[v1p3r]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

Normally they say old men get pessimistic about the 'good old days'. But at least on Team BHP, on matters of economics, I find the young members pessimistic about the country, its economy and the their future. It is almost fashionable to gripe. At 60 I assume 99.999% of members of Team BHP are younger.

I am not sure if I qualify as 'young' but I certainly fall under those pessimistic about our economy. Our future itself is a collection of each individual's future. As a country, we are hardworking, enthusiastic, and (generally) a decent people. Our trajectories of individual success on the world stage speak to our achievements. And yes, a large part of that is due to our systems - English education, focus on competition, emphasis on science and numbers, etc.

I agree with your post in its entirety. The India story was expected to fail in a couple of decades. From that oft-revered genocidal maniac Churchill, right up to Nixon, everyone thought we were done for. We had leaders with foresight and some level of luck, which helped us get to where we are. Our massive internal market has helped, as have our English language and mathematical skills.

Singularly, I have a grouse with governmental mismanagement over the last 10 years. This is the sole shackle that holds us back from becoming that much abused word - superpower. Please allow a quick example - the organisation I work with created a product that is quite unique and proprietary. It helps, among other things, large scale public health. We offered it for free to one of the most 'progressive' governments in India, one focused on the common man. Their representative was a slick foreign-returned expert. Despite four attempt to follow up, they never got back to us. Remember, this was a free offering. Now we have US, ME, and EU administrators asking us to incorporate in their country, avail tax benefits, and they will buy our product at full price. US investors are amazed that our product even exists with such a small dev team, which goes to show how good and dedicated Indian talent is.

I am just one person with a few experiences, but this sort of story is repeated often amongst many such folks. You have yourself pointed out the issues with being in an SEZ. Is it fair to expect the next generation to hold on to unbridled optimism that things may change tomorrow, when we have seen how capable we are compared to the world today?

[Theyota]

We won't be able to draw foreign manufacturers to invest in India if we just sit and hope that many would like to move out of China after this pandemic and they will automatically come to India. If that was the case "Make in India" campaign would not have been the failure it has been. As far as I know, the only manufacturing that "Make in India" has brought to India is some very low tech cell phone assembly plants. It happened because of 1.3 billion market for lower price segment phones and increase of duties on imports of the same. It did not happen because India is conducive for manufacturing. It reduced outgo of some foreign exchange by a small amount, but it is not earning us the new foreign exchange we need. It did not even earn any manufacturing technology for us. As of today most components that need somewhat higher tech are still sourced from China and other smaller neighbors of China.

40 years back China started small and built small clusters of Special Economic Zones (E.g. Shenzhen) with very reliable infrastructure for energy, roads and ports, etc. These small clusters were the roots for what China is today. The rest of the country was no different from India. China's current infrastructure is a few decades ahead of India. So there is no point in playing catch up with them because we do not have the means to do that with our ever growing population, limited land, inefficient and corrupt system and what not. But we can afford to build small clusters of really excellent infrastructure with dedicated government agencies whose sole job should be to enable industries. There must be at least one such cluster for every 4-5 districts. They are already existing at least on paper in the Southern and Western states of India. But as of today there is hardly anyone among them that has a proper stretch of 500 meter pothole free road, forget incentives, water, energy, ports, highways, supplier base, etc. Few such clusters drawing the current manufacturing giants from around the world will give birth to millions of local entrepreneurs and technology within a decade. With time, India will find it's own model of efficient infrastructure and way of living for the overall country as a whole. .

The few manufacturers in India who are currently successful are successful in spite of support in India and not because of support by India. Chinese costs are low, not because of low cost of labor, but because of their efficiencies due to scale, support systems, interest rates, low red tape, etc. China currently has a lot of very high tech Chinese owned industries and not just the multinationals. Chinese bureaucracy is highly ambitious in wanting their country to progress. Their growth in career depends on the success of the towns, cities, provinces they lead. There is no communism of the kind we know when it comes to running a business anymore. I don't think that the text book communism exists anymore even in the administration of the country. It has basically evolved into a culture of doing whatever it takes to become materially successful.

I have a done a multi year stint in a manufacturing giant in China in the past and have just returned here a few weeks back for another stint after a few years in Europe. As most of you know, entry of foreigners is blocked in China currently due to pandemic containment measures. But our company could make a business case with the regional government to get me in though the blockade. The regional government coordinated with the Chinese embassy in the country I was located very efficiently. I am giving this as an example of how supportive and decisive the government at all levels are. I am no CEO or CFO (yet ). In India, we wouldn't even know who to contact in such cases.

I think our current Indian government is ambitious and has the will. But they lack the skilled people in the top circles. I can hardly name a single finance, economics or a commerce expert in the whole team. They have run away all the ones who did not cheer lead them in all their trials and errors. So the ones that are left are the "yes sirs" and cheerleader types. They should learn to accept criticism, different line of thoughts from genuine critics and use them for their skills. The government also needs to pick and stick to priorities and stop diverting from non core issues. Development (human and material) should be the one and only agenda.

[theMandarin]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

Normally they say old men get pessimistic about the 'good old days'. But at least on Team BHP, on matters of economics, I find the young members pessimistic about the country, its economy and the their future.

When I first started to look for a job 38 years ago..

I think an individuals' frame of reference is an essential element in shaping perspectives.

I'd go out on a limb and say that most people start taking an active interest in such topics when they are about to finish college because that is when they are bound to experience the effects of any economic policies first hand. Assuming a median age of 35 years, most people here would have been part of the workforce for 10 years and must've been observant of policies/practices for the same amount of time.

Now if you look at the trajectory of where things are going, whether you talk about political climate, economic activity or even basic freedom of expression, some may argue that things seem to have taken a not so positive turn which stands to reason, is what may be driving a pessimistic outlook for the future.

Sadly every new step seems to be another hit on the nail, further entrenching this train of thought but it also depends on which side of the river you're standing.

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

Coming to China. What China has achieved in terms of economic growth is a once in 5000 year achievement. In th elast 5000 years history has not seen anything like it. We are whistling in the wind trying to forever compare ourselves. Better to compare ourselves with what we were last year and make an incremental improvement this year and keep going step by step.

That is the only realistic measure of progress but few people share that opinion.

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

We don't have the same style of Government, or the vision or the people. Let's talk about people, you and me, people like us. For example, firstly, this conversation on social media could not happen in China. Secondly we have just expressed our anguish over the plight of lakhs of labourers walking home. In China they raze entire slum areas housing lakhs and forcefully shift them away without a whimper, without it making th enews and without you & me daring to express ourselves.

In India, we the upper classes may condemn those faceless bureaucrats for holding our country behind compared to China. But are we, the upper classes, willing to live without our freedoms, our fundamental rights, our decision to not adopt Aarogya Setu {PS: I am not in favour of it}? Are you willing to head a factory manned by villagers who work on terms only slightly better than bonded labour?

Some of the examples you mentioned show that we're heading in the same direction. A China like growth story, even if possible, will come at a cost and is likely to be a zero sum game.

The India growth story so far is similar to a perpetual motion machine, wherein the authorities'(throughout) short sighted goals can be equated to the lack of an energy source. Whatever we have achieved is likely because of an individualistic drive to improve our own life and this is unlikely to change.

We should be hopeful with realistic expectations. A country is not a startup.

[nasa_hubble]

Originally Posted by Nissan1180

In any case, labor accounts for less than 5% of the expenses of a well run company. No good company would stop investing because of "complicated" labor laws.

Labour costs in businesses can be as high as 70% of the total. It varies on the type of Business but saying labour cost is just 5% in a well run company is wrong.

If the government was so serious about self reliance, they could empower PSUs like BHEL etc to explore making silicon for circuits in India. Correct me if I am wrong, but electronics is the biggest non-defense import after oil. The government should impose a surcharge on Chinese brands selling in India and give a tax break to the fledgling Indian brands.

Electronic is the third largest non-defense import into India after Oil and Gems not the second largest as you said. India should be self reliant in this segment too, I agree. We are working on it.

Let us discuss about Self-Reliance.

To become self reliant we need to develop an ecosystem which requires effort, money and patience. All of it is being done.

Automobiles. Suffice to say we are self reliant.

IIT-Madras developed an Indian Microprocessor 'Shakti' and it was manufactured at the semi-conductor lab of ISRO in Chandigarh. ARM, Intel, etc. have their design centers in India.

Earlier most cellphones were imported. There were just 2 mobile manufacturing units in India in 2014. Last year in 2019 there were 268 companies manufacturing the cellphones and various accessories in India. Samsung, Apple have setup major units in India. Samsung in Noida. Apple in Chennai. Xiaomi in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. Now 95% mobiles sold here are "Made In India".

India is a pharma giant ranking third in the supply of the worlds generic drug manufacturing. India has a 62% market share in Vaccine manufacturing in the world market.

Indian IT companies have a 56% market share in the world.

India is the second largest Textile exporter in the World.

Infrastructure is being massively improved upon. 2 Dedicated freight corridors with a total length of 3322 Kms, Expressways of 1622 Kms are operational and a whopping 8111 kms of expressways are under construction in the country.

Bullet Trains and High-Speed Trains are coming up. Railways are being expanded to new areas and lines are being doubled in existing ones. North East India railways have been extended upto Manipur. Kashmir is being connected via Rail to Jammu by the World's highest bridge. Many greenfield airports are being built and older ones are being expanded.

We are the third largest producer and consumer of electricity with an installed capacity of more than 370 GW. We are aggressively expanding our green electricity production also including Solar, Hydro and Wind.

We are slowly becoming self reliant in defense production also. Slowly but steadily it is happening. We have already ordered HAL LCA Tejas MK1 in 40 nos. One squadron is up and running. We will be ordering the 83 HAL LCA Tejas MK1A in near future. The Naval Tejas just recently underwent Carrier based trials and performed exceptionally.

The Indian Heptr HAL Dhruv is being inducted in large numbers. We are manufacturing and exporting Bullet Proof jackets to other countries. Our ATAGS howitzer is under trials. MBT Arjun is being improved. DRDO AEW&CS Netra is being said to have performed well during the Balakot strkes. AESA radar is being developed. Fighter jet Missiles and Air Defense missiles are being successfully developed and inducted.

Indian Nuclear Submarine INS Arihant is already on patrol as per reports. The 2nd and 3rd ship is also under development. Locally built French Scorpene Subs are also being inducted with ToT.

We need to work harder on Jet Engine tech and other cutting edge technologies but things are moving forward.

1st phase of the Indian Ballistic Missile defense program has been completed.

ISRO is considered among the world's leading space agencies and one of the most cost effective.

Self-reliance during COVID. The throat swab that are used to take samples of suspected COVID patients were imported from China for Rs.17 a pop. We have locally produced one for Rs.2 only. In just two months we have become self reliant in world class PPE and are having a huge manufacturing capacity for the same. We are accelerating manufacture of Indian ventilators.

The farm reforms have broken the shackles for the farmers and will now lead to massive technology upgrade in farming techniques and equipment.

All this has not happened in the stint of one government so please don't take it politically. We have come a long way since 1947 and have a much longer way to go, but just looking at the one side of a coin serves no purpose.

I am very bullish (Stock Market Jargon) on India. There is no reason to believe that India will not come out stronger. We can provide everything that enterprising companies want including a huge local market.

[Sutripta]

Originally Posted by theMandarin

A country is not a startup.

Seek permission to add this to my repertoire, but to use it differently. Most startups fail.

Sutripta

[ashokrajagopal]

Originally Posted by nasa_hubble

IIT-Madras developed an Indian Microprocessor 'Shakti' and it was manufactured at the semi-conductor lab of ISRO in Chandigarh. ARM, Intel, etc. have their design centers in India.

Earlier most cellphones were imported. There were just 2 mobile manufacturing units in India in 2014. Last year in 2019 there were 268 companies manufacturing the cellphones and various accessories in India. Samsung, Apple have setup major units in India. Samsung in Noida. Apple in Chennai. Xiaomi in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. Now 95% mobiles sold here are "Made In India".

India is a pharma giant ranking third in the supply of the worlds generic drug manufacturing. India has a 62% market share in Vaccine manufacturing in the world market.

Indian IT companies have a 56% market share in the world.

Wow ! Isn't that an entirely different take on self reliant. Who owns the IP for this stuff ?

[dragracer567]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

Normally they say old men get pessimistic about the 'good old days'. But at least on Team BHP, on matters of economics, I find the young members pessimistic about the country, its economy and the their future. It is almost fashionable to gripe. At 60 I assume 99.999% of members of Team BHP are younger. Allow me to share my perspective. Each can draw his/her own conclusions.

Offcourse sir, what you say is completely true, India has indeed come a long way. The pessimism isn't about the fact that India's growth story is stalling but it's rather about the fact that these bold predictions of India taking on China isn't happening anytime soon. India is never gonna be China but most Indians would obviously prefer to stay in a democratic society like ours. India's rise will be much more organic compared to the astronomical growth of China which gave little time for the world to adapt.

Also, regarding your comparison with Mexico, Brazil, Indonesia, Russia and South Africa, our GDP per capita today is still lower than all these countries and it will be atleast 5 years before we can catch up with the current GDP per capita of Indonesia (the lowest in your list) assuming we have a steady growth rate of 7% (unlikely now). The other countries have much higher GDP per capitas which will take atleast 2-3 decades to match or surpass.

[v1p3r]

Originally Posted by Sutripta

Seek permission to add this to my repertoire, but to use it differently. Most startups fail.

Sutripta

In the long run, so do most countries. But then again in the long run, we are all dead.

It's actually something Barack Obama said. https://techcrunch.com/2016/10/17/pr...ike-a-startup/

[mxx]

Originally Posted by Tucker48

Amazon is facing a lawsuit in USA to the level that it might even be disintegrated just like standard oil approximately a century ago.
What Amazon/Flipkart did was crony capitalism at its best.
Being a marketplace means a facilitator between buyers and sellers.
How is a marketplace fair when it sells its own products on its platform that too copying the best selling products of other retailers on their platform and promoting their own products over theirs. Big brands will not feel any effect but small brands will die for sure.
We don't need companies like them in India. It's just not fair!

In my post, I was discussing about frequent policy changes and specifically policy changes that discriminate foreign investment. If the policy changes in e-commerce policy are to protect smaller business from e-commerce players, then the policy should treat both foreign and domestic players the same way. Am I right? How can the government predict that the Indian e-commerce ventures will not promote their own products?

Now, if you want to discuss about Amazon, this is not the thread for that. But let me tell you a fact: even in US (Amazon's biggest market) Amazon's retail market share is only around 5%. So, to tell that it is a threat to brick and mortar businesses is far fetched. In India it is not even close to that figure and e-commerce sales are very low in comparison.

[nasa_hubble]

Originally Posted by ashokrajagopal

Wow ! Isn't that an entirely different take on self reliant. Who owns the IP for this stuff ?

This post would have been entirely unnecessary had one taken the pain to understand the thread title.

We are talking about bringing US companies here so the IP obviously rests with the american companies. The IP rests with the US companies even when they manufacture in China.

We are trying to be a substitute for China not the USA.

Will be glad to clear anymore of your doubts .

[sram]

Originally Posted by nasa_hubble

Earlier most cellphones were imported. There were just 2 mobile manufacturing units in India in 2014. Last year in 2019 there were 268 companies manufacturing the cellphones and various accessories in India. Samsung, Apple have setup major units in India. Samsung in Noida. Apple in Chennai. Xiaomi in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. Now 95% mobiles sold here are "Made In India".

The sad reality here is they are assembled in India, that means every part is imported from China and gets Assembled in India.

India Doesn't have a single Commercial large scale IC fabrication facility, hence no Single IC present in the Cell phones are manufactured in India.

