[Nalin1]

Originally Posted by DigitalOne

I am afraid that with calls like below, and a fear crazed citizenry, the government will give in and take the easiest route to enforce a lockdown in Bengaluru again.

Link

Oh my God! Yet another invisible agreement signed with Covid-19 and this time for 20 days. Usually it is till the middle of the month or end of the month.

[vivek95]

Great going Bangalore !! Don't want to learn from mistakes done by Mumbai but rather imitate it and let the non-covid patients suffer or rather die.

[proton]

Originally Posted by mohansrides

What? What logical fallacy about poisoning what well? You seriously thought that I was commenting on the background and the qualifications of this Red Dragon guy?

I didn't think, I know. You said:

Whoever Red Dragon is, he hasn’t lived in a situation where his next meal has been robbed out of his hands by a choice that’s been forced on him without compensation or redressal mechanisms.

https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Poisoning_the_well

Poisoning the well (also called the smear tactic) is a rhetorical technique and logical fallacy that uses the association of negative emotions to distract a subject from actual evidence in an argument.

You inferred the person would not be able to sympathise with economic victims of the lockdown, because he had never been in a position of facing the frightening consequences of losing their livelihood. Non sequitur, does not follow. You never considered that he was qualified as an epidemiologist to know that the consequences of communal transmission was much more horrifying. What was experienced during the initial stage of the pandemic was a small taste of coming disaster. A 5 percent mortality rate may sound small, but when you think of the number on which that percentage is based, it's ginormous. Because the percentage is based on those who are infected, if the infected portion of population is great, it follows that the actual numbers will also be great. I repeat, the infected portion. Dealing in numbers is quite vague and a little hard to wrap our minds around, but just think of it this way. Reading the account of what happened in Italy and Spain, people were shocked at the number of the casualties. Our population is 25 to 30 times that of Italy or Spain, so we are looking at a 30 times the casualty FIGURES of either of those countries, or even higher, given the density of inhabitation. In what universe is that result acceptable, when we know that it is preventable? I repeat, keeping the infected portion number down is PREVENTABLE. Try to keep the different elements of the situation in play, all the time.

As for the economic fallout being even more serious with regard to deaths from losing livelihood, no one has talked about the elephant in the room: Why is the government refusing help from experts in the field of epidemic management? I will give two examples.

The conventional wisdom is to lock down and then test in the initial phase. The numbers of those infected was manageable and tracing and identifying would have led to the quarantining of that number, thereby preventing an unmanageable situation. Both experts, as well as the opposition party, gave this advice, and were summarily ignored.

Two. We are now past that first phase. The protocol now is to lock down, to prevent huge further casualties. Economic hardship must also be prevented, by direct transfer of funds and supplies to ALL the population. We can ask: Isn't this also going to cripple the economy in the long term, both in terms of wasting of resources and slowing down, nay switching off, the economy, with all the horrendous implications of that move?

Think about the future scene this way: the economy has been bled of resources needed to keep it spinning, because it has been diverted to relief efforts, and needs help. Assuming that help is available, and that humanitarian will has not disappeared, it's possible to envision a scenario where that help will be forthcoming. We are not Africa, with a nonexistent economic environment. All we need is resources to fire it up and get it up and running again.

What is the alternative? How is the government going to handle the casualties caused by lifting the lockdown? Is it going to treat it as an acceptable figure, and then concentrate on using its fabled huge cash reserves and well stocked warehouses to rescue the economy and by implication, the country? Is there going to be a selective apportioning of these resources to certain individuals, states, based on criteria known only to those controlling these resources?

Pretty big elephant, or elephants, if you ask me.

[mohansrides]

Originally Posted by proton

I didn't think, I know.....You inferred the person would not be able to sympathise with economic victims of the lockdown, because he had never been in a position of facing the frightening consequences of losing their livelihood. Non sequitur, does not follow. You never considered that he was.

The statement about Red Dragon was rhetorical. Not literal. Any reasonable person would have seen that. The argument was never about Red Dragon or his qualifications.

But while you choose to be literal about about your rebuttals on statements that are not central to the argument, you refuse to extend that same literal approach towards accepting that you erroneously called my statement about Mumbai as anecdotal. I proved myself with a legitimate article. And your rebut with a completely anecdotal video about another location and then chastise next for not seeing the big picture with regards to hospital facilities!!

Also, the government is not responsible for curing everyone of Covid. The government certainly didn’t release Covid into the population. Yes, they have a hand in ensuring a reasonably good public health system. But that can all only happen if we have funds in the coffers. And that can only happen if there is economic activity.

Yes, everyone understands percentages and about how they work. But we have a lot of evidence today that Covid does not infect every single person. I am not talking about asymptomatic patients. I am talking about people who never get infected in the first place. Even in completely open societies, we are seeing infection rates around 10% of the population. On top of this infection rate is the small mortality rate.

