[Chetan_Rao]

Originally Posted by vinit.merchant

...
My point being majority businesses are going to suffer now, lockdown or no lockdown, because people all over the world are preferring to stay home...

The answer lies in human psychology. It's far easier to dial up paranoia than to dial it down.

To be fair, none of the global administrations in charge of managing this pandemic knew what the timeline looked like, but everyone had a reasonable idea that it won't be over in the short-term, and that we'll need people to come out eventually, gradually with restrictions still in place, and try to revive/rebuild while pandemic response runs in parallel. That was the stated goal of lockdown, everywhere.

What we needed, and what we lacked (still do), is effective messaging. We pushed people down the path of being paranoid about the virus to ensure lockdown worked, knowing full well that lockdown can't & won't last forever and we'll need to ask the same people to start coming out (with precautions).

I don't blame the people for wanting to stay in now. We're humans, not machines that can be switched from 'this will kill you if you step out' to 'this will be around for a long while, learn to live with it'.

Crippling paranoia, induced for short-term compliance, is going to unleash major long-term damage.

[sunishsamuel]

I have been reading about opening up local liquor/wine shops so that states do not suffer "revenue loss"

I think it will be disastrous to open these shops when everything is locked down and unemployment is a big challenge. If you see the profile of people buying liquor from the local shops, most of them are daily wage earners. With no money coming to their hands, what if they resort to selling their assets and start domestic violence only to quench their thirst ? The other major revenue generators like pubs, restaurants, upscale wine shops (in malls especially) are anyways closed because malls etc are not allowed to open yet.

Agree on the risk of spurious liquor and the danger lurking around. I do not have a solution to offer for the current situation - i only hope that the testing and treatment /quarantine processes are ramped up so that the lockdown can be lifted as early as possible.

Another question - We are still using the testing kits from China and multiple complaints raised regarding their quality and accuracy of the result. What happened to the much celebrated kit that was made in Pune by Mylabs ? Was it not supposed to be available by. this time to provide rapid and accurate results ? I am not seeing any news related to that in the recent times, or did i miss them ?

[wheelguy]

UP man stuck in Mumbai, wanting to go back to his home town, since movement of essential goods is allowed, buys a truck load of onions and disguised himself as an onion-trader to travel to hometown - Link

[m8002?]

With opinions on the easing of lockdown split right in the middle,the government is now left with holding the proverbial "tigers' tail". You are now damned if you open and damned if you don't. We kept pushing towards this extreme step, now it has become difficult to relax the lockdown and even more difficult to extend it further.

I feel if only people had clear timelines on how it will be lifted ( in stages or otherwise ), things would have been in better control. Now, no has any visibility on how things will be and on top we have conflicting news coming out of different organizations in the government. The order to open shops was a big mess yesterday with the beat constable or police inspector deciding which shops can be open.

The government now needs to act on war footing to give clear directions before people loose their patience and start violating all orders.

[Nalin1]

Originally Posted by vinit.merchant

Effects of the lockdown & the COVID-19

Something I have observed in last two months and realized, and will share it here.

From what I see, the major impact on the businesses is not the lockdown as much as it is the COVID-19 virus.

For once, let us assume that the lockdown was actually lifted tomorrow in India, for all businesses, for example. Let us not discuss the impact on virus spread for a while. How many businesses will actually do some business, apart from the essentials that is already open?
Would it be wrong to assume 70-80% people will continue to avoid parlors / theatres / malls / hotel accommodations / dine-in restaurants / vacations / automobiles / big ticket items and a lot more? Even without lockdown, a lot of jobs in these sectors will be lost. A sizable chunk.

Lockdown or no lockdown, the impact is bad for many sectors and the jobs dependent on them.

Very good point!. But that number is very less. The super paranoid group of people who will avoid restaurants, malls etc at least for a few months.

Then there is the extreme group who will wait for this virus to be eradicated from the face of this planet before they even step into crowded places.

What will majority do? This is India !. One announcement that the lockdown is somewhat relaxed (leave alone completely lifted), there will be a tsunami down the streets!.

