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Old 2nd December 2020, 19:19   #61
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Default Re: India is now officially in recession

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Originally Posted by Stribog View Post
Can you please list 3 objective reasons why these farm reform bills will in your own eloquent words "screw it up"?

3, objective and clearly reasoned arguments. Not "govt bad, agriculture down, India dead"

That's called a polemical argument that indulges in FUD
I am not a farmer so whatever I am mentioning here is based on what I can gather from various news outlets.

Their biggest concern is with the MSP.

No guarantee of MSP in the new laws. Farmers are at the mercy of buyers to honor a price they feel is right. Farmers feel they will not have a recourse if the buyers don't buy the produce at fair value.

In the current system, after price discovery in the APMC, they can choose to not sell to the licensed middle man and rather sell it to the Govt. at MSP. It may not be profitable but ensures they don't suffer losses.

With MSP gone, nobody stops a big corporation to dictate the price and even procure items at prices below MSP causing losses.

Bihar abolished APMC in 2006. After that, as against the MSP of ₹1,850 a quintal for maize, most farmers in Bihar reported selling their produce at less than ₹1,000 a quintal. Theoretically, yes, they could sell it to anyone outside at a price they see fit, the reality was different. Details here - https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lea...le32655181.ece

70%+ of our farmers are small to medium, who do not have enough produce to generate sustained profits. Most of them seem to just get by. None of them have any way to store the produce and wait for the market to give them a fair price. They have been largely dependent on MSP.

https://www.indiancooperative.com/co...inister-in-ls/

https://www.business-standard.com/ar...0901080_1.html

Last edited by Dry Ice : 2nd December 2020 at 19:21.
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Old 2nd December 2020, 19:21   #62
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Default Re: India is now officially in recession

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Originally Posted by sushantr5 View Post
Germany. Oh boy it is just impossible for the company to get rid of an employee or labor until company proves financial problems or an employee wrongdoings. If they want to get rid of, company has to pay lot of amount proportional to the number of years in the company. I will be happy to take that option. Also Labor union is really strong here, company has to give minimum hike which is calculated by labor union. Lot of volks in IT industry also work through that labor contract.

Now shall I suggest you where to give 1 lakh charity or will you find yourself ?
These labour laws did not exist in the period when Germany was industrialising. You are talking about post development stage. Every economy be it S Korea or Germany or Taiwan post reaching a high middle income stage introduced these laws.

Also does Germany has a thriving informal sector that doesn't pay taxes, and does everything off the record? Not in 150 years.
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Old 2nd December 2020, 19:28   #63
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Default Re: India is now officially in recession

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Originally Posted by Stribog View Post
A lot of misinfo here, will try and address them succintly,

These are facts, but if you are going to base your counter argument on an internet meme, that is entirely upon you.

edit - and not having the highest corporate tax on earth (of any large economy) was a surprise to you? Maybe you wish we go back to Indira Gandhi's 99% tax rate era as well in that case.
First things first, please mention which part of my comment has any misinformation so that I can come up with an explanation. Because, as far as I am concerned, I didn't find any. Would be helpful and I would categorically request the moderators to delete my post.

Secondly, since you have singularly mentioned only the labour laws and to a certain extent the agriculture reforms, I would think that you are in sync with what I have mentioned regarding the high unemployment, which kept rising since the last few years despite the most reform oriented government according to you.

Now, coming to the labour laws, however archaic they are, labour laws are meant for protecting the workers. Yes, you can argue about bringing changes but not diluting to such an extent that the very laws are counter productive to the very basis they are for !! If the authorities were so considerate for the working class, what was the need to change the labour law bills and pass them without any debate in the parliament ?? Since you mentioned facts, here are some links to read on :

https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-...le32663006.ece

This article by a retired Supreme Court judge is a nice read if one reads with an open mind.

https://www.newindianexpress.com/opi...l-2158931.html

This is another article which is contrary to what our authorities think and I would like to believe too.

https://www.livemint.com/companies/n...418004257.html

Also, the farmer protests are not restricted to Punjab and Haryana only as the authorities would like us to believe. Many unions have categorically said this and also refused to join the talks regarding this. If the farmer protests are so naive and misguided then how come one of the oldest ally of the ruling coalition withdrew their support over the farm bills ?


https://www.hindustantimes.com/india...V3bu8QluO.html

No where have I mentioned about the tax rates being high or less but stated only facts that the tax cuts have resulted in revenue loss for the government. The idea behind the tax cuts was to stimulate the economy since the corporates were expected to plough the savings back into the economy but that did not happen. This picking out lines to suit one's narrative is best avoided in the forum.

