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View Poll Results: Do you support the lockdown extension?
Yes 216 45.19%
No 197 41.21%
I'm unsure 65 13.60%
Voters: 478. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 5th April 2020, 21:00   #481
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till May 31, 2020

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Originally Posted by civic-sense View Post
Well, if we don't arrest the spread, lifting the lockdown will restart the spread. So a 3 week lockdown can only delay the virus boom, not slow it. Since we are at the begining of the epidemic, a properly imposed lockdown could arrest the virus - the only impediment being the unwillingness of people to co-operate.

My opinion is that we can only slow down the spread. We cannot arrest it. Full Normal will happen only after 60-70% of us have been infected. Without a lockdown that can be achieved sooner but with a lot more damage because of the overwhelming of the system. So lockdown is better.

Last edited by carboy : 5th April 2020 at 21:23.
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Old 5th April 2020, 21:46   #482
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till May 31, 2020

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Originally Posted by bluevolt View Post

Section 144 has been extended in Noida till April 30th. Is section 144 synonymous with Lockdown?
Order has been now amended and section 144 which was earlier imposed till 5th April is now extended till 14th April only (not 30th).
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Old 6th April 2020, 02:14   #483
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till May 31, 2020

I don't think the lockdown can be removed after the 14th, look at the rise in cases everyday, only somedays back it was 100, then 200 and now today it has been 500 + in a single day with 120 plus dead all over the country in total

If lockdown is removed in a populated country like India, we are going the US way in no time and that will be equal to a genocide.

US had 30 thousand plus cases in a single day yesterday in a population which is 33 crores vs India's 131 crore and size which is approximately 3 times larger than India.
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Old 6th April 2020, 07:33   #484
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till May 31, 2020

The things that the lockdown will achieve are
1. Slowing down virus spread to prepare the country to face the rapid rise.
2. Get people used to a lifestyle of minimal interaction, some of which they can sustain till the virus is no longer a problem.
3. Hope fervently for a drug cure.
4. Get businesses and others used to a work schedule of minimal interaction and still be sustainable.
People, including experts, still say (not convincingly though) that community spread is not there and the virus will be less potent in India and we have more innate immunity. I wouldn't bank on those views though.
I'm still very interested in seeing what we will do after 21 days and how they lockdown can be released in a phased and controlled manner.
Are we going to say no gatherings of more than 10 people (or alike)? All public spaces to have social distancing? Lockdown interstate borders?
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Old 6th April 2020, 16:00   #485
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till May 31, 2020

There is one more benefit of lockdown which doesn't seem to get the credit it deserves: an isolated person cannot catch the virus. This is what keeps me content in the house. It is hugely safer than being outside!

Is this selfish? Yes! The best kind of selfish: look after number one, keep your self safe and healthy. And no, because one less virus sufferer is one less virus spreader, which may translate into anything from a few, to hundreds less suffers.

Be selfish: it's the most unselfish thing to be. A win for one is a win for all.

Now, that all sounds good, and I believe it, and I am doing it. In reality, we cannot be 100% isolated unless we are in some deep quarantine system. But we can achieve a high percentage, and substantially reduced risk.
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Old 6th April 2020, 16:49   #486
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till May 31, 2020

Neighbour (very old man) developed bad ear pain today. Couldn't find any doctor who is available. What are people with non-Corona medical issues supposed to do during this period? Is there any plan for that?
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Old 6th April 2020, 17:20   #487
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till May 31, 2020

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Originally Posted by carboy View Post
Neighbour (very old man) developed bad ear pain today. Couldn't find any doctor who is available. What are people with non-Corona medical issues supposed to do during this period? Is there any plan for that?

You can look up an ENT specialist on Practo etc. Many doctors nowadays are okay with a video-call consultation. Works well for normal everyday issues.
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Old 6th April 2020, 18:10   #488
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till May 31, 2020

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Originally Posted by Thad E Ginathom View Post

Overall, you make some very good points, so forgive me for nitpicking a couple of points.

