[sagarpadaki]

We, India is in a catch22 situation. They cannot support US/NATO without facing the ire of the Russians and vice versa. Will be interesting to see how the Indian diplomacy works out in this scenario

[vinya_jag]

Originally Posted by CarNerd

What are your views about this crisis? How else can this impact India? What should India do if it has to pick one over the other? Any thoughts?

How is it impacting the Ukrainians:
Mostly economical. Property prices in Kiev have crashed. Kiev, by the way is very much like Bangalore, with a lot of IT prowess. With a lot of space to move to the west of Ukraine, property prices have picked up in the western region of Ukraine. Ukraine already has lost Crimea, and some portions of the Donbas region (Eastern most) and parts of the cities like Kharkiv are already under Russian control. Kiev, though far away from the eastern border, is very close to the Belarusian border to the north (150 Km). And Russia already has their military filtering in from the north.

What could this lead to:
Ukrainians have a lot of area to flee to. Countries like Sri Lanka, Egypt, and Dominican republic have direct flights to Kiev. People would move away to safer ground to start with, but eventually, if Russia insists on gaining ground, and even Kiev, then it would just be a loss of another independent region in this area of Europe. I see a few more ghost cities in the future. Odesa, Kharkiv, Kiev, Luhashk.

What will Russia benefit from this:
Mostly territory. And Pride. However, with a crubling Ukraine, they will not gain for long. Countries like Slovenia and other bordering nations would have some ukrainian influx.

Originally Posted by CarNerd

But favouring NATO will mean strengthening the Russia-China-Pakistan block which is not exactly a great thing. The US while sitting in a safe place far away wants others to act on behalf of it whereas it is us who will bear the consequences of allying with it. It can only pick weak countries like Afghanistan, Iraq to send its troops but can't do the same in Ukraine. Just look at Taiwan: China is routinely threatening it and the US has not deployed any troops to defend it. Nobody is going to trust the US after its withdrawal from Afghanistan.

It is not too late for us to accept China as the biggest superpower.
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/...try-1960-2020/

Look at how China has become Number 1 trading partner to many nations. US could be the brain, but China is rest of the body. In the new world, China would easily have everything their way. Roadway to Europe via Pakistan, Ports in Srilanka, Farmlands in Vladivostock region, Hong Kong, Taiwan.

We shouldn't be surprised if the world shifts from its Democratic majority towards Authoritarian regime, like China and Russia in the next century. We should be thinking of 2050 and not 1960 when we tackle our POK situation

[Sushil Pingua]

Originally Posted by dragracer567

So, Russia has officially declared war on Ukraine. Turns out all the American intelligence was right!

There is no justification for this, Putin is invading a democratically ruled country! I’m not sure if India’s relationship with Russia will ever remain the same’

Link

The problem with our relationship analysis is always based on factors non-essential on a global scenario due to which we are Kings but never king-maker!

If USA and China can in the dark supply requisites to our neighbour to tackle India, then why cant we be beside Russia to shoulder-out Uncle Sam and China.

India builds economic policies with other countries by evaluating them as right or wrong, and so we are never in a strong-bond relationship with any country on Earth.

[fhdowntheline]

Interestingly, there are no reports yet of Ukraine forces offering any kind of resistance to the offensive, only emotional pleas by their president to the Russian citizens not to side with their government and to his own citizens to stay put.

[joe1980]

Given that the invasion has started, I'm tempted to think what could be next in the pipeline for Russia. Is is the Baltic states? Is it southern Europe? Part of the escalation in Ukraine was because of NATO not pulling off its forces from Romania and Hungary. So are these countries in sight for Russia? Is Russia willing to dominate eastern Europe? Whatever it is, I find it unfair to just like that attack any country in an attempt to take it over.

[SnS_12]

Originally Posted by joe1980

Given that the invasion has started, I'm tempted to think what could be next in the pipeline for Russia. Is is the Baltic states? Is it southern Europe?

Europe is still heavily dependent on Russia for Gas. Hence, France, and Germany were trying their best to diffuse the tensions diplomatically. But Sleepy Joe and America in general always are in favor of war till the time its not on their territory.

Imagine the pain Europeans will face going forward as Gas prices were already on the rise with inflation.



Now, many would think China could easily do the same with Taiwan, but they are the biggest importers of OIL and also dependent of other countries for their weapons. So the world has some leverage over them on this aspect, but majority countries don't speak against China as much they would want as they know it is still their cheap manufacturing destination, while things are slowly changing.

P.s- The Bitcoin/Crypto believers would be scratching their head as too why is the value going down and value of Gold/Silver is rising, when it was supposed to be the opposite as it was supposed to be a risk off asset??

[karthikg87]

An interesting take on the conflict in Ukraine

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...rozen-conflict


On the surface of it Russia may look like the aggressor but it's the US which keeps engineering conflicts all around the world and rolling its NATO war machine as far as there is green grass.

I believe this is the most critical moment for the foreign policy of this government esp Mr Jaishankar. By not criticising and acting on the S400 deal with Russia US hasn't showed its cards cleverly till now. It's going to be an uphill task to manage this situation for the current or any dispensation. We will have to do some aggressive diplomacy to make sure we are not affected adversely with sanctions on Russia or attract them ourselves.

We may not see much impact on our daily lives but this conflict and our reactions to it will have a lasting impact on our non alignment status and how countries support and perceive us in the event of further conflicts with our neighbours.

[thanixravindran]

In one stroke, Russia has squandered away all the advantages it held till now. Very poor move, in my opinion.

