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Old 19th September 2020, 21:17   #31
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Default re: 66 lakh white collar jobs lost in 4 months, due to Covid-19

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Originally Posted by v1p3r View Post
As a nation, we are in our worst quagmire since independence - economy, Covid, China - and yet all we do is talk about some actor's suicide and how Bollywood is drug infested. Maybe we, in all our democratic splendour, deserve no better.

There is no real solution to any of this unfortunately, because it is the result of systemic rot and years of negligence. We can't fix this with easy sops. However, if anyone has any ideas, I am willing do to what I can to support it.
I concur with what you've said. Sadly, I am forced to believe that people like me, yourself and many others on the forum who see a growing problem in the country are in the minority. When I see people are least bothered with the economy and way more concerned with the bollywood industry, I lose hope because a few supposedly 'news' outlets are able to distract a country of 1.2 billion. I often wonder what I can do to help in such a situation too. Other than small donations online, tipping drivers etc. I would appreciate some suggestions too.

This may be a bit off topic and mods please delete this if you feel it's inappropriate. The apathy that I see regarding major events in the past few years (mismanaged lockdown, demonetization etc) has made me lose hope of any change. We see many such posts that portray outrage online whether it be the forum, youtube, twitter etc. but there's no actual movement against any such decision in the real world. I often wonder what I can do and can't help but feel powerless :/
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Old 19th September 2020, 23:09   #32
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Default re: 66 lakh white collar jobs lost in 4 months, due to Covid-19

^^^I know that we have blamed the media and the politicians for manipulating the public discourse, and rightly so, but if I reflect, I find that it is us, the citizens of India, who are to be blamed. After all, it is us who latch onto all tall claims trotted out by the government. It's us who suspend logic and accept fantastic claims based on pseudo science. We happily participate in media trials and let us be fooled by scandalous claims. All we need is for lies to be repeated to us twenty times a day, and like little children, we lap them up.

What stops us from turning off the tv and shutting out talking heads who do little else but compete in shouting matches. Why can't we forget communal differences from also a century back? Why can't we give our children a real education, instead of teaching them to deal in degrees?

I am sorry India, but our nasty media and the politicians only have to hold a mirror to us, to get us going.
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Old 20th September 2020, 18:18   #33
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Default re: 66 lakh white collar jobs lost in 4 months, due to Covid-19

The drug of hatred is far more dangerous than any Cocaine, Ganja, etc. When you get this drug on your TV/Smartphone, etc you just forget about all other issues. Even if you are a migrant & have been hit hard by the lockdown you won't feel the pain because this drug is so soothing! The de-addiction process of those who consume this hatred drug is very difficult even impossible. The one way this could have been kept in check was through the Supreme Court but sadly that's not the case. This drug is too addictive. There is no easy solution for this situation.

Last edited by CarNerd : 20th September 2020 at 18:19.
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Old 20th September 2020, 20:29   #34
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Default re: 66 lakh white collar jobs lost in 4 months, due to Covid-19

I won't comment on the report or the government or the opposition. I'll just try to state facts that I'm seeing in my immediate family and neighborhood. My post might be .

There are a couple of grocery shops right opposite our house. Their business has been great during this lockdown. They've been doing home delivery too. Infact one of them started his business in February. Initial days of lockdown were difficult for them to manage but slowly, everything fell in place and their business picked up.

There are 2 maids at our place, the one doing cooking has been coming all along. The one who did cleaning was not called for a few months of lockdown and now does only cleaning of clinic. Both were paid in full for the duration. Both of them also have got help from government in form of 5 kgs of rice and 5 kgs of wheat per person in family along with other items like gram and pulses every month since April. And for this very effort by the government, they're all praise for them. They've never been helped by any previous government in any way.

Our driver has been doing sundry duties of getting some stuff or other things. The car has hardly moved around 50kms since 4th July when my other clinic was shut down. He has been also paid in full.

Staffs at our clinics are being paid in full and were paid even for lockdown period.

We did not donate to any of the organisations or funds but we did contribute to our tailor whose shop was shut for over 2 months. Plus a few more people who needed help. I feel that donating to a fund doesn't help as you don't know how it's going to be put to use. It's better to help your known people who are in need with the same amount.

Our house needed urgent repairs so mason work is going on. They say that they've not had any issue during the lockdown, work did suffer for a few days but then it continued.