Ventilators are not something that can be easily delivered to home....
I was merely suggesting that we explore ways to deconstruct the problem down to more atomic parts that can then be scaled wide. Yes, some aspects may not lend themselves to further simplification. But, it behooves us to try. Certainly, I have heard incredible stories of doctors working in war zones who innovate out of sheer necessity. Well, the time has now come for us to think out-of-the-box about healthcare, and to explore options that go beyond current care giving models in the field.

I know that Team-BHP is full of well-travelled netizens. So, most of you know that in the West, one would have to go to Urgent Care clinics or even the ER when one experiences garden variety systems. By contrast, in India one could simply go to one's local chemist and ask for medication to treat symptomatic illnessess. Imagine if every sick person in India went to the ER or to an UC center!! That would be pandemonium. So, we have already demonstrated that we can take western medicine and scale it to some measure by having the pharmacist, in the short term, serve as a proxy for a full doctor. Now, we need to see how else we can break down the care model and then distribute parts of it to new actors who we will identify in our existing system.


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Originally Posted by humyum View Post
I don't think the lockdown can be removed after the 14th, look at the rise in cases everyday, only somedays back it was 100, then 200 and now today it has been 500 + in a single day with 120 plus dead all over the country in total

If lockdown is removed in a populated country like India, we are going the US way in no time and that will be equal to a genocide....
Kindly requesting everyone here to exercise restraint in your choice of certain words. "Genocide" is an extremely heavy term, and one which is completely inappropriate to describe any aspect of what is going on around us. Genocide means intentional infliction of pain or death on a people, and that too on a mass scale.

In today's context, neither the deaths resulting from the virus, nor those stemming from the measures to combat virus, will qualify as anything close to genocide; because both sets of unfortunate outcomes were / are not intentionally inflicted by any human being on society. In fact, any fatalities that are stemming due to the economic shutdown are outcomes that are exactly the opposite of the intended result from the lockdown, which is to save as many people as possible.

By extension, if and when the lockdown is lifted, it will be because such a measure is no longer economically viable. So, at that time, any fatalities that come about after the lockdown has potentially been lifted, should NOT be attributed to purposeful or intentional negligence by the government. In fact, if anything, the steps taken thus far clearly indicate that the government is willing to go the distance to ensure public health and safety. So, let us ease up on the pressure on our administrators.

Now, coming to the topic of the lockdown itself, I will agree that now that the lockdown is in place, it may be better to go the whole hog and extend it by a couple of weeks to give the healthcare teams enough time to fully encircle this virus. Be that as it may, it is wrong for us to equate an extension decision with rising test case positives.

Because a rise in cases of Covid positive people is sheer inevitability. Not just here, everywhere else in the globe too. Talking about India, there are more positives bubbling up to the surface now because the administration is finally getting the opportunity to cast a wider net in testing - private labs and hospitals are being roped in and we also have more test kits available now I think. So, as the net keeps widening, we are going to see more and more people test positive. But, a rise in infections does NOT mean that everyone in the country is going to experience unimaginable suffering and death on a mass scale. That is certainly NOT case.

Let us get the facts straight:

Infection Rate -
Plenty of people who have been in very close proximity of infected patients have NOT tested positive. In fact, that's the majority even if we build in a big margin of error due to false negatives. To give some examples -
  • The entire family of the man who died in Dharavi have NOT tested positive despite living with him in a tight space.

  • Many people who came in contact with Kanika Kapoor have NOT tested positive.

  • Boris Johnson's entire cabinet, who we can virtually guarantee have all been tested, have come out unscathed even though they must have been in closed spaces with their PM breathing in re-circulated air from centrally air conditioned offices.
So, while it is true that this virus is more easily transmitted than other pathogens, it is not true that everyone who comes in contact with an infected patient will get infected. That sort of thinking is more dangerous than the virus itself.

