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View Poll Results: Do you support the lockdown extension?
Yes 218 45.32%
No 197 40.96%
I'm unsure 66 13.72%
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Old 9th April 2020, 12:01   #586
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till May 31, 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by TRR View Post
..If the deaths are low, it is because governments across the world stepped in and did the best things they could
I don't agree with you that the fatality number is low because governments have locked down. NYC has not locked down. So, their numbers are not reflective of fatalities in a closed society. And their fatality rate is 4%. That number is not low due to any measures taken by government. We can take that as a number that is reflective of deaths in an open society where people voluntarily exercise restraint. So, even if we up that number to a 5% or 6% fatality rate for those infected in our country, how is that justification for keeping 1.3 billion people from their daily bread?

If you want evidence of how a closed economy will hurt more, look at the US and at NYC again. Despite the illness in its current stage in their country, the US, and indeed NYC, has NOT issued a full country-wide lockdown even now. Why do you think that is? Do you think that they are somehow less caring about their citizens, or are less intelligent than we are here? No. That is not the case. The only real conclusion is that while an open economy is really hurting due to this virus, a closed one will hurt infinitely more. With a fatality rate of 5% or even 6% of those infected, any pathogen is proportionately never going to be as dangerous as mass unemployment is going to be. That is plain as day.


Quote:
Originally Posted by TRR View Post
..dismissing 88,000 deaths worldwide
Please stop pointing to 6000 deaths in NYC or even the 80000 deaths in the world. If we are to enact measures to combat every death that isn't caused by old age, then we would have to keep society locked down forever.

But really, the argument here is not about at what death number will the trade-off of closing the economy be considered worth it. Although it is that to an extent. The real point in discussion here is more philosophical -

When I did not create and release this virus and when YOU ARE NOT WILLING OR ABLE to pay me for wages lost, then as long as I am not symptomatic and have no travel history, you DO NOT have the right to tell me TO NOT GO TO WORK work citing your safety, or my safety, or anyone else's safety.

This really is the central concept being discussed here. We are essentially forcing people to make sacrifices. When did we as a free society agree to that concept?

Finally, let me say this. Your claims that so many people will die if a lockdown is lifted are just that, claims; albeit based on the pandemic trajectory elsewhere. In the mean time, due to this lockdown, 9 people in my team have lost their meaning within my company and are looking at an unceremonious exit anytime now. Another 6 more are in the pipeline to lose their jobs. That is NOT conjecture. That is a fact for us, for me and for my org. So, this discussion is not merely academic for me. Will you or the others who are pushing for a prolonged lockdown pay my colleague's salaries in perpetuity until they find new jobs? If the answer is that you won't or that you can't, then I repeat what I said earlier; you have no right to deny me and my team the right to work to earn a living, which is exactly what has been done here.

P.S.
Yes, unemployment numbers are high in the US. But, the US is one of the strongest economies. They have a high GDP and the ability to pay for a lot of public services. We don't. Incidentally, we don't even have an official mechanism to gauge unemployment here because people can't file for unemployment benefits here. So, the numbers in India will never officially be known. Also, they have lots of safety nets over in the West - state and federal welfare schemes, food stamps, medicare and medicaid, and social security to name a few. Here, we have no safety net at all.

Last edited by Sheel : 9th April 2020 at 20:02. Reason: As requested.
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Old 9th April 2020, 12:18   #587
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till May 31, 2020

Seems to be authentic - report on the KA expert panel attached.
Attached Files
File Type: pdf CoVid Lockdown Exit Strategy for Karnataka.pdf.pdf (364.2 KB, 189 views)
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Old 9th April 2020, 12:33   #588
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till May 31, 2020

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Originally Posted by poloman View Post
The total corona virus deaths in Kerala so far is 2. This despite the state is highly globalized and have a high number of diaspora outside the country. Lot of people had moved in before just before the lock down.

But 24 Malayalis have so far died outside the country primarily in US and UK. In many cases the relatives are now saying that the patient would have survived had they been in Kerala.


