[dragracer567]

Originally Posted by Gansan

If Russia is losing men and hardware in huge numbers, and Ukraine is losing scant numbers, that must mean the Ukrainians are winning the war. Then why is Russia gaining territory slowly but steadily?

No one said Ukrainians are losing scant numbers. But the difference is, Ukrainians are fighting for survival while Russia is fighting for ego. So, how exactly will you justify these loses to the Russian public?

Also, it’s funny that pro- Russian folks just want to question the numbers on Russian and Ukrainian hardware loses when there is a simpler explanation that Ukraine has less hardware to lose in the first place.

[iTNerd]

Originally Posted by dragracer567

Great to see good people standing up to Putin but I wonder what would be the consequences of this post. In a democratic country, you would probably get fired but what happens in Russia?

The consequence is obvious - somewhere in the very near future in some European city, he will probably be hospitalized due to some radioactive poisoning or exposure, and finally, to a slow and painful dead. In short, he (Russian) who dare to oppose and speaks out against Putin is signing his/her own death warrant. That's why we find very few Russians opposing the state policy.

[dragracer567]

If I may try to bridge the gap a little bit, given the contentious nature of this thread, I came across the following news article:

Chinese, Russian Fighter Jets Flew Near Japan Airspace As Quad Met


Chinese and Russian fighter jets carried out joint flights near Japan on Tuesday as leaders of the Quad bloc met in Tokyo, the Japanese defence minister said.
Nobuo Kishi said the government had expressed "grave concerns" to Russia and China over the flights, which took place while leaders from the United States, India, Australia and Japan held talks on regional security.

The planes did not breach territorial airspace, the defence ministry told AFP, and it is the fourth time since November that long-distance joint flights by Russia and China have been spotted near Japan.

"Two Chinese bombers joined two Russian bombers in the Sea of Japan and made a joint flight to the East China Sea," Kishi told reporters.

"After that, a total of four aircraft, two presumed (new) Chinese bombers -- which replaced the two Chinese bombers -- and two Russian bombers, conducted a joint flight from the East China Sea to the Pacific Ocean."

He said a Russian intelligence-gathering aircraft also flew off northern Hokkaido to the Noto Peninsula in central Japan on Tuesday, calling the moves especially "provocative" given the summit in Tokyo.

The Quad leaders on Tuesday warned against attempts to "change the status quo by force", although they avoided direct references to Russia or China in a joint statement.

Now, this is nothing new since Chinese and Russian aircraft regularly fly close to Japan and there is nothing wrong with this either - none of the aircraft violated Japanese airspace and US military aircraft also regularly conduct such exercises near Russia and China. But what caught my eye was the symbolism of this. Here we have India participating in a landmark summit with western bloc countries while Russia who has probably been independent India's closest ally ever is on the opposing side sending aircraft to intimidate this summit along with China - possibly India's greatest threat. The great common dream of Indian and Russian policymakers in the 2010s for a multi-polar world which gave birth to ideas like BRICS has fallen apart and we are back to the bipolar world of the cold war with India and Russia inadvertently ending up in opposing teams. That said, I really hope our relationship with Russia stays atleast to ensure some stability in this world. As a Russian saying goes: "An old friend is better than 2 new ones".

[Sran]

Originally Posted by dragracer567

But what caught my eye was the symbolism of this. Here we have India participating in a landmark summit with western bloc countries while Russia who has probably been independent India's closest ally ever is on the opposing side sending aircraft to intimidate this summit along with China - possibly India's greatest threat. As a Russian saying goes: "An old friend is better than 2 new ones".

Putin ain't an idiot. With China-Russia territorial dispute, it will hard for Russia to trust China. India is a sort of power balancer in regards to China. Weak China is also good for Russia, because all Russia needs is chinese consumer market for its natural resources. Russia is also very wary of dumping by China which is detrimental for her. Not to say Russia hasn't flirted with Pakistan in last couple of years. This war must have taught her enough about the soft power India has. India can easily dump Russia and west will easily satisfy India's need. The problem is America, being a friend of USA is not easy because they deal from a position of power instead of equality.

Moreover, nobody except Pakistan is dumb enough to take on India in a conventional war. This is why they try hands at hybrid warfare compromising essentially of in-grown operatives and misinformation.

[turbo_delight]

USD - Ruble chart : Strengthening Ruble against USD




USD - Euro chart : Weakening Euro against Dollar



Looks like Sanctions are biting Europe more than Russia.

[V.Narayan]

Originally Posted by turbo_delight

USD - Ruble chart : Strengthening Ruble against USD

Attachment 2312631


USD - Euro chart : Weakening Euro against Dollar

Attachment 2312632

Looks like Sanctions are biting Europe more than Russia.

Dear @turbo_delight, Thank you for sharing this. It is not unusual for non-Treasury people (and worse journalists) to assume a drop in exchange rate to be a sign of weakness and an increase to be a sign of economic strength.

