[AjinkyaP]

Originally Posted by digitalnirvana

A quick glance on reddit shows videos of Indian girls being beaten up and kicked by the Ukrainian border guards. Some might debate the authenticity of the videos but just relaying what was posted - guys were heard saying in the background in Hindi "look how they're beating up even the girls" (dekho kaise maar rahe hai ladkiyo ko).

It isn’t what it looks like.
I was on a Twitter space yesterday, a representative of Team SOS India (They are supporting Indian students in Ukraine at a ground level )confirmed it was a crowd control measure on the border gates , nothing to do with India’s stand on the invasion.

[digitalnirvana]

Originally Posted by AjinkyaP

It isn’t what it looks like.
I was on a Twitter space yesterday, a representative of Team SOS India (They are supporting Indian students in Ukraine at a ground level )confirmed it was a crowd control measure on the border gates , nothing to do with India’s stand on the invasion.

As I said earlier, it's up to interpretation as to *why* it was done. Might be due to India's stand, might be racism, might be a trigger happy operator, might be tempers running high.

I saw two videos - one of an Indian girl being dragged along the ground and her screaming for help. And another one of a border guard kicking with his boot a guy and his luggage. The guy was standing at a fair distance, this guard went over to him and kicked.

Somehow these crowd control measures are affecting more those with brown or black skin. Or these particular communities are excellent at propaganda in highlighting their plight.

[AjinkyaP]

Originally Posted by digitalnirvana

As I said earlier, it's up to interpretation as to *why* it was done.

Thats exactly what should be avoided , interpretation based on speculations.
Especially on the matters like being labelled as racist or what caused the unfortunate death of the 21 year old Indian student.

Least we can do is to wait for either the official statement or listen to someone who is directly involved in the matter.

[nitkel]

Funny how the trend on this thread is changing according to what social media feeds are reporting! First it was evil Russians, then it became sly Americans and now it's turned to racist Ukrainians! People here need to chill out a bit I feel.

[digitalnirvana]

Originally Posted by AjinkyaP

Thats exactly what should be avoided , interpretation based on speculations.
Especially on the matters like being labelled as racist or what caused the unfortunate death of the 21 year old Indian student.

Least we can do is to wait for either the official statement or listen to someone who is directly involved in the matter.

I think you are misconstruing my posts.

Nowhere have I alluded to the killing of the 21 year old unfortunate student to racism or anything of that kind.

Please go back and read through my posts.

The friends of the deceased have already said he was in Kharkiv and in a queue to buy groceries which was incidentally near the Governor's house which got blown up, and he was caught up in the strike. It is reported on all reputed news portals.

I am talking about a completely different topic which is happening at the borders. This has also been extensively reported on sites like NDTV which are generally considered as left leaning and not a jingoistic source. So we can surely discuss it because it's not a figment of our imagination or pulled from obscure propaganda sources. Slavic countries do have a racism problem, it's not new, it's not going away, and it's not just during this war.

If we wait for official statement on everything, more than half of the posts in this thread will need to be purged for propaganda or bias.

[Amrik Singh]

Originally Posted by AjinkyaP

Thats exactly what should be avoided , interpretation based on speculations.
Especially on the matters like being labelled as racist or what caused the unfortunate death of the 21 year old Indian student.

Least we can do is to wait for either the official statement or listen to someone who is directly involved in the matter.

It is War. If he was not in Military outfit - he was not an intended target. if he was shot from a distance - he was not shot because of his race or nationality or the foreign policy of his country.
It is likely to be a stray bullet. As is said 'To be at the wrong place at the wrong time'. Remember, modern weapons do not carry bullet by the name of victim, they work on 'To Whomsoever it may concern' basis. Bullets are sprayed like rain shower. So exactly difficult to pinpoint the cause of this terrible loss of young life.
There are hundreds and thousands of other casualties too and maybe some faces will never be seen by their near ones.

[GutsyGibbon]

Originally Posted by nitkel

First it was evil Russians, then it became sly Americans and now it's turned to racist Ukrainians!

I recently learned that up until 1994 Ukraine had the world's third largest nuclear stockpile. The Budapest Memorandum was signed with Russia and others in 1994. After Ukraine got assurances from other nuclear powers never to be attacked or invaded, Ukraine handed over all the nuclear weapons to Russia. If anything Ukrainians are bitter, and filled with regret about this agreement.

No nuclear power will ever sign a nuclear non proliferation treaty. With players like Russia, no agreement will hold its value.