So basically, we have been trying to continue with whatever way we could.

Now coming to us, Dad has a pathology lab and the footfall has gone down by 80%. I'm into private practice and I get less than 90% of what I used to get earlier, there is no physical examination being done by me. Plus all surgeries have been put on hold or being sent to other hospitals as there are higher chances of droplet infection inside an OT. Moreover, I have aged parents with me so I don't want to take any chances. Wife is a dentist and almost all dentists have shut their clinics since March. Overall, the income has come down but expenses are similar.

Our country has maximum number of people employed in unorganized sector. And this is the sector which has been hit the worst. There is no job security. But the issue is that the repercussions of this economic fall out has hit almost every household.

Yes, China has literally uploaded a virus into the world economy and has made it crumble without them getting any hit.

Last edited by BoneCollector : 20th September 2020 at 20:37.
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Old 20th September 2020, 23:13   #35
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Default re: 66 lakh white collar jobs lost in 4 months, due to Covid-19

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Originally Posted by V.Narayan View Post
The bright economic advisors have quit and the only somewhat competent FM has passed away. Sushma Swaraj had a grounded common sense and understanding of how things work but sadly she has passed away too.
One was not supposed to survive as long as one did, The other was sidelined early on. Would not have made a difference now, even if alive.


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The plane is descending rapidly and the cockpit is empty.
So not even CFIT?

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The one job opening that will be in demand is that of political spin doctors.
You are underestimating the employment generating potential of the whole ecosystem. Off the top of my head, in addition to the spin doctors, there will be openings for creative accountants and statisticians, and of course the 'police force' which ensures that the country speaks in one unanimous patriotic voice, no dissenting treasonous traitorous seditious opinions anywhere.

Looks like for the foreseeable future our (India's) 15 minutes of fame on the world stage are over. As we slipback to being a country of great potential, but under the radar.

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Originally Posted by dealer View Post
who see a growing problem in the country are in the minority.
Not only are we in a minority, our numbers are irrelevant.
Fact remains that though a large part of the population are unhappy over some aspect of the what is happening in the country today, they are also exuberantly happy about other aspects of the countries current path. And that supersedes everything else.

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The apathy that I see regarding major events in the past few years (mismanaged lockdown, demonetization etc)
Good example. Demonetisation is already forgotten.

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Originally Posted by hothatchaway View Post
I find that it is us, the citizens of India, who are to be blamed.
Previously I would have agreed with this. Variation of a country getting the government it deserves. (And hidden in it would be an assumption that 'we' are not really part of this country, that we inhabit a somewhat different plane.)
But today I will not just disagree with that view, I would disagree energetically. It has to do with the earlier view that the politicians/ leaders are essentially passive, reflecting the views of society. And the newer view that they do FAR more than that, cynically and actively not just changing our views (accepted part of an evolving society responding to thought leaders) but actually manipulating us.

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Old 21st September 2020, 01:54   #36
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Default re: 66 lakh white collar jobs lost in 4 months, due to Covid-19

I am not being sarcastic but isn’t it ironical that the original post would lead us to believe that jobs were indeed generated during the last four years ? The truth is, demonetisation broke the back of the informal sector where maximum jobs were generated and whatever little was left has been completely wiped out by the advent of Covid and it’s subsequent repercussions. We will take a sizeable time to get back to pink of health regarding the economy as far as I am concerned.
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Old 21st September 2020, 07:04   #37
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Default re: 66 lakh white collar jobs lost in 4 months, due to Covid-19

I have no clue about whats happening. If I talk to friends and acquaintances regarding the rising number of covid, lack of clarity on the real situation and dismal healthcare facilities and the unemployment problem, the standard response is "if nothing happened in the last 70 years then how can the current regime change everything in less than 10 years ? But at least you see how things have improved from 2014"

The general defense is as follows:

1) Stock markets are booming
2) Moratorium ended but hardly any defaults - so that means people have their jobs, money in their banks - its just that people enjoyed EMI holiday - people are bullish on banking stocks
3) Look at digital india - so many companies investing here
4) The unemployment problem and migrant labour issues are exaggerated. And they will forward me some messages with graphs that talks about 1000s of crores deposited in the accounts coming under jan dhan yojana.