Fatality Rate -
On an average, this virus has a fatality rate of 3% to 4%. Even if we conservatively round that up to 5%, that would be 5% of the people that the virus actually infects, and NOT 5% of the whole population. So, assuming that one does get infected in the first place, there is a 95% chance that that person is going to sail through their illness without major incident. Yes, that is a NINE FIVE, NINETY FIVE PERCENT rate for good outcomes.

And yet, the media has been reporting, in big bold letters, nothing but the number of infections and deaths. Reports of people who test negative are almost absent from the public record. Also, there are lots of stories by ex-Covid patients talking about how the illness was tough to endure. But, none from the majority of the people who had an easier time of it. Any reports by people, such as this one, about the excellent care they received, is only intended to encourage people to submit to scrutiny and care by the authorities; not to allay any fears of the illness itself. I am afraid that all this is perpetuating virtual paranoia in people. Let me underscore this with an incident that happened here in our housing society.
Our maid requested financial help urgently. With schools being closed and her husband being away in what would be an essential job, she could not leave the house to withdraw money from an ATM. So, she asked for cash instead of a bank transfer. No problem. We instructed her to come to the gate of the society to collect the money. She was to come alone, and I was to go alone and hand her the money through the gate, while ensuring sufficient distance. Neither my maid nor anyone in either of our houses is symptomatic as of now. But, despite these factors and despite taking every precaution, when word got around that I was going to pay our maid, it caused a big uproar in our society WhatsApp group. I had all and sundry warning me and lecturing me. This from many people who have not even had the decency to pay the societal maintenance dues for months, and in a couple of cases by a few years. Here are people of means who are brazenly free-loading off the rest of us. And these very people were lecturing me on social responsibility for merely trying to help our employee out in her time of need; and that too for trying to do so while taking every precaution advised by the authorities despite neither of us being termed to be at risk.
Going by this incident and other stories of doctors and policemen being attacked and airline crew being ostracized, I fear that we have lost all courage as a society.

It is OK, and even correct, for us to take all reasonable precautions at the present time. What is NOT OK is for us to cower in fear against this pathogen while we routinely ask our young men and women to risk their lives for our safety - be it doctors, policemen during this pandemic, or the defense personnel guarding our borders at any point in time.

So, we need to stop thinking that a lockdown needs to be in place until this virus is completely eradicated. Because that simply is NOT going to happen. Fact is that while we are focussed on Covid 19, there are a zillion other problems, not to mention other pathogens, sharpening their knives against humanity.

Cheers

Last edited by khan_sultan : 7th April 2020 at 10:05. Reason: typo
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Old 6th April 2020, 18:26   #489
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till May 31, 2020

^^

Agree 100%

Here’s some professional guys talking about the same thing


Last edited by Turbanator : 6th April 2020 at 18:40.
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Old 6th April 2020, 21:50   #490
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till May 31, 2020

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Originally Posted by Turbanator View Post
^^

Agree 100%

Here’s some professional guys talking about the same thing...
CAUTION: Controversial views

Thank you Turbanator. It was worth it for me to watch the entire 32 minutes. My thoughts exactly which I have been trying to voice in a bumbling and far less articulate manner and created several detractors here on T-BHP. We do not know the denominator - no one does. Therefore we do not know the fatality percentage. We do know it is highly contagious. We do know that a very very high proportion of those infected and below 50 recover on their own or with basic medical treatment and get back to life. The global response of Govts partly driven by lack of data and partly by the force of media and whirl wind of social media have gone in for a solution that assumes 20 to 50 million will die when the true ratio might be one-fiftieth or one-hundredth that number globally. We don't know. But by shutting down the country we are probably going to have far more dying of hunger and succumbing to other illnesses due to malnutrition in India alone.

