Team-BHP > Shifting gears


Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Old 2nd December 2020, 14:44   #46
BHPian
 
aniyo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Location: Bangalore
Posts: 524
Thanked: 1,428 Times
Default Re: India is now officially in recession

Quote:
Originally Posted by DigitalOne View Post
Agree on the GST implementation in 2017. Disagree on eInvoicing implementation in Oct 2020. I work with an IT MNC in the GST solutions area for our customers. In fact, during e-Invoice we had reached out multiple times to GSTN/NIC giving suggestions on the implementation and these were accommodated. Yes, there were last minute changes till September end but the one-month concession helped.
Great to hear that. I had quit in Feb'20 and till then it was very chaotic. Good thing they sorted the mess early. I think for now it is for companies with turnover above 500Cr
aniyo is offline   (1) Thanks
Old 2nd December 2020, 14:45   #47
BHPian
 
SuvidC's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2015
Location: New Delhi
Posts: 48
Thanked: 98 Times
Default Re: India is now officially in recession

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cessna182 View Post
It is just a coincidence that every other country with similar population density managed it better.
This propensity to bog down the elected government and then mock those who come forth with numbers is something that should be avoided, atleast in an August forum like TBHP (which, correct me if I am wrong, is politically and ideologically neutral). I have my own reservations about how this government has been functioning, but I do not think that an automotive forum should be used as a tool to keep criticizing the government from the benefit of a hindsight and the comfort of our homes.

While I do not have any financial expertise and therefore won't comment on the state of our economy, what I know for a fact (because I have witnessed this first hand) and can assure this forum is that the government has been making a really sincere effort since January this year and all the so called incompetent administrative officials and the central and state leadership that is being nonchalantly mocked here have been working really very hard to get us past this in any which way possible. The co-ordination between different government functionaries has really been astonishing and the situation would have been far worse had the government not put up a sincere effort to rise to the occassion.

I would request the mods to delete this post if this is going against the forum rules, but I strongly believe that this topic could well be discussed without being political and excessively/unjustly critical of the current dispensation and the administrative class who has been toiling really hard to fight the pandemic with all they have.

Peace.
SuvidC is offline   (6) Thanks
Old 2nd December 2020, 14:47   #48
BHPian
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Bangalore
Posts: 103
Thanked: 1,143 Times
Default Re: India is now officially in recession

Fact check on the so-called "4-hour" lockdown announcement

After the Janata Curfew (Mar 22nd, Sunday) many states had already announced curfews or lockdowns from Monday (March 23rd) onwards.

When the national lockdown was announced by PM on Tue (Mar 24th, 8 PM), almost all the country was already in states' declared lockdowns or curfew.

This news report from March 23th is very revealing.

India is now officially in recession-covidlockdown.jpg

Please read the state wise lockdown actions taken before national lockdown was announced in link below.

Source: Indian Express

Last edited by DigitalOne : 2nd December 2020 at 14:57.
DigitalOne is offline   (8) Thanks
Old 2nd December 2020, 15:15   #49
BHPian
 
ABHI_1512's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2020
Location: Calcutta
Posts: 398
Thanked: 3,920 Times
Default Re: India is now officially in recession

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stribog View Post
Second guessing with the benefit of hindsight is not something a government faced with an unprecedented global pandemic can do.

Giving time to impose a lockdown would have been counterproductive as interstate movement might have accelerated, accelerating the spread of COVID. If anything giving a say 1 month notice would have meant we didn't even need a lockdown following it.


To ignore all these (and more) reforms and say "govt has done nothing" is imo either based in ignorance or political ideology driven.

Even accounting for the JIO investments, this is an unprecedented high.

SO no, not everything is doom and gloom, if anything in my limited view, we are set for a decade long boom / growth spurt.

Jai Hind always!
Glad to know of your views about the lockdown which ensured loss of lives, both actively and passively. Anyways, keeping the lockdown part aside, just some points that you have raised and kept it short under the Ďrationalisationí word and about the reforms part:

Labour laws have been majorly diluted under the guise of reforms and the laws are now heavily against the folks working in factories, industries and other sectors. Sweeping exemptions from legal provisions aimed at protecting workers is not exactly a rational move, not certainly when such bills are passed forcefully under disguise and without any debates in the parliament.

Agricultural reforms as one would like to believe should have been welcomed, specially if the farmers are benefitting but that is not so, going by the protests across. Also, the talk about MSP is futile since MSP and procurement are effective for paddy and wheat only. Of course, we all want the farmers to benefit and not the middlemen. But reality is, itís the middlemen who benefit the most and no government( state/centre) has been able to stop it.

