[Turbanator]

Originally Posted by greenoval

It's not just the SMEs, even the government has clearly started feeling the pinch of lockdown with revenues drying up.

So why do you think they have opened things now? They can't print money like the USA. GST Collections for March should be 30-40 % lower than February (5th is the deadline, though many people will instead pay 9% interest.)

For April, it can be anywhere between 10-20% of the average monthly collections. Similarly for state governments, no income from Liquor/ RTO/ Registry/ VAT on petrol, etc. Most states will default if the consumption does not rise. Factory production is just one part.

This is the number of people who have registered to move from Punjab. 8,5 lac and counting, around 5 lac only from Ludhiana and although most of these guys were having food/ places to stay.
https://twitter.com/kbssidhu1961/sta...46818724798464

I am sure there will be similar or higher numbers from other Industrial states like Gujarat/ Maharashtra. Heck, no one stops a Train so fast the way we stopped our country.

Had someone thought about this scenario before closing this everything for so long, things could have been different.

[vb-saan]

Originally Posted by DCEite

Meanwhile in Singapore:

Hope the situation is better now in Singapore and our fellow Indians are safe.

https://www.newindianexpress.com/wor...n-2138366.html

These odd comments happen at times and the authorities take it very seriously. There maybe a few online responses but other than that there is no huge outrage/backlash as mentioned in the article

[racer_ash]

Pardon me. But the poll doesnt make sense to me. What lockdown are we talking about now? We all know lockdown rules differ by the demarcation of zones and the rules have been relaxed quite a bit even in the Red zones. So unless I live in the containment zone, I have been granted pretty much all the essential liberties.

Or maybe change the poll to 'Do you support the current lockdown where rules differ by zonal demarcation?'

[Tilak_7k_1979]

Good thread and we can keep seeing more debate on this topic in coming days. Another media favorite 9PM topic, if not already done.

I think there was a golden opportunity lost. What was needed a strict lockdown enforcement for first 3 weeks, then identify the zones and start economic activity in green zone. The first 3 weeks is the golden period, in my opinion. We had people moving around (though law enforcement did try to reel in the people) but I saw good movement of people in my city Hyderabad atleast and the affect is even after 6-7 weeks the entire district is in red zone.

Now since we are past 6+ weeks there are going to be chaos. We still have large districts in red zone, people getting restless, psychological issues, physiological issues, issues at home/office, economy taking a beating with long time affects etc.

No doubt we have to be careful. 5% fatality in our country is still a huge number and we cannot afford it (don't have that many hospital beds in first placey). We need a clear action plan now:

- Open green zones
- Rope in private hospitals in every zone
- Enforce strict containment zones and identify by areas not by districts
- I still don't see a good plan for migrant workers, poor people. States are doing very little in identifying people with no proper shelter etc

We do not want hunger and other diseases to be culprit now for fatalities

[The Rationalist]

Originally Posted by Turbanator

This is the number of people who have registered to move from Punjab. 8,5 lac and counting, around 5 lac only from Ludhiana and although most of these guys were having food/ places to stay.
I am sure there will be similar or higher numbers from other Industrial states like Gujarat/ Maharashtra.

If this happens, I don’t know what will happen to Covid-19 curve, economy will definitely be flattened. Those who return from the different states actually run the state industries and manual labourer based services. Kerala has 25 lakh migrants, if they leave Kerala will come to a standstill. Hope they all don’t leave, if they do, then a terrible recession is in the offering. Given the fear mongering by media, they will definitely think it’s better to die in one’s own place than in a far away land, can’t blame them. Hope they return eventually and a job still remains.

[SmartCat]

I have again voted for "can't say" option. I'm surprised why there are such opinionated responses on this thread, when nobody has real data or estimates to make a comparison between the two strategies. Essentially, both the "parties" (pro-lockdown and anti-lockdown) are just speculating.

The only solid economic data we have because of India lockdown is short term loss of income for daily wagers, loss of revenues for businesses and low GDP numbers. From what I understand, we will see phases for lockdown, relaxed lockdown and back to full lockdown again if needed. The strategy, I think, is aimed at prevent piling up of bodies, at the altar of the economy.

But there is no data or economic models to predict what will happen to the Indian economy if there is no lockdown. Eg: what will happen on the economic front if bodies pile up?. If you say "no economic consequences" or "very little economic consequences", that's just pure speculation. Also, even if bodies do NOT pile up as expected (speculation again), there will be suffering because other countries are in a lockdown. We will have very low manufacturing export numbers, freeze on IT spending by large foreign corporations and no income due to travel & tourism anyway.

