[Cyborg]

Originally Posted by poloman

I have decided not to post any more on COVID threads.
This can happen to any of us.
False bravado and over confidence can lead to very tragic results. The only thing we can do is stay safe.

Absolutely agreed Poloman!

People dealing in percentages and numbers, “only” 3% or 4% is the death rate etc have not seen or had anyone close to them getting infected and dying. It’s very easy to talk that way when you are not involved and things are not personal.

Last night one of my friends passed away at 4am due to Covid, he was in his mid-fifties. His family started allowing their maid servant in the house a week or so ago. When she did not come for two days they discovered she had Covid. By then the damage was done and we lost a lovely human being.

Be reasonably afraid and stay safe.

[mvadg]

Originally Posted by naveen.raju

Saw a video of a guy travelling from Dubai (I think) on his way to Cochin. He was in quarantine for a week in Delhi. Nobody called him to check on his health nor visited him. During his check out from the hotel, they issue him with a certificate stating that he was in quarantine and Dr XXXX visited and confirmed that he is covid -ve. The fact is the dude hasn't even seen that doctor.

This is how the SARS-COV2 entered India in the first place and spread while our government officials slept, and even after the alarm was sounded, we behaved with our usual "chalta hai". We will never learn. I am sure the next pandemic is around the corner and we will see a repeat of this fiasco again - I pray that I am wrong.

It is time to enforce wearing of a mask on 100% of our population with new studies strongly supporting it for significant reduction in transmission of the virus.

[proton]

Originally Posted by Miyata

We will all benefit from more details. Lack of conversations on the topic will never be a "safe practice".

Hope the relatives recover fast and get well soon.

The only thing wrong with his view that posts are dangerous for being made by unqualified people, is it being incomplete, by not giving an example.

So let's try to help out. Note that only one aspect is being dealt with. However, that itself has dependencies on various other related aspects, revealing how difficult it is to make rebuttals and why uninformed views are so dangerous; they can influence because they are so difficult to challenge, and so remain in view.

Lets examine this claim:

But with all due respect, this debate is not just about people getting sick. It is about forcing others to give up their livelihoods because a small portion of people are getting sick and an even smaller portion are succumbing to the illness.

The livelihoods being deprived is a result of popular outcry against allowing people travelling to work, the so called lockdown. Let's remember that this step was advised by doctors who begged people not to force them to choose who to give limited life saving resources to. Post lockdown, nothing has changed: The resources are still limited and already out of reach to the “Small portion”.

One may say that becoming agitated over the reports, both second hand and first hand, of people becoming not just observers of the statics, but part of the them, and asking for corrective action is moot, because no corrective action in the form of further lockdown and building up of resources is possible, but that is not what we are asking for. We are advising people not to post encouragement to live life normally. Rather, stay at home if you can afford it, venture out for essentials only, take all precautions, wear masks, because in confined spaces like a supermarket, the virus load builds up from the mere breathing out of those in that space.

This post is made assuming all points were covered. However, when even posts made by qualified care givers are nuanced and conditional, that's admittedly a big assumption. Highlighting the danger of making definitive views on an issue, especially when the risk involved is putting people in harm’s way.

I understand that people are exposed to harm when they venture out and becoming infected through airborn or contact point virus transmission, or when household members venture out and are similarly affected. That's not rocket science.

[vivek95]

Originally Posted by poloman

I have decided not to post any more on COVID threads. One of my relatives in his forties in Chennai developed fever and breathlessness suddenly. His condition deteriorated and is admitted to hospital now. His wife also is covid positive. This can happen to any of us.

We are ill informed and qualified to comment on the seriousness or lack of it or the mortality of the virus. False bravado and over confidence can lead to very tragic results. The only thing we can do is stay safe.

This is surely sad to know but I sincerely hope your relative pulls through this with treatment strategies getting better and newer experimental drugs being approved for emergency use. Keep your fingers crossed and pray God. Sir, with all due respect to you, there was a lot I had typed to give you some perspective from being in the frontline, but I also decided not to post, because the timing is just not appropriate and the covid scare is so wide spread and successful in establishing a strong foothold in the minds of public that there is no way out now. Please try to keep a positive outlook, people are making their way out of ventilators as old aged as even 75-80. So take care and wishing your relative a speedy recovery.

