[Kosfactor]

Good to see that Punjab is taking some steps, I hope others follow and restore some normalcy to the situation.

It is completely possible for construction industry (one of the largest employer in India besides agriculture) to resume with precautions. It's possible for a lot of factories to resume with precautions. Why can't the electrician resume work and fix my fan? Why not let amazon deliver a water purifier or a vacuum cleaner if Zomato is allowed to deliver chicken curry?

Social distancing is possible in all these scenarios, can very well be enforced as well. Every shop currently open in our area follows this, people are patiently waiting in queue. It is possible to sell even Jewellery or mobile phones this way, we just need to learn to do things differently and when given a choice between shutting down your shop of follow safety guidelines, any shop owner would control the number of people entering the shop.



I took this picture a few hours ago. Medical shops are unaffected by all this shutdown and yet they follow the safety guidelines just like the super market, and every one who is walking into any store has to wear a mask, else they won't sell you anything.

[warrioraks]

Originally Posted by volkman10

To put a stop to migrant workers exodus, Punjab allows factories to open.

Very wise and timely decision. This is the only way forward as far as I see. We are in an an unprecedented situation and government is not expected to have complete foresight or have all the answers. But they need to be compassionate and quick to react.

We just cannot have people deciding between starvation OR walking hundreds of kilometres in search of basic necessities.

This virus has brought the best out of this country till now. But if the lockdown continues in the current format, the day is not far where the ugly side of humanity rears it's head. We do not want to be facing that in addition to the threat of this epidemic.

[TRR]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

All,

let this be a thread to share and learn rather than express ourselves sharply towards fellow members none of whom are, I'm sure you agree, responsible for the CV pandemic.

If you believe I have been unduly sharp in my posts, I sincerely apologize for it. My only intention has been to call out posts where misinformation is being spread, not yours, but others.

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

In India, as in other poor countries, the lack of basic medical infrastructure (quantity and quality) outside the top 30 cities means that no matter how well meant our efforts are the concept does not apply to us. We have 0.65 doctors per 1000 vs USA's 2.3 and Italy's 4.3. I hope this helps.

Which called for a lockdown at the earliest, as I'm sure you agree. If not to avoid the unavoidable deaths, but to at least help the medical system attempt to cope up with the eventual surge in patients.

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

What concerns me about attitude were the pronouncements of the Health Minister which could give the impression of not doing his homework well enough.

I am not commenting on this as I am unaware of the pronouncements you are attributing to the Health Minister. Would you please be so kind as to share the specific instances where you believe he was ill-prepared? It would help me see the other side.

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

Now that we have the country locked down even this period is not being used to get things onto a war footing. In the 3 hospitals that I am associated with in 3 states only yesterday, literally, yesterday, 4 days after the lockdown have we received instructions to convert 25% of the beds for Covid-19. Could this have been thought of earlier? Could some fundamentals have been prepared for before the overnight lockdown? Converting two wards for isolation is not so hard. But what about the machines, the pulmonary specialists?? - no answers. We have been told to figure out our plans. Being good citizens we will. But speaking from ground zero I would struggle to give their degree of planning, thought and preparation more than 1 mark out of 10.

Again, I lack some vital information as to which cities/towns these 3 hospitals are situated, so I will refrain from speaking on these hospitals. If you would be so kind as to share a general idea of their location, would provide further insight as to the probable reasons for the late directives.

However, I'd politely disagree with the statement you make in bold above. The respective state governments have made efforts to allocate the necessary beds as and when the positive cases in a particular region began to intensify. Links for better understanding on the same are given here - 1700 bed hospital allocated in Bengaluru (on 22 March 2020 - 4 days before the lockdown); 500 beds across 3 hospitals in Mumbai (apart from the dedicated Covid hospital by Reliance - all at least 3 days before the lockdown); Delhi designates 25 hospitals for Covid on 03 March 2020; A 2,200-bed state-run hospital in Kolkata has stopped admitting new patients who are suffering from other diseases and was discharging patients whose condition had improved as part of efforts to create a dedicated isolation centre. A chain of 32 paramilitary force hospitals across the country, with a total capacity of about 1,900 beds, has been taken over by the government for isolation and treatment of COVID-19 affected patients (this was on or before 25 March, 2020 - the day of the lockdown). Oh and not to forget the Railways contribution to this.