I am quite surprised when you talk of reduction of informal economy through digitisation. It is well known that there is life outside the cities too !!

The reduction in corporate taxes was a huge disappointment and resulted in only revenue loss for the government. The steep cut from 30% to 22% was a regressive step and only resulted in steep loss without spurring any growth at all. So the rate cut was anything but Ďrationalisationí.

The less said about the GST roll out, the better. When everyone knows the hasty rollout was both ill timed and unnecessary, specially after the shock of demonetisation, I find it surprising that you think otherwise.

Not saying anything about the banks consolidation because at the end of it, itís all about rationalisation.

While you say that itís the most reform oriented government, the unemployment level was at the 45 year high before the pandemic. Reforms are nothing if they donít bring you results and we all know the results.

Since some time now, we have been subjected to many rhetorics. One such rhetoric was that we will be an economic superpower by 2020. Now the goal post has shifted to 2024. We all will be happy to see our country grow and become the superpower but for that someone has to work diligently and not indulge in whataboutary all the time.

Recession is real and we all have been impacted in some way or the other. The first step in overcoming the situation is to admit that something is wrong and then work towards it. Just rhetoric doesnít count and neither branding anyone who doesnít agree to your views as being ignorant.

And yes, Jai Hind but regards as well.
ABHI_1512 is offline   (19) Thanks
Old 2nd December 2020, 15:59   #50
Senior - BHPian
 
download2live's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Sydney
Posts: 1,130
Thanked: 634 Times
Default Re: India is now officially in recession

Quote:
Originally Posted by concorde24 View Post
This is the same question in my mind as well. I was thinking that with the quarterly results, we could see prolonged slump, but Stock has crossed Pre-March Highs. Recession and All-time-high do not seem to add up
Bucket loads of money is getting printed by goverments all over the world. And at same time interest rates on saving accounts is almost close to nil. For people looking for growth, stock market is the only place.

Add to this mix the arrival of platforms like Robinhood in US. They do not charge any commission if an individual buys shares. Record number of people signed up for Robinhood in US during lockdown.

Trivia: A lot of money used for betting online on sports is now landing in share markets via platforms like Robinhood. I am scared. Very Very scared.
download2live is offline   (3) Thanks
Old 2nd December 2020, 16:08   #51
BHPian
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: Chennai
Posts: 499
Thanked: 2,049 Times
Default Re: India is now officially in recession

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cessna182 View Post
Thanks for justifying the deaths of a few hundreds who walked home from other states to their homes in UP and Bihar. It is just a coincidence that every other country with similar population density managed it better. Of course, maths and numbers and logic don't matter in the new India. Scientists, economists, folks with some training in epidemiology etc also don't matter as long as we have our daily dose of propaganda to calm our nerves . Good day to you. India is booming and on the path to become the next vishwaguru. People talking about the destroyed jobs etc are living in a fool's paradise.

Please delete if inappropriate.
I have quoted stats, figures and data, you are the one who is not providing a single objective argument, and on top of that you seem to nurse a grudge against the "Northern States". For your information, the states of UP, Bihar and Rajasthan managed COVID far better than Kerala or Maharashtra. Again, stats speak here.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ABHI_1512 View Post
Glad to know of your views about the lockdown which ensured loss of lives, both actively and passively. Anyways, keeping the lockdown part aside, just some points that you have raised and kept it short under the ‘rationalisation’ word and about the reforms part:

Labour laws have been majorly diluted under the guise of reforms and the laws are now heavily against the folks working in factories, industries and other sectors. Sweeping exemptions from legal provisions aimed at protecting workers is not exactly a rational move, not certainly when such bills are passed forcefully under disguise and without any debates in the parliament.

Agricultural reforms as one would like to believe should have been welcomed, specially if the farmers are benefitting but that is not so, going by the protests across. Also, the talk about MSP is futile since MSP and procurement are effective for paddy and wheat only. Of course, we all want the farmers to benefit and not the middlemen. But reality is, it’s the middlemen who benefit the most and no government( state/centre) has been able to stop it.

I am quite surprised when you talk of reduction of informal economy through digitisation. It is well known that there is life outside the cities too !!

The reduction in corporate taxes was a huge disappointment and resulted in only revenue loss for the government. The steep cut from 30% to 22% was a regressive step and only resulted in steep loss without spurring any growth at all. So the rate cut was anything but ‘rationalisation’.

