[blackwasp]

Do you have a job? About 6.6 million white collar professionals, including engineers, physicians and teachers, lost their jobs between May and August, bringing their employment to the lowest level since 2016 and wiping out the gains made over the last four years, the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy said.

Many more don't: The actual figures are likely to be much higher as CMIE's latest Consumer Pyramids Household Survey doesn't include April, the worst month of job losses. The figure does not include qualified self-employed professional entrepreneurs as well. Five million industrial workers were also out of work during the period.

Centre isn't counting: The Centre told Parliament this week that it has no data on the jobs lost during the pandemic. Since the government doesn't release official jobs data regularly, CMIE data is widely accepted by economists. A World Bank report in April had said that the lockdown impacted nearly 40 million migrant jobs.

Check out the data here.


Source

[RSR]

The horrifying thing is, this is not an indicator of the true extent of job losses. This is only an approximate estimation for the formal sector. The hit on informal sector workers would be much, much worse.

[Shreyans_Jain]

The amount of damage done to the informal sections of the economy is incalculable. This sector almost exclusively driven by small businesses, a lot of whome don’t have access to formal credit facilities. They are one of the biggest employers and a major cog of the overall economy. A thriving informal economy keeps the overall consumption picture rosy even in face of headwinds. 4 years is a very optimistic assessment. The damage done in terms of jobs lost and hard earned money wiped out is worth at least a decade.

And, the damage is still continuing. If anyone actually thinks recovery has started, they are kidding themselves. The government could have at least tried to make amends for their disastrous lockdowns. But that pathetic excuse of an economic package was a cruel joke played on the people of the country. Result? This time of the year right before the festive season is seeing empty markets, idle factories and jobless people. Such a dire situation before Diwali has never happened in the living memory of an entire generation.

The administrations can do all the creative accounting the want. Their salaries are secure. It is the common man on the street who has to bear the brunt of their stupidities and incompetence.

[Kosfactor]

That is not painting the correct picture here.

Our labour market is like this as per the government in 2013-14.

49.5% was self employed, 30.9% casual labour, 16.5% Wage \ salary earners.

According to government data from labour department. Link




2013-14 survey shows unemployment rate at 4.9 . Link



Post Demonetization survey shows the unemployment rate at 6.1.Link

And then sometime later to the present day pre and post lockdown. Link



Maybe we need an act of god to save the economy.

[Cessna182]

Originally Posted by RSR

With each passing day, the Chinese coronavirus pandemic looks more & more like an economic hit job on the entire world carried out by the rogue mafia that runs the PRC.

I concur with this view although it is a politically incorrect opinion these days.

Sadly, the Chinese have leverage in most countries globally and no one will speak out against them. We, as consumers help their regime with every Communist Party sponsored brand like Xiaomi or Huawei or MG that we buy.


There is no way for China's casualty figures to be what they are. They may make grandiose statements about healthcare achievements, but it is difficult to believe that just one province could infect the world without affecting their own cities.


If you look around your neighborhood, you might find a lot more vegetable, tea etc. sellers. Many factory and office workers have been laid off and have to resort to selling on a rickshaw to survive.

In India, the suffering is very acute because there has been no relief at all. The government just dismissed the deaths of migrant workers who undertook the largest reverse migration since independence! It appears that citizens are just tax sources who can fund the luxuries for the bureaucracy and the political class. I cannot reveal the source, but even academics in the most revered Indian institutes are now suffering because their variable pay has been cut, at a time when research funding has seen an uptick in most countries.

India is suffering not only because of the virus, but also because of an absolutely insensitive administration which has the money for vanity projects like a new Parliament but not for honoring and recognizing medical professionals who have lost their lives in this fight

[DigitalOne]

Originally Posted by Cessna182

I concur with this view although it is a politically incorrect opinion these days.

Sadly, the Chinese have leverage in most countries globally and no one will speak out against them. We, as consumers help their regime with every Communist Party sponsored brand like Xiaomi or Huawei or MG that we buy.

China has so much hold over even US social media companies that they routinely censor any anti-China claims.

Twitter suspends account of Chinese virologist who said Covid-19 virus was made in Wuhan laboratory

Source

[fordday]

I will give you an on the ground scenario from my little world.

Two auto drivers and one Ola/Uber taxi driver has been with us for some years. One almost from his childhood. In these difficult times I have been supporting them with cash as much as possible.
One auto guy is in Bangalore and the other two in Guwahati.

The bangalore guy says in last six months he had probably got six customers. Last week, out of frustration, he cut the plastic hood of his auto, flattened the back rest and lifted the seat up and started selling vegetables on it.

The other two are in near state of losing their sanity.

All of them has aadhar cards and ration cards. But none got any benefits from the govt. The ration shop will be mostly closed or remain open without any stock.

They do not have any voice nor do they have any energy left to protest or demand anything.

I request all our well to do members to help those less privileged in their known circle. It is only going to get worse.

It seems most people are living in Utopia when they say nothing much adverse happened due to lockdown.

[Chinmay]

Originally Posted by Cessna182

I concur with this view although it is a politically incorrect opinion these days.