All,

Every G20 currency in the world including the Euro is weakening against the US$ for last 7 weeks as capital moves to strength and safety. It has occurred in every crises since 1945 even the ones created by the US! This lowering of currency rates does not necessarily reflect a weakening of those 20 economies. Currency rate and economy are two different things. The strength of a currency is reflected in stability not actual exchange rate. The INR has dropped vs the $ despite the fact that the IMF is calling India out to be the fastest growing major economy in 2022-23. The INR at 77 does not make India weak. The Russian Ruble at 56 however is a killer for Russian exports. In the first week of January the Ruble was at 74 to the $ and now it is 56. Only journalists can call that strengthening. That kind of jump is like saying my heart rate at age 62 is 220 yipee I'm so strong. Instead its a sign of a heart going into fibrillation.

At 56 to the $ the Ruble is one third more expensive in 5 months - not stronger but more expensive. Unless in the Russian economy, quality of exports, depth of technology, value of export services have miraculously improved by one-third in 5 months they are facing a situation of unsustainable exports. Putin has priced their economy for manufactured goods out of the world markets.

Think of what would happen in India if the INR overnight went to say 58 to the $ - IT exports would get priced out completely, India's $400 billion export industry would shut down overnight, all BHPIans in the IT sector would lose their jobs, it would become so cheap to import everything that local manufacturers will go bust and so on and so forth. But some daft journalist will say we now we have a strong rupee. What would happen in India is similar to what is likely happening in Russia right now. Economies are not designed to run at an overnight 33% increase in currency cost any more than our ICE cars can run in an ambient temperature of 75 degrees centigrade. Currency rates, interest rates are like the ambient temperature in economics - they are omnipresent and the same for all.

The Ruble's price has climbed vs other currencies due to a temporary mismatch in supply and demand caused by the politics of the war. That higher price is not a reflection in the least bit of the Russian economy but the need for buyers of Russian goods to settle their existing dues in Rubles. Whether countries will buy more goods 6 months from now is to be seen. A truer picture of the Ruble will start emerging around August after the long credit trade payables have also been settled. I can bet my last paisa that major buyers of Russia's commodity products will be buying at fire sale prices in 6 months if this war drags on. A more accurate indicator of the Russian economy and its expected future is the Russian stock index which has fallen from 4238 in October'21 to 2311 yesterday. That is like the Bombay Sensex going from a 59,000 range to a 32,000 range.

[Captain Slow]

Originally Posted by turbo_delight

USD - Ruble chart : Strengthening Ruble against USD



Looks like Sanctions are biting Europe more than Russia.

Guess who benefits from all this

[download2live]

Do I read a slight change in sentiments in the coverage of war in Aljzeera and Guardian? Somehow stories are getting leaked in on the Russians taking "some" places. Is West changing tactics? Or is the job done?

Meanwhile Russians are willing to negotiate on passage to ships in exchange of the lifting of some sanctions.

Meanwhile Kissinger has put the cat amongst the pigeons by stating that Ukraine should aim for status quo which was there before this war.

[sierrabravo98]

Originally Posted by dragracer567

If I may try to bridge the gap a little bit, given the contentious nature of this thread, I came across the following news article:



Now, this is nothing new since Chinese and Russian aircraft regularly fly close to Japan and there is nothing wrong with this either - none of the aircraft violated Japanese airspace and US military aircraft also regularly conduct such exercises near Russia and China. But what caught my eye was the symbolism of this. Here we have India participating in a landmark summit with western bloc countries while Russia who has probably been independent India's closest ally ever is on the opposing side sending aircraft to intimidate this summit along with China - possibly India's greatest threat. The great common dream of Indian and Russian policymakers in the 2010s for a multi-polar world which gave birth to ideas like BRICS has fallen apart and we are back to the bipolar world of the cold war with India and Russia inadvertently ending up in opposing teams. That said, I really hope our relationship with Russia stays atleast to ensure some stability in this world. As a Russian saying goes: "An old friend is better than 2 new ones".

I would not read too much into this aircraft flying/ship sailing/missile test business which seems to the staple go-to for any and every nation which wants to send any type of message these days. Do remember that just last year, the USS John Paul Jones conducted a FONOPS in India's EEZ and advertised it with a rather terse and belligerent statement. What message Washington DC wanted to send to New Delhi will probably be revealed in some bureaucrats memoirs 20-30 years down the line (if we are lucky) but this move was seen to be extremely provocative and senseless when seen in context of Quad and the Indo-Pacific approach of US towards India in general. As subsequent events have shown, nothing much came out of this and both sides brushed this incident under the carpet for the sake of the bigger picture.

We should not forget that perhaps Russia wanted to send a message to Japan too (which is a part of the Quad and has disputes with Russia regarding the Kuril Islands) along with US. My assessment that flypast was not intended for India is further bolstered when I see news that Indian companies are vying to occupy space left behind by the West (in Russia) in areas from FMCG to petroleum refining. IMHO, such developments are not possible without some political understanding at the highest levels.