Australia, Japan, New Zealand declared that they are undergoing recession. But we still have not. The Wire, Telegraph, The Hindu keeps publishing some articles on economic and fiscal health, GDP etc. But then they are not considered worthy in front of Republic, Aaj Tak, Times Now.

And when i look at the trending topics from Twitter India. Unemployment, hunger and slowdown are not trending in tweets compared to that of some topics that are not even worth discussing. And the other suggestion i got was that I should learn to support my country and not think negative all the time.
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Old 21st September 2020, 09:46   #38
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Default re: 66 lakh white collar jobs lost in 4 months, due to Covid-19

The challenge is the defination of what is a lost job?

If it's termination of "on roll" employees then possibly the numbers are correct. But you expand the universe to contract labour, sabbatical issued, furloughs,forced resignations, then the number may be much much larger than what we are talking about.
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Old 21st September 2020, 10:27   #39
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Default re: 66 lakh white collar jobs lost in 4 months, due to Covid-19

I have always been a cynic about statistics, how they are collected, and the motivation behind it all. As someone who studied statistics during graduation, I am not proud of it but I find it hard to take economic data at face value. What is very unambiguous however is what you hear from personal interaction.

In March this year I permanently shut down my restaurant but I am still in touch with my former staff because I am trying to help them get a job through my social media network. All except one of them have been unemployed since the lockdown and have had zero cash inflow for 6 months. They are willing to work at any salary at any location. My vendors' businesses have been wiped out, their staff have been sacked, the staff from Zomato/Swiggy whom I used to interact with have lost their jobs and have taken up jobs way below their skill levels, some of them working on zero salary and 100% commission model. Housekeeping agencies and office caterers are the worst hit. Retail establishments across the city are empty and we may have a 2nd wave of shut downs because landlords who chose to forego rent during lockdown are not so generous now. I find it very difficult to understand how any retail establishment is managing to stay open.

Porter tempo drivers and cab drivers get one or 2 customers in a day, sometimes not even that. Salaries have been deferred or not paid or being paid in instalments. The unemployment data does not take into account people working with significant salary cuts. I don't even know how the self employed population is accounted for, which is the worst hit. I am without a job and any source of income and surviving on my savings. There is no way the government or any researcher has a way of capturing this. I don't blame the government for creating this crisis, but they surely are clueless about managing it. Not that any other government would have done a stellar job.

If you believe the worst is behind us, I admire your optimism, because the people I interact with are going through a very bad time and nothing is going to change for them any time soon. What has happened is a consolidation of oversupply in retail and this is a structural change. There will be some re-allocation of manpower due to this, but the fact is that total demand has come down drastically. If you are working from home, your apartment complex still requires the same number of security staff. If you are eating 2 meals at home instead of 1, your grocery delivery requirement may have increased but your vendor can manage with say 1.5 times manpower instead of 2x.

Last edited by Malyaj : 21st September 2020 at 10:41. Reason: edited for clarity
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Old 21st September 2020, 10:42   #40
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Default re: 66 lakh white collar jobs lost in 4 months, due to Covid-19

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Originally Posted by Malyaj View Post
In March this year I permanently shut down my restaurant but I am still in touch with my former staff because I am trying to help them get a job through my social media network.
I am very sorry to hear this. I read your posts on the restaurant business and your earlier posts on how the lockdown had affected your business and I really admire the leadership you showed and continue to show while continuing to care for your employees.
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Old 21st September 2020, 10:45   #41
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Default re: 66 lakh white collar jobs lost in 4 months, due to Covid-19

It’s sad to see people commenting that Chinese purposefully created the Corona virus. How come people believe such conspiracy theories without any kind of evidence. Agreed China is a dangerous neighbour, but the countries who try to become super powers are all dangerous ones if you look into history. US is actually the only country which has toppled the largest number of democratic regimes all across the globe, hell they have created Banana Republics (see the documentary about how the word banana republic came into).

Please stop blaming other countries for our inefficiencies. We have lost 400 doctors to Covid, no main stream media has headlines on that! You need to die in unnecessary wars at borders to get your blood boiled, no amount of deaths within the country will matter. We are fighting for imaginatory lines drawn on maps, ridiculous to say the least. Some stupids have made mistakes in the past is no reason to carry that ahead. I myself have been a sore loser in life, I have done stupid things in my 20's which I wouldn't repeat even if given all the riches in the world and it would be true for most of you. You all grow up and try to be a better person everyday. Progress is like a never ending train going forward, you can decide not to board the train of progress, but the train will go ahead. If a nation behaves like a teenager or young brat even after 70 years there is something fundamentally wrong.

