[deetee]

USD raises to equal EURO, first time in two decades. Collateral impact of the war:

[Rahul Bhalgat]

This thread has grown long and I have read only a last few pages.

I have a question for everyone but especially for those who are bit more knowledgeable / have better insight into the international matters compared to common man.

I wonder, what is Putin's real intention behind this conflict? When I searched the internet, I found the results guessing why Putin wants to occupy / annex Ukraine partly or fully. But after more than 100 days of conflict, I have started to wonder if occupying Ukraine is really his end goal? Or is he after some (financial / political) non-military outcome of starting this war (and keeping it on), without caring for how much territory / control he wins?

Because, if Putin really decides, Russia definitely won't take 100+ days to win a substantial territory or establish control over Ukraine's decisions. Even after accounting for overvalued military equipment, men and management. If they want territory/ political control, it will never take so long in my view. And "Special military operation" isn't the only way out if they want political control / territory. Assassination, intrigue, coupe etc. are a few alternatives. Money power / blackmailing can also be used very effectively, to topple a Govt. you don't like (I am talking about "Russia - Ukraine", not India). When there are so many ways to control Ukraine's intentions of joining Nato, why a military operation?

And if it has to be a military operation, then why such (apparently) ill planned one with sub-optimal resources? Why not a clinical finish in 3-4 weeks, with perfect planning, good equipment, adequate intelligence, diplomatic preparation and best weapons? Afterall, Russia is attacking and not responding to an attack. So they had all the time to plan it meticulously.

Does continuing the conflict provide Putin more benefit compared to occupying / establishing control quickly and decisively? Request the members to express their views.

I am not at all an expert in the international matters, so please treat my query as one coming from a common man. I hope that the members will enlighten me (and everyone) with their perspective instead of passing any undue comments.

[mvadg]

Originally Posted by Rahul Bhalgat

I wonder, what is Putin's real intention behind this conflict?

https://www.team-bhp.com/forum/shift...ml#post5271297 (Impact of the Russia-Ukraine war)

"Perpetual war". And not just against the people of Ukraine, but notice what is happening to the entire world.

[thanixravindran]

Originally Posted by dragracer567

The EU's plan is to replace Russian gas with "The bloc’s proposed gas replacements by the end of 2022 – which include LNG (liquefied natural gas) diversification, renewables, heating efficiency, pipeline diversification, biomethane, solar rooftops and heat pumps". The EU has been negotiating deals with US, Azerbaijan, Egypt, Qatar and Israel for LNG diversification. I must admit that I have very low confidence that the EU can pull this off in 1.5 years, the EU is certainly rich enough to do this but they need to have the willpower and cohesion to pull this off. There will however be a boost in the adoption of renewables, so we have Putin to thank for the possibly expedited decarbonization of the European economy.

I got this basket of options they are planning and going to try, no questions about it but all of this sounds like politician talking to the electorate rather than a concrete plan. On LNG, I read about some super tankers (only few in the world) and floating terminals that sounded too preliminary to adopt in massive scale. And, efficiency improvements through standards etc is fine but they need a longer timeline. I still have not read about a break up of replacement areas and their share with plans of investment. Money wise, agree with you that Europe can pull it off. Hope we get a good share on this once in a lifetime opportunity along side China.

[lifeinpune]

Originally Posted by ankan.m.blr

Since this thread is on 'Impact of the Russia-Ukraine war', can anyone please enlighten whether this war has any direct or indirect impact on the ongoing crisis situation in Sri Lanka?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019...conomic_crisis

Offers some explanation. Seems to be largely a self made problem due to ill-advised economic policies. The Ukraine conflict seems to have made a bad situation worse in short span.

[Prowler]

Originally Posted by Rahul Bhalgat

I have a question for everyone but especially for those who are bit more knowledgeable / have better insight into the international matters compared to common man.

I wonder, what is Putin's real intention behind this conflict?

If you study history, you will notice one thing in common with most wars - one seemingly random incident triggering a powder keg. Eg. The assassination of Crown Price of Austria, Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo on June 28,1914 which ended up in World War I.

Putin had everything going for him before 24 Feb 2022:
1. NATO were bickering with each other and primarily resented the US.
2. Russia was completing the gas line feeding European countries and Russia remained as the single largest entity to supply gas and fuel to Europe.
3. The US has its own share of power politics with a perceptible soft democratic President.
4. Most people outside Europe never heard much about Ukraine.
5. Soviet Union and the current Russian Federation had built up a fabled narrative of powerful weapons and is one of the most popular weapon suppliers to dozens of countries including India.
6. Every one thought the invasion of Ukraine would be a cake walk for Russia.
7. Ukraine had returned the nuclear weapons it had under a treat with Russia when the Soviet Union collapsed. It has no credible armed forces and no navy. It had the same level of corruption pervading Russia.

