like everyone else, with or without maths, I am, of course, just guessing.

[poloman]

It does not need to be an Einstein to understand that GDP curve will flatten once the lock down is announced. So no surprises there.

But the effect on number of cases is really shocking. Every one expected a curve like that of UK or Italy.
Why cases are going up in India? The following curve will explain to some extent.

The sudden bumps in the curve clearly coincide with the phases of lock downs in India. Things were pretty much in control till end of April. Almost 35 days in to the strictest lock down phases 1 and 2. Then you can see sudden jumps which may be coinciding with the loosening of the lockdown measures, huge migrant movement etc.Jump in testing also may be a reason.

In smaller countries like UK and Italy the time would have been good enough to flatten the curve, but not in India with 10-20 times population. Also none of these countries had crores of people congregating and moving across the country throwing social distancing norms to winds.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...ndia-and-world
Image courtesy