If we accuse the Chinese, we have more dangerous version of bacteria that originated in India, the New Delhi beta-lactamase producing bacteriae which are resistant to most antibiotics, will you guys say India deliberately created the bacteria? What has resulted in this tragedy is the short sightedness of the authorities. They forgot the simple proverb "Health is wealth". It's actually outrageous when one reads the government comparing Car taxation rate in India with that of Japan and UK, will they be ready to compare the health care also with those countries. The government compares our taxes with that of developed countries and health care with Sub Saharan african countries.

As long as we are ready to swallow what the politicians are telling without even thinking and are glued to television news which discuss some handful of rich bollywood brats consuming illicit drugs, nothing will change. Next time your councillor comes begging for votes make sure that your area has a good and efficient public healthcare facility. Economy will recover albeit slowly, but never ever forget why we were in this situation, lest history will not be kind on us. For our coming generations we must stand up and make a choice. Spending 5-6% of GDP on helathcare will itself make us a prosperous nation in 25-30 years.

Last edited by Sheel : 21st September 2020 at 12:17. Reason: As requested.
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Old 21st September 2020, 11:33   #42
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Default re: 66 lakh white collar jobs lost in 4 months, due to Covid-19

Job losses ==> reduced consumption ==> more job losses

This looks like a vicious cycle. Are the stock markets ignoring this ground situation? A lot of stocks have totally wiped out the Corona losses, and some are making new all time highs. Either people expect the economy to get bqvk on track soon, or the stocks have to fall back to reality.
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Old 21st September 2020, 11:40   #43
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Default re: 66 lakh white collar jobs lost in 4 months, due to Covid-19

The biggest reason for the mess we're currently in (aside from Covid) is our high population. No government of a developing country can plan for rehabilitation of a hundred million people affected economically by this pandemic. Yes they government could've handled things better, but hindsight always has 20/20 vision.
I'm not defending the government but part of our population is also to blame. At the risk of sounding callous, I'll say that people who already have a hand-to-mouth existence should've better sense than to give birth to a large family & when their livelihood is robbed, blame it on the government for inadequate support. If a guy selling vegetables has 3 kids who he can't even send to school (& thus doesn't care about their standard of living), what should the government do in this case?
Ultimately, it is the tax paying class upon whom the burden falls to rehabilitate the economy by way of higher taxation, donation to care funds etc.
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Old 21st September 2020, 11:58   #44
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Default re: 66 lakh white collar jobs lost in 4 months, due to Covid-19

The real situation is much worse than projected by current GDP and unemployment numbers.
I was watching analysis of current economic situation(from a credible news group), and as per their information:-
1. GDP only reflects 50%(organized sector) of the countries situation.
2. Many economists and some government economist believes india's share of real GDP equally depends on organized and unorganized sector(which the current GDP calculation does not takes into account)
3. And the un-organized sector is hit the most.

So, expect the real situation to be even worse than is shown in government's no.s and graphs.
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Old 21st September 2020, 11:58   #45
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Default re: 66 lakh white collar jobs lost in 4 months, due to Covid-19

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Originally Posted by superbad View Post
The biggest reason for the mess we're currently in (aside from Covid) is our high population. No government of a developing country can plan for rehabilitation of a hundred million people affected economically by this pandemic. Yes they government could've handled things better, but hindsight always has 20/20 vision.
I'm not defending the government but part of our population is also to blame. At the risk of sounding callous, I'll say that people who already have a hand-to-mouth existence should've better sense than to give birth to a large family & when their livelihood is robbed, blame it on the government for inadequate support. If a guy selling vegetables has 3 kids who he can't even send to school (& thus doesn't care about their standard of living), what should the government do in this case?
Ultimately, it is the tax paying class upon whom the burden falls to rehabilitate the economy by way of higher taxation, donation to care funds etc.
Everyone pays taxes. Even the poorest of the poor. Income tax is not the only tax around. Corona Virus came in through planes. Who controls civil aviation? The government. So, the government MUST be blamed for letting the virus come in without taking adequate measures. Don't blame population for an absolutely callous, idiotic and insensitive government. If we don't fix accountability, things will never change.

Cheers,

Jay
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