[Miyata]

Originally Posted by proton

posts are dangerous for being made by unqualified people, is it being incomplete, by not giving an example.

While the context for the post was incidental, the thought really was transcendental!

[Hopefully people will choose to have conversations (even difficult ones) rather than abandon it for whatever the choosing!]

I agree with you. Half knowledge is surely dangerous. We 'know enough' to keep ourselves from harms way and should choose to do so.

My leaning is more towards letting even half knowledge come through. Wisdom of the crowd; deliberating on it; putting many puzzle pieces together will eventually help resolve the puzzle itself.

If the means of transmission in this case is isolated, it would become a stronger reminder for most of us and not just remain something in the back of the head liable to slip away at times...making it a bit more personalized!

The ultimate goal of many researchers is to develop a personalized risk score — so that a person who has covid-19, or remains vulnerable to catching the disease, would have some idea of how to navigate the pandemic.

an international team searching the genomes of “outliers” — patients younger than 50 who had no known preexisting conditions, but were hospitalized with life-threatening cases of covid-19. They’re looking for unusual gene variants that these patients have in common.

the mode of transmission is key to understanding the severity of the disease.

Source

[TwinAlco]

Originally Posted by mvadg

This is how the SARS-COV2 entered India in the first place and spread while our government officials slept, and even after the alarm was sounded, we behaved with our usual "chalta hai". We will never learn. I am sure the next pandemic is around the corner and we will see a repeat of this fiasco again - I pray that I am wrong.

It is time to enforce wearing of a mask on 100% of our population with new studies strongly supporting it for significant reduction in transmission of the virus.

Sir not making any personal attack but staying in Bangalore it is easy for enforcing wearing of mask.

Trust me at temperatures over 42 degrees and 90% humidity it is almost impossible to wear any kind of mask for any long duration. Plus the mask will completely get wet by perspiration which will itself render the mask ineffective and act as a magnet to droplets and dust. For field workers who are out there this is not a feasible solution. Plus in rural areas where 10 people travel together in an auto due to lack of public transport it is impossible for any kind of social distancing.

Its better if we come back to normalcy as soon as possible as these lockdown measures are simply not sustainable. The demand has suffered a huge shock which will push many people towards poverty. The next 2-3 years may very well be extremely difficult with rise in crimes and make normal living very difficult further reinforcing the downward spiral.

[The Rationalist]

For those who believe lock down will help, nobody is preventing them from staying inside their homes. Please do stay inside your homes if your financial circumstances allow (PRIVILEGE IS NOT UNDERSTOOD, UNTIL YOU DON’T HAVE THAT ANYMORE). Please don’t give lectures that the average man is a stupid and all, everyone fears for their lives, it’s because they don’t have the luxury to remain holed up in their homes they are venturing out. Less than 1% of us will be able to survive without a job for one year, your property and gold will be of no help as nobody will be there to buy if need arises. And nobody is forcing us to allow house help into our homes, we are free to do our chores! Once you are allowing them, you are accepting the risks associated with that decision.

My father is in hospital since last 2 weeks in ICU. I could very well leave and be at his side, but I decided to stay back as a responsible doctor. My personal interests are not above that of the society’s. I may not be able to see him alive and will not be allowed to be near him if something unfortunate happens as I will be quarantined. No exemption for anyone to visit a hospital. Being an ex-smoker I’m at risk if I contract the virus, I’m afraid about leaving behind two small kids and a home maker wife. But if we all decide only about personal issues, the world would be a terrible place to live. Please don’t blame the ordinary men for whatever is happening now. The incompetent men running this country are only responsible for this mess. Just see who runs USA, Brazil, Russia, UK and you will know why all are in the same boat.

Take adequate precautions and hope we all survive this. Now onwards think more compassionately about the unprivileged and the ordinary men who risk their lives to help us lead a comfortable lives. Everybody would be happy to live inside a mansion or posh apartment and enjoy all the good things in life, it’s just that it’s not possible in the current order of life. Nobody willing becomes a manual labourer, I’m sure if they were given the right circumstances most of them would have been in our places or even better.

[mohansrides]

Originally Posted by proton

.... but that is not what we are asking for...