Please note that I have highlighted only the major hotspots because these were the primary places where Covid cases had been detected. It would not make sense for the government to start allocating beds for Covid in places where there were no detected cases, which is why I wouldn't attempt to draw any observation on the government's lack of preparedness from the anecdote you provide. However, if the places you speak of indeed are Covid hotspots, then I stand duly corrected and you may be right, our Government would seem to have erred.

My point here is simply this (which is also why I seem to have shown a bit of rancour in my earlier replies) - statements like "zero preparedness", "less than 1 out of 10 for planning, thought and preparation" lean towards hyperbolism and are out of place on a respected forum like ours

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

The point marked in bold is an understatement. If a Govt indulges in knee jerk actions that cause millions to uproot themselves and try and walk back a few hundred kms to their village homes it is a sad reflection on the political leadership and their disregard for the poor whom they claim to be working for. This is the single largest home grown self created refugee like problem since partition. It is a tragic reflection of lack of any planning and preparation.

Allow me to play the devil's advocate. A week's time (which is what you have asked for below) would have played to no one's benefit. You would know the nightmares of dealing with the logistics of transporting millions of poor from the major cities of the country to their homes. The situation would have been absolutely the same, irrespective of whether we were given one week's announcement. Because when crores of migrants are given one week to travel from a city like Bangalore/Delhi/Mumbai/Kolkata/Chennai to their homes across the length and breadth of this country (with the journey alone taking 3-4 days in a lot of cases) - you cannot avoid what is happening now.

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

There is no earthly reason why the Govt could not have started its prep work on 11th March 2020. There is no reason for the Govt not to have been able to think this through in end-February /early-March for a mid-March lockdown. By not planning for it they have crash landed slap bang into just the crowding, jamming and migration to villages that was to be avoided.

Another statement that can be disproved by looking at the this link from WHO

I'll quote from the situation report for easier readability.

- On 11 March, WHO declared the Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) outbreak as a pandemic (an epidemic that has spread worldwide affecting a large number of people).

- On the same day, per the direction of the Prime Minister of India, a high-level Group of Ministers (GOM) was constituted to review, monitor and evaluate the preparedness and measures taken regarding management of COVID-19 in the country.

- The Prime Minister's Office, Ministry of Health & Family Welfare (MoHFW) and Cabinet Secretary are closely monitoring the situation. All the states and UTs of India have been advised to invoke the provisions under Section 2 of the Epidemic Disease Act 1897

- The government has declared the COVID-19 outbreak in the country a "notified disaster", in a move called "a special one-time dispensation", to provide compensation and aid to infected people and the families of those who died due to the virus. Funds for this and other measures will be drawn from the Disaster Response Funds of each state.

A humble request to you and other forum members, please do take some time out from your schedule and go through the WHO's various situation reports. Will give you some perspective as to India's responses so far.

And with the most genuine apologies, I'd rather take WHO's word for this than anecdotal evidence.

Another excerpt from another WHO situation report, issued on the 28th March 2020 - if you still believe the government is not acting during this lockdown time:

- MoHFW with support of WHO conducted orientation on COVID-19 preparedness, response and containment for officials in all states and UTs. The same has been conducted in 723 out of 755 (96%) districts across India.
- A nationwide training of frontline health workers on COVID-19 was launched by MoHFW and partners through a virtually conducted training of trainers for 546 participants of 37 states and union territories on 27 March.

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

This is a public forum. All of us are well read. Some of us are from this field. May I request you not waste your sarcasm.