What is one required to conclude from this? How better is an Indian state in handling the pandemic or how bad is the situation in countries like USA and UK?
I think what is helping Kerela is the last year's Nipah virus scare. People knew first hand what could happen if a virus gets out of hand. My city went through a virtual lockdown even without government orders during that time with empty streets and roads. The government's tracking and isolation machinery got a lot of practice and the processes that were established then are coming very handy now. It helps to have an entire set of ministers, bureaucrats, and medical practitioners who got to rehearse the whole thing in a smaller scale just a year back.

Last edited by padmrajravi : 9th April 2020 at 12:35.
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Old 9th April 2020, 12:35   #589
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till May 31, 2020

The word 'lockdown' is being thrown around liberally here. But what people need to understand is that it very different in different countries. For those pointing out to lockdowns in Europe or Singapore, even the stricter lockdowns there are much more liberal than the current lockdown in India. Most establishments are still open in Singapore and also the public transport is operational. They are more enforcing on masks and distancing though they call it a lockdown. They have not forced everyone to stop working.

Europe has a huge social safety net and hence can afford to pay the people impacted by this.

The goverments should be taking a call on the level of shutdown/lockdown based on the ground realities in their respective countries.

Last edited by vb-san : 9th April 2020 at 12:52. Reason: Last line removed to avoid political discussions. Thank you!
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Old 9th April 2020, 12:53   #590
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till May 31, 2020

Just read the news that Orissa is officially exending the lockdown till 30th April.

I was hoping that states would think of gradually phasing the lockdown.
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Old 9th April 2020, 12:54   #591
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till May 31, 2020

States have started announcing extension of the lockdown. Odisha CM Naveen Patnaik has announced extension till April 30 and has requested the Centre not to resume railways and air services till April 30. I think many other states will follow suit with similar announcements which will be formalized with a support from the Centre.

https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1248140751600521217

https://www.deccanherald.com/nationa...17-823176.html

Last edited by ashis89 : 9th April 2020 at 12:56.
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Old 9th April 2020, 13:13   #592
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till May 31, 2020

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Originally Posted by m8002? View Post
The word 'lockdown' is being thrown around liberally here. But what people need to understand is that it very different in different countries. For those pointing out to lockdowns in Europe or Singapore, even the stricter lockdowns there are much more liberal than the current lockdown in India. Most establishments are still open in Singapore and also the public transport is operational. They are more enforcing on masks and distancing though they call it a lockdown. They have not forced everyone to stop working.

Europe has a huge social safety net and hence can afford to pay the people impacted by this.

The goverments should be taking a call on the level of shutdown/lockdown based on the ground realities in their respective countries.
That is a very useful post. A small post but has a huge impact on all the discussions here.

I think that pretty much sums up what we mean by restrictions and precautions.

It HAS to be restrictions and precautions only and not a complete lockdown (that is after the current lockdown ends as we cannot undo it).

Some posts earlier have beautifully described the pros and cons of all the various decisions that can be taken.

Yes, we are caught between the devil and the deep blue sea. Yesterday on one of the news channels, Sanjay Jha was making some very commendable points I thought. He said "we just need to accept that we have to live with the virus for a few weeks or months, but look to restart our lives slowly with masks, sanitizers, social distancing etc".

Whatever may have been his motive behind those talks, to me he was making a lot of sense.
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Old 9th April 2020, 13:58   #593
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till May 31, 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by itwasntme View Post
Seems to be authentic - report on the KA expert panel attached.
This is authentic and ties in neatly with all news reports which have summarised important aspects of this report.
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Old 9th April 2020, 14:13   #594
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till May 31, 2020

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Originally Posted by itwasntme View Post
Seems to be authentic - report on the KA expert panel attached.
Just went though it and gives some good practical suggestions. Hope it gets implemented.
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Old 9th April 2020, 14:21   #595
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till May 31, 2020

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Originally Posted by Nalin1 View Post
It HAS to be restrictions and precautions only and not a complete lockdown
In India this CANNOT work, period! We have such a huge population and a lot of them complete idiots.

