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Old 20th April 2021, 22:24   #46
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Re: Covid-19 pushes India’s Middle Class toward poverty | Job losses & business closures

It's a complex affair to understand the economics of country and the levers that run it. Not sure if the ones taking decisions and ones who are part of advisory are taking these complexities into account betore implying it to the masses.
What we did is copy the west when it came to tackling Covid in initial phases. Whereas what we needed is a strategy that works for our system, our states, our cities, our villages and our economy that is build up on large number of micro businesses and unaccounted cash flows. I don't think APAC countries like Vietnam took such measures of strict lockdowns.

On the main topic, Covid 19 is a learning for us, if not the government, to prepare ourself for similar or worst situation going forward.

Hoping for things to normalize.

Voicing it over in IT terms, its time to re-evaluate our Business Continuity Plan (BCP) and have a solid Disaster Recovery (DR) that first applies to us, then our families, communities and subsequent larger groups (if that's possible).
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Old 21st April 2021, 07:47   #47
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Re: Covid-19 pushes India’s Middle Class toward poverty | Job losses & business closures

Quote:
Originally Posted by v1p3r View Post
Now this situation affects us, in our upper-middle class, English-speaking, internet-surfing, WFH privilege. It was obvious to anyone who wasn't either blind or mentally underdeveloped that the economy was still precariously balanced.
Very well written post. Not many want to accept the below fact.

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Originally Posted by VKumar View Post
Never forget, it is Economy, and it is a circle. When consumption expenditure goes down, government revenues go down with it, hence taxes go up - inflation goes up, when inflation goes up, then value of everyone's money gets eroded, when the value of money gets eroded, cost of production and services goes up, when this cost goes up - companies start cutting costs. So, nobody is immune; hence I say, it's better if things get back on track asap, because the domino effect in economy is something that nobody would want to witness.
I'll go so far to say that it's not enough if one's state or country is doing great wrt the economy. It's such a globalised economy that if consumption drops in large countries like India, then the ramifications are indeed global.

Also, COVID-19 wasn't the trigger or ONLY thing for the current economic situation. It only accelerated what was an impending disaster for many years.

The below article shows the other important trend,

https://au.news.yahoo.com/covid-acce...231944746.html

More recently, a Global Wealth Migration Review report revealed that nearly 5,000 millionaires, or 2% of the total number of high net-worth individuals in India left the country in 2020 alone. And Indians topped a list compiled by the London-headquartered global citizenship and residence advisory Henley & Partners (H&P), of those seeking citizenship or residency in other countries in return for monetary investments.


Covid-19 has been a big driver of what was an ongoing trend of wealthy Indians seeking to "globalise their lives and assets" according to H&P. So much so that the firm set up its office in India in the middle of the lockdown last year to cater to growing demand.


"I think they [clients] are realising they don't want to wait for the second or third wave of the pandemic. They want to have their papers now that they are sitting at home. We refer to this as the insurance policy or Plan B," Dominic Volek, Group Head of Private at Henley & Partners told the BBC on a video call from Dubai.


Quote:
Originally Posted by GTO View Post
One of my commercial lessees was an ambitious entrepreneur running computer / IT training classes. He used to teach coding, security, server management etc. Was with us since 15 years and had bought a Mobilio in its final production year. Fellow emptied my premises last year because students simply weren't willing to come back to a physical class and all the action had moved to online training. The trouble for him was, at our place, he had a fantastic location. That was a USP. Online, the competition is way too much for a newbie to stand out.

One year down, that property is still empty. Still haven't found a good + reliable person I'd want to rent it to.
Sorry to know about the situation of the lessee and the lessor. I hear similar stories from many people. A number of folks have lost their second source of income which was rental earnings from residential or commercial properties. The plight of folks who don't have an outstanding mortgage on these properties is much better than those who are paying EMIs on properties that don't earn them any income.

I never understood the logic of taking a 10% interest home loan for 15 years to purchase an apartment with minuscule UDS and then claim that the rent will take care of everything and the assumption that the property will be valued at x times more after fifteen years.

I'll close my rant on a positive note though. Back in early Q4 2020 my tenant wanted a small drop in rent for three months due to change in their financial circumstances. Too easy since I value their support to my parents (because they are all in the same lot) more than the moneys.

Two months later they informed me that their situation has returned back to normalcy and can pay the original rent with immediate effect. I declined the offer and said our deal was valid for three months as agreed and we can get back to the full rent from the fourth month.

The world is a better place because of people like my tenant who have the highest levels of integrity and honesty. If only the so called leaders can have 1% of this.

Last edited by kiku007 : 21st April 2021 at 07:55.
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Old 21st April 2021, 09:00   #48
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Re: Covid-19 pushes India’s Middle Class toward poverty | Job losses & business closures

We were already living in strange times now the pandemic hit world has shown it's true colors. At a time when we are privatizing every bit of last jobs available in the public sector which provide job security & fundamental infrastructure for the Nation yet we heard no voices raised. Our Public healthcare is ailing thus a lot more strain on Private healthcare infrastructure which was already debt struck similarly there was an issue of average age of staff in public sector which were the frontline workers while Nation's population having an average age of 25 years.