This is a lockdown, yes or no, thread. Also, both on this thread and in the real world, there are people asking for lockdowns.

Originally Posted by proton

....I understand that people are exposed to harm when they venture out and becoming infected through airborn or contact point virus transmission, or when household members venture out and are similarly affected. That's not rocket science.

The problem is that all pro-lockdown arguments are centered on the premise that the virus, and ONLY THE VIRUS, is plaguing people. That the lockdown is a malaise by itself that has taken many many lives and will take many many more is not being discussed at all.

Originally Posted by proton

.. Post lockdown, nothing has changed: The resources are still limited and already out of reach to the “Small portion”.

Actually, a lot has changed. At least in MH, the woes of not getting a bed are long gone. Of course, it is still not a cake walk. But, it is also not the struggle that it used to be. As I said in my earlier post, our case count is 8 in the society; all of whom found beds. If we argue that that is because we are willing to pay, I also want to point out that our security guy at the gate caught the virus. He got into Nair Hospital without any hassles, got done with the virus, and he has been back at his job since the last couple of days.

Originally Posted by Cyborg

..People dealing in percentages and numbers, “only” 3% or 4% is the death rate etc have not seen or had anyone close to them getting infected and dying. It’s very easy to talk that way when you are not involved and things are not personal.

Sir,

As someone said earlier, you entered the debate late. So, let us settle this once and for all. Yes, the death rate is under 3%. And yes, this is very very low to warrant the hugely expensive lockdown that has taken its own lives and continues to do so. These are facts. Not someone's imagination.

And as to your allusion that anti-lockdown people being relatively unaffected by the virus, you could not be more wrong. I am living in a housing society where I am surrounded by the virus. More importantly, I have three seniors under my care. So yes, I check all the boxes. But, despite all that, I have written to my kids' school asking for them to re-open. I am also actively campaigning in my society to let in house maids. I am doing all this because this is what I believe in.

As to your argument that pro-lockdown people may not know someone who died, let me point you in the direction of many front-line doctors who are advising the lockdown; both here in this thread and out in the real world. Surely, they have seen many many Covid deaths up close.

Also, you are right. I don't know anyone who has died. But, I can argue that those asking for a lockdown do not personally know anyone who has been affected by it. I know 9. From my team alone. Aside from that I know 3 or 4 more. All working age people who are unlikely to find a job in the next 8 months or even an year considering the state of the economy and logistics due to the lockdown. Each of those people have many mouths to feed.

My condolences to you regarding your friend. Unfortunately, Corona was not something that we inflicted on him. On the other hand, this autorickshaw driver who died in Bihar, this 12 year old who died walking to her home in Chattigarh, this 23 year old who died of exhaustion walking home to TN; not to mention nine of my personal friends who lost their jobs... all of these people paid the price so that you and I can feel safe. We definitely inflicted that on them. If not for the lockdown, that auto driver, that kid and that youth from TN would likely be alive today and be feeding their families; and my team mates would definitely be employed for the sake of their families.

I request you to read these links if you have the time -

• https://www.hindustantimes.com/india...tuXWiUEiI.html
  
  
• https://www.aei.org/op-eds/the-coron...-the-lockdown/
  
  
• https://thewire.in/rights/migrant-wo...ockdown-deaths
  
  
• https://economictimes.indiatimes.com...w/75519279.cms
  
  
• https://indianexpress.com/article/in...tates-6412475/

Let me repeat, I have absolutely no problem with people voluntarily locking themselves in. If people are afraid, they can choose to act on it in their lives. But, I absolutely have a problem with people demanding that everyone else around them should be locked down too. No one has that right.

Originally Posted by Cyborg

..Be reasonably afraid and stay safe.

This is a perfectly reasonable statement.

[mvadg]

Originally Posted by TwinAlco

Sir not making any personal attack but staying in Bangalore it is easy for enforcing wearing of mask.

Trust me at temperatures over 42 degrees and 90% humidity it is almost impossible to wear any kind of mask for any long duration

Thank you for enlightening me. Yes, I'm spoilt by the cool Bangalore weather, in fact, this time we did not even have a summer! Your post tells us why all inputs must be considered before we make a law or even a rule applicable to all. Thank god, I'm not in charge of mandating masks for everyone!
Unfortunately, the latest research seems to say that if everyone wears masks the transmission of the virus is reduced significantly.