Also, the talk of superpower was about the economy part, my bad, I was not clear enough. The rhetoric of Five trillion economy is what I meant and certainly not the book by Dr. APJ Kalam, who by the way had hoped back during the start of the millenium that everyone will be above the poverty line in 2020( how misplaced he was unfortunately).

Facts don't need anybody's approval, they will always remain facts,no matter how much one tries to discredit. I am sorry for being so off topic but I am done replying here. Sticking to the recession part is important here in this thread since that's the official part and that is a fact.

Last edited by ABHI_1512 : 2nd December 2020 at 19:38.
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Old 2nd December 2020, 19:55   #64
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Default Re: India is now officially in recession

I saw in the news today "Health Secretary was saying that only Health workers and Security personnel will be given the vaccine as it will ensure breaking the chain of virus transmission" (and of course the VIP's as per my understanding).

I was just wondering if the larger population was administered the vaccine wouldnn't the whole exercise (Manpower, Logistics etc) contribute somewhat to the economy? just asking

cheers
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Old 2nd December 2020, 20:02   #65
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Originally Posted by Dry Ice View Post
...Their biggest concern is with the MSP.

No guarantee of MSP in the new laws. Farmers are at the mercy of buyers to honor a price they feel is right. Farmers feel they will not have a recourse if the buyers don't buy the produce at fair value.

In the current system, after price discovery in the APMC, they can choose to not sell to the licensed middle man and rather sell it to the Govt. at MSP. It may not be profitable but ensures they don't suffer losses.

With MSP gone, nobody stops a big corporation to dictate the price and even procure items at prices below MSP causing losses.
...
So much misinformation buddy

1. MSP: There is no mention of MSP in either of the three farm laws. The concept of MSP itself does not have any legislative basis, that is, MSP is not found in any law so how could the new laws have them either?
2. The Farm Bills technically have nothing to do with MSP and since there is no existing legislative framework for MSP, it makes no sense to mention MSP in them
3. The chief reason why Punjab farmers/ Govt. is protesting is because Punjab has the highest middlemen (or "farmers") who take produce from the actual farmers (in mandis) and sell it to businesses. With these state government mandis no longer necessary to sell the produce (earlier, as a farmer you couldn't sell at any other place except at these govt controlled mandis through these middlemen), an actual farmer is now free to sell his produce to any business without paying the 2.5% cut to the middlemen and the "mandi tax" to the govt. The new farm bill eliminates this earning for the state govt and the rich middlemen. Hence all this hoopla
4. The new farm bills have no proposal to do away with the system of MSP. In fact they don't even mention that. (PS: Though the govt fixes these MSPs, it is not legally bound to pay them)
5. Mostly these MSPs, if and when paid, are received by the middlemen, who take the produce from the actual farmer. So the middlemen gets MSP and the actual farmer gets whatever the middlemen pays him

Oh btw, the 2015 Shanta Kumar Committee found that only around 6% of farmers actually sell their crops at MSP rates.
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Old 2nd December 2020, 20:05   #66
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Default Re: India is now officially in recession

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Originally Posted by Stribog View Post
Can you please list 3 objective reasons why these farm reform bills will in your own eloquent words "screw it up"?
3, objective and clearly reasoned arguments. Not "govt bad, agriculture down, India dead"
That's called a polemical argument that indulges in FUD
When it comes to change there is only so much a society can assimilate at a time. That is why when there is a revolution there is much strife than when a society progresses slowly. When a group of people are accustomed to a way of dealing with things, introducing sweeping reforms are surely going to create strife.

I too feel that the provisions of the farm reform bill are good for the country. But the change it brings are too much for a regular farmer or a trader to comprehend.

That is why I am a supporter of less laws. Govts should not have been meddling with markets in the first place. Now when the govt chooses to withdraw, people who are used to the status quo starts complaining.
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Old 2nd December 2020, 20:27   #67
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Default Re: India is now officially in recession

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Originally Posted by ValarMorghulis View Post
So much misinformation buddy

