[Lobogris]

Originally Posted by m8002?

With opinions on the easing of lockdown split right in the middle,the government is now left with holding the proverbial "tigers' tail". You are now damned if you open and damned if you don't. We kept pushing towards this extreme step, now it has become difficult to relax the lockdown and even more difficult to extend it further.

I feel if only people had clear timelines on how it will be lifted ( in stages or otherwise ), things would have been in better control. Now, no has any visibility on how things will be and on top we have conflicting news coming out of different organizations in the government. The order to open shops was a big mess yesterday with the beat constable or police inspector deciding which shops can be open.

The government now needs to act on war footing to give clear directions before people loose their patience and start violating all orders.

This is exactly what I stated at the start. If after 5 weeks, the total cases were only 10,000, people would have said, look it is working. Don’t make a mistake and ruin all this hard work and sacrifice. If on the other hand, the total cases are around 35 to 40k as it seems likely now, then people would claim that the numbers would be much higher if the lockdown is removed.

We made the mistake of going for the most extreme step at the very beginning leaving no scope for graded response. From the outset, instead of locking down and shutting everything and then slowly opening up, we should have closed only what was absolutely required and that too as a last resort. Taking away people’s livelihoods and liberty is an extreme measure and it should not be the first response. The government should have consulted the industry along with medical experts to formulate a plan to allow the maximum amount of businesses to continue to function.

We also have to stop our current paranoid reaction on every new case that results in sealing a large area. An area should only be sealed if at least 20 to a 100 people become positive and all other measures have failed. For example, a neighbourhood case count grows to 20. We test the at risk contacts, isolate possible at risk ones in home quarantine, spread awareness by door to door visits, encourage social distancing and masks etc. However the case count grows to 50 there. Then we can have some stricter measures finally followed by a total lockdown there if needed. Same goes for a factory or building. Sealing for weeks due to one or two cases is not sustainable. We need a quick sanitisation response where we close the place for a few hours to a day to sanitise and review protocols and quickly reopen it.

The scope of the problem will become clear in the coming weeks. If we keep shutting down area after area, soon there will be no one available to perform essential services.

[Turbanator]

Originally Posted by _chikku

Then whom are we distributing food 3 times everyday? There are about 75 people in queue near my house for food. Did they include them?

Good that you are able to contribute in whatever way. Numbers won't matter. Idea should be to do whatever possible.

What I make from the news is the Help from the Government and not private individuals or NGO's or religious places. I don't know why is this based on Ration Card, can they not add this in Adhaar? Everyone carries that all the time and a quick scan or punch in the system should be enough to approve free ration. When Government can link everything with Adhaar, what stops them to linking ration card?


Data | 96% migrant workers did not get rations from the government, 90% did not receive wages during lockdown

Originally Posted by Lobogris

We made the mistake of going for the most extreme step at the very beginning leaving no scope for graded response.

Correct, not just everything but also with Zero preparations or giving an opportunity to the needy, they stopped everything. I don't know what will happen next, many of the guys who are returning back are carrying the disease and some of the states like Punjab have turned complete Districts as Zones. Some are doing better like Haryana where they are having many Blocks in a District. A place like Chandigarh is completely under curfew with less than 40 cases.

[mohansrides]

Originally Posted by vinit.merchant

..For once, let us assume that the lockdown was actually lifted tomorrow in India, for all businesses, for example. Let us not discuss the impact on virus spread for a while. How many businesses will actually do some business, apart from the essentials that is already open?....

My point being majority businesses are going to suffer now, lockdown or no lockdown, because people all over the world are preferring to stay home.

Lockdown or no lockdown, the impact is bad for many sectors and the jobs dependent on them.

This view has been advanced here before. But, the logic that I will impose on you what you would probably have chosen anyway is flawed on many levels. First, it is morally wrong to force a choice on this scale. Second, no one really knows if people would have stayed home for sure. I think given a choice, those who are fearful would have stayed home; and others who wish to take the risk for their livelihoods would have chosen differently.

I will agree with you about one thing. Lockdown or not, we are looking at a troubled economy. But, the point being made here is that we have pushed the economy into exponentially more troubled waters with the lockdown and with the fear that was created to enforce the lockdown.

Originally Posted by Chetan_Rao

..Crippling paranoia, induced for short-term compliance, is going to unleash major long-term damage.