Before even thinking of comparing what Singapore etc are doing, do consider the following scenarios:

1) When our PM asked us to thank medical services etc with claps from our homes, what did our responsible people do - they came out in hordes on the streets, doing exactly what we were not supposed to do and perhaps adding to the infection spread.

2) When our PM asked us to light lamps, torches etc, again what did our responsible people do - they came out in hordes on the streets, bursting crackers and setting fires in the process. The pollution levels which came down due to the lockdown went up again. Again, perhaps adding to the infection spread.

3) Our poor, poor Police, nursing staff, Doctors who are braving unsurmountable odds, working themselves to death are being attacked by mobs.

Need I say more? Before subscribing to herd mentality and losing touch with reality by comparing our situation with Singapore, take cognisance of the above facts and so much more if people are watching the news.

The only way for India to come out of this situation is by our PM to stop folding his hands and requesting people, he has to make his hand into an iron fist and come down hard on people who break the law and jeopardise others by their actions. If anyone is attacking our Doctors, Nurses, Police personnel, give them the authority to shoot them down, and shoot to kill. The whole situation will change, no one will dare break the law. Right now they know nothing will happen to them, so they do it with impunity.

Cheers
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Old 9th April 2020, 14:22   #596
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till May 31, 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by mohansrides View Post
But really, the argument here is not about at what death number will the trade-off of closing the economy be considered worth it. Although it is that to an extent. The real point in discussion here is more philosophical -

When I did not create and release this virus, and when I am not symptomatic and have no travel history, you DO NOT have the right to tell me NOT TO work for your safety, or my safety, or anyone else's safety, if YOU ARE NOT WILLING OR ABLE to pay me for wages lost.
You are absolutely right about the philosophical question but let me modify it a little bit:

When I did not create and release this virus, and when I am not symptomatic and have no travel history, and I have been tested to be non-infected and thus a non-carrier of potentially fatal disease you DO NOT have the right to tell me NOT TO work for your safety, or my safety, or anyone else's safety, if YOU ARE NOT WILLING OR ABLE to pay me for wages lost.

The problem is:
1) That we do not have a list of guys who are certified Covid free, and thus should face no restriction in working

2) We really don't know the actual fatality numbers. All the death rates, the number of infected etc all depends on how many people were tested for it. So we are kind of running blind

3) Covid has spread so far and so fast that we don't have any precedent. Historically we haven't faced such a pandemic in our lifetimes. I was trying to argue with a friend about similarity with regular seasonal flu, swine flu, bird flu, SARS etc - was amused seeing the limited spread of those compared to this and was forced to admit to him that this is indeed different

I am absolutely not opposing your thought, because I know (and I sincerely hope all the political leaders and administrators have this much of common sense) that you can control public and expect them to be well behaved only if they are well fed.

If weeks of lockdown leads to months of reduced business activity, which in turn leads to years of unemployment - we will surely see a gradual deterioration of law & order. A situation which would be as bad as the pandemic.

Quote:
This really is the central concept being discussed here. We are essentially forcing people to make sacrifices. When did we as a free society agree to that concept?
in civilized society (since time immemorial) actually everytime.

The whole concept of society (ranging from a small family to a large nation-state) has been about sacrificing the whims of an individual for a greater good of all the members.
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Old 9th April 2020, 14:41   #597
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till May 31, 2020

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Originally Posted by Cyborg View Post
In India this CANNOT work, period! We have such a huge population and a lot of them complete idiots.
Cheers
Absolutely right!. Not a good time to laugh, I know.

Yes that is the challenge. I think we have resigned to the fact that we will fail this challenge and hence the blanket ban.

But actually the Karnataka Government is thinking along those lines right now with lockdowns only in some hotspot areas with other areas slowly opening up to 50% of their activities. They will take a decision in a day or two after consulting the PM.