That is, we have data on effect of lockdown. We don't have data on effect of "no-lockdown". That's why it is tough to take a call on the right strategy. The lockdown vs no-lockdown debate is like arguing which is the least painful way to die -> taking the poison pill or jumping off the cliff.

The most logical answer to me is: Don't know/Can't say/Not sure.

[indian21r]

Originally Posted by Turbanator

This is the number of people who have registered to move from Punjab. 8,5 lac and counting, around 5 lac only from Ludhiana and although most of these guys were having food/ places to stay.
https://twitter.com/kbssidhu1961/sta...46818724798464

Originally Posted by The Rationalist

Kerala has 25 lakh migrants, if they leave Kerala will come to a standstill.

This is the worrisome part. Giving oneway ticket with no clear visibility or guidelines on their return is creating the uncertainty that this lockdown is here to stay for long in various forms. Severe curfews to a relaxed lockdown.

India is more like a continent now with each state behaving like a country. Just that instead of airlifting, we are sending them in trains.

Originally Posted by SmartCat

The most logical answer to me is: Don't know/Can't say/Not sure.

But the problem is one cannot sit on the sidelines for this.

Guess it is time we face this Virus head on rather than avoid it. I feel the longer we wait, the weaker we will be to face the inevitable.

[Chetan_Rao]

Originally Posted by SmartCat

I have again voted for "can't say" option. I'm surprised why there are such opinionated responses on this thread, when nobody has real data or estimates to make a comparison between the two strategies. Essentially, both the "parties" (pro-lockdown and anti-lockdown) are just speculating....

+1.

Isn't that the biggest fly in this soup?

40+ days into a lockdown, there's still no communicated coherent strategy and/or expected outcomes of the whole exercise.

Keywords 'communicated' and 'coherent', because I'm not presuming the presence or absence of actual strategy.

That is, we have data on effect of lockdown. We don't have data on effect of "no-lockdown".

Collecting data on 8 weeks of 'no lockdown' is a risky proposition in and of itself, doing it after an 8-week lockdown has potential to skew it even further.

[Turbanator]

Originally Posted by The Rationalist

If this happens, I don’t know what will happen to Covid-19 curve, economy will definitely be flattened.

Originally Posted by indian21r

Guess it is time we face this Virus head on rather than avoid it. I feel the longer we wait, the weaker we will be to face the inevitable.

How to make a line shorter without rubbing or cutting it, we all know about this popular Birbal story. It's true on the suffering/ pains as well.

We were worried about Covid, but now many are worried about reaching home or getting salaries or bringing back business into shape. So a majority have just forgotten about the virus.

Few guys who are still taking the virus seriously, are thinking how will they save themselves from the virus when the things are opening up.. so everyone has an extra worry, maybe that was the plan, to keep everyone busy

Originally Posted by SmartCat

when nobody has real data or estimates to make a comparison between the two strategies. Essentially, both the "parties" (pro-lockdown and anti-lockdown) are just speculating.
The most logical answer to me is: Don't know/Can't say/Not sure.

This is not logical but just a safe answer. You have listed shortcomings of complete lockdown, add the Government employees including Police/ Doctors/ Pensioners even the ministers.

what will happen on the economic front if bodies pile up?

By now decision makers will have enough reasons to believe the current% of people getting effected vs mortality is very low and manageable. Remember, there can be many more unaccounted infections, but they account Death counts well.

So, they have taken a calculated risk of opening things gradually. We will see the spikes, even doubling rate will increase, but as long as fatalities do not rise exponentially, I don't see the restrictions coming back.

[The Rationalist]

Originally Posted by SmartCat

The only solid economic data we have because of India lockdown is short term loss of income for daily wagers.
That is, we have data on effect of lockdown.

How are you sure it is short term? If the lockdown was continued, how many jobs will be lost? Is there any data regarding that? And once the lockdown is finished will all the jobs be back? Will the daily wagers be compensated, or they are just numbers on population statistics.

We have data on Covid-19 deaths. Where is the data of the number of deaths due to other illnesses, how many people died due to being denied treatment? Covid-19 is not the only disease in India that kill people.

We have data about deaths due to Alcohol, Tobacco, Road traffic accidents and what has been done, if we are so worried about bodies being piled. We have 6000 bodies that pile up due to that every day. I haven’t seen much problems with that, so if bodies pile up due to Covid, we will deal with that also. You can’t perpetually live in fear that people will die. Let’s open up the country and get the data for ‘No lockdown’, if you continue lockdown there is nothing to compare other than speculation that millions will die.