For most of us who are not from the medical fraternity the Covid count looks ominous, which to an extent it is. But, being from other professions, we usually don't have reference points. In India alone at any point in time we have 22 lakh patients suffering from TB. TB alone kills 2.2 lakh a year in India ie 10% or 600 a day.* Think how much we'd freak ourselves if we had a daily TB deaths Worldometer! - 1500 to 2000 cases added each day. Unfortunately experts who talk of 500 million Indians getting infected and 50 million dying so poison any discourse on the subject that now it is assumed by politicians that nothing short of a shutdown will stop it. A very high likelihood is this lockdown will not stop the spread and cause immense other damage to the poorest & most vulnerable by destroying their livelihoods. I do not know the answers or the solutions just that there is this assumption that total shut downs are the solution. The Govt probably did what it did because they had no other weapon in the armoury. It is a heresy today in social circles to speak candidly like this. My apologies if I have offended any BHPian. Probably I am laying bare my ignorance more than anything else. The panic and paranoia over Covid-19 I fear has become bigger than the disease itself. This post is not meant to disrespect in anyway the brave men and women combating this disease on the medical frontline and in other ways.

*I've just picked TB because it is infectious and respiratory. 5 other diseases could be picked in its place.

Last edited by Chetan_Rao : 6th April 2020 at 22:51. Reason: Removed video URL within quotes.
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Old 6th April 2020, 22:27   #491
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till May 31, 2020

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Originally Posted by mn2363 View Post
You can look up an ENT specialist on Practo etc. Many doctors nowadays are okay with a video-call consultation. Works well for normal everyday issues.
Is video call the only way today to get attention from a doctor for a non-corona patient today?


Quote:
Originally Posted by mohansrides View Post
On an average, this virus has a fatality rate of 3% to 4%.

That's a high number & I don't think that's true. I think it's probably less than 1%.

Many people who have been affected probably have no or mild symptoms & probably never know they have been infected & are probably not tested. There was an Oxford report that 50% of UK has probably already been infected.

Last edited by carboy : 6th April 2020 at 22:30.
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Old 7th April 2020, 09:01   #492
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till May 31, 2020

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Originally Posted by V.Narayan View Post
CAUTION: Controversial views

Thank you Turbanator. It was worth it for me to watch the entire 32 minutes.
This video is already outdated and full of contradiction, he was expecting some one lakh death worldwide, we are already there and will be much higher, the denominator he is talking about doesnt matter anymore because this disease can affect 60% population(unlike flue) if not controlled so even if death rate is similar to flue it will still kill way more people. Battachrya wants proof for that denominator till then he wants to study the virus by that time lakhs of people will be dead. And he is criticizing world leaders for taking strict actions huh, Borris jhonson underestimated covid like battacharya now he himself in critical condition. Anyway thanks for the video, i was always puzzled by lazy approch of european and american govts to this pandemic, now i know its people like battacharya who are in their expert panel made them underestimate the virus.
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Old 7th April 2020, 09:04   #493
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till May 31, 2020

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Borris jhonson underestimated covid like battacharya now he himself in critical condition.
That's one single person's data point & hence irrelevant.

I don't think we will know which is a better strategy - Sweden's strategy or most of the rest of the world - till a year goes by.
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Old 7th April 2020, 09:18   #494
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till May 31, 2020

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That's one single person's data point & hence irrelevant.

I don't think we will know which is a better strategy - Sweden's strategy or most of the rest of the world - till a year goes by.
Borris jhonson underestimated the virus now he and his country is suffering, now its relevant, isn't?
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Old 7th April 2020, 09:21   #495
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till May 31, 2020

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Originally Posted by splitsecond View Post
Borris jhonson underestimated the virus now he and his country is suffering, now its relevant, isn't?
As I said, we won't be able to figure out which is a better strategy till atleast a year passes. May be one strategy has more short term pain but is better in the long term & the other strategy has lesser short term pain but is worse in the long term. We can't say as of now.
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