[Cessna182]

Originally Posted by DigitalOne

China has so much hold over even US social media companies that they routinely censor any anti-China claims.

I heard about this earlier. Today, out of boredom, I tried copy pasting my reply above on a news video on an youtube channel.

And I was shocked!

Any mention of the word Chinese, and your comment will get deleted automatically! I see people posting bad things about Indians all the time, and the algorithm doesn't get triggered. But one mention of the word Chinese, and your comment is deleted. YouTube comments are trash anyways, but this just shows the extent to which the Communists and their supporters have infiltrated the world order.

[fordday]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

I Note for the OP - I'm not sure this job creation was wiped out only in the last 4 months. We were sitting on a 45-year high of unemployment several months before the lockdown. The cancer had spread much earlier. The lockdown accelerated the decline.

Very true sir. We were at 3.5% GDP growth and then the pandemic found us swimming naked.

And herein lies an opportunity for those in power. All these prior defects can be conveniently clubbed to Covid, in other words act of God.

[v1p3r]

We are in deep, deep, deep trouble. Of course some of us have been saying so for a while based on what we see, more likely if you run a business or lead an organisation.

Unfortunately, most of us live in our little white collar WFH bubble, so the impact will come later and be softer. I very seriously wonder if there will be a revolution and the misery will be forcefully redistributed.

I would really love for all the supporters of the mismanaged lockdown, on this very forum, who said "government knows best" and that it's "your duty as a patriotic Indian to obey" to now lead the way out of the current crisis so that our fellow Indians don't starve.

[Dry Ice]

Originally Posted by Cessna182

I heard about this earlier. Today, out of boredom, I tried copy pasting my reply above on a news video on an Youtube channel.

And I was shocked!

Any mention of the word Chinese, and your comment will get deleted automatically! I see people posting bad things about Indians all the time, and the algorithm doesn't get triggered. But one mention of the word Chinese, and your comment is deleted. YouTube comments are trash anyways, but this just shows the extent to which the Communists and their supporters have infiltrated the world order.

Channels have control over which words to block in comments. Just saying, may not be youtube at play here. Which news channel was it BTW?

[ashokrajagopal]

Regarding the "whistleblower" there was a Forbes article about the stuff being published and the foundations supporting this doctor. Right from the name of the paper being prepared to the claim that "scientific" community is conspiring with China is discussed.

Honestly, I have no intention of changing anybody's opinion. But it's a bit rich to keep claiming thru news sites about twitter denying access, when all it takes is to provide a page to her in their own websites and publish that paper.

China meddling with infection numbers is one thing and planning an attack with a virus is totally different.

Either way, the thread started with a real problem at hand. In no time it switched.
Whether this was man made or otherwise, the problem is still there and needs to be worked on.
I don't know at what point we as a country will deal with it.
Or should we wait for this match between God and CCP to end ?

[GTO]

I'm not that worried about those who lose a job and have a roof over their head, and a car parked in the driveway. My heart really goes out to the bottom strata of society - the daily wage earners, the cab drivers, the railway station porters, the restaurant waiters, the peons...it is these who are suffering the most and going to bed without filling their tummies.

The job loss is real and there is no telling when the economy will pick up. If you ask me, we will see the effects of this damn coronavirus for at least 3 years, before things get back to normal.

Too much suffering in the world today

[poloman]

Originally Posted by GTO

I'm not that worried about those who lose a job and have a roof over their head, and a car parked in the driveway.

But some of these people are highly leveraged and have huge EMIs for home car etc. A person with out any debt can manage job loss with out much pain. The job losses of this class will trickle down to the bottom strata. Why would a restaurant waiter or cab driver lose the job? Because people are not eating our or moving around. In India most of people employed in unorganised sector serve people working in organized sector.

If you open linkedin you will see desperate requests from youngsters who are unable to get a job. Job loss affect everyone. It not only affect your financial well being, but your mental well being as well.

In addition to unemployed people turning to selling vegetables and groceries, there are reports that lot of them have started trading which is reflected in huge rise of demat accounts. I am not saying this is a risky move, but unless you have the patience and right skills, many of these people will end up with additional pain and losses.

Preserve your capital, keep a cool head and hope for the best.