If I came across as sarcastic, you have my deepest apologies. That was never my intention (one of the few limitations of expressing yourself on a written platform, I guess). I genuinely wanted (still do) to know what you realistically thought would happen if we had a week's time. I'm sorry but a meagre week's time would have changed nothing. See above - crores of migrants + the few routes home = unbridled chaos, whether you give them no time or a week.

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

The comparison with DeMo was to emphasize the trend of making big bang announcements with zero homework. Same happened with GST and now CV.

I believe I have shown you ample evidence of at least 'some' homework. So my point still holds, this is not comparable to DeMo. Just because he made an 8PM announcement, does not mean we imply everything will be as disastrous as DeMo. For the record, I am a strong critic of that farcical exercise known as DeMo and still believe that it was the biggest economic disaster in recent times.

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

75 districts were on a partial lockdown out of about 700 districts. There is a hell of a lot more to prepare for a lockdown of 3 weeks than stocking up rations at home. Ask those who run factories, companies, manage employees, have payments in transit, need to fulfill export orders, employees and old relatives in transit, engineers on field visits, shutting down heavy machinery & boilers safely .....I could go on.

These 75 districts were under complete lockdown, just FYI. But other than that, you speak fairly of the issues that people have. But I'd argue that there is no easy way to prepare for a lockdown. A weak argument, I realize, but this is a Black Swan event. Something none of us foresaw (no hindsight does not count). Other countries have paid the price. An extension would have extracted a much heavier price from India. But yes, I still concede that you make some fair points here which the government should have taken into account (maybe minor relaxations).

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

I think my post was clear that I accept the lock down. We left it so late that no other alternative was feasible. The manner of a lockdown with zero preparation by the Govt is what I am talking of in my last post.

Again, I have nothing more to say with regard to zero preparation after all I've pointed out above. Any stricter measures that you believe should have been implemented are, as you say, beliefs on the crutches of hindsight.

The below is not for Narayan sir, but to those saying economic preservation is more important than the thousands of lives that we might lose:

I find it ironic that you advocate for the death of millions (because that is what the estimates say, if there were no measures taken) by saying save the economy and let Coronavirus take its course, but now suddenly find it reprehensible that the government would let people suffer now while going home. Let me be clear, I do not advocate for either. But who let you decide that dying from Covid is easier than dying later in the aftermath? All the math proves that the deaths and economic downturn from an unchecked disease spread would be much higher than that from where no efforts were undertaken at all. A study on the same here, by well-accredited authors too. You can discredit the same by saying it's just a simulation/empirical study. But then, you have NO evidence to prove your claims that the economy would have been saved if we had taken milder steps.

Comparisons to South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan would most definitely look unfavourable to India, just like comparing a Maruti Brezza to a BMW X5. The resources they have, the disciplined population they have, the incredibly efficient bureaucracy and workforce that they have, India stands no way at looking better off in any aspect whatsover. I concede this wholeheartedly. Measures like social distancing at public places, wearing masks, wash hands frequently, might work in uber-urban India, but not with a majority of the poor and downtrodden.

Instead, I give you a new exercise. A nation whose President is of the same views as you lot. Not the US, but Brazil. A much more comparable scenario with India, you have to admit. I request you to please monitor Brazil's case with India's side-by-side. This, fascinatingly, looks to represent a real-life science experiment on the lives of billions, with India being the implementer of aggressive measures and Brazil being the control experiment of minimal measures (voluntary social distancing, isolation of only the aged population). No need to make 'ifs', 'buts' or 'what abouts', no hypothetical scenarios involved, just real life results. (A disclaimer: I am unable to determine Brazil's testing numbers, this would better help put things into context in a comparison with India)

I have no idea what will happen over the next few days, but I do believe this will be my last post in this regard. If you think I'm wrong/I have offended you, I genuinely do apologize for my views. I hope we all come out of this smarter, more tolerant and more grateful for the things we have.

[Ithaca]

Social Distancing & Lockdown should have been a golden opportunity for digital payment apps like GPay, Phone Pe & PayTm to encourage people to go digital by having massive advertising campaigns.
Most banks have asked its customers to go the cashless way but I don't remember seeing these payment apps doing the same.