So Putin plunged into Ukraine ostensibly to denazify Ukraine and protect the Russians in east Ukraine and to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO on 24-2-2022.

But Putin and the rest of the world never counted on 2 things:
1. Zelensky : He rallied his people and put up a coherent formidable force to fight the 'mighty' Russians. When he was offered a safe passage to a western country he retorted - " I don't need a lift . I need weapons for my people". Most despots ran away with their families and movable wealth to another safe country at the first sign of trouble - from Iraq, Afganistan to Srilanka.
Like Winston Churchill he stands tall as a capable leader.

2. Ukraine people: The Ukrainians had suffered a lot under Russians. Giving up and surrendering to the Russians was not an option. The Russians have the same mentality as the Mongols when it comes to war - loss of life means nothing to their leaders.

NATO was formed primarily to ward off the Soviet Union. If Putin's idea to start the limited military operation as he called the invasion - was to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO, he ended up sending Finland and Sweden into the arms of NATO.

Suddenly NATO countries closed the gap, increased individually their military budget allocations and now present a coherent front.

Putin lived in a bunker during the covid days and with his terminal cancer had developed megalomania tendencies and imagines himself as the last Czar. He wants to go back to the Soviet Union days of extending his border to the SU days.

Unfortunately for him, his once mighty Army had lost its sheen and his formidable array of weapons were beaten by the Ukraine.

[Rahul Bhalgat]

Originally Posted by Prowler

Putin had everything going for him before 24 Feb 2022:

So Putin plunged into Ukraine ostensibly to denazify Ukraine and protect the Russians in east Ukraine and to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO on 24-2-2022.

But Putin and the rest of the world never counted on 2 things:
1. Zelensky
2. Ukraine people

Thanks for sharing this perspective.

You mean to say that power hungry Russia (or Putin) invaded Ukraine seeing a favorable situation. But the operation is dragging on because of determined Ukrainian leadership & people and because the Russian army couldn't come out as good / competent as they boast.

In spite of Ukraine's resistance and overvaluation of Russian army, I still tend to think that the Russians could have defeated Ukraine by now, if Putin really wanted to. Afterall Ukrain doesn't have a well organised (or well maintained) army and Russians (though overvalued) aren't total crap.

Then there were other ways to establish some control over Ukraine. One way is providing funds and covert support to other parties / leaders for effecting a regime change. If Russia tried to influence US elections, can they not influence Ukraine politics?

Hence I am wondering, why a military operation, that too without full might focussed?

If we take Kargil example, Musharraf must be definately aware that India will never give away the territory, they will fight and get it back. So gaining control over those hills wasn't the real objective at all. The real objective was to interrupt and dump the harmony that Vajpayee Govt. and Nawaz Sharif Govt. were developing. The real intention was to prevent the India Pakistan relations from taking a different turn.

Like this, is there any other "real" objective behind this military operation?

[Prowler]

Originally Posted by Rahul Bhalgat

Then there were other ways to establish some control over Ukraine. One way is providing funds and covert support to other parties / leaders for effecting a regime change. If Russia tried to influence US elections, can they not influence Ukraine politics?

Hence I am wondering, why a military operation, that too without full might focussed?

Ukraine is probably the first in the list of countries to usurp. And who said Russia is not using its full might ?

Most of Russia's modern weapons are not in production stage in quantities. The Armata tank is not in production and the few Armata tanks produced are for display and the annual show.

The Russian army had almost exhausted its relatively modern T72 B3 tanks with active armor. But the active armor didn't protect them from the British NLAWs and the American Javelin anti tank missiles. Putin is falling back on the ancient T60 tanks. His elite Spetnaz units couldn't take the Kyiv airport when the war started. He now has to depend on the Chechen fighters and mercenaries from Syria.

He has only dumb missiles in his armory and he is lobbing them at civilian targets like malls and residential buildings, railway stations and schools.
Yet he can drag this war for as long as he lives as he or his rich oligarchs have no value for lives. He doesn't care about his own people as he sent conscripts to the meat grinder in Ukraine.

But then it is no surprise for Russians. For them the human toll is of no concern. Remember the Rzhev meat grinder in WW II where the Russians lost 2.3 million while the Germans lost about 160000.