More recruitment of youths might have ensured a stringent & apt workforce keeping us prepared for the second wave as many of the workforce in public sector have been made exempted due to diabetes & age. We saw the migrant labour crisis similarly we saw the most stringent lockdowns which only worsened the situation for smaller businesses. At these times, we only can hope & pray for the safety of all. Staying in touch with our known friends & relatives, community members, society so we can help as many as one can in terms of any help they need.
I request all members to share numbers of known NGO's/individuals who are working to provide ration/financial aid/healthcare aid/oxygen/medicines in our cities so that anyone in this beautiful community requiring the same can avail. We all are in this together helping each other staying safe is the priority.

Last edited by Sheel : 21st April 2021 at 09:44. Reason: Spaced out the post for better readability. Thanks.
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Old 21st April 2021, 09:19   #49
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Re: Covid-19 pushes India’s Middle Class toward poverty | Job losses & business closures

Quote:
Originally Posted by kiku007 View Post
Very well written post. Not many want to accept the below fact.

I never understood the logic of taking a 10% interest home loan for 15 years to purchase an apartment with minuscule UDS and then claim that the rent will take care of everything and the assumption that the property will be valued at x times more after fifteen years.
It's the emotion attached with "Apna Ghar" and sometimes the passive aggression by the "other half" that forces many to take loans at higher interest and buy apartments/houses with less probability of a favourable return on investment. Think about it logically and many will realise that there are better ways to invest and eventually own the dream house with savings/return from investments. But then, to each their own !

I hope government is going to work on overdrive to make sure economic cycle gets back to normalcy once the current wave of Covid infections are under control. Else beyond the monetary loss we will be dealing with a huge set of population demotivated, dejected, struggling to get out of depression and mental health issues.
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Old 21st April 2021, 09:39   #50
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Re: Covid-19 pushes India’s Middle Class toward poverty | Job losses & business closures

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Originally Posted by poloman View Post
Which ever Govt does it for saving life. I support the same.
I'm sure even those of us who don't support lockdowns also completely support saving lives. Just because someone opposes a lockdown doesn't mean they don't care about other people's lives. Why does everything have to be reduced to a binary/absolute opposing argument?

It's just that it's hard when you see the same government AND opposition parties/state governments, basically all politicians, allowing mass religious gatherings and even leading election rallies while setting restrictions for other things that affect livelihoods and lives too. Does the coronavirus spread only in certain cities at night? Does it not spread where thousands of people gather?

Or should we all just blindly support anything that politicians say and ignore what they do?

Quote:
Originally Posted by poloman View Post
What ever we do the pandemic will run its course.
That is proving to be the case, completely agree with you on this.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Spaced Out View Post
My interpretation of the Great Leaders speech yesterday.
Buddy, I get your frustration, but this doesn't help. It's more than just one politician or one party that's responsible. This sort of post will only push the discussion away from the topic into pro-vs-against govt/opposition/political party and that will never get anywhere.

Last edited by am1m : 21st April 2021 at 09:51.
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Old 21st April 2021, 09:49   #51
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Re: Covid-19 pushes India’s Middle Class toward poverty | Job losses & business closures

Glad that these venting threads exist. Else the anger and frustration would have been targeted elsewhere.
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Old 21st April 2021, 10:09   #52
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Re: Covid-19 pushes India’s Middle Class toward poverty | Job losses & business closures

Quote:
Originally Posted by kiku007 View Post
The world is a better place because of people like my tenant who have the highest levels of integrity and honesty. If only the so called leaders can have 1% of this.
It is also a better place because of decent human beings like yourself. Take a bow. Or maybe, stand for election!
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Old 21st April 2021, 10:10   #53
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Re: Covid-19 pushes India’s Middle Class toward poverty | Job losses & business closures

Have you guys heard of the term 'revenge travel'? I came to know if it sometimes end of 2020 when I had articles from some esteemed publications in India pop up in my feed. It went something like that people are so frustrated sitting at home that they are throwing all caution to the winds and want to enjoy themselves (OK. I am dramatizing a little).

One of our family friends spent their whole winter in Goa since 'it's WFH for the hubby and kids are also doing online classes' (Not judging. We were also jealous and tempted to do something similar though we could not because we live with our parents). Another of my friend, who works in an IT company in Bangalore, was cocooned in his home town of Dehradun all through Covid but in Feb-March decided to go back to Bangalore because 'he was getting bored and had nothing to do in Dehradun'.

There are a couple other examples I know in my friends/colleagues circle who went vacationing the first chance they got in last 6 months or so. My question is, why do you blame the govt. then when something bad happens? The health systems in rich and developed European countries also could not cope up with the numbers. Don't you realize we are a poor/developing country despite the fact that some of us can afford foreign vacations and big 3 Germans?
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Old 21st April 2021, 10:13   #54
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Re: Covid-19 pushes India’s Middle Class toward poverty | Job losses & business closures

Some points from my side ( a bit contradictory though) ->

1) IT companies - people are jumping with insane increments. A lot of folks in my inner circle who are in IT have quit their companies having at least a couple of job offers between a 10 to 40 per cent hike. Again some of them have good skills.