I repeat; those that are afraid need never emerge into the world for the next 3 decades, if that is what they want. But to force others to be fearful because you are is just plain wrong.

In an ideal world, we can and should do everything to fight an illness. But when the consequences of the countermeasure are as bad or worse than the disease, then it is time to stop.

[proton]

The statement about Red Dragon was rhetorical. Not literal. Any reasonable person would have seen that. The argument was never about Red Dragon or his qualifications.

It wasn't rhetorical. Questions are generally rhetorical. If a statement, it's usually without weight, equally unimportant whether said or unsaid. Why bother making your statement?

But while you choose to be literal about about your rebuttals on statements that are not central to the argument, you refuse to extend that same literal approach towards accepting that you erroneously called my statement about Mumbai as anecdotal. I proved myself with a legitimate article. And your rebut with a completely anecdotal video about another location and then chastise next for not seeing the big picture with regards to hospital facilities!!

A statement that swans only come in factory white is a falsifiable hypothesis. But it only needs the finding of a black example to knock that hypothesis down. I only need to find one outlier to knock down your claim that no member on this forum (for our purposes) need to fear for bed shortages.

Also, the government is not responsible for curing everyone of Covid. The government certainly didn’t release Covid into the population.

Yes, they have a hand in ensuring a reasonably good public health system. But that can all only happen if we have funds in the coffers. And that can only happen if there is economic activity.

The government IS responsible for curing my infection. That's what taxes are for. Future funds in the coffer ensure future response. Which funds will accrue if I survive. Horse. Cart. In that order.

Yes, everyone understands percentages and about how they work. But we have a lot of evidence today that Covid does not infect every single person. I am not talking about asymptomatic patients. I am talking about people who never get infected in the first place. Even in completely open societies, we are seeing infection rates around 10% of the population. On top of this infection rate is the small mortality rate.

I'd rather not see in India what we saw in Italy. Even proportionately. And definitely not worse, given our handicap.

I repeat; those that are afraid need never emerge into the world for the next 3 decades, if that is what they want. But to force others to be fearful because you are is just plain wrong.

This is not ambling along and having a piano drop on my head. Happenstance. This is foreseeable and avoidable. Enemy action.

In an ideal world, we can and should do everything to fight an illness. But when the consequences of the countermeasure are as bad or worse than the disease, then it is time to stop.

False dilemma

A false dilemma (or sometimes called false dichotomy) is a type of informal fallacy, more specifically one of the correlative-based fallacies, in which a statement falsely claims an "either/or" situation, when in fact there is at least one additional logically valid option.[1]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_dilemma

You claim the only options are lockdown and suffer from economic disaster, or unlock and suffer from a medical one. We could lockdown and ask for economic help.

[Eddy]

Note from Support: Please no personal attacks.

[mohansrides]

Originally Posted by proton

The government IS responsible for curing my infection. That's what taxes are for.

While you are at it, please also hold the government responsible for feeding your entire family, and for providing all of you with a roof over your head along with all needed transportation, and even recreation... all with tax-payer money.

Why work at all? There is enormous amounts of moneys available for everyone to get everything paid for from public coffers.

[samaspire]

Originally Posted by proton

The government IS responsible for curing my infection. That's what taxes are for.

If this were true then the govt. is equally responsible for every other patient out there. But we know what the ground reality is!

As for govt. funds - it's evident that they don't have any, and they don't even have good ideas to raise some. Other than raising fuel prices, that is. (had already decided to divest in LIC before Covid hit). The people of the country helped out by donating to the govt., but we don't know anything about how those funds are being used.

So, whatever the arguments here are, lockdown or no lockdown, the govt. has made its decision to open up. It has no choice, but to. People may get infected, people may die. 4 years is a long enough time for people to forget.

[proton]

Originally Posted by mohansrides

Why work at all? There is enormous amounts of moneys available for everyone to get everything paid for from public coffers.

I was involved in a coffee table discussion during the first lockdown. The first thought that occurred to me was that the poor would be the hardest hit, with losing their daily wage income. Not so, said the others, who live through playing stocks. Regular financial data through the previous years proudly announced how India has huge reserves of liquidity. Also bumper crops have led to overflowing godowns. They assured me that this would be distributed to the poor to ensure they did not flee back home, spreading the virus.

Nothing happened. They again reassured me it was the typical government inefficiencies in organising distribution channels, and would soon be solved. Still, nothing happened. The rest is history.

This is when doubts began about the the elephant, the uncomfortable issue that no one wants to talk about. Well first they did not protect the poor, the next they'll prolly badly affect the middle class, especially those living in states run by the opposition, by obstructing efforts to relieve the disasters, and fixing blame. Wait, it's already happening!

I'm not political, just trying to frame the issues, so that indignation overcomes discomfort and inertia, so that we can all request the government to forget politics and understand that we are all in this together.