[Foxbat]

Originally Posted by Prowler

Ukraine is probably the first in the list of countries to usurp. And who said Russia is not using its full might ?

The Russian army had almost exhausted its relatively modern T72 B3 tanks with active armor. But the active armor didn't protect them from the British NLAWs and the American Javelin anti tank missiles. Putin is falling back on the ancient T60 tanks.

This is a serious thread, please refrain from posting propaganda. There are many fallacies in your post but I think the T-60 tank takes the cake:

The T-60 scout tank was a light tank produced by the Soviet Union from 1941 to 1942. During this period, 6,292 units were built.



Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T-60_tank


The Russians are using 80+ year old tanks from WWII?

[Fuldagap]

One sure impact of Russo Ukraine war seems to be on Taiwan.

As is depicted in this video, they are practising for emergency situations that may happen due to a war with China, as Russia did to Ukraine. How it would feel to a resident there is beyond comprehension.

The video is in Hindi, sorry but couldn't find any other in English.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-44mlGu8ETw

[NH08]

Uncle Sam has got no guts to directly confront Russia but its Consulate in Mumbai had the fully childish audacity to directly tell a Port Authority in India to not let Russian Ship enter the port.

The US Consulate General in Mumbai wrote directly to the Mumbai Port Authority last month asking it to not allow Russian vessels to dock at the port because of American sanctions against Russia.

As usual these days with the boys of S Jaishankar, Consulate's move was rebuffed and MEA 'advised' their counterparts to talk to MEA. The US later said the conversation with India was a private one. But sources pointed out that such diplomatic conversations are not private.

Even experts from US were surprised. Derek J Grossman from the RAND Corporation and a keen watcher of India-US ties tweeted:

Seems Biden admin has shifted tactics when pressuring India. Instead of speaking directly to New Delhi, US consulate in Mumbai writes a letter to Mumbai Port Authority to bar Russian ships. Of course, New Delhi found out. Silly move by the US.

Source

Uncle Sam, why not you put out an advertisement in Indian newspapers requesting people not to use petrol because some of that is coming from Russia? And therefore, funding the war.

Meanwhile, in a completely unrelated news, NASA and Russia's space agency Roscosmos have signed a long-sought agreement to integrate flights to the International Space Station. The agreement allows Russian cosmonauts to fly on U.S.-made spacecraft in exchange for American astronauts being able to ride on Russia's Soyuz.

Source

That's very cool. After all, Uncle Sam is the best judge to decide which activity funds the war and which one does not.

[Prowler]

Originally Posted by Foxbat

This is a serious thread, please refrain from posting propaganda. There are many fallacies in your post but I think the T-60 tank takes the cake:

I see no reason why we should get acrimonious over a war fought by Russia. I am not an Ukrainian who is trying to post propaganda messages here. I don't subscribe to any political ideology - capitalism, communism or socialism. So I have no personal agenda here.

I am just appalled at the senseless violence unleashed against civilians. Yesterday a 4 year old child Lizy died in a missile attack. The child was heading towards a child treatment center when the Russian missile struck.

Here is a link to the page which describes in detail how Russia is sending T62 ( I had identified the tank as T60 instead of T62) tanks to the war in Ukraine.

[AltoLXI]

The impact ...

[Samurai]

US House gives waiver to India for buying S-400 missiles. Now, Senate and POTUS have to approve.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_eIEH8gtuQ

[V.Narayan]

Originally Posted by Samurai

US House gives waiver to India for buying S-400 missiles. Now, Senate and POTUS have to approve.

https://www.Youtube.com/watch?v=E_eIEH8gtuQ

Not unexpected. As India becomes a major arms buyer, if not the biggest buyer, from America, their military-industrial complex and its network of friendly politicians will work hard to ensure we are not subject to their sanctimonious sanctions. Mark my words it is only a matter of time before the US offers us sale/lease/license production of nuclear powered fast attack submarines. Thank you Uncle Xi Jinping. With China's rise inevitable, with Russia's weakening equally inevitable India and USA have little choice but to love each other or at least get into bed in a marriage of convenience. Later love might blossom. The encouraging thing is that both USA and India are approaching each other with restraint and immense patience at the senior most level - a "we know we cannot live without each other so let's learn to live together" approach which IMHO is the most sensible route to laying the foundation for a long term partnership. India is learning, thanks to an outstanding External Affairs Minister to outgrow its persecution complex and be able to push back firmly. USA is learning that India is not Germany or UK or South Korea and needs a more peer to peer treatment if this has to work.