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View Poll Results: Do you support the lockdown extension?
Yes 216 45.19%
No 197 41.21%
I'm unsure 65 13.60%
Voters: 478. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 7th April 2020, 09:37   #496
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till May 31, 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by V.Narayan View Post
CAUTION: Controversial views
I think a number of us (a small number) on this forum have been questioning the need for a complete lockdown in a country with a large population of poor. I think what the expert brought up very eloquently was
  • This not money vs lives, it is lives vs lives
  • Opinions have been based on what is basically "no data" - we do not know the number of people actually infected
Already experts have stated that there are 2 strains of the Covid-19 (article)
  • Quote:
    the original S-type which originated in Wuhan, and the subsequent L-type that evolved from the S-type and is more prevalent in countries like the US
  • Quote:
    The L-type is the more “aggressive” one, and spreads rapidly but is no more or less virulent than the S-type. The researchers urged everyone to take preventive measures because the mutation indicates that more could be coming.
[My opinion] There may be more strains and we don't know if natural mutations or bio-engineering produced them. All the experts seem to have selective amnesia when trotting out their favorite viewpoints. It makes it harder for policy makers and politicians to decide when they are not presented with complete data. There is a lot of research on other viruses like the Ebola, polio, common flu etc, that could be used to warn the public, but have been ignored. They have been presenting them in bits and pieces to the public.
  • Recommendation on masks completely disregarded all prior flu research
  • Aerosol transmission clearly established in the case of flu
  • Toilets are high risk areas for virus transmission
  • Fecal oral route - never mentioned initially - this is common with the polio virus
  • Different strains with differing effects - some mild, some lethal
It is possible that the US thought they would not be getting the "bio weapon" strain of the CoV2. Or maybe it was just plain complacence. It is interesting to see politicians all over the world hog the limelight and set aside experts to further their own agenda. Even experts seem to be those who have bluffed their way to the top rather than the genuine ones. The world will soon realize that we cannot get real solutions from people who do it with smoke and mirrors, whether as politicians, business leaders, technical leaders, or for that matter any task, except perhaps in show business.
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Old 7th April 2020, 10:02   #497
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till May 31, 2020

What happens when the lockdown ends? How will GOI handle similar situations in future?

Containment plan released yesterday by GOI for when lockdown ends:




Link to containment plan document in MOHFW site
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Old 7th April 2020, 10:06   #498
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till May 31, 2020

This lockdown has done exactly what was expected. Lakhs on the streets without food and shelter, thousands of small businesses closed down and struggling to make ends meet etc.

Has it done what its actual purpose was? Arresting the virus spread? Nobody knows.

The virus is continuing on its merry way and we probably would have been exactly in this position even without a lockdown. And now we need to resolve the zillion other problems !.
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Old 7th April 2020, 11:27   #499
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till May 31, 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nalin1 View Post
Has it done what its actual purpose was? Arresting the virus spread? Nobody knows.
Most of the graphs shown are cumulative and in some, y-axis zoomed up to show exponential growth. I was able to find daily cases here. Here it is:
Name:  dailynew.PNG
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You can see linear growth. This is the result of social distancing enforced by lock-down. In the 1st & 2nd week of lockdown, the cases seen were those infected before lockdown, since the coronavirus has typical incubation period of 2 to 14 days. If the social distancing is strictly followed, I would expect linear growth or even drop in the 3rd week of the lockdown.
Quote:
Lakhs on the streets without food and shelter, thousands of small businesses closed down and struggling to make ends meet etc.
On average, the State Govts took 4 days to comprehend the situation & 3 more days to get the state machinery moving after the lockdown ball was dropped on them. Funds were released to deputy commissioner/district collector/district magistrate and were given authority to handle the situation in their districts. Earlier vegetable vendors were beaten. Then the administration realized the importance of food delivery and ensured there is a smooth flow of food materials.

True, many couldn't manage these initial days.