[v1p3r]

Originally Posted by aadya

In fact we had an elderly patient who had cardiac arrest brought to the hospital within few minutes, resuscitated in no time and walked out of the hospital. I have been seeing helplessly such patient brought to ER after 30-40 minutes due to traffic and loose their life without medical care.

Please tell me which hospital in Bangalore you are associated with. I would like to make it my primary destination in case of an emergency.

[Sebring]

Cases in Bangalore have zoomed up. Just on my street there are five cases. Three floors of a tall residential building are sealed off after the entire complex was sanitized. The building resembles a 'bhoot bangla', with lights switched off. ('Covid Tourism' is bringing a lot of curious onlookers from nearby areas to the security gates, often heard asking - if this is 'the building?'. Few buildings in the area have entered the 'voluntary lock-down or mini-lock down' period. Certain large areas of Bangalore have shut, and there was an emergency cabinet meeting today to assess the situation. How quickly did we lose the plot!

[mohansrides]

Originally Posted by Sebring

Cases in Bangalore have zoomed up... How quickly did we lose the plot!

Sir,

No one lost the plot. If the plot was that we had contained the infection, then that was nothing but an illusion. There is no stopping the infection. Please let us all understand this.

The real important thing to remember is that infections mean nothing. There is a 95% (or more) chance that all those cases that you mention will walk away unscathed. Yes, there is a small chance that one of them may fall into the minority and succumb. But really this disease is no more dangerous than any other human endeavour or natural hazard.

We really need to stop psyching ourselves up over the infection numbers. We are doing ourselves and the society we live in a huge disservice by being this afraid.

The PM really blundered with that “...maut ko ghar bulaane ki barabar hai...” speech; and the media is hell bent on fueling the fear.

This morning, there was a story in ToI about the “new trend in Covid of sudden death for asymptomatic patients”. I opened the story fully expecting to see some statistics. Instead, the story was about one guy who died. Yes, one. The news agency took that one death and chose to call it a trend. Completely irresponsible journalism just to get eyeballs. All the website had was the opinion of some doctor who said yes, some patients could experience this outcome. That’s it. How that makes a trend is beyond me.

A trend is made of a series of events that display the same behaviour and outcome. Not one incident and an opinion of some docs that it could happen to others.

I am sure that a doctor could tell us that yes, someone could die of an accident. But does that make a trend?

[Thad E Ginathom]

Originally Posted by mohansrides

This morning, there was a story in ToI about the “new trend in Covid of sudden death for asymptomatic patients”. I opened the story fully expecting to see some statistics. Instead, the story was about one guy who died. Yes, one.

It is more than one. It refers to those who appear to be fine, but suffer increasing hypoxia, without feeling ill, until they suddenly die. I'm sure you must have read about this elsewhere, perhaps in a less sensational newspaper.

The article fails all round. Not just one. Not a trend. But... you are surprised?

[mohansrides]

Originally Posted by Thad E Ginathom

It is more than one. It refers to those who appear to be fine, but suffer increasing hypoxia, without feeling ill, until they suddenly die. I'm sure you must have read about this elsewhere, perhaps in a less sensational newspaper.

The article fails all round. Not just one. Not a trend. But... you are surprised?

I am sure that there are more than one. But the article didn’t cite more than one. But like you yourself say, even the existence of more than one sudden death still doesn’t make a trend. That didn’t stop ToI from calling it a trend and from driving the fear up.

Incidentally, there are numerous reports (definitely more than one or two) of people dying of flesh eating bacteria after they go for a swim or a hike in the outdoors. But that does not mean that one should not go hiking or swimming or fishing. People should be able to take informed decisions without cowering in fear and without forcing their choices on others.

[am1m]

Originally Posted by mohansrides

We are doing ourselves and the society we live in a huge disservice by being this afraid.

Absolutely right that the media and politicians have done their bit to fuel the fear rather than taking the measures required or rationally assessing the efficacy of those measures. But no one will question anything, even in any analysis years later. If all goes well, they will say it was "thanks to the the measures we implemented". If (heaven forbid) things escalate, they will say, "if we hadn't done xyz, x more people would have died, look what happened even in abc western country."

But I'm also wondering how many people are really afraid any more. All around me I see people going about their business. The TV shows images of the same politicians who threaten lock down if people don't follow measures walking around with their entourages, everyone with masks down. Permissions are being granted for gatherings with the excuse that social distancing will be implemented, even when that is obviously not possible in such a situation (will not go into details because that will get political and religious). I know people who have driven back across state lines without being stopped by anyone even though there are check posts at the border.

Is it just people like us, mostly online reading up everything and being afraid, tracking down every scrap of emerging research and extrapolating from that? "Virus can survive on x surface for y minutes/No it can't/Yes it can but bathing it in UV light of abc wavelength for z minutes will kill it/etc etc." (And of course the RWAs who are still ruling their tiny kingdoms are also afraid.)

This is just from my (limited) observations. What I see around me doesn't seem to match what the news and TV channels are constantly broadcasting.