2) Real Estate prices especially land (not apartments) has not come down (in fact increased) anywhere in Bengaluru (BBMP areas). My friend is trying to invest in some plots to save the capital gains tax for his previously sold apartment.

3) At least in Bengaluru, the restaurants are still charging higher for the food than what was earlier. And to add on top of that, Swiggy charges a big amount too.


I do accept that this might not be the case in many other sectors. The various governments could have done things differently, however, the major blame is on people who have taken an extremely casual attitude of not following any social etiquette like not wearing masks, attending large gatherings etc.
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Old 21st April 2021, 10:29   #55
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Re: Covid-19 pushes India’s Middle Class toward poverty | Job losses & business closures

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Originally Posted by am1m View Post
Buddy, I get your frustration, but this doesn't help. It's more than just one politician or one party that's responsible. This sort of post will only push the discussion away from the topic into pro-vs-against govt/opposition/political party and that will never get anywhere.
My post was more in the tone of irony & satire but I get your point. The forum’s mods did not approve as well - which is their privilege.

I will leave this food for thought - power in India is reflected in how you abuse it.

For instance, can you get by without paying fees at Toll booths? Can your nephew get Covid vaccine even if not eligible for it? Can you park in the middle of the road because you are a District Magistrate?

What is the consequence:

Most Indians look at this and aspire to reach a position where they can also exercise power (ie rules don’t apply to me) aka Jaante ho mein kaun hoon?

And this also normalizes all the little abuses of power we do in daily life. My own South Delhi housing society pays off the lineman to connect our Diwali lighting to the street lighting grid.

The eventual outcome:

the state and most Indians will then argue that the average Indian does not like to follow the law. So all will appreciate Police treating us like children (mask in car even if you are alone) because we all can agree that we don’t like to follow rules.

This is not a political debate. What leaders do and say matter - specially when you have a once in a generation public communicator like Modi.

My post may have been satirical in tone but the truth remains.
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Old 21st April 2021, 10:37   #56
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Re: Covid-19 pushes India’s Middle Class toward poverty | Job losses & business closures

Indeed we are all living through a crazy period. Here's wishing for everyone to keep a sane head and ride this through.

Reading this thread I'm confused as to whether I should cancel my mutual fund SIPs and let the money accumulate in the savings account for now? How are you guys managing your finances during this time?
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Old 21st April 2021, 10:39   #57
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Re: Covid-19 pushes India’s Middle Class toward poverty | Job losses & business closures

In light of the current situation where humans are dying left, right and center, important examinations are getting cancelled/postponed, livelihoods lost - can the political party agnostic entities like the Election Commission and The Supreme Court not take some tough but necessary calls?

Can the EC not postpone the elections for later or can the SC not direct the Kumbh Mela to wrap up.

Are these more important than human lives, careers and humanity?
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Old 21st April 2021, 11:15   #58
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Re: Covid-19 pushes India’s Middle Class toward poverty | Job losses & business closures

The pandemic is a force of nature and it is going to run its course. I agree that the second wave is a major upset to our fragile and underfunded public health system. However it is not possible to confine a population of 1.4 billion to their homes whatever the repercussions. Another point to be noted is that election rallies and religious festivals are a source of income to a large number of people as well as businesses. For instance in Kerala 70 percent of political rally attendees are given 500 INR and food to attend a political rally. This is livelihood too is n` it?
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Old 21st April 2021, 11:20   #59
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Re: Covid-19 pushes India’s Middle Class toward poverty | Job losses & business closures

Like all catastrophies even COVID has presented opportunities to some who were ready and this is a very small percentage.

For middle class the opportunity was to
1. invest in Stock Market which crashed by 40% a situation which happens about once in 10 years.

2. Look at investing in apartment. This is potential opportunity for those who do not own a house of their own. Real Estate was already down with huge inventory and no demand. Time to push the negotiation hard

Again this is not investment but an opportunity to own a house in big cities. eg. Rent in Ghaziabad for 2 BHK in Tower is approx. Rs 16000 all inclusive. Have added Rs 10000 more and purchased an apartment instead.

Our elders have always advocated savings for tough times and who ever has done that will be more assured.

It is law of nature that bad times pass like good times and hence this too shall pass.

However it helps if remembers above and prepares of bad times like the story of Ant and Grass hopper.
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Old 21st April 2021, 11:22   #60
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Re: Covid-19 pushes India’s Middle Class toward poverty | Job losses & business closures

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Originally Posted by Slipstream11 View Post
Are these more important than human lives, careers and humanity?
Because of the way we have multiplied in numbers post-independence, human life has become the least valuable commodity in our country. We would have ended in this mess one day or the other, covid just accelerated it.
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