1. MSP: There is no mention of MSP in either of the three farm laws. The concept of MSP itself does not have any legislative basis, that is, MSP is not found in any law so how could the new laws have them either?
2. The Farm Bills technically have nothing to do with MSP and since there is no existing legislative framework for MSP, it makes no sense to mention MSP in them
3. The chief reason why Punjab farmers/ Govt. is protesting is because Punjab has the highest middlemen (or "farmers") who take produce from the actual farmers (in mandis) and sell it to businesses. With these state government mandis no longer necessary to sell the produce (earlier, as a farmer you couldn't sell at any other place except at these govt controlled mandis through these middlemen), an actual farmer is now free to sell his produce to any business without paying the 2.5% cut to the middlemen and the "mandi tax" to the govt. The new farm bill eliminates this earning for the state govt and the rich middlemen. Hence all this hoopla
4. The new farm bills have no proposal to do away with the system of MSP. In fact they don't even mention that. (PS: Though the govt fixes these MSPs, it is not legally bound to pay them)
5. Mostly these MSPs, if and when paid, are received by the middlemen, who take the produce from the actual farmer. So the middlemen gets MSP and the actual farmer gets whatever the middlemen pays him

Oh btw, the 2015 Shanta Kumar Committee found that only around 6% of farmers actually sell their crops at MSP rates.
I know the previous laws do not have a defined MSP for any crop (other than possibly sugarcane, which is governed by a totally different structure).

However, successive Govts have procured essential grains at MSP for various purposes (PDS etc.).

The CACP a few years back (18-19 I believe) did recommend a framework to legalise the MSP, but sadly it wasn't picked up.

The whole issue is that farmers don't seem to trust the Govt. After eliminating these state APMCs, will the Govt. continue to procure the produce at MSP? In the absence of any clear guidelines, this grey area is making them nervous.

They see this as a safety net of sorts so corporations do not exploit the farmers by paying unfairly. This exact scenario has already played out in Bihar since 2006, I mentioned about it in the previous post. So, I would not dismiss their claims aside by saying these protests are localised or ill motivated, foreign funded etc.

Reg middlemen - I have no personal experience of dealing with them, but from what the farmers are saying to the news reporters, they are happy to provide a fee to these people in exchange of all the services they receive - transportation, packaging, price negotiation etc.

Agriculture is a big part of our economy and a huge number of people depend on it. So in some way, it will decide the future of a large population of our nation.
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Old 2nd December 2020, 20:53   #68
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Default Re: India is now officially in recession

About farmers and the new bills, Just give an ear to farmers instead of city-dwelling armchair experts or news anchors with no clue about the situation. It's not like we farmers are all naive, illiterate/poorly educated or challenged so as to not understand the impact of the new bills on our livelihoods. No one's taking us for any more rides. Enough is enough.
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Old 2nd December 2020, 20:55   #69
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Default Re: India is now officially in recession

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dry Ice View Post
...The whole issue is that farmers don't seem to trust the Govt.
The whole issue is that the Punjab state govt and the middlemen mafia is afraid to lose their cut/ earning from the actual farmers.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dry Ice View Post
... In the absence of any clear guidelines, this grey area is making them nervous.
There is no mandate for the govt to buy on MSP today either. The farmers aren't getting nervous, the middlemen who classify themselves as farmers are

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dry Ice View Post
...They see this as a safety net of sorts so corporations do not exploit the farmers by paying unfairly. This exact scenario has already played out in Bihar since 2006, I mentioned about it in the previous post. So, I would not dismiss their claims aside by saying these protests are localised or ill motivated, foreign funded etc.
Then this safety net is not going anywhere is it? The new laws do not do away with MSP (how can they, they don't mention a non-legal thing). SO why the mess?
As for motivated claims? Oh yes, they are motivated ones by the rich middlemen and the state govt.
As for the case with Bihar, yes that's true and correct but then that is a case of collusion. That can be done by anyone anywhere. A sparrow does not a summer make

To summarize:
1. New farm bills eliminate the money to be paid to middlemen and state govt by the farmers
2. MSP hasn't been touched or modified
3. It gives the opportunity for farmers to sell their produce to the highest bidder

Are the new farm laws all milk & honey? Nope
Are they better than the existing system? Yes
Is it going to help the actual farmers? Yes
Is it going to hurt the middlemen and the state govt coffers? Yes
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Old 2nd December 2020, 21:06   #70
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Default Re: India is now officially in recession

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Originally Posted by jalex77 View Post
About farmers and the new bills, Just give an ear to farmers instead of city-dwelling armchair experts or news anchors with no clue about the situation. It's not like we farmers are all naive, illiterate/poorly educated or challenged so as to not understand the impact of the new bills on our livelihoods. No one's taking us for any more rides. Enough is enough.
Great advice. Talk to farmers across the country, not just the rich ones in Punjab and Haryana.
Talk to ones in Bihar, UP, MP, KA, TN, heck the rest of the country.