[TwinAlco]

Originally Posted by mvadg

Thank you for enlightening me. Yes, I'm spoilt by the cool Bangalore weather, in fact, this time we did not even have a summer! Your post tells us why all inputs must be considered before we make a law or even a rule applicable to all. Thank god, I'm not in charge of mandating masks for everyone!
Unfortunately, the latest research seems to say that if everyone wears masks the transmission of the virus is reduced significantly.

Thanks sir for not taking it personally. I have studied in a beautiful campus in Bangalore and am now working in coastal Andhra Pradesh so am aware of the huge temperature gap and practical difficulties in rural areas v/s a city.

Most of these studies are conducted abroad which also do not suffer these extreme temperatures.

I personally feel that wearing a wet mask is doubly dangerous as it becomes a magnet for droplets and dust particles and renders the mask ineffective. I am happy if someone can clarify this.

[vivek95]

I have said this umpteen times before, repeating again. From a Doctor's standpoint, we have seen both since last 3.5 months - covid deaths and non covid deaths, the latter more so because of lack of timely medical attention. They would have otherwise stood high chances of survival in the pre-covid times. So we feel bad for anyone who dies. Hence this argument that, you have not had anyone close to you dying from covid, hence you can't realise the pain, totally fails not only in front of me, but before any frontline Doctor who is witnessing first hand the deaths on both sides.

[ABHI_1512]

Every time I think that this thread has nothing more to offer, I get surprised. With no offence to anyone but I have some points to make here :

1. First and foremost, this thread was always about the lockdown and less about the virus. We have been discussing the effects of the lockdown on us. The merits and demerits of the lockdown is what we were discussing here.

2. Like mentioned so many times, people who can and have the option of staying at home to be safe can always stay inside the houses even after the lockdown ends and beyond. Not many have the luxury though and that we know already what by looking at the sheer number of migrant workers who were taken for a ride and now ostracised even in their home places !!

3. The argument that people are ill- informed is actually true. That people still support the lockdown even after so many months have passed is a mystery to me and shows how ill-informed we actually are. By this time, it should have been clear that the lockdown was a disaster , but the fact that people argue to keep the lockdown just to keep themselves safe is an idea that goes beyond my usual prudence.

4. As has been mentioned previously in the thread, I have lost some close ones not due to covid but due to the stupidity around the lockdown when people with basic needs like dialysis were denied hospital facilities because of the stigma and fear mongering about the virus.

I do know the risks of the virus and still during the entire lockdown, I have been responsible enough to take precautions while being out of the hospitals or getting medical tests done for elderly relatives or when out for groceries without getting paranoid and not letting my sanity disturbed.

5. About the daily chores part, we never stopped our maid from coming for our daily chores but the sheer fear mongering during the initial phase scared the hell out of her. She voluntarily stopped coming for around a week but resumed on her own and she has been doing her work from the first week of April. It’s another matter that working from home for us worked wonders somewhat and she is doing fine with all the precautions.

6. Regarding the usage of mask, a mask is only beneficial when you are around somebody and the usual distance is maintained. If one is not coughing or sneezing, then a person without mask is just as same as a person with mask who has some symptoms of cough and cold.

In a country as humid as ours, it’s near impossible to wear a mask always. I wear a mask when I visit the hospitals or the high risk areas but I don’t wear a mask when I ride my bike or drive the car because that’s useless. Some policemen have even stopped and questioned me for this but then sometimes logic works with them as well or may be I have been lucky till now !

But yes, if the mask is the one which will slow the spread of the virus then I am all for one but sadly that i don’t see it that way. The way people fiddle with the mask, it’s of no use even if someone is wearing one !!

7. Due to the lockdown and the drama around it, people have been restless, some have developed tempers and what not, some have lost their jobs, some are now contemplating selling flats which are halfway through the tenure because of salary cuts, children and students don’t know what to do, the entire academic structure is in doldrums, several sectors have already collapsed or on the verge of collapse, the economy has gone for a toss and all in the name of controlling the virus which has now gone beyond control.