Originally Posted by m8002?

With opinions on the easing of lockdown split right in the middle,the government is now left with holding the proverbial "tigers' tail". You are now damned if you open and damned if you don't. We kept pushing towards this extreme step, now it has become difficult to relax the lockdown and even more difficult to extend it further.

The government now needs to act on war footing to give clear directions before people loose their patience and start violating all orders.

Very nicely put!. Yes, it is the tiger's tail now.

Each one is looking at the other person's face for the first action. Then lets watch the reaction!.

[ashokrajagopal]

There are basically two options for Govt to follow after lockdown

a) Let Covid run thru the population in a calculated, controlled way

-- Requires top notch coordination of health care facilities across the country
-- Virtual grids to be put in place to channel personnel and stock
-- Daily tracking and modification of available beds, ICUS, ventillators etc across the country in a war room mode.
-- The obvious ones will continue to be closed -- like multiplexes, salons, massage parlors, crowded markets
-- All other commerce to be lifted in a phased manner with strict observation.
-- Reduced and severely controlled interstate travel.

b) Continue lockdown until the new cases are zero or near to zero

-- For every new case, deploy resources to track, trace and quarantine.
-- Requires magical handling of economy and resources
-- Top notch technology in tracking and tracing required.
-- Large infra and personnel required for quarantine and to provide the tracking and tracing assistance.
-- Opens up severe complications in terms of how the individual states fare against each other -- if a state gets to zero, does it open up ?
-- Commerce to remain in stand still apart from the absolutely necessary ones.
-- Completely blocked interstate travel.



The first style was followed by countries like Sweden and the second style by countries like South Korea.
What style we will follow, is anybody's guess.

May be R+ tv is right, we just have to trust the government

[Turbanator]

We are now in the week 6 of the lockdown. As things are, in an absolute number of Known Covid patients as well Deaths, we seem to better placed than other countries. Especially if we talk about mortalities as this is something difficult to hide or need a Test.

Now, if the results are to be believed with whatever factor, it will interest to find out - How many outside state labourers / students or residents got the Covid in First 2 weeks, 4 weeks and say at end of 6 weeks. If I am not mistaken, these numbers will be tiny at least until 4 weeks. Implying, if the Government had shown little patience in locking everything overnight, things could have been far better. Or at least for this segment, which have suffered the most until now. Like, how difficult would have been for the Railways/ State Transports or Flights to accept travel of the people who want to head back at start? Like a major % of the people who have voted in favour of the lockdown, these guys could have happily stayed with their families and the state Governments would have one less work to worry about.

Now, after 6 weeks, many states are planning for their return, it's anybody's guess how many people they will infect. They should hold someone responsible and instead of defending from past errors should think more before doing anything fresh in a hurry.

[V.Narayan]

https://www.thehindu.com/data/data-9...le31384413.ece

Survey of 11,000+ stranded out of State workers across various States shows that 96% of those surveyed did not get any support or rations from the Govt. and 70% have only Rs 200 or less left.

Where ‘did not receive rations’ is concerned 100% of those surveyed in UP said they had not received any rations from the Govt. In Maharashtra the figure is 99%. In Karnataka it is 98%.

No survey is perfect. But this is a true directional indicator of the state of affairs despite the claims by various Govt agencies. There must be some happy exceptions, I’m sure. But for the vast majority this is probably the true.

[_chikku]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

https://www.thehindu.com/data/data-9...le31384413.ece



No survey is perfect. But this is a true directional indicator of the state of affairs despite the claims by various Govt agencies. There must be some happy exceptions, I’m sure. But for the vast majority this is probably the true.

Then whom are we distributing food 3 times everyday? There are about 75 people in queue near my house for food. Did they include them? Akshyapatra said when started distribution it ran out of people to pack food. I agree there are hungry or hangry people but 98% ? It purely depends who is doing survey. Rightly said, no survey is perfect. Govt is officially distributing rations only to ration card holders, rest all of them will get from some serving organization or groups. These people will always say government is not helping them.