[SnS_12]

India should never forget what happened in the beginning of 1966 when India’s second Prime Minister Lal Bahadur Shastri died on January 11, 1966, under strange and ill-investigated circumstances. And Nuclear Scientist Homi Bhabha died on 24 January 1966, in a mysterious and unexplained Plane Crash.

PM Lal Bahadur Shastri was worried thinking about China’s nuclear testing in 1964, thus he had asked Bhabha if Indian scientists could conduct an underground test. Bhabha has said that India could develop a nuclear weapon in a short period. Bhabha had realised by then that a country with nuclear capability can deter even a more powerful country when the need arises. Bhabha had declared on All India Radio in October 1965 that if he was given the go-ahead, India would be able to build a nuclear weapon in 18 months. And after a few months he was dead under mysterious circumstances..

India should never forget how in 1993 the Russians were arm-twisted into stalling the cryogenic rocket engine supply to India and saying it flouted the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) and sanctioned ISRO.

Even when it came to our friendly neighbours Pakistan there were no sanctions or hard talks despite numerous terrorist attacks carried out on Indian soil. Heck the Americans didn’t even sanction Pakistan for sheltering the most wanted man in the world who was responsible for deaths of numerous American citizens.

India should never forget all this and many more instances not to spur hate but to remember and not allow such incidents to happen again.

America will keep countries and governments closer till their interests are full filled but they are not the saviours that they portray to be and even their allies have realised that and are now scrambling to increase their defence budgets and become self reliant.

Trump made an interesting statement that since 2000 he is the only president under whose watch Russia never invaded another country. They made fun of his presidency and called him a Russian agent but the man is now having the last laugh now...

[DIY410]

From russian point of view, some of footage as blood and what not, its blurred but viewer discretion advised.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j9Z02bMtOK8

[AjinkyaP]

Originally Posted by digitalnirvana

Slavic countries do have a racism problem

This statement is too generic and naive IMO.
There is no country in the world which do not have ‘a racism problem’.

Specifically against Indians , we have seen numerous incidents of racist attacks in countries like USA,Australia,NZ,UK.

Only difference is , the country in question here in this thread is war torn and being bombed as we speak.

[Amrik Singh]

A very apt quotation

War is a place where the young kill one another without knowing or hating each other, because of the decision of old people who know and hate each other, without killing each other
- Erich Hartmann

[Poitive]

Folks, sharing some thoughts as a semi-casual follower of politics. They might not agree with many, but please bear in mind that it is only one set of potential perspectives in mind. This is more from a Russian side. Might write one from a US/West perspective if/when I feel more clear about it.

The 'Evil Putin' Narrative

Zelensky giving arms to civilians appears to be to this effect.

What real chance does a civilian holding weapons for the first time have a chance against a well trained army? Bear in mind that people up to 60 years of age are forced into army duty. A 55 year old unfit guy with a Kalashnikov for the first time! A civilian in plain clothes being shot by an in-uniform well equipped Russian soldier would make for pictures and videos circulating on (West owned and controlled) social media - a big influencer.

This in turn works towards building a mood of compassion in the general population of the West. Also feeds into the sentiment of 'we could be in that situation', further building resentment in the general population against Putin.

Further, it could well be possible that the strikes to residential buildings/areas were due to weapons (mortar like?) being kept and used from those areas.

Using civilians and civilian areas to attack could well be a strategy: Heads, the civilian kills; tails, the civilian helps building a narrative.

Why 'Evil Russia'?

Russia and the rest of Europe are natural allies in a sense. Supplier Russia and buyer Europe have much to gain from each other. Also would mean much less burden of arms. Would add to both's economies and make them stronger. Guess which influential power this might hurt - you only get one chance.

A strong Russia, allied with a affluent Europe, and potentially also China in the mix. Whose nightmare would it be?

So, all would be done to counter that, and going by the looks of it, it is being done.

Why 'Evil Putin'?

Signs are there that attempts to build a wedge between Putin and the Russian populace (not that issues anyway aren't there).

Ukraine has a significant population of Russian decent/ethnicity; more so in Eastern Ukraine. It is a bit difficult to justify invading and killing civilians there, and still look good to one's people. Pictures and media coverage as the type mentioned above makes it more difficult.