8. Staying safe is one’s personal choice and how one does it is also entirely personal. For me and for many of them in this thread, staying safe doesn’t mean forgoing our liberty of life. Yes, one has to be safe but not at the cost of the life. We still need to eat, sleep and breath at the end of the day no matter what. For many in the country, that’s the only motto leaving aside the safety part.

9. The lockdown put the fear of the virus so deep that ostracisation happened to doctors who actually were doing the real good work. Nurses and staffs working in the hospitals were shunned, all in the name of the virus and the lockdown.

10. Lastly, a personal note- Have seen people struggle for their lives from very close quarters during the lockdown for no fault of theirs, some have succumbed and some are still struggling and that is why, living inside the houses to stay safe is still an option for some but not everyone has that option.

Just my ten cents !!

[proton]

Originally Posted by mohansrides

This is a lockdown, yes or no, thread. Also, both on this thread and in the real world, there are people asking for lockdowns.

But you yourself state that there are different issues from the original debate when the member thought that the danger was being downplayed because people had not considered how seriously it would affect them personally:

But with all due respect, this debate is not just about people getting sick. It is about forcing others to give up their livelihoods because a small portion of people are getting sick and an even smaller portion are succumbing to the illness.

The problem is that all pro-lockdown arguments are centered on the premise that the virus, and ONLY THE VIRUS, is plaguing people. That the lockdown is a malaise by itself that has taken many many lives and will take many many more is not being discussed at all.

My comment was in reply to the claim that vigorous discussion by qualified and unqualified members would throw light on how the virus spreads. I repeat it’s not rocket science.

Actually, a lot has changed. At least in MH, the woes of not getting a bed are long gone. Of course, it is still not a cake walk. But, it is also not the struggle that it used to be. As I said in my earlier post, our case count is 8 in the society; all of whom found beds. If we argue that that is because we are willing to pay, I also want to point out that our security guy at the gate caught the virus. He got into Nair Hospital without any hassles, got done with the virus, and he has been back at his job since the last couple of days.

As you admit, your evidence is anecdotal. One instance. In other instances, not applicable.

[proton]

Originally Posted by ABHI_1512

Every time I think that this thread has nothing more to offer, I get surprised. With no offence to anyone but I have some points to make here :

6. Regarding the usage of mask, a mask is only beneficial when you are around somebody and the usual distance is maintained. If one is not coughing or sneezing, then a person without mask is just as same as a person with mask who has some symptoms of cough and cold.

Is it true that it doesn't need coughing or sneezing, but just breathing out to shed virus into the air space in a room? If so, wouldn't a mask help even if no coughing or sneezing occurs?

Also, I'd like to know if your views reflect concerns about the handicapping of the healthcare system by over reaction from public, or about the ineffectiveness of the over reaction.

In other words, is it worrying that the over reaction of the public has no benefits, because most cases will be mild and the serious cases have a high chance of recovery?

Or, is it worrying that the over reaction is causing existing care for other illnesses to suffer?

In other words, is it bad to react strongly to the possibility of serious consequences to the health of our family?

Is it able to influence people to put pressure on healthcare facilities to cave under and take counterproductive actions like depriving people needing dialysis from receiving care by diverting resources?

As you can see, each claim needs a bit more mindfulness. Certainly more than ten cents a pop. Or for the whole post.

[mvadg]

Originally Posted by proton

Is it true that it doesn't need coughing or sneezing, but just breathing out to shed virus into the air space in a room?...

As you can see, each claim needs a bit more mindfulness. Certainly more than ten cents a pop. Or for the whole post.

I don't have the links to the article about masks, but IIRC, you are right - a mask traps one's own virus particles and reduces the risk for others. That's why it is so important for everyone to wear masks. A mask does very little to filter out virus particles from the air we breathe in for various reasons - mostly due to the fact that about 30% of the air bypasses the filter material and gets in via the gaps. (most likely 30% must be a lower bound, given that most of the time the mask is not in its proper position)

And I like the way you highlight the deficiencies in our assertions! Yes, we should not be quick to decide based on anecdotes and public pressure.

These days there are few real experts whom we can rely on - and the biggest problem is that our policy makers don't like to consult real experts. I am sure there are many experts in academia who can advise on the best process for making good decisions based on scientific principles. There is also a tendency to make a decision and not think through the consequences of the decision, which I call lazy first order decision making.