[civic-sense]

Originally Posted by joslicx

Think about viability also. A lot of businesses would be very deeply hurt. It's not like everybody is sitting on a huge pile of cash. Think about a hair salon. You took a loan and started an upscale salon. Now you have lot of fixed costs. There's rent, employee salaries, maybe previous bills for consumables etc to pay, electricity bills, etc etc. But there's absolutely no income now. And no visibility of an income for quite some time. Who is going to come for haircuts and other more income generating beauty procedures now. Most customers are themselves conserving their cash in these times. So now what do you do? How long can you keep operating? Most small and medium size businesses aren't necessarily run by people with deep pockets.

Not having a reserve was a business decision. And one has to take responsibility for their own decisions.

It is not as if you should single out one entity (businesses) to shoulder all the burden. The employer and the employee should together should work out a workable solution. If the employee does not have enough reserves that is his problem too. These are the kind of situations you save money for. Not for your kids to inherit.

[msdivy]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

But this is a true directional indicator of the state of affairs despite the claims by various Govt agencies.

The Indian Govts have spent the last 70 years precisely solving this problem - How to put money into the hands that need it & How to put grains in the homes that need them, without pilferage.

Lockdown won't fix these long-standing systemic problems.

[V.Narayan]

Originally Posted by _chikku

Then whom are we distributing food 3 times everyday? There are about 75 people in queue near my house for food. Did they include them? Akshyapatra said when started distribution it ran out of people to pack food. I agree there are hungry or hangry people but 98% ? It purely depends who is doing survey. Rightly said, no survey is perfect.

As I said no survey is perfect and their conclusions are directional. The flip side is we cannot use our personal experience which at best is an infinitesimal fraction of the whole to question the survey. Depending on which measure we use the number of stranded/displaced number is 5 or 10 million or higher. Pray what fraction of 5 million is this personal observation of 75? Do we really need to sit in the comfort of our homes and dole out sarcasm when humans going hungry are being discussed. Please.

[_chikku]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

As I said no survey is perfect and their conclusions are directional. The flip side is we cannot use our personal experience which at best is an infinitesimal fraction of the whole to question the survey. Depending on which measure we use the number of stranded/displaced number is 5 or 10 million or higher. Pray what fraction of 5 million is this personal observation of 75? Do we really need to sit in the comfort of our homes and dole out sarcasm when humans going hungry are being discussed. Please.

I don't want to play here. Link you posted says
11,159 workers were surveyed over different states. If someone says 98% have been hungry from the lockdown days based on this survey, is it trustworthy? Is this not a propaganda?

[Miyata]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

https://www.thehindu.com/data/data-9...le31384413.ece

I am not surprised reading this. I was speaking with folks in my village - while authorities wanted to implement lockdown very strictly, people in the village cooperated for a while till they discovered they are receiving no help from any quarter!

Once they found they are on their own, they pushed the cops out and went ahead with harvesting (wheat + other stuff) and helping each other out with essentials like grains/vegetables/oil/etc. They did apparently take necessary precautions though - covering the mouth and nose; multiple handwashes in the course of the day.

Many of the NGOs did serve many many localities around. But the "migrant workers" were in a bit of a pickle since not everyone could reach them. And the government mechanism for reaching out is beset with gross incompetence, as is usually the case.

The problem though is not that the government does not sent out money and materials for aid. That they apparently do. What they do not do is have a process in the place that holds the web of distribution accountable and corruption free - this is where all aid is lost and the river dries up before reaching the destination.

Nonetheless, it would still be classified as a failure of the government since it is them that needs to ensure that a well calibrated accountability and corruption free process for this distribution is established to move the wheels forward in the right direction and to the right destinations.

[V.Narayan]

Originally Posted by _chikku

I don't want to play here. Link you posted says
11,159 workers were surveyed over different states. If someone says 98% have been hungry from the lockdown days based on this survey, is it trustworthy? Is this not a propaganda?

Propaganda by whom against whom???? Please read the report before getting into a battle with me on your political sensitivities. Check which States were covered and also the survey represents States ruled by more than one party and at least one ruled by a coalition. Read the report first then argue.