The less said about the GST roll out, the better. When everyone knows the hasty rollout was both ill timed and unnecessary, specially after the shock of demonetisation, I find it surprising that you think otherwise.

Not saying anything about the banks consolidation because at the end of it, it’s all about rationalisation.

While you say that it’s the most reform oriented government, the unemployment level was at the 45 year high before the pandemic. Reforms are nothing if they don’t bring you results and we all know the results.

Since some time now, we have been subjected to many rhetorics. One such rhetoric was that we will be an economic superpower by 2020. Now the goal post has shifted to 2024. We all will be happy to see our country grow and become the superpower but for that someone has to work diligently and not indulge in whataboutary all the time.

Recession is real and we all have been impacted in some way or the other. The first step in overcoming the situation is to admit that something is wrong and then work towards it. Just rhetoric doesn’t count and neither branding anyone who doesn’t agree to your views as being ignorant.

And yes, Jai Hind but regards as well.
A lot of misinfo here, will try and address them succintly,

1 - Labour laws : Having the strictest of labour laws on paper from 1950 has harmed us far more than helped us. To cirvumvent these sometimes absurd laws (requiring govt permission in writing for sacking employees?) companies have resorted to hiring "contract labour".

No laws but minimum wage laws apply to contract labour.

Per the Economic Survey of India 2018-19, 93% of India's labour is in the temporary or contract space.

https://www.indiabudget.gov.in/budge...c/echapter.pdf


Of the 7%, only 30% are unionised. Which basically means of the approx 300 Mn non agri workers, only 21 Million are "organised and of the 21 Million only 7 Million are in unions.

Or in other words, 280 Million workers are out of labour laws precisely because of how rigid and stupid they were.

Do you know how many labour law compliances firms had to meet?

Central Laws - 45
State laws - 1,223

Now we have 52 laws total (and even this is a bit too much)

Having a bureaucratic hell hole of 1250 laws creates creates a lot of corruption. How is rationalising this down to 50 bad?

How is creating laws that push more 'unorganised' labourers into the ambit of organised sector bad?

Agricultural reform - If fARmeRs are protesting, by that logic only farmers from Punjab and Haryana are protesting, so we can argue that it is a sound law and the rest of India support it?

How is allowing a farmer to sell to anyone anywhere, including supermarkets and grocery tech aggregators bad? Why is mandating a 14 day payment window clause bad? Why is taking payment delays out of courts (and the judicial logjam) and putting it with local collectors bad?

Should poor peasants wait 6 months to get payments, and if they don't, wait 10 years after filing a case in our courts?

The law works, we have already had cases of farmers selling to dealers from outside their state, and then getting their money within days of filing a plaint.

https://www.grainmart.in/news/farmer...-compensation/

Please show me a SINGLE and I mean SINGLE advanced economy and here I include China, that has progressed with rigid labour laws and a thriving informal sector.


ps - India Superpower 2020 was a book written by the Great Kalamji, I don't think anyone seriously thought India would be a superpower by 2020. Can we break into the top 3 economies and unseat Japan by 2045-50? Yes. Will it with certainty become the 4th largest by 2028-30? Yes. Will it become a middle middle income economy with a per capita GDP of around $ 7,500 in nominal terms by 2050? yes.

Last edited by Aditya : 6th December 2020 at 11:27. Reason: Rude bits deleted
Stribog is offline   (18) Thanks
Old 2nd December 2020, 16:40   #52
BHPian
 
OrangeCar's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2016
Location: Bengaluru
Posts: 215
Thanked: 1,153 Times
Default Re: India is now officially in recession

Moving away from debates of Lockdown - Short Notice - Hindsight; below article is scary.

Mint business tracker is noticing a slowdown in rate of recovery.

Source.

1. Indians are back at spending more time at home. Mobility rates are plummeting, especially at 6 large states (large in economic or GDP contribution terms). This especially so after Deepawali festival.

2. Electricity consumption is also plummeting.

3. Vehicle registrations have plummeted. Makes me wonder if dealer inventory has swollen given large volumes of wholesale numbers in Sept - Nov period. If inventory has indeed swollen, previous year models will be available Jan onwards. Which means discounts to push them during a low demand period. And will only cause more losses to dealers.

4. GST collections are also falling and has not matched last year's Nov collection.

One thing I wonder, if India's economy was on a strong footing before Covid, we perhaps could have taken this major jolt better. Unfortunately, our economy has seen a steady decline over the last three odd years, with FY 2019 ending at a growth rate of 4.2%

Below graph from CNBC TV-18 demonstrates our economic slide since pre-covid days.