There are a few videos online asking folks to clean their hands after touching currency and in such a scenario, it would make lot of sense for us to only use these apps to make payments. Only problem is that except bigger stores, not many smaller guys still want to change over to digital payments.

At least in my case, since the time of demonitization, we have come to an understanding with our local kirana store and we pay him monthly in cash - thereby minimising our exchange of money with him for each purchase.

[Turbanator]

Originally Posted by TRR

but to at least help the medical system attempt to cope up with the eventual surge in patients

TRR, you surely have a great mind for a 20-year-old kid/ teen, and I hope you prepare for civil services someday and get a role to play in the administration

Please tell us, how are we going to build up capacities at the hospitals? And what do we the existing patients suffering from other ailments? I am so afraid of going to any hospitals just because of the crowds these get in usual days. People can delay their current complications but for how long? Don’t you think, many of these patients can turn serious due to lack of medical counselling?

Yes, the Government has asked many private hospitals, and also some of the government hospitals have got isolation wards. Still, when I see a list of approved places for testing, most of these hospitals even don’t figure on those lists. Do you think any hospital can handle a patient without even a test kit? Things might have changed in the immediate past week though for good.

zero preparedness", "less than 1 out of 10 for planning, thought and preparation

It looks most of we guys failed to notice the preparations, can you kindly list few that helps a common man.

A week's time (which is what you have asked for below) would have played to no one's benefit.

Honestly, I don’t know if it was right or wrong. I came back to Chandigarh on Saturday night, and Punjab & Chandigarh implemented the curfew immediately after junta curfew. So we guys never got a chance even for few hours to plan for future lockdown. We are still under curfew, but most things are being made available right at our doorstep. Perhaps, this should have been the case across India, maybe they should have continued the Janta curfew for a week to begin with instead of 3 weeks at a go. People got an idea where this is heading and started moving.

You would know the nightmares of dealing with the logistics of transporting millions of poor from the major cities of the country to their homes.

Exactly, nothing will change, so this should have weighed before implementing for three weeks. I appreciate that Government has given the pill in one go, but things would have been very different had they gone in a phased manner, say one week, to begin with, and later extending by another ( I may go wrong if the Government has other plans and this 3 week is just a starter)

I genuinely wanted (still do) to know what you realistically thought would happen if we had a week's time

That’s what we want to know, what will happen after three weeks of lockdown? Can we go back to normal or be prepared for more?

you advocate for the death of millions (because that is what the estimates say

Currently, there are around 7 lac known cases with about 30 k deaths worldwide. They are ranging from as low as 1% in Canada to 10% in Italy. I am not sure from where are this millions coming from unless you are talking about some super specialists PPT creators. And No, I am not interested in seeing their CV or Research papers.

if there were no measures taken) by saying save the economy and let Coronavirus take its course

No one is saying not to do anything. With railways stopped and state borders sealed, we should have gone step by step. Now we have created even more problems at least for the common man who are in Crores.

Hope, the Government is not thinking of extending this further and on the contrary, they should try to start industry in places where there are no cases and maintain safety measures. The same guys who we see sitting or sleeping next to in crowded areas can do far better if they have food in their tummy and a roof over the head.

[The Rationalist]

Guys, this lockdown will only buy time, it’s not gonna stop COVID-19 infections. As none of us has immunity to the novel Corona virus strain causing Covid, the virus will strike back. So a prolonged lock down will eventually result in a civil war kind of situation. The sensible way out is enforcing social distancing and trying to educate people continuously. By doing so we hope to get the infection in smaller numbers and once about 60% or more get infected, herd immunity may work.

The disturbing fact is we are woefully short in testing people. In Kerala, the place where highest number of cases is reported, the people tested is 200 per million, the next one is Maharashtra 31 per million, while Bihar 1 per million. There lies the reason why we have less reported cases. I hope the government increase testing on war footage, if else disaster awaits.