An average empathetic moral person with limited awareness of the harshness (or even cruelty) of international politics could well feel uneasy with it. One could be shamed by such. Could feel 'guilty'. When such happens, many would feel an urge to distance one's self from the actions. Western and Social Media often feeds info as 'Putin's actions', and not 'Russia's actions'.

To whatever extent it may be, lacking the support of people weakens Putin. Also makes ground fertile for future 'colour revolutions'.

Russia's War Ineffective?

Much of the Western media (and consequently most of Indian media) is talking like Russia is doing poorly, and not as expected.

I find this very interesting. Against what benchmarks could this be set? Does anyone even clearly know what Russia's objectives from this war might be? It appears to me that high benchmarks are set on purpose to make Russia look bad. Seems much like using media as a tool in war than anything else.

The benchmarks seem to be that Russia should obliterate Ukraine in a few days and be done with it, razing things to the ground.

Well, even to me, it seemed that they just might be trying to awe the opponent to kill their morale and minimize resistance. If that was attempted, it didn't go too well, it seems. But that might have only been something that was tried as an outside chance plan A, as if it worked it would save a lot of cost and lives.

Further ...

Does Russia want to raize Ukraine to the Ground?

Probably not. If that was the objective, they might have done much already, with them being in control of the relevant air-space.

Contrary to what an 'Evil Putin' image might suggest, it appears they are trying to limit damage. More damage, obvious damage, and brutal violence towards civilians would only increase future insurgency. Dealing with insurgency too has it's costs. Pragmatic thinking says one should avoid those if possible - it might eventually not be possible. Ukraine isn't a country thousands of kms away like Iraq is for the US. It being with a common border, the problems would be felt at home too.

This point furthered in the section below.

Endgame?
What favourable endgame of this conflict can Russia reasonably want?

I really don't think they would want to annex Ukraine and make it a part of Russia. The costs and nuisance would be too much. As porous border from such a disturbed region would really be highly questionable.

Besides insurgency, doing so will also have international costs. It would make it more difficult for Germany or the US to buy energy from Russia, both of which ironically continue despite all the noise of sanctions.

As often said, they would want to put a government of their choice in-charge. And also give it the required support by economic means (soft loans), military means (some part remaining in Ukraine) and others. For this purpose, it would also make poor sense to leave a razed to the ground Ukraine. Hence, probably, the army is avoiding marching into cities crating mayhem which they are well capable of. The resistance is being worn down by the first lot of (likely second rung) soldiers. The slow game is likely to lead to less destruction by "Evil Putin".

Minimizing destruction of what you want to reap benefit from later makes eminent sense.

What is being shown as Russia doing poorly is quite likely this slow-game at work, and would be paced according to a broader strategy. a 65km convoy is on it's way.

Endgame: What happens to the important regions?

Further, it is also possible that since such major moves and costs have already been incurred by Russia (direct, sanctions, image, etc) they would want to control the important parts of Ukraine - the areas around Crimea and Black Sea. Also the ones adjoining Russia.

Black Sea, as already said earlier on the thread, is really important for Russia as it has very limited all-important access to warm water all-year-round-usable ports. Important for both trade and Navy. It appears this war is as much about the Black Sea as about other factors. Heavy US Navy presence via NATO in the region would be a disaster for Russia.

Russia might break Ukraine into parts. The troublesome pro-Nazi West on one side with largely Ukrainian speaking people. The part one the East adjoining Russia and the Black Sea into another one with a very high proportion of Russian speaking people. This however runs the risk of losing control over the West over time, but creates a relatively easy to manage buffer zone on the East. I suspect if the breakup is done, it would be more complex due to this reason. Possibly even more parts.

Russia might simply annex some vital parts - the parts along the Black Sea and some others, and divide the rest if needed.

Invasion Beyond Ukraine?

Though there seems to be panic in some quarters, this seems unlikely at the face of it. Unlikely but not impossible.

Finland isn't NATO. So fair game? Well, the advantages of attacking Finland are unlikely to be enough to justify.

Moldova could possibly be a target. Probably not worth it, as it doesn't have a Black Sea coast and is a bit of a buffer between "Russian" Ukraine and NATO-Romania.

NATO? Entering a NATO country would involve a very high cost, which again is not likely to be worth it for Russia. However, one should bear in mind that it does suit the all powerful arms lobby in the US for such to happen. The US also has huge influence over things, both directly and indirectly via soft means.