Not clear what is the military objective of this invasion. Is it to demilitarize the eastern Ukraine bordering Russia with occupation or entire Ukraine itself?

Asking Ukraine to remain Neutral is a political objective which cannot be fulfilled with this invasion.

Originally Posted by joe1980

Given that the invasion has started, I'm tempted to think what could be next in the pipeline for Russia. Is is the Baltic states? Is it southern Europe? Part of the escalation in Ukraine was because of NATO not pulling off its forces from Romania and Hungary. So are these countries in sight for Russia? Is Russia willing to dominate eastern Europe? Whatever it is, I find it unfair to just like that attack any country in an attempt to take it over.

I think it is not possible without drawing NATO into a full fledged war as Baltics and Eastern Europe are already part of NATO. But no one can predict where this will lead to. For West, it cannot just be only sanctions anymore. They have to act to save their faces.

From Russian briefing, it seems the strikes are deep in Ukraine to take out military assets/targets which will make the situation even more severe.

[tazmaan]

This is a very Bold move by Russia. All said and done this is the failure of USA and NATO. They have given Ukraine assurances but nothing has happened and Russia will end this in next 48 hours.

USA and NATO have lost face and post Afghanistan this is a proper drubbing to the image of USA. Sanctions have become a laughing stock with China and even India ignoring them.

I hope this ends soon and it ends there. Knowing how China behaves if Taiwan is also taken the world order will change if it has not already. This war will not effect India in short term but losing Taiwan will mean complete trouble for India.

I hope India will not become Ukraine for China where we will have to choose to either align with China and stay away from the west or face war.

After the Pandemic we humans are ensuring the suffering never ends.

[am1m]

Without going in to the right or wrongs of the invasion, wondering why the NATO alliance is taking so long to respond. Surely one of the scenarios they must have planned for was Russia ultimately going through with the invasion.

Also, saw a bit of the emergency meeting of the Security Council on video. What struck me was the absolute lack of urgency in the proceedings. If my country was under attack, I'd want a lot more intense activity going on to at least try and stave off the attack, diplomatically or with my alliance partners visibly bolstering defenses. While I'm saddened by the thought of any war, realistically, god help any small country without the resources to defend itself or deter an attack!

[@og_adi]

While it's good to hear civilians aren't being targeted and hence no casualties till now, it's utterly disappointing to see a country resort to violence. Going by the statements made by Russia, it looks like they are not really interested to occupy Ukraine. Then what exactly do they want to convey? Is this simply to threathen Ukraine or does it involve any message to other countries too?

Putin just asked other countries not to interfere-
https://apnews.com/article/russia-uk...ource=inshorts

Not sure if it's direct impact but looks like stock prices have gone downhill in most cases even when compared to the previous day though Sensex hasn't really plummeted.

[warrioraks]

The impact of this will go beyond Ukraine. This could very well set a precedent that invading another country practically has no costs.

Earlier only US could do it openly (Iraq, Afghanistan). Now Russia has initiated it. Next could be China and before we know it, this might very soon spiral out of control.

[Hayek]

What a low life scum Putin is!! This is definitively the end of the 30 year cycle that started with the fall of the Berlin Wall - despite what Francis Fukuyama said, History does not end - it comes back and bites you.

Don’t see any good outcomes from this - if the West fails to stop Putin and allows him to occupy a peaceful neighbour with 40 mm people, it just tells every nation, “It is each one for itself”. If I were Japan or South Korea or Australia, I would say I need nuclear weapons and now. I can’t depend on a American security umbrella any more. Also I can’t depend on free trade. So be prepared for a world with less free trade, less migration, more war, more hate.

My generation was the lucky one, which came of age in the 1990s. I feel sorry for the kids of today.

[dragracer567]

Originally Posted by Hayek

My generation was the lucky one, which came of age in the 1990s. I feel sorry for the kids of today.

You can say that again. This is a common line of discussion with my friends, our 20’s was first disrupted by the pandemic and now this. We can try to bring equivalencies with the west’s invasions or behaviours of other tyrant states, but nothing compares to the scale of the impact here. Ukraine is a large country well connected to the globe, more so than Iraq or Afghanistan, this will affect us all badly.

I’m in my mid twenties and I’m not ready to live through the third Great Recession of my generation.

[sierrabravo98]

Originally Posted by dragracer567

There is no justification for this, Putin is invading a democratically ruled country! I’m not sure if India’s relationship with Russia will ever remain the same’

Link

Who appointed India as the custodian of "democratic" values? What I expect from my government is to safeguard Indian (and only Indian interests) in this power-play between two dying powers. If our interests are best served with a non-democratic/autocratic regime, so be it. No one comes to help us in the time of need. So neither should we. I would wish Ukrainians the best of luck. Don't expect anything more from us.

Originally Posted by tazmaan

I hope India will not become Ukraine for China where we will have to choose to either align with China and stay away from the west or face war.

After the Pandemic we humans are ensuring the suffering never ends.

The power differential between Indian and China is not remotely close to what exists between Russia and Ukraine. I wrote somewhere else that we may (or will, depending on how lucky or unlucky we are) lose a war with China. But we will take it down with us. All dreams of an Asian century will then remain just so, DREAMS. The only party which will benefit in a Sino-Indian war is the United States of America.

As for this current situation, the best we can do is wait and watch. We do not have any skin in the game. IMHO, It would be downright foolish (and suicidal) for India to place a toe on either side right now. Also, I believe that our situational awareness of this conflict is quite good judging from the impeccably timed advisory issued to Indian citizens/diplomats in Ukraine so far. I believe that the strategic apparatus will do what is best.