[V.Narayan]

As the lower half of society lose jobs they fall into two buckets - one those who can return to their villages and eke out a living, the key word is eke, from their limited family resources there. And second there are those who have been urbanized for a generation or more and really do not have economic resources back in the village to return to. The latter are in worse difficulty and they are all here in the cities. Let the economic drift linger on for a further six months and our upper white collar WFH bubble {to quote v1p3r} will also be squealing. As of now the Govt does not seem to have a game plan on the route out other than a tactical tweak here or there. They also do not communicate that they accept the gravity of the situation. The bright economic advisors have quit and the only somewhat competent FM has passed away. Sushma Swaraj had a grounded common sense and understanding of how things work but sadly she has passed away too. The plane is descending rapidly and the cockpit is empty. But we can be happy we now have two brand new executive jet Boeing 777s costing US$ 1.00 billion to transport VVIPs around and will soon have a new shiny Parliament building. The one job opening that will be in demand is that of political spin doctors.

[Samurai]

Originally Posted by v1p3r

I very seriously wonder if there will be a revolution and the misery will be forcefully redistributed.

I had alluded to this in the economics thread recently, that most revolutions in history were started this way.

Originally Posted by v1p3r

Unfortunately, most of us live in our little white collar WFH bubble, so the impact will come later and be softer.

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

Let the economic drift linger on for a further six months and our upper white collar WFH bubble {to quote v1p3r} will also be squealing.

I was planning to write about WFH bubble in the WFH thread, but never got the time. I was planning to address the efficiency of it, rather than the economic outfall. But in this thread, both need to be addressed.

I have personally done 50% WFH since 10 years and 100% WFH this year. I have done both individual contribution work (IC) and managed teams as wells as ICs while WFH. It takes a major attitude shift to make WFH work. You have to be highly motivated to stay efficient in WFH, and know how to manage time. If employees need constant prodding to deliver results, a technique regularly used by Indian managers in office environment, WFH will not deliver results.

For WFH to work, the measurement must shift from effort based to result based. You can't put someone on an assignment and wait while they work, work, work... everyone is very busy, very busy. Doing what? Attending meetings from dawn to dusk? Some managers and even peers think meeting is working. No, that's where you decide what to do. Actually doing takes more time than talking about it.

I usually call a WFH person, we decide the scope of work, and then I plainly ask them to give me realistic time estimate of completion, with multiple milestones. Once the time estimate is given, any delay in milestones should be tracked and must have valid causes. If you are dealing with a person doesn't know how long it will take or know how to manage time, such person won't survive in the WFH world we are all forced into. Most juniors and freshers fall into this category and are really going to feel the sharp end of most firings in the coming months. Even managers who don't know how to set realistic expectations and don't know how to inspire/manage WFH staff, will also fail badly, and are bound lose their jobs.

Unfortunately, most employees in the WFH bubble have not understood this. As an employer, I don't see much of a choice here. Covid-19 has decimated demand in almost every sector, and now we compete for business from a much smaller pie. We cannot lose customers due to inefficiency forced by WFH. Employers need employees who can work effectively from home. Those who blame WFH for their lack of productivity have limited careers. Covid-19 is here to stay for next couple years (or more) until an effective vaccine is found and majority of the world is vaccinated.

If you have only suffered a paycut, you are lucky. The only way your employer can keep you paying is if you can deliver results while WFH. Otherwise, you will be replaced by someone who can make WFH work. Yes, it is coming from me, who is regularly accused of being a bleeding heart liberal and socialist. Government is doing nothing but lip service. We live in a capitalistic country which claims to be somewhat socialist. But there is no welfare or unemployment benefit in India. It is time to wake up, because it is going to get lot worse soon.

[Sutripta]

Can someone explain to me the 'Four Years' part of the thread title. Substance behind it or just clever (alliteration) wordplay.

'Four Years' doesn't highlight the severity of the current situation.

Sutripta

[DigitalOne]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

As of now the Govt does not seem to have a game plan on the route out other than a tactical tweak here or there. They also do not communicate that they accept the gravity of the situation.

Originally Posted by Samurai

Government is doing nothing but lip service. We live in a capitalistic country which claims to be somewhat socialist. But there is no welfare or unemployment benefit in India. It is time to wake up, because it is going to get lot worse soon.

The govt seems to be focussed too much on the medium or long term. All the reforms and packages announced recently - Farm law changes, atmanirbhar defence procurement, privatization/disinvestment of PSUs, thrust on infrastructure etc - although welcome and necessary, won't give any benefit quickly.

To ensure short-term help, the govt must ensure a basic income for the most vulnerable population via the Jan Dhan accounts. Had discussed this in Economics (Understanding Economics) thread. Let all disinvestment/privatization proceeds from PSUs move to provide for a basic income. And then see how the people immediately would start to welcome privatization.

Secondly, the governments by now should realise young healthy people, even if they get the virus it is going to be asymptomatic or very mild. Schools and Colleges must start.. Education is a big part of the economy. Give a month to plan and start physical classes from 1-Nov; so families can isolate parents and other vulnerable members to safer locations.

Let all businesses open with reasonable safety restrictions. This is a psychological pandemic of fear, more than a medical pandemic, and it has to be treated as such.

[chinkara]

I would argue that there is a lot of hidden suffering among people who had gone back to villages today. Particularly in Assam, Bengal, Bihar and Orissa devastations due to floods and Ampan have resulted in destitution, even among the reasonably well off. I know several such people.

In fact, people who have stayed back in cities may be slightly better off as there are some NGOs (like Magicbus in Mumbai that I know of) organizing food for sustenance. Highly inadequate, but at least something is available.

Also there is a hidden class of suffering people - urban middle class who have lost jobs. I know of several where middle class jobs (IT year 2/3, Pilot in his 2nd / 3rd year) have been lost and savings are depleted after 6 months. These are the people trying to sell groceries etc. and losing more money.

Home loan foreclosures are only the tip of the iceberg here.

I know of someone who used to be an IT lawyers clerk filling up IT returns etc. (respectable middle class job, right?); now reduced to 1 meal a day in his village in Orissa.

Originally Posted by DigitalOne

To ensure short-term help, the govt must ensure a basic income for the most vulnerable population via the Jan Dhan accounts. ....
Let all businesses open with reasonable safety restrictions. This is a psychological pandemic of fear, more than a medical pandemic, and it has to be treated as such.

I am ambivalent about education, but the 2 points above are spot on. Unfortunately, even if businesses open, footfalls remain a challenge. A former colleague opened a restaurant a year and half back, it was doing well, now even after reopening, it is struggling.

[Guna]

What I see in Bangalore (and this must be the case elsewhere) is, almost all shops and businesses are open. But people are only buying groceries and essentials (including medicines). There is almost zero footfall in other shops.
Similarly companies are not spending on any capital investments/expansions and keeping the expenditure to the bare minimum.
What I am surprised is that unlike the during 2008, where the stocks fell by 500% and car sales where probably at all time low, stock market seems to be doing fine and car sales seem to have picked up. Is it a matter of people not reading the 'writings on the wall' or there are some inherent fundamentals which are still intact and people are able to sense it?

[v1p3r]

Originally Posted by DigitalOne

This is a psychological pandemic of fear, more than a medical pandemic, and it has to be treated as such.

Too late. Our worthies said things like 'going out is like inviting death into your home' and suchlike. Now obviously anyone who coughs is looked at like a nudist at Sunday mass. Most people are sheep, and you've now told them that sitting at home is the safest way to survive. So that's what they'll do.

Of course, in other countries, the govts are giving subsidies and sops to people to shop and eat out, like the UK's Eat Out To Help Out campaign. Here, instead, we've decimated our restaurant industry with abject stupidity - restaurants can open, depending on city, but not serve alcohol, depending on which city again.

Frankly, the mismanagement continues with no end in sight. Mumbai's latest 144 is just another example. As a nation, we are in our worst quagmire since independence - economy, Covid, China - and yet all we do is talk about some actor's suicide and how Bollywood is drug infested. Maybe we, in all our democratic splendour, deserve no better.

There is no real solution to any of this unfortunately, because it is the result of systemic rot and years of negligence. We can't fix this with easy sops. However, if anyone has any ideas, I am willing do to what I can to support it.

[prasathlr]

I am yet to see pre-covid levels of population in my area in Bangalore. The whole area would be buzzing with people and vendors from the morning and used to reach peak levels in the evening but there are hardly any people in the area. I would say around 30-40% of pre-covid levels.

Yesterday evening I had been to Indiranagar to check out some TVs from some popular stores. I had visited Reliance Digital, Croma and Girias and I was as literally shocked to find hardly any people in the store. There were maybe 2-3 persons other than me in all the stores but the number of staffs in these stores were more than 10. I couldn't imagine these stores paying rent in Indiranagar along with other expenditures to run the stores. Given that, people might have gotten used to online shopping due to Covid, the situation looks grim. Last week, I had been to Phoenix mall, Whitefield and never saw that mall so empty!

Even after my company informed us that there is no risk of losing our jobs, I am still pretty anxious that something might go wrong and I just can't imagine the mental state of these retail employees are going through right now. One of the toughest times for everyone.