Spot on. When the PM comes on TV and says "Bahar jaana maut ko ghar bulane ke barabar hai..", what do you expect the people to interpret? Even at that time, I thought that the statement was far-fetched. But, at the time we were dismissing China's data as being disingenuous. So, I thought that maybe the true picture was more dangerous and that statement was warranted. In any case, I understood that the statement had to be made to get people to comply with a lockdown.

But, now seeing as to how the disease is playing out amidst the infected population here and around the world, I think that the assessment that this disease is certain-death is so far from the truth that it is not even worth mentioning.

For the record, we lose roughly 1.5 lac people every year due to auto accidents. What's more, there is enough evidence about causal links between passive smoking and cancer. But, we certainly have not banned cigarettes despite smoking being a more willful display of disregard of others' health.

Originally Posted by m8002?

With opinions on the easing of lockdown split right in the middle,the government is now left with holding the proverbial "tigers' tail".

Very nicely put. I agree with your assessment in general, but with one exception. This thread on our forum is not a good sample of general public sentiment. The general opinion out there is NOT split down the middle I think. Even people who originally thought that the lockdown was a good idea are now waking up to the reality of an economically crippled society. Go to this link. Then click on the button for comments at the bottom. You don't have to read each comment. Just the first few words of each comment will give you a sense of public sentiment.

One anecdote for you. My aunt has been a Syndicate Bank employee for 30 straight years. She is well over 50 and has been on the front-lines of the bank's lending business in Mumbai for 3 decades. With her tenure, she could have become a senior officer if she had wished. But, she always felt that promotions came with deputation to another geographic location. Being a pukka Mumbaikar she has never wanted to be away from the City and away from her family.

Coming back to this topic, she has been going to the office on alternate days right from March 25th. When I called her this morning, I fully expected her to be worried about catching the infection. Also, I expected a tone from her that was along the lines of "I am a Covid warrior who has been putting myself at risk for society...". Instead, in typical Mumbai style, she brushed off my thank yous and first asked me about my company and my job. Then, she categorically said that if ever there was a disproportionate response to a crisis, then this lockdown was it. She said that we are potentially looking at a welfare state financed by nothing but defense spending. Many banks are apparently sitting on a pile of money that they are looking to lend (as per RBI guidelines); only no one is coming to take loans in a lockdown and they do not expect the situation to change even post-lockdown until consumer demand has risen.

She said, "Yeh piddu sa virus ke liye itna bhi darna nahin chahiye..."

For what it's worth, she also went on to say some very uncharitable things about the administration that I won't repeat here. Keep in mind that almost everyone in our family voted for this administration. She herself voted for this administration despite witnessing first hand how demonetisation played out for her bank's customers and account holders. During those times, she forgave the fallout as

a.) it was seen as a bold step towards attacking an entrenched problem.
b.) a lot of us were not hoarding cash. So, we were not directly affected.

But this time, things are very different.

Originally Posted by 400notout

..The western countries are in damage control mode, whereas we have prevented a lot of damage as of now. ..

I don't think that we have prevented any damage. We have just moved the damage from one column to another in the balance sheet. The collateral damage due to this lockdown is so far reaching that we are only seeing the tip of the iceberg in terms of losses to life due to the lockdown.

Originally Posted by 400notout

..A huge part of the economy is already dead. Hospitality - dead, Travel and tourism - dead, Malls - dead, Recreational areas - dead. Non essential retail - next in line.

This situation is here to stay ..

Your statement made me think a lot. We actually talked about what you have said both in our office calls and at home. I can't speak for my colleagues. But in my family, after long deliberations and after looking at all the information that has come out so far, we have all decided that once the lockdown has been lifted, we will certainly adhere by all rules and guidelines set out by the government. But, within the framework of those rules, we will absolutely patronise every business there is around us. We will go to the mall. We will eat out. We will take a vacation once the planes are flying. In short, we will absolutely not let this virus stop us from living our lives. We actually think that it is darn near our patriotic duty to help local businesses get thru' this crisis.

By the way, before you think that this is coming from some misplaced sense of bravado, let me assure you that it is actually quite the opposite. We are more afraid of an economy with big holes in its fabric than we are about the virus. This whole "jaan hai tho jahaan hai" line is utter nonsense. Agar jahaan nahin hai tho jaan rehke bhi koyi faida nahin hai. This is what we believe.