[V.Narayan]

Originally Posted by Turbanator

Some of the efforts by Gurdwara committee in Delhi. Truly commendable.

Credits to the original unknown guy who made this Whatsapp video.

Thank you for sharing. God bless the Sikhs. What social distancing can be implemented here or at the Delhi-UP border? A hungry stomach knows no rules. Some of us, sitting in our apartments with running water and groceries stocked are defending a lockdown imposed with zero preparation, notice or thought. Govt's are paid through our taxes to think these matters through.

[mvadg]

Originally Posted by TRR

...but to those saying economic preservation is more important than the thousands of lives that we might lose:

1. ...but now suddenly find it reprehensible that the government would let people suffer now while going home.
2. All the math proves that the deaths and economic downturn from an unchecked disease spread would be much higher than that from where no efforts were undertaken at all.
3. A study on the same here, ... you have NO evidence to prove your claims that the economy would have been saved if we had taken milder steps.
4. same views as you lot. Not the US, but Brazil.

Sir, I cannot match your thorough analyses with citations, nor the clear explanations with supporting facts by Narayan sir (I'm sure, you are in the category of civil servants I respect greatly, even though I disagree with you ). I am not sure of the study and the Brazil situation. I have to admit, I never saw the mass migrations coming. There is, however, no change in my attitude - causing the least pain for everyone, which I'm sure is the same as yours and all the others commenting here.

Here is what I base my views on in support of completely doing away with the lockdown:

1. Easy. We don't have to do anything, just do our best to educate people on social distancing (effectiveness zero, as we can see how people are behaving)
2. Continuing business as usual - gives people a sense of self determination
3. If doctors are working with Covid19 patients, no reason why we can't -lets think of ourselves as soldiers fighing for the economy in a very loose sense
4. Lockdown will not help the majority, it is not a cure, only a delay
5. Delay in spread will improve medical care only for the privileged few (flattening the curve). I don't understand your optimism for the general public- how is it going to help the rest with zero access to medical care and zero money - the number of deaths are unlikely to change significantly until a cheap vaccine is available for all.
   
6. We may have to wait for 2 years for a vaccine that will be generally available (Professor Kim Woo-joo from Korea University Guro Hospital, says 12 years for a fully tested vaccine, shorter periods predicted by others are under ideal conditions)
7. It is inevitable that all of us will be exposed to the virus sooner or later. It is unlikely that all of us can wait out the 18 to 24 months required for a vaccine, and that too with 100% lockdown and zero virus contact.
8. No, I don't know whether dying from the Covid19 is easier or dying from some other disease or starving to death is going to be easier, but I'd rather keep my job and earnings and live ignoring the Covid19 as there is really not much I can do about avoiding Covid19, especially if my life depends on continuing working as usual and not starving to death
9. About the study, not sure of the assumptions , not sure it applies to India not even sure why it paints such a positive picture of a better economy after a lockdown - should we do this irrespective of any disease like some of the commenters to the article have said? We could do a lockdown every year for a month and the economy will improve? I find that hard to believe.
10. Not well enough informed about Brazil to even make a comment - lets wait and see
11. I am not sure I understand how the economy will collapse or the consequences will be any better if we don't do the lockdown - I assume there will be a huge number of deaths, but these are going to happen irrespective of the lockdown - especially a loose lockdown like we have
12. Lockdown - sure failure of the economy. No lockdown - no idea about what will happen, most likely a better situation than a complete failure

I am sure the government is doing it's best. Stage 1 clampdown was the only possible solution, but that is now in the past. I believe without a lockdown we would do better overall, even considering loss of lives, and the economy. I could be wrong.

[samaspire]

Originally Posted by TRR

The respective state governments have made efforts to allocate the necessary beds as and when the positive cases in a particular region began to intensify. Links for better understanding on the same are given here -

Agree that the government has made all efforts to ensure that every hospital has atleast a few beds alloted for covid 19 patients. But, they are not able to provide them protective equipment like proper masks and PPE. A TOI report says that it will take 25 days for the same!!!
http://toi.in/OYgUMb/a31gj

Another news from Bihar talks of an ultimatum given to doctors to work without protective gear or face action.