Cental Govt announced lockdown on Tuesday evening to the country. Instead, if they had informed the state govt & district administration on Tuesday early morning and announced lockdown later in the evening to the country, the administration would have been ready to handle the situation on Day 2, instead of Day 7.
This is an extraordinary situation and required forethinking to up to that level.
Quote:
The virus is continuing on its merry way and we probably would have been exactly in this position even without a lockdown. And now we need to resolve the zillion other problems !.
We cannot see the effect of not enforcing lockdown (forced social distancing) since it has not happened. But we can speculate that in the worst situation, the cases would have grown exponentially like USA.
Name:  uscases.PNG
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The situation in our country with this kind of exponential growth would have been bad since we lack the required health care facilities to tackle the epidemic. Many in the US are getting treated for corona in their homes and visit hospitals for emergencies. We do not have that luxury.

Hopefully, the lockdown would have given Govt to ramp up the hospital beds. Many railway coaches & hotels have been converted to beds. These will double as isolation wards and hospitals can deal with emergencies. After lockdown is lifted, there will be new infections, even exponential. Our overall goal must be to minimize deaths.

Last edited by msdivy : 7th April 2020 at 11:44.
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Old 7th April 2020, 11:48   #500
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till May 31, 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by V.Narayan View Post
For most of us who are not from the medical fraternity the Covid count looks ominous, which to an extent it is. But, being from other professions, we usually don't have reference points. In India alone at any point in time we have 22 lakh patients suffering from TB. TB alone kills 2.2 lakh a year in India ie 10% or 600 a day.* Think how much we'd freak ourselves if we had a daily TB deaths Worldometer! - 1500 to 2000 cases added each day. Unfortunately experts who talk of 500 million Indians getting infected and 50 million dying so poison any discourse on the subject that now it is assumed by politicians that nothing short of a shutdown will stop it.
Take any world leader who underestimated this virus, and we would see that each of them were made to eat humble pie.

This virus isn't anything like TB, if you had been following it during the last few months. TB does not kill you in weeks, there is antibiotic treatment available, and you would most likely survive if you follow through the treatment regime. 600 deaths per day is not a big number if you look at the denominator of 140 crores. Covid is killing 600 per day in a country of just 6 crore people even with a lockdown. Extrapolate that to India - in the event of an Italy-like situation, the virus would be killing 14000 per day. You would run out of wood to burn the bodies.

There are real reasons why the whole world is in panic. The men in suits who professes to us on TV about this being just another flu, is not worried about you, but only their businesses. They know they would be safe in their palatial mansions even if there is no lockdown.

Last edited by civic-sense : 7th April 2020 at 11:50.
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Old 7th April 2020, 11:56   #501
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till May 31, 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by civic-sense View Post
Take any world leader who underestimated this virus, and we would see that each of them were made to eat humble pie.
It would take atleast a year to figure out which is the better strategy. May be one strategy has more short term pain but is better in the long term & the other strategy has lesser short term pain but is worse in the long term. We can't say as of now.
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Old 7th April 2020, 11:57   #502
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till May 31, 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by msdivy View Post
Most of the graphs shown are cumulative and in some, y-axis zoomed up to...

You can see linear growth. overall goal must be to minimize deaths.
Please be aware that we don't have any data. Reading too much into small sets of data is likely to mislead us even more than admitting that we don't have the required quality and quantity of data to make decisions.
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Old 7th April 2020, 12:08   #503
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Default

Countries which said that containment is enough and the economy should not be sacrificed have sacrificed lives and their economy is dead. Only a few countries where the leadership and public has been able to put the country before self interest have be able to control the spread. Examples are some Middle East countries, Singapore, Japan and India.
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Old 7th April 2020, 12:13   #504
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till May 31, 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by V.Narayan View Post
CAUTION: Controversial views

.[/i]
This sounded like Trump talking a month back. Now even a person like Trump has realized the gravity of situation. So let us stop posting controversial views unless backed up by scientific data.
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Old 7th April 2020, 12:18   #505
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till May 31, 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nalin1 View Post
This lockdown has done exactly what was expected. Lakhs on the streets without food and shelter, thousands of small businesses closed down and struggling to make ends meet etc.

Has it done what its actual purpose was? Arresting the virus spread? Nobody knows.

The virus is continuing on its merry way and we probably would have been exactly in this position even without a lockdown. And now we need to resolve the zillion other problems !.
I request all those people with this viewpoint the volunteer for the Indian government/State government COVID-19 duty. Though practical reason not permitting, it would be nice to see them manning an emergency department reception at-least.