I only saw that on TV and hence do not have a link to post here now.

It is standby for now.
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Old 9th April 2020, 14:43   #598
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till May 31, 2020

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Originally Posted by xcentrk View Post
@vivek95: I always have this lingering question in my mind since the talks about covid-19 is started. What is the actual lifetime of this virus inside an asymptomatic carrier.

Let's take the scenario 1 mentioned by @civic-sense.

Let's assume after 3 months the lock-down is lifted. Will it be possible for any asymptomatic carrier to transmit this disease even after 3 month quarantine. If that's the case, then I am out of words. Or will it die down on it's own after few months?.
Hello

Anything "actual" about this virus is unknown yet

However, the 1 month or 3 month lockdown period is not based on the infectivity power of virus but on many other epidemiological factors that only the epidemiology experts can comment. So please be informed, purpose of lockdown is only to "control" the pandemic.

Going by the medical literature, an asymptomatic carrier, as long as he/she harbors the virus and sheds it, is capable of transmitting the virus to others.

My honest perspective below since you have raised the point of asymptomatic carriers and the general concern in this thread about what if there is one or few persons left with this virus ?? --

1.Reiterating that the target of lockdown should only be flattening the curve. Cases will still be erupting after that, but enforcing lockdown until 100% eradication is unscientific and impossible. If the Govts of any country for that matter keep extending the lockdown until the last asymptomatic person is caught hold or a "zero" case is detected, then nothing can be more utterly foolish.

2. Check around, you think SARS, MERS, Ebola are all gone from this planet ?? No. Do they have specific treatment or vaccine ? A big NO. Did the world stop for these diseases which carry a very high fatality rate ?? - No, never.

3. Only reason Covid-19 has created havoc because it is new and fast spreading but that does not mean even with the sporadic clusters of cases, the lockdown stays indefinitely in the entire country or world. Even worst, should the lockdown stay until there is a specific drug or vaccine is developed ?? -- Too early to comment but I am more inclined towards "No".

4. Does this mean I am supporting the lifting of the lockdown in the current scenario ?? - Definitely NOT, as the spurt of cases has just begun. The pandemic is far from control. For this moment, this is the right step but we as human beings, who are at the top of food chain, the highest intellectual beings created by God ( humbly saying with all due respect ) should adapt and recourse accordingly. World is an ecosystem afterall. Viruses will remain.

5. Has Meghalaya state government with Zero COVID-19 cases taken the right decision to relax the lockdown ?? - Too early to comment but as long as they ensure anyone entering the state is properly screened and quarantined for a 14 day period, then an honest Yes !

Nonetheless, stay home, stay safe. We don't know what will we wake up to tomorrow morning and let Almighty guide the mankind. Paranoia is not what God would want us to live with forever.

All counter reactions to my post by fellow medicos and non-medicos on this forum are welcome.

--Dr. Vivek
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Old 9th April 2020, 14:45   #599
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till May 31, 2020

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Originally Posted by itwasntme View Post
Seems to be authentic - report on the KA expert panel attached.
Two (specially the first one) points from the expert report that struck me as very important are as under:
India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till May 31, 2020-img_20200409_144004.jpg

Last edited by aah78 : 9th April 2020 at 18:38. Reason: Picture inserted in-line.
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Old 9th April 2020, 15:07   #600
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till May 31, 2020

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Originally Posted by dailydriver View Post
Two (specially the first one) points from the expert report that struck me as very important are as under:
Economic slowdown or human lives, take your pick. By opening things up the cost will be very, very heavy with human lives. We will be decimating the population and the spread of the virus will reach epic proportions. There will be no way to pull back and India will become the world number one with infected cases and deaths. Do we really want that?

I am quite sure the lockdown will be extended to at least 30th April at most places and a staggered opening at others. This is the only way.

Letís see, all will be revealed by our dear PM very shortly.

Cheers
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