Originally Posted by Turbanator

Please tell us, how are we going to build up capacities at the hospitals? And what do we the existing patients suffering from other ailments?

Still, when I see a list of approved places for testing, most of these hospitals even don’t figure on those lists. Do you think any hospital can handle a patient without even a test kit? Things might have changed in the immediate past week though for good.

A major afteraffect of this crisis is that hospitals are running out of blood - no one is donating blood anymore. How this effects critical patients is anybody's guess.

[wheelguy]

An MLA from Karnataka state comes out with his grandson to play on the open & traffic free roads. I wonder where are the back whacking police now.

https://twitter.com/nkaggere/status/...800486400?s=20


Request moderators to remove the post if it doesn't belong here.

[JithinR]

Originally Posted by wheelguy

An MLA from Karnataka state comes out with his grandson to play on the open & traffic free roads. I wonder where are the back whacking police now.

All are equal in the eyes of the law, some are more equal than others.

[warrioraks]

Originally Posted by samaspire

But, they are not able to provide them protective equipment like proper masks and PPE. A TOI report says that it will take 25 days for the same!!!
http://toi.in/OYgUMb/a31gj

Another news from Bihar talks of an ultimatum given to doctors to work without protective gear or face action.

I read this item in the newspaper today and it was so disheartening. Did some google search and it seems China is producing a billion masks every week. Not sure how much India is able to manufacture but a combination of desi produce + import should be more than enough to support the medical staff in the country.
Our elite country men have been talking of making thousands of ventilators a month and here we are, unable to provide good quality masks to the people on the frontline.

My heart truly goes out to people who are braving all this without adequate protection. And I deeply deeply hope that what this news highlighted was just an exception rather than the norm.

[Turbanator]

Originally Posted by samaspire

A major afteraffect of this crisis is that hospitals are running out of blood - no one is donating blood anymore. How this effects critical patients is anybody's guess.

There are certain new guidelines that were to be notified due to this Virus, this was as per a known who called a Bank to denote the blood. Don't know if it was some local initiative or from the central level and whether they have been notified or not.

[Nalin1]

Originally Posted by mvadg

[*]I am not sure I understand how the economy will collapse or the consequences will be any better if we don't do the lockdown - I assume there will be a huge number of deaths, but these are going to happen irrespective of the lockdown - especially a loose lockdown like we have[*]Lockdown - sure failure of the economy. No lockdown - no idea about what will happen, most likely a better situation than a complete failure[/list]I am sure the government is doing it's best. Stage 1 clampdown was the only possible solution, but that is now in the past. I believe without a lockdown we would do better overall, even considering loss of lives, and the economy. I could be wrong.

You are not wrong. You are 100% right!.

A restricted functioning is what we need. Not zero functioning. I have listed some solutions that came to my mind in my other post.

And please let us not even get into the essentials and non-essential part. Roti, kapda aur Makhaan are not the only essentials for a human to survive.

Just to give an example. Let us take a multiplex screening four shows a day. In this current scenario, we tend to think it is a non-essential activity. But there are 100 people who depend on it for livelihood and will come to the streets if their business does not resume. Restricted functioning will ensure that maybe there are two shows instead of 4 with only half of the capacity filled. That will keep the stakeholders going instead of a grinding halt to their business and livelihood. They might still crib about their reduced earnings, but we have no choice but to bear it to fight the invisible enemy.

A complete halt to everything? Forget the virus. A million other problems will erupt/have already erupted.

[m8002?]

The photos in this article reminds me of the partition scenes in Gandhi movie.

https://www.rediff.com/news/report/p...9/20200329.htm

And there are elected representatives who want to shoot at sight against these people since they are coming out of quarantine.
https://www.rediff.com/news/column/t...d/20200329.htm