[14000rpm]

Situation Update from Finland:

Lots of Military vehicles moving to the south and I presume east to the Russia border. We counted upto 80 different types of support vehicles including G Wagen based Ambulances on the Helsinki-Tampere highway. It is not unusual to see some of these vehicles moving around but the sight of Multiple Rocket Launcher trucks was not very settling.
Am I worried about this? No. Not yet. Will start to worry when my Finnish friends in my neighborhood, who are part of the conscript army, are summoned to report to their bases.

As for the NATO angle - Turkey is being opportunistic and playing dirty. Nothing surprising from Erdogan. Finland is therefore all the more dependent on its own Army + Conscripts for it's own defense. Hopefully the dust settles and we see clearly the damage we are all leaving behind to the next generations.

[Samurai]

Lex Friedman, an AI scientist (PhD) and grappler (BJJ) of Ukrainian-Jewish heritage interviews Oliver Stone. Very interesting interview, both are US citizens living in USA.

Oliver stone goes totally against the mainstream media opinion.

https://youtu.be/ygAqYC8JOQI

[shashanka]

Originally Posted by Samurai

Lex Friedman, an AI scientist (PhD) and grappler (BJJ) of Ukrainian-Jewish heritage interviews Oliver Stone. Very interesting interview, both are US citizens living in USA.

Oliver stone goes totally against the mainstream media opinion...

Not at all surprising. Oliver Stone has always walked to different distant drums. And has always been a person worth listening to.

[PaddleShifter]

Impact of the Russia-Ukraine war: EVs could have a faster push amid wiring harness supply issues.

The article is interesting and talks about a lot more stuff than the single aspect I have typed here. Do read it at your convenience.

https://indianexpress.com/article/te...-cars-7943609/

Wiring harness is a low profit part and much of the supply to almost all global car manufacturers comes from Ukraine. Most manufacturers are figuring out a way to overcome the wiring harness supply issue.

[Foxbat]

An Opinion piece in the New York Times with a lot of negative reader comments about the article but definitely a change in tune:




Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/31/o...putin-war.html

But the United States has helped turn this tragic, local and ambiguous conflict into a potential world conflagration. By misunderstanding the war’s logic, Mr. Guaino argues, the West, led by the Biden administration, is giving the conflict a momentum that may be impossible to stop.

He is right.

In 2014 the United States backed an uprising — in its final stages a violent uprising — against the legitimately elected Ukrainian government of Viktor Yanukovych, which was pro-Russian. (The corruption of Mr. Yanukovych’s government has been much adduced by the rebellion’s defenders, but corruption is a perennial Ukrainian problem, even today.)


In recent years, Russian control of Crimea has seemed to provide a stable regional arrangement: Russia’s European neighbors, at least, have let sleeping dogs lie.

But the United States never accepted the arrangement. On Nov. 10, 2021, the United States and Ukraine signed a “charter on strategic partnership” that called for Ukraine to join NATO, condemned “ongoing Russian aggression” and affirmed an “unwavering commitment” to the reintegration of Crimea into Ukraine.

That charter “convinced Russia that it must attack or be attacked,” Mr. Guaino wrote. “It is the ineluctable process of 1914 in all its terrifying purity.”


In this light, mockery of Russia’s battlefield performance is misplaced. Russia is not being stymied by a plucky agricultural country a third its size; it is holding its own, at least for now, against NATO’s advanced economic, cyber and battlefield weapons.

Thousands of Ukrainians have died who likely would not have if the United States had stood aside. That naturally may create among American policymakers a sense of moral and political obligation — to stay the course, to escalate the conflict, to match any excess.

[goacom]

The author is right, but for the opposite reasons. The fact is that the US and Europe in particular (aka Germany and France) did not provide Ukraine with sufficient military aid and thus effectively encouraged Russia to invade Ukraine. The west did the same when Russia invaded Georgia and the Crimea in the past. Instead of punishing Russia, they appeased it.
This appeasement continues even today. There was very little heavy equipment provided to Ukraine until a month ago.

Maybe that is all part of the plan - to draw Russia in so that it overly commits and depletes is resources. So long as the Ukrainians are willing to fight, the west will continue to supply it with weapons in drips so that it can continue to fight, while not enabling it to win. The US has more than enough advanced equipment that it could supply Ukraine today that could take out the Russian forces in a few months (schedule limited by training time). But that would be too overt. The aim is to gradually corrode the Russian economy and military so that it collapses from within, just as the USSR did in 1991. Of course, it could mean that Ukraine is severely destroyed in the process as well, but for the west, that would be an acceptable price to pay.

Originally Posted by Foxbat

An Opinion piece in the New York Times with a lot of negative reader comments about the article but definitely a change in tune: