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Old 7th April 2020, 19:51   #526
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Default Re: India on full lockdown till 14th April, 2020

The effectiveness of the lockdown in containing the spread of virus has been quantified by an ICMR study, says the Ministry of Health, Government of India.

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...the study indicated that 1 COVID-19 patient can infect 406 people in 30 days if he/she doesn't follow lockdown. In medical terms- this phenomenon is known as R-naught- or R0, a virusís basic reproductive number ó an epidemiologic metric used to describe the contagiousness of infectious agents.

With preventive measures in place, the possibility of the infection can be reduced to an average of just two-and-a-half persons per patient in the same period
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Old 7th April 2020, 20:12   #527
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Default Re: India on full lockdown till 14th April, 2020

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Originally Posted by civic-sense View Post
... The men in suits who professes to us on TV about this being just another flu, is not worried about you, but only their businesses. They know they would be safe in their palatial mansions even if there is no lockdown.
This kind of misplaced thinking is really what is driving the debate - that somehow advocating for the economy means advocating for self-interest and money. To be clear, it is not money vs. lives here, it is lives vs. lives. See this.

https://www.newindianexpress.com/sta...n-2124948.html

And this...

https://www.telegraphindia.com/india...es/cid/1760595


As per Time of India, Covid fatalities are 124 today, April 7th, 2020. One of the above articles is dated March 30th, and even by that time 17 people had died due to fatigue or starvation. Now, a week later, who knows how many have succumbed? While the authorities are religiously tracking Covid fatalities, there is very little official record of deaths resulting from an economic shutdown.

So, please don't mark those advocating for opening the economy as elitists who are only interested in their wealth portfolios. That is not the case.

Bottom line - shutting down the economy is costing us real lives. Some of those losses are visible immediately, while others will only be visible over time, and some losses of life will remain invisible in the public record forever.

More importantly, we will set back all advances we have collectively made in pulling people above the poverty line. In large swathes, the purchasing power of generations will get affected as fundamental changes are made in the economy.

When presented with these sad deaths of our poor countrymen, people will point to the government's recent steps to provide a basis subsistence income to this strata of the economy. Good. Great. But, where is that money going to come from? Without a functioning economy, there aren't any earnings, and so there isn't a tax base to speak of. So, how are we going to come up with the cash to put millions of our people under welfare schemes? And what about the thousands, or hundreds of thousands of the middle class who will potentially become unemployed, but won't technically qualify for any subsidies? What about them?


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Originally Posted by BaCkSeAtDrIVeR View Post
Countries which said that containment is enough and the economy should not be sacrificed have sacrificed lives and their economy is dead...
As mentioned by other on this thread, there is no hard data available as to which tactic has worked. Your statement that some countries' economies are dead, appears to be based on anecdotal evidence alone. If you have hard numbers as to which country's economy is shattered beyond redemption because they have not locked down, please share.


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Originally Posted by aadya View Post
I request all those people with this viewpoint the volunteer for the Indian government/State government COVID-19 duty. Though practical reason not permitting, it would be nice to see them manning an emergency department reception at-least.
I am sorry sir. But, what really is your point? That unless someone is willing to do the work, then one should not ask questions? With that kind of thinking, then we won't have a right to question anything !!!

Incidentally, do you say that to your boss? Meaning, do you tell him or her, "..if you don't agree with my output, please volunteer to do the work yourself"? Or can we accept that line from any of our elected leaders when they talk to journalists? Meaning, if they say to a reporter, "..if you don't agree with the decision, please sit on this seat and see how difficult it is", should we accept that and move on?

Fact is that the journalist is just doing his job, just as the administrator is doing his.

Of course the job is hard. That is the whole point of big and important jobs. But, no one forced anyone to become an administrator or a politician. People who work in these professions chose their vocation willingly. So, questioning any decision will and should always happen in a free society. That does not mean that those who raise questions are disloyal.

For the record, I have not gone out to even buy milk since March 25th. I am obeying this lockdown to the letter. Also, I participated in the PM's call to demonstrate solidarity on 22nd March and on 5th April.

But, that aside, we should all think about what this lockdown is costing us. It would be irresponsible not to.


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Originally Posted by wheelguy View Post
There are high chances that lockdown can be extended. And I wish it must be extended..
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Originally Posted by ValarMorghulis View Post
...The right time for removing the lock down should be a week of continuous dwindling new cases. And as and when that happens, the lock down should be released in phases (in 3-4 weeks) with the current quarantine areas still under monitoring.
Money can be earned back, lost lives won't be.
I apologize if this comes across as rude or as condescending, because that certainly is not my intention. But, really people who are glibly talking about extending this lockdown indefinitely need to get a grip on reality.

Just because you have money now and are sitting in the comfort of your home does not make you immune to economic pain. Thinking along such lines would be hugely unwise. Everyone is just a few degrees of separation away from that migrant labourer making that hellish trek home under the baking sun.

Just 2 weeks into this lockdown and the economy is getting thrashed by all sorts of shock waves. So, you receiving a pay check is just today's reality. There is no telling what will happen to your job, or to your business, or to your pension tomorrow. Most importantly, that tomorrow isn't some horizon far far away; it could be as close as the next month or the next quarter. Think hard about that.

So, please stop mouthing platitudes without thinking about how a family, whether that family is yours or any one else's, will survive if some or all of their economic power is obliterated by the time this lockdown is lifted.


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Originally Posted by m8002? View Post
..Many of us in IT are relatively well off with WFH and full pay. Many have even given fully paid leave for domestic helps. But there is a much larger India out there without work and cash flow to keep the business running...
People in IT are not a world unto themselves. When both supply and demand disappears in regular economy, IT is bound to get hit big time because all the customers are in the regular economy.

Remember this. If people at your workplace - be it your boss or your management or your customer - are literally not being driven crazy by your absence and are therefore looking for every loophole to get you to come work, then you should be very worried. In fact, you should be worried regardless. Because once this lockdown is lifted, companies are going to look for every which way to optimise costs and that's when we will all find out where we stand. Even if you keep your job, it is highly likely that you will have to work for a lot less. Apna Prime Minister ka pagaar kat gaya tho hum kyaa cheez hain?


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Originally Posted by carboy View Post
If downfall happens, it doesn't mean virus has got bored and gone away. As soon as you lift the lockdown, it will start again & you will again see quick rise....
Absolutely correct. There is no guarantee that a lockdown will solve everything 100%. If the virus can survive for days on surfaces and on fecal matter, then it is just a matter of time before we see a reemergence. What will do then?

Last edited by mohansrides : 7th April 2020 at 20:35.
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Old 7th April 2020, 21:07   #528
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Default Re: India on full lockdown till 14th April, 2020

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Originally Posted by mohansrides View Post
I apologize if this comes across as rude or as condescending, because that certainly is not my intention. But, really people who are glibly talking about extending this lockdown indefinitely need to get a grip on reality.

Just because you have money now and are sitting in the comfort of your home does not make you immune to economic pain. Thinking along such lines would be hugely unwise. Everyone is just a few degrees of separation away from that migrant labourer making that hellish trek to home under the baking sun.

Just 2 weeks into this lockdown and the economy is getting thrashed by all sorts of shock waves. So, you receiving a pay check is just today's reality. There is no telling what will happen to your job, or to your business, or to your pension tomorrow. Most importantly, that tomorrow isn't some horizon far far away; it could be as close as the next month or the next quarter. Think hard about that.

So, please stop mouthing platitudes without thinking about how a family, whether that family is yours or any one else's, will survive if some or all of their economic power is obliterated by the time this lockdown is lifted.
Heavy words there, neither do I have any intentions against any class of people. It's just that I fear it might become uncontrollable if the lockdown was lifted without getting a grip on the pandemic. Migrant laborers or anyone else including you and me, first we need to live to do anything in the future. Neither I am writing away the economic pain nor I am disregarding it. Adequate measures should be taken to look after everyone who is in need while continuing the lockdown is what I am saying.

Sure there are a multitude of things to be considered, everyone adds one perspective/view to the issue at hand, why come down heavy on one who had a different thought than yours instead of simply saying/adding your thoughts. Lastly, reality is not absolute.

Last edited by wheelguy : 7th April 2020 at 21:23.
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