I mean, if we remain afraid, we will never be able to send our kids to school, or be able to meet relatives and friends, or be able to do anything at all. We for one do not want to live in a dystopian society where our food is delivered by drones while we are cocooned away from other homo sapiens. That is not life at all.

Also, there really is no escaping this virus. With it's staying power, it will get around to infecting the people who it would have infected anyway, lockdown or not. So, might as well go out there and live our lives and help the economy get off the ground. We want to be able to generate employment for as many people as we possibly can. Short of being entrepreneurs, this is the best we can do at the moment.**

** On that note, we are super scared about the risks. But, if we get guidance and support about solving the sales side of things, at some point, we would be willing to be entrepreneurs to help create jobs. By God's grace, I hope that happens.

[yd_gli]

Originally Posted by _chikku

Then whom are we distributing food 3 times everyday? There are about 75 people in queue near my house for food.

Three words: Vote Bank Politics. This is akin to distribution of sarees/rice etc during festival season by the local politicians. Anybody and everybody who has a ration card wants to go get one irrespective of whether they need it or not. I live in a relatively affluent part of Pune and on Sunday morning, I observed a line of ~50 people. There are no migrants in this area and all the locals are getting paid for their household and car wash jobs even though they aren't doing them. Why should the local politician bother about the migrant/homeless chap when he can distribute it to his folks, get the required distribution numbers and votes in the next election as well.
Ideally, this distribution must be run by the home-guards or a another branch of the defense forces. Asking a local MLA/Corporator/local official to do it is just stupid.

[Guna]

Here is my advise to the government:

• Do not extend lockdown beyond May 3rd, rather continue sealing only the containment/hotspot areas. Sealing has to be really robust.
• Way to define these containment/hotspot areas should not be based on political/geographical map like district or ward but based on the spot where the Covid 19 positive cases exist and 2-3 kilometers all around
• Make use of the GPS data to find out where all the Covid 19 patients have roamed around and seal those as well (this may be possible only if the patients carry smartphone with GPS on).

[Samurai]

Today I went out get some groceries around 11:30am, I was surprised to see a decent amount of traffic. Even found bunch of traffic police without masks on, loitering around in a group ignoring all the traffic around. It almost looks like lockdown has partially ended and I didn't get a memo.

[DigitalOne]

Originally Posted by Turbanator

What I make from the news is the Help from the Government and not private individuals or NGO's or religious places. I don't know why is this based on Ration Card, can they not add this in Adhaar? Everyone carries that all the time and a quick scan or punch in the system should be enough to approve free ration. When Government can link everything with Adhaar, what stops them to linking ration card?

This is in the implementation and targeted for June 2020 before the Corona virus struck.


As per the Govt the plans for implementation by Jun 2020 are still on

[srini1785]

i go out to buy essentials around 5.30 - 6.00PM everyday and basically almost every thing is open. The local kirana shop, bakeries , chips and savories, stationary and even the mobile shops have opened. The only thing closed are the hotels , mechanic shops ( why?), tailoring and dress shops. Looks like the shop owners have had enough and one of them told me that they are ready to brazen it out. The main entrance to my layout is closed and police standing there seemed to not care. One of them told me that only those wards which are identified as hotspots would be closely monitored and others would almost be back to normal by 3.5.2020. That , IMHO, is asking for trouble.

[Nalin1]

Originally Posted by Lobogris

This is exactly what I stated at the start. If after 5 weeks, the total cases were only 10,000, people would have said, look it is working. Don’t make a mistake and ruin all this hard work and sacrifice. If on the other hand, the total cases are around 35 to 40k as it seems likely now, then people would claim that the numbers would be much higher if the lockdown is removed.

The scope of the problem will become clear in the coming weeks. If we keep shutting down area after area, soon there will be no one available to perform essential services.

It just got into most people's minds that the best possible weapon to fight this invisible enemy is to shut everything down.

Then after a few days, hope that the number of cases has at least reduced somehow. On April 15th that did not happen.

"Since we have not achieved the desired result yet, lets keep going with the lockdown until we have absolutely no cases reported from anywhere in India".