Name:  slide graph.jpg
Views: 1103
Size:  61.4 KB
OrangeCar is offline   (2) Thanks
Old 2nd December 2020, 17:05   #53
Newbie
 
Join Date: Dec 2019
Location: Pune
Posts: 4
Thanked: 54 Times
Infractions: 0/1 (4)
Default Re: India is now officially in recession

Agriculture was the only sector not affected due to Covid, and now the govt is hell bent in screwing that too.

Guys, I echo the thoughts of almost all of you. India has lost its chance because of a severely incompetent leadership. We will never see the growth that we did from 1991 - 2014.

And yes, 'hamare jawan border pe khade hain, and you are worried about the economy? Shame on you'.

Last edited by GTO : 3rd December 2020 at 06:37. Reason: No discussion on politics or politicians please
TheCFDguy is offline   (29) Thanks
Old 2nd December 2020, 17:12   #54
BHPian
 
Join Date: May 2019
Location: Chennai
Posts: 116
Thanked: 181 Times
Default Re: India is now officially in recession

I think Covid19 had only made things worse, the economy which was slowly going down was pushed down vehemently after April2020. I see lot of people seeking job due to layoff. already there are fresh graduates from 2020, who could not seek employment, now there will another batch going out in next 3-4 months. I have known circle of graduates who were selected in campus and still not called for joining.

People offering sweets/gifts during the festival season in their business circle has come down to nil, just because they want to avoid unnecessary expenditure. I see TO-LET board hanging on lot of office space and houses.

Sharemarket can go to an all time high and the risk of it having a free fall cannot be denied.
.HEM is offline  
Old 2nd December 2020, 17:25   #55
BHPian
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: Chennai
Posts: 499
Thanked: 2,049 Times
Default Re: India is now officially in recession

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheCFDguy View Post
Agriculture was the only sector not affected due to Covid, and now the govt is hell bent in screwing that too.

And talk of priorities ... the PM, HM, several ministers, CM of UP etc... all had gone to Hyderabad to campaign for the municipal elections in the middle of all this mess. And what is their main selling point? That they'll change the name to Bhagyanagar.

Guys, I echo the thoughts of almost all of you. India has lost its chance because of a severely incompetent PM and his illiterate ministers. We will never see the growth that we did from 1991 - 2014. But still, there will be some who will justify everything in the name of this govt, and end it with 'Jai Hind'.

And yes, 'hamare jawan border pe khade hain, and you are worried about the economy? Shame on you'.
Can you please list 3 objective reasons why these farm reform bills will in your own eloquent words "screw it up"?

3, objective and clearly reasoned arguments. Not "govt bad, agriculture down, India dead"

That's called a polemical argument that indulges in FUD
Stribog is offline   (16) Thanks
Old 2nd December 2020, 17:36   #56
OmV
BHPian
 
Join Date: Jun 2017
Location: Mumbai
Posts: 34
Thanked: 43 Times
Default Re: India is now officially in recession

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cessna182 View Post
I was shocked by the recent vaccine cold storage contract being given to a Luxemborg company which is PE owned, has just 200 employees and 0 presence in Asia. Guess what, they got a contract to build plants in where else but Gujarat. Companies like Linde, Voltas which are experts at cold storage were not even contacted it seems. Oh well, new India.
Apparently this small 200 employee company was founded by the WHO and the temperature sensitive transport division spun off in 2015 to a PE firm.

It has been reported that the offer to assist India came from the Luxembourg PM during the Luxembourg - India Virtual summit and not any backroom deal. Yes, the fixation with Gujarat is evident again, but I like to think the state is more receptive to setting up industry.
I do not know if Voltas was contacted or not, nor do I know if Voltas works in this space - temperature controlled vaccine transport. (I would have liked to see an Indian company like Voltas be involved).
As the race for vaccines heats up, temperature controlled transport and storage will be key to ensure delivery across the country. (Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine needs to be stored at minus 70 Celsius).
OmV is offline   (1) Thanks
Old 2nd December 2020, 17:45   #57
BHPian
 
NiInJa's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: Pune
Posts: 796
Thanked: 2,009 Times
Default Re: India is now officially in recession

It is surprising to see so many posts just ranting about current government's so called incompetence by just making some overarching statements without putting any convincing data or facts.

It shouldn't have come as a surprise that India would go into recession, the same way my boss told me at the start of April that I shouldn't be surprised if I get a shocking news in the next few quarters.