If NATO, then what? If Russia were to enter a NATO region, it appears that the Baltic countries of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania would make the most sense for them to go after. Why? A small annexation with easy access to warm waters again. Kaliningrad, a small Russian region on the coast between Lithuania and Poland, isn't directly connected to mainland Russia. Having the Baltic countries under it's belt would add to the security and trade of Russia. Besides the sea, it also makes NATO land further away from the city of Moscow, as compared to the Latvian border which is under 600kms.

Beyond Invasion

Nord Stream 2
What also is on the line is the Nord Stream 2 project. I do not know enough and would love to be educated further by kind folks here. My rough impression:
Germany was about to get cheaper gas from Russia using this. It bypasses Ukraine and is a direct connection between Russia and Germany via the Baltic Sea. It doubles the capacity via that route (Nord Stream 1 already exists). The current situation and the hate being built in the common folk in Europe against Putin/Russia makes it very difficult to get this functional. Would be a 'brave' decision in a democracy. The project, which was on the verge of being operational also cut out Ukraine's transit fees. Ukraine also loses it's potential of bargaining for increased transit fees (which would affect competitors energy prices) with a functional Nord Stream 2.

Political families
Apparently, there are major political families which have major business interests in Ukraine. I don't know enough. Worth exploring. The money trail often reveals interesting aspects.

PS: I don't claim the above to be the final word on anything and would happy to learn more from more knowledgeable folks on the forum.
PPS: Have tried to avoid/minimize things which are important, but have already been said numerous times on the thread.

[digitalnirvana]

Originally Posted by AjinkyaP

This statement is too generic and naive IMO.
There is no country in the world which do not have ‘a racism problem’.

Specifically against Indians , we have seen numerous incidents of racist attacks in countries like USA,Australia,NZ,UK.

Only difference is , the country in question here in this thread is war torn and being bombed as we speak.

I don't understand what your point is. It feels like we're going round in circles and you're rebutting for the sake of it.

I've spoken about some incidents which are obviously racist in nature (without going into *why* they've happened). These incidents have been reported in credible news portals. I'm specifically citing NDTV.

I've also said at the outset that the *why* could be because of rogue operators, or frayed tempers in a war zone, or a thousand other reasons. However that does not discount the fact that these incidents have happened.

If you want to excuse them or deem them acceptable, the easiest thing is to ignore my posts rather than nitpicking on half a sentence of mine in a multi paragraph post, and then reply on a completely different tangent.

First you said I said that the student killed was in a racist attack, which I'd never insinuated. Now you're cherry picking my comment about racism in Slavic countries. Well there indeed is a high degree of racism and opposition to multiculturalism in these societies. So I stand by what I said even if it is naive.

We know Ukraine is a war zone and they are not the aggressor, so yes they deserve some slack. However that doesn't mean I can't post about incidents which overwhelmingly point towards racism.

The two things are mutually exclusive. If you wish to link them and indulge in mental jugglery for the sake of exonerating them or worse for justifying them, please feel free.

This will be my last post to you on this topic.

[mvadg]

Originally Posted by nitkel

Funny how the trend on this thread is changing according to what social media feeds are reporting! First it was evil Russians, then it became sly Americans and now it's turned to racist Ukrainians! People here need to chill out a bit I feel.

Social media feeds are actually pointing out all sides of the story. In spite of being skeptical about all sides in this war, I felt Putin was the culprit here for starting the war. Thanks to this thread and the many linked videos and news items, I've understood the complete story (or so I think) and see that Zelensky too is fueling the war and getting his people killed unnecessarily.

Originally Posted by joe1980

I have the feeling that the Ukrainian president is dragging this into a 3rd world war. What is the need for this guy at this moment to sign a deal to join the EU?

I agree. He's either being very naive, or he's being tutored by the West to do what he's doing. I don't see how fighting back is going to help when they just don't have the power to stand up to Russia's mighty military apparatus. He's making his people die and suffer for no good reason. While he may be a brave and honest citizen, a corrupt politician would have done better here.

Finally, I strongly believe that we humans are just animals at our core and I can see this same scenario (including the racism) play out at just about every location on this planet.
Until we fit a metal plate on every human head and dial down our animal instincts, we are going to kill and hurt each other to serve our outdated programming.

[Amrik Singh]

There was already rift between Russian speaking rebels and Ukrainian locals in Ukraine. Now whatever happens, Russia will not take over Ukraine, but try to install a puppet government. Seeds of discord between groups in Ukraine have been sown and the two will be warring forever.. Hotbed of Terror has been prepared in Europe.