[vishnurp99]

Originally Posted by Poitive

Haven't studied it enough to have a firm opinion. Sharing this thought crossed my mind with fellow mates. Consider this:
. [list][*]Russia starts surrounding Kyiv leaving southern part open (already in action). [*]It being the capital (which also has huge symbolic value; also to morale), large Ukrainian forces need to be deployed there, as they do seem to be. [*]With opponent's forces divided, they mount pressure/attack/encirclement on Odesa, which could be a more immidiate target. With forces split and two important cities to protect, Russia's chances of taking Odesa, or laying an effective seige improve. [*]Additionally and possibly, at the right time choke off the open southern corridor from Kyiv, leading to it's siege. With supplies hard to come by, and the Black Sea also cut off, it might lead to a surrender and end of a major phase of the conflict. [*]Even if Kyiv doesn't fall, or takes long for it to, Odessa and the Black Sea being cut off would be a big victory for Russia, IMO. [*]Yes, unlike US attacks, this might be a slower way, but more in tune with Russia's likely objectives (talked more about in my first post here)
That Russia hasn't credibly declared it's objectives from the war (which is a wise strategic move in many cases), allows it to redefine it's moves, while keeping other's guessing; also refusing to be tied down to West/media narratives of benchmarks of success.

I think Russians have already used this strategy