If you look around your neighborhood, you might find a lot more vegetable, tea etc. sellers. Many factory and office workers have been laid off and have to resort to selling on a rickshaw to survive.

In India, the suffering is very acute because there has been no relief at all. The government just dismissed the deaths of migrant workers who undertook the largest reverse migration since independence! It appears that citizens are just tax sources who can fund the luxuries for the bureaucracy and the political class. I cannot reveal the source, but even academics in the most revered Indian institutes are now suffering because their variable pay has been cut, at a time when research funding has seen an uptick in most countries.

I am seeing this first hand everyday. Vendors come in autos, omnis, bikes, scooters, even in M-800s and Altos to sell fruits and vegetables around our apartment. They can also be seen on the main roads. I was talking to my trusted back-up driver, who has been with me since 2009, about the taxi scene. He has not had a booking in the last 5 months. The guy had got a loan to build his house, and is in trouble now with no income and loan defaults. My wife's beauty parlour has started selling fruits and vegetables now, because they cannot pay the rent. 100's of small restaurants and eateries selling hygenic and healthy food have shut their shops. A number of migrants working in our area in various jobs had to leave by hiring a bus from WB, because they could not get tickets for the special trains. This is just what I see and sense from my surroundings. I am sure its way worse than this, and a cascading effect will be felt sooner or later.
As you have rightly said, the lockdown should have been followed by sufficient relief measures. I mean, a three month moratorium on loans is of no use to these guys! Bureaucracy is, as always, clueless, and good only at passing confusing orders, while the common man suffers!
I work for a research publication company, and can tell you that India is way behind a number of countries as far as research is concerned. China (we have some Chinese clients) is far ahead of us in this aspect. Koreans are doing a lot of cutting edge research. I don't know what is wrong with India. The number of Indian clients we have is really low, and most are corporate clients. Rarely do we get business from universities, unlike any other western or Asian countries. No wonder Indians go abroad to get published in popular journals. It is perhaps the government's apathetic attitude. We could have been where China is right now!

[motorpsycho]

Most of those impacted in Bangalore are the IT Enabled services folks, most of cab drivers who ferry IT workforce are impacted as they are no longer being paid with IT working from home for quite some time.

Hospitality industry has too been impacted severely, one of my relative mentioned restaurateurs are in dire straits.
Support staff in IT companies too have been impacted.

Gym in Bangalore, may not have been that impacted as many of us pay yearly or fees per quarter.

[for_cars1]

Originally Posted by Cessna182

...

India is suffering not only because of the virus..

The suffering is very real, what is also a grave concern is a total lack of precautions, masks and social distancing being followed by the general public, atleast in Bangalore. No wonder the City is ranked second in the infection rate.

Well everybody knows about precautions, but just like everything else, this Chalta Hain attitude of our society extends here too unfortunately.

[AYP]

This data proves why 'arbitrary fear' cannot and should not drive a society and its governance as a whole. Individuals may make their own choice though.

[V.Narayan]

We should make no mistake - India is facing its worst, by a very long lead, economic crises since 1947. I have a very clear memory of 1979-80, 1989-91, and a modest but clear memory of 1974 and of course 2008 which most on this forum will recall too. None of those knock downs had such a significant impact on GDP and unemployment as the present one. Most of us would struggle to determine the right basket of solutions given that we don't have a precedent. One detrimental common characteristic that 1974, 1979 and 1989-91 had was a desperate shortage of forex reserves & inflation. Those two at least we are safe from today. It is likely that 2021-22 could see a notional growth in GDP of say 7% but that would only be so as the denominator would be a seriously shrunken one. But it will be touted as an great achievement by the spin doctors just like we saw in 1980-81. Napoleon once said that an army marches on its stomach. Well voters vote on their stomach too.

Note for the OP - I'm not sure this job creation was wiped out only in the last 4 months. We were sitting on a 45-year high of unemployment several months before the lockdown. The cancer had spread much earlier. The lockdown accelerated the decline.

[Sutripta]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

Well voters vote on their stomach too.

Yes. But the target for their ire can be 'managed'.

Do you think one of the side effects of Covid is hallucination? Asking because some people are seeing green shoots everywhere. Apparently the upward slope of our V shaped valley is verdant.

Sutripta

[fordday]

Originally Posted by Sutripta

Asking because some people are seeing green shoots everywhere. Apparently the upward slope of our V shaped valley is verdant.

Sutripta

Only 'those' tricksters and snake oil sellers are seeing and showing green shoots everywhere.
Most of the population are worrying where the next meal will come from.

[Kosfactor]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

Napoleon once said that an army marches on its stomach. Well voters vote on their stomach too.

Note for the OP - I'm not sure this job creation was wiped out only in the last 4 months. We were sitting on a 45-year high of unemployment several months before the lockdown. The cancer had spread much earlier. The lockdown accelerated the decline.

True. Unemployment rate was already at historical high levels.

Voters have no choice, whatever is left of the opposition is clueless and have no agenda to speak of. So like Sutripta said voter's ire is already managed through a complete lockdown.