I think the worst is past us. Covid vaccines will start rolling out in the next few months, people will start getting out and begin spending. Just to give you my example, I went to a restaurant, took a weekend trip to the coast after nine months and it felt like the pieces are falling back in place again. If things go well, I am planning a vacation abroad on the first opportunity ! Call me an idiot, but that is what I am going to do. I have different view on this entire situation: if you can spend some money which can help businesses, please do !

Some sectors are going to recover later (entertainment, travel), some might not recover at all (e.g. office cab business). The real test of the governments lies ahead when people have recovered from this shock and are ready to roll again.
NiInJa is offline   (4) Thanks
Old 2nd December 2020, 18:16   #58
BHPian
 
Join Date: Feb 2018
Location: Bengaluru
Posts: 58
Thanked: 79 Times
Default Re: India is now officially in recession

Guys, request- I feel the topic of this thread is inherently political, but let's keep the discussion as apolitical as possible. Let's just focus on the facts and numbers and our own experiences/thoughts centered around those.

Thanks.
vivek_lm is offline   (5) Thanks
Old 2nd December 2020, 18:30   #59
BHPian
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: Chennai
Posts: 499
Thanked: 2,049 Times
Default Re: India is now officially in recession

Quote:
Originally Posted by concorde24 View Post
This is the same question in my mind as well. I was thinking that with the quarterly results, we could see prolonged slump, but Stock has crossed Pre-March Highs. Recession and All-time-high do not seem to add up
Foreign Portfolio Investors's basically chase better returns - common sense as any entity (that is not some mafia lord making a movie to make a loss) will seek to maximise gains.

Foreign Direct Investors seek new markets and where the potential is higher, they invest, build operations or manufacturing plants (services vs manufacturing) and run businesses in the target country.

Now this pool of money in the FPI and FDI markets is limited as in, it is X sum of money distributed amongst a limited number of countries, with most countries only getting small fractional inflows. Like Pakistan's non BRI FDI is less than $ 2 Bn a year.

This money is super greedy as in it will abandon any market showing distress or lower returns for one that gives even nominally better returns - this is the flight of capital.

You are seeing record (FPI inflows hit $ 7.5 Bn in Nov alone with a whopping 4 Bn coming in over a matter of a week) FPI and FDI investments because,

1) FPI - money is fleeing markets like Brazil, Indonesia, Russia, South Africa and even advanced economies like S Korea and Taiwan.
2) There is excess liquidity in the investment markets

Combine 1 & 2 and FPI's are chasing markets where they project the highest returns (relative to the rest of the world) and India is a bright spot (all the Nay saying Cassandras predicting the death of the Indian economy aside)

2) FDI - Mostly it is Motabhai Ambani driving all this on his own, but green field FDI is also seeing an uptick. The PLI schemes in various industries from Pharma to electronics is also driving an increase in manufacturing FDI.

Apr - Aug 2020 though in the midst of the lockdown saw a record surge and recorded $ 36 Bn. Of this $ 20 Bn alone is Jio, but in the midst of a pandemic the Indian economy still managed to attract $ 16 Bn in FDI.

Broadly you can expect this trend to continue well into 2021. It is both a vicious and virtuous cycle - money sees money going in and it will follow (virtuous) and then 1 FPI will jump ship and all will follow (vicious).

This is of course a very, overly simplified view, but hope it helps explain the cognitive dissonance in an economy in recession vs stocks hitting all time highs.
Stribog is offline   (12) Thanks
Old 2nd December 2020, 19:13   #60
BHPian
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Nuremberg
Posts: 657
Thanked: 504 Times
Default Re: India is now officially in recession

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stribog View Post
If you can show me a SINGLE and I mean SINGLE advanced economy and here I include China, that has progressed with rigid labour laws and a thriving informal sector, I will donate Rs 1lakh to any charity of your choice (or your own individual bank account, no worries)
Germany. Oh boy it is just impossible for the company to get rid of an employee or labor until company proves financial problems or an employee wrongdoings. If they want to get rid of, company has to pay lot of amount proportional to the number of years in the company. I will be happy to take that option. Also Labor union is really strong here, company has to give minimum hike which is calculated by labor union. Lot of volks in IT industry also work through that labor contract.

Now shall I suggest you where to give 1 lakh charity or will you find yourself ?
sushantr5 is offline   (3) Thanks
Reply

Most Viewed
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Team-BHP.com
Proudly powered by E2E Networks