This would be my Humble opinion.

1. Lockdown has been successful to certain extent. Though this virus is more virulent than the swine flu we have not seen the surge in cases. Even in 2015 flu season we had ICUs flooding with swine flu cases, which is not happening now. Even the dengue, malaria, typhoids, pneumonias and UTIs are less as people are resting and recovering faster than regular times.
2. HCP have been seeing multiple edges of this virus. We have lost significant revenue because of the outbreak and the shutdown. We can't work from home. We get exposed and at higher risk - I just returned home from self imposed (away from home stay at hospital) quarantine, lasting 16 days. Many of us might loose our life if the Emergency rooms gets flooded. Many of us loose our livelihood as Emergency rooms are near empty.
3. Economy can be repaired - Indians work hard, atleast those I know. We work 25*8*366 and recover the loss. Its possible.
4. Young lives lost can not be recovered, arm-chair, Internet, Contra arguers will shut themselves inside their ivory towers. We wont even have people to clear the dead bodies if the same situation like Wuhan or US occurs.
5. IF those poor people stay put, in many parts of the country GOI is distributing essentials through PDS and their daily requirements are minimal - Kaana, Kapda and Makaan. All the other requirements are driven by greed economy.
6. Only problem would be with the Small scale Industries, Small restaurants, Above Poverty line Middle class people, Owners of Hotels, Tour operators, Cab owners. These people will not be covered by GOI welfare measures and would be seriously affected.
7.Lockdown has slowed the progress in comparison to other countries and considering the general common senses and cleanliness in our country. We have bought time to get more masks, more PPEs, more ventilators, better data from all over the world, sense of reality to the masses, Social distancing lessons etc.,

Last edited by aadya : 7th April 2020 at 12:23.
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Old 7th April 2020, 12:22   #506
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till May 31, 2020

If someone is asking which is more important - economy or lives, i think it's wrong question to ask. Economy cannot exist in isolation. It's only natural that some of the fragilities in the economy get exposed in times like this.

When dust settles, i hope there are lessons to be learnt on how to make the society more equitable for all.
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Old 7th April 2020, 13:50   #507
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till May 31, 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by carboy View Post
As I said, we won't be able to figure out which is a better strategy till atleast a year passes. May be one strategy has more short term pain but is better in the long term & the other strategy has lesser short term pain but is worse in the long term. We can't say as of now.
Not really, please understand that we dont have options A, B, C, just look at america they tried to save economy without lock down now situation is they will loose people, economy, cripple healthcare system, and now risking lives of doctors and nurses.
Lockdown is our best chance and only option A and we have to take that risk , atleast we have a chance of recovering by slowly opening up the economy and saving more lives
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Old 7th April 2020, 14:12   #508
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till May 31, 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by splitsecond View Post
just look at america they tried to save economy without lock down now situation is they will loose people, economy, cripple healthcare system, and now risking lives of doctors and nurses.
As I said, we still don't know if it's a bad decision. We will not know for a year. Maybe one option has better long term effects but worse short term effects & the other option has the opposite. We don't know yet. We won't know.


And instead of India vs US, a better comparison for the long term would be Sweden/Netherlands vs rest of the world.

Quote:
Originally Posted by splitsecond View Post
Lockdown is our best chance
Lockdown for how long? It would have to be till a vaccine is ready and production is scaled to vaccinate at least 60-70% of world population. Which may be a really long time.
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Old 7th April 2020, 14:12   #509
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till May 31, 2020

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Originally Posted by Nalin1 View Post
The virus is continuing on its merry way and we probably would have been exactly in this position even without a lockdown.
I hope you are not joking.
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Old 7th April 2020, 14:12   #510
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till May 31, 2020

From NYTimes, How Will We Know When It’s Time to Reopen the Nation?

Quote:
Hospitals in the state must be able to safely treat all patients requiring hospitalization, without resorting to crisis standards of care.

A state needs to be able to test at least everyone who has symptoms.

The state is able to conduct monitoring of confirmed cases and contacts.

There must be a sustained reduction in cases for at least 14 days.
Because the infected person may not show symptoms till 14-days, hopefully this 21-day lockdown in India is proves productive towards that.
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