We had only one enemy to fight with!. Now we have a million and all of them are visible.

[vivek95]

I am praying for Sweden and hope they are able to give some insight about herd immunity if it's successful there. That might ofcourse cost some lives but that's true for the entire globe. People are dying everywhere. For whatever deaths have happened in India, also add those two deaths that BHPian @mohansrides had shared on this thread. Two young healthy lives lost due to extreme dehydration : In the entire EU, Sweden is hell bent on herd immunity and is only trying to enforce safe practices but not a lockdown. I hope and pray God that they emerge victorious

[fordday]

Originally Posted by _chikku

Then whom are we distributing food 3 times everyday? There are about 75 people in queue near my house for food. Did they include them?

I hope you are not extrapolating this 75 number to the whole country.

Originally Posted by _chikku

Akshyapatra said when started distribution it ran out of people to pack food.

Supply chain for everyone was affected badly and even big guys like Akshyapatra can be excused for not being able to serve. But that truth remains many went hungry as their livelihoods were snatched away for no fault of theirs, without giving them any other option.
PS: I am an everyday donor of orgs like AP and others working in the field.

Originally Posted by _chikku

Govt is officially distributing rations only to ration card holders, rest all of them will get from some serving organization or groups. These people will always say government is not helping them.

How are you ensuring your statement holds true? Even if it is so, those people rightly pointed out that Govt is not helping them as it is the orgs and individuals who did the govt's job here.

Originally Posted by yd_gli

Three words: Vote Bank Politics. This is akin to distribution of sarees/rice etc during festival season by the local politicians.

Ideally, this distribution must be run by the home-guards or a another branch of the defense forces. Asking a local MLA/Corporator/local official to do it is just stupid.

On top of that the local MLAs are putting their photos on the food packets served by organizations and shamelessly defending their actions link

[The Rationalist]

The treatment (lockdown) is now becoming more dangerous than the disease (Covid-19) itself. We lose more than 10 lakh to Cigarette, Beedi, Pan, Alcohol, why not ban them outright? That’s not practical for the government as it fill the coffers of the government. Likewise this lock down is impractical and will end up killing more than the virus could have. There’s a saying ‘Don’t end up taking something with a spade which could have been taken up with a pin’. If we haven’t been able to scale up infrastructure and supplies to fight Covid in last 6 weeks, another 6 weeks isn’t going to make any difference.

[Red Liner]

Originally Posted by Samurai

Today I went out get some groceries around 11:30am, I was surprised to see a decent amount of traffic. Even found bunch of traffic police without masks on, loitering around in a group ignoring all the traffic around. It almost looks like lockdown has partially ended and I didn't get a memo.

That’s interesting. So it looks like we can step out for groceries? I have been holding back more out of fear of the local cops than the virus. I still think I will wait it out for the 3rd before venturing out anywhere in the vicinity.

[DigitalOne]

Originally Posted by DigitalOne

The full national lockdown has practically ended. The centre is now defining only the what to reopen, while the states are defining when and where (sub regional) to reopen.

The shift of decision making will continue in the next few weeks.

The only big decisions that the centre has to make is when to start inter-state travel, trains, and flights.

Originally Posted by srini1785

i go out to buy essentials around 5.30 - 6.00PM everyday and basically almost every thing is open. The local kirana shop, bakeries , chips and savories, stationary and even the mobile shops have opened.

As I had written earlier, the national lockdown has ended for all practical purposes. There is not going one big bang national "reopening". Every state will make their own call when and what to reopen in the next couple of weeks. Trains, and Flights are the only things center will decide.

Case in point : Karnataka: relaxations extended to more districts (28-Apr)

[mohansrides]

Originally Posted by DigitalOne

As I had written earlier, the national lockdown has ended for all practical purposes. There is not going one big bang national "reopening". Every state will make their own call when and what to reopen in the next couple of weeks. Trains, and Flights are the only things center will decide.

Case in point : Karnataka: relaxations extended to more districts (28-Apr)

You may be right. At least, I hope that you are right. But, I think the fear is about what's going to happen when the cases spike again, as they undoubtedly will once the lockdown gets lifted. Will be go back to being locked down then? At what point do we take a view that we can dispense with lockdowns as a solution mechanism vis-a-vis this virus? I think that is the question that is bothering everyone.