[Sutripta]

Originally Posted by v1p3r

In the long run, so do most countries. But then again in the long run, we are all dead.

It's actually something Barack Obama said. https://techcrunch.com/2016/10/17/pr...ike-a-startup/

There are lots of reasons why countries can't be equated with companies, let alone startups.

No company, startups included, would want to be in a country whose policies pivot like pirouetting ballerinas!

In India, this glamorization of (mostly me too) startups I find as perplexing as ours idolising juggads.

[ashokrajagopal]

Originally Posted by nasa_hubble

This post would have been entirely unnecessary had one taken the pain to understand the thread title.

We are talking about bringing US companies here so the IP obviously rests with the american companies. The IP rests with the US companies even when they manufacture in China.

We are trying to be a substitute for China not the USA.

Will be glad to clear anymore of your doubts .

Well, your post had self reliance spelt all over, and you were explaining how we became self reliant, I had to ask.
I have no other doubt except the question of how you connect that concept to the way mobile phones, chips are being sold in India.

Xiomi has highest market share in India. All brands together Chinese phones hold more than 50% of Indian market. What kind of replacing China is it if we assemble it here ?

[hothatchaway]

Originally Posted by nasa_hubble

This post would have been entirely unnecessary had one taken the pain to understand the thread title.

We are talking about bringing US companies here so the IP obviously rests with the american companies. The IP rests with the US companies even when they manufacture in China.

We are trying to be a substitute for China not the USA.

Will be glad to clear anymore of your doubts .

The PM's address on self reliance appeared to stress on home grown companies manufacturing in India. Overseas companies manufacturing in India is not a new phenomenon, case in point our automotive sector.

I personally did not understand the big fuss being created about overseas companies manufacturing here. Many currently do despite the decade old hurdles, which haven't gone away. And suspending labour laws is certainly not the incentive most credible companies look for. We need genuine reforms instead.

[Tucker48]

Originally Posted by mxx

In my post, I was discussing about frequent policy changes and specifically policy changes that discriminate foreign investment. If the policy changes in e-commerce policy are to protect smaller business from e-commerce players, then the policy should treat both foreign and domestic players the same way. Am I right? How can the government predict that the Indian e-commerce ventures will not promote their own products?

Now, if you want to discuss about Amazon, this is not the thread for that. But let me tell you a fact: even in US (Amazon's biggest market) Amazon's retail market share is only around 5%. So, to tell that it is a threat to brick and mortar businesses is far fetched. In India it is not even close to that figure and e-commerce sales are very low in comparison.

Let me put the order in chronology.

Walmart applies for retail license but was not granted due to opposition from retailers and they were given a wholesale license in 50-50 venture with Bharti.

Amazon came later and was given a licence for a marketplace which is what Amazon actually is and Indian govt has strict rules for FDI in multibrand retail stores. Is there any multibrand foreign store in India? Even IKEA faced tremendous trouble to open up restaurants in its stores in India all thanks to FDI rules.

Any Indian company can open a multibrand retail store or a marketplace, there are no restrictions for that.

Amazon created a subsidiary company with links difficult to be verified legally under the laws which are written to benefit the country as a whole.

Indian govt changed the law so that it can't be taken advantage of. And the changed law is that one retailer can't sell more than 50% of its goods to one marketplace(because that's the best the govt can do otherwise the law will become a deterrent to business). If this was to happen in USA, Amazon would have been facing billions of dollars in lawsuit.

I'm not discussing Amazon here. I'm talking about crony capitalism. Laws are made to facilitate the business and when these laws are broken so brazenly by a company then they deserve to be punished. Lucky for companies like Amazon and Vodafone, they don't face additional punitive charges. All thanks to our govt who wants to be seen as business friendly.

When companies game the system to their benefit, only a proactive govt can take actions like these.

If I being an ordinary citizen is aware of these facts then I'm sure any company who is looking to invest or move here in India is also aware of these facts. And any business who wants to do business under the existing laws will not be weary to do so.