[ritz3645]

I have a question for moderators :
The poll above is confusing as Rules of lockdown have undergone changes to the present lockdown 03. Please specify this second poll validity, as we are in Lockdown 03 and polling for or about Lockdown 02.

• May 4th to May 17th - Lockdown 03
• April 15th to May 3rd - Lockdown 02
• March 23rd to April 14th - Lockdown 01
• March 22nd - Janata curfew start of lockdown

.

[ninjatalli]

Originally Posted by ritz3645

I have a question for moderators :
The poll above is confusing

^^Valid point. Suggestion - the poll question can be understood(/edited if possible) as 2nd extension or lockdown 3.0

Originally Posted by SmartCat

I'm surprised why there are such opinionated responses on this thread, when nobody has real data or estimates to make a comparison between the two strategies. Essentially, both the "parties" (pro-lockdown and anti-lockdown) are just speculating.

Originally Posted by Chetan_Rao

+1.

+100

Lol, this whole thread is a bag of multi-level speculating arguments and counter-arguments with bhpians on either side fighting it out, post by post; as if the high command at Delhi (and across the states) is going to make their next move basis the "winning" argument out here Initially, it used to be a useful thread to get the latest updates on the lockdown; now such posts are far and few; hidden amongst the arguments!


P.s. No offense to any of the arguing folks. Just observations of a(nother) bhpian who could also be considered guilty of the same point

P.s.s. Genuine question - any visibility/views if an individual could go running (with masks) between 7 am (or earlier) and 7 pm; in the vicinity of the area he lives in (@Mumbai - non-containment area) under the lockdown 3.0 rules?

[msdivy]

Originally Posted by indian21r

Giving oneway ticket with no clear visibility or guidelines on their return is creating the uncertainty that this lockdown is here to stay for long in various forms.

Why send the workers now? Aren't they required when factories open, construction starts? Who will do their work?

Originally Posted by Fillmore

How did rat poison enter that list ?

I was checking manufacturing dates of all items. I mean there is general demand for goods and if there is shortage of those goods, won't people depending on it suffer? (for shooing away rats in this case?)

Originally Posted by racer_ash

Why so much concern for the daily wagers now only during the lockdown? Are you saying that during non lockdown days, these guys were having a great quality of life? No one even cared for these guys who silently built our houses and laid roads.

During non-lockdown days, they were earning a wage, which they used for their living in cities and sent money back home to sustain their families. When lockdown was imposed, their means of earning was taken away. They barely were managing to sustain themselves and no money to take of the families back home.

In fact, the migrant worker population is totally in the blind spot of the Government. Govts are still unable to figure out what to do with them. Unfortunately, their numbers run in crores and the problem cannot be brushed away.

Originally Posted by msdivy

That brings me to my 3rd question:

I think I have answers to my questions.

1) When the lockdown is to be lifted? Is it based on date, or total active cases number or based on growth rate behavior?
Create Red, Orange, Green, containment zones and enforce restrictions accordingly. The region can move from one zone to another based on cases.

BTW, the Government must have done this on April 14th after 1st phase of lockdown. Lockdown 2.0 was unnecessary.

2) When the lockdown is lifted, won't the corona cases take off? How that number will be contained?
By enforcing restrictions on travel, social gathering & social distancing. Hoping the numbers are within the scope of the healthcare capacity.

3) If the lockdown is extended, how to handle the shortages of non-essential but necessary items?
Industries, factories are open though with higher hygiene norms. Companies can function with a reduction in staff. Hoping this will prevent shortages.

[RMN]

A lot being discussed and I don't have much to add on to it except to report that in almost, I guess 2 months, I've finally started to go out! Went out couple of days to buy some electronics for my new home, been traveling to & fro between my homes which is 6km apart & got my car washed at a car wash! - All while taking necessary precautions.

Cochin seems to be back alive now, hope everyone takes it easy and stay safe.

[kiku007]

Originally Posted by kiku007

People will support the lockdown in its current form as long as they,
1. Have money (salary, revenue, savings, credit cards, ability to borrow, state support etc.).
2. Use that money to get their life sustenance that includes food and shelter.

Point#1 would have already vanished for a good portion of India's population. Just watch how opinions change when Point#1 diminishes for the remaining portion of the people.

And the revised poll results provide us with an interesting insight, doesn't it?