And oh, Bhartiya Kisan Union (the one representing the farmers) prepared a manifesto in 2019 which had this exact line:
The farmers' manifesto for Freedom calls for:
3. Enabling trade and commerce by abolishing laws such as Agriculture Produce Marketing Committees (APMC)
4. Elimination of ad hoc and arbitrary restrictions on trade

The new farm laws do just that
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Old 2nd December 2020, 21:31   #71
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Originally Posted by ValarMorghulis View Post
Great advice. Talk to farmers across the country, not just the rich ones in Punjab and Haryana.
Talk to ones in Bihar, UP, MP, KA, TN, heck the rest of the country.

And oh, Bhartiya Kisan Union (the one representing the farmers) prepared a manifesto in 2019 which had this exact line:
The farmers' manifesto for Freedom calls for:
3. Enabling trade and commerce by abolishing laws such as Agriculture Produce Marketing Committees (APMC)
4. Elimination of ad hoc and arbitrary restrictions on trade

The new farm laws do just that
For your info, I am a farmer.
Then it's not just farmers from Punjab or Haryana, And good to see privileged folks now agree that there are farmers from Punjab and Haryana. Thank you.
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Old 2nd December 2020, 21:33   #72
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Originally Posted by ValarMorghulis View Post
The whole issue is that the Punjab state govt and the middlemen mafia is afraid to lose their cut/ earning from the actual farmers.
Since you have a good grasp of PB ground realities, please help us understand what will the middlemen gain if Govt adds a MSP clause in the new laws?

I, for one, don't think these are middlemen. Most of them are small to medium farmers who can see what is ahead of them. I would much rather take their word for it.

And like I said previously the HR, PB farmers don't seem to specifically have a problem with these "middlemen" that the urban india and govt is so worried about.

Quote:
Then this safety net is not going anywhere is it? The new laws do not do away with MSP (how can they, they don't mention a non-legal thing). SO why the mess?
The new laws do away with the concept of APMC - where the Govt procures at MSP. Even now, a lot of trade happens outside the APMC but not below the MSP as the farmer can always sell there.

Further, MSP has been a big talking point for the current dispensation. Farmers are not wrong in expecting this to be legalised and made part of the law if intention is to help the farmer.

MSP related poll promise from 2014 - https://www.business-standard.com/ar...2300494_1.html

Quote:
As for motivated claims? Oh yes, they are motivated ones by the rich middlemen and the state govt.
I would not be so sure. I am still not convinced this is a ploy to gain political mileage. The farmers have categorically distanced themselves from all political parties.

Quote:
As for the case with Bihar, yes that's true and correct but then that is a case of collusion. That can be done by anyone anywhere. A sparrow does not a summer make
It's simple to see, whoever has might wins. Farmer with no storage cannot risk his crop going waste. So he sells at his production cost or maybe lower, he has practically no pricing power in the grand scheme of things. The buyer can wait, or find some other desperate farmer.

Quote:
To summarize:
1. New farm bills eliminate the money to be paid to middlemen and state govt by the farmers
2. MSP hasn't been touched or modified
3. It gives the opportunity for farmers to sell their produce to the highest bidder

Are the new farm laws all milk & honey? Nope
Are they better than the existing system? Yes
Is it going to help the actual farmers? Yes
Is it going to hurt the middlemen and the state govt coffers? Yes
Again, I would urge you not conclude based on what you feel is right. Give the farmers a ear, they know best about what is right for them.

If not, l am happy to agree to disagree
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Old 2nd December 2020, 21:41   #73
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This is true for most of western Europe. They need to provide a minimum hike based on inflation numbers from govt. Even when firing, it is based on age, marital status, etc.
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Old 2nd December 2020, 22:04   #74
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Originally Posted by Dry Ice View Post
Reg middlemen - I have no personal experience of dealing with them, but from what the farmers are saying to the news reporters, they are happy to provide a fee to these people in exchange of all the services they receive - transportation, packaging, price negotiation etc.
Middle men are bad. They take away a bulk of the profits. It is better to get rid of them. So the move is to replace the middle men with, er other middle men, but good ones. Like the friends of the farmers called Ambani and Adani.

The provisions of the bill are not bad per se, but it is clearly geared to benefit Modiji's friends. Farmers and middle men are just the collateral.
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Old 2nd December 2020, 22:05   #75
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Default Re: India is now officially in recession

In one corner we are arguing about recession and economy in doldrums.

While in other corner prices of real estate and vehicles are increasing like no tomorrow. Is it a bubble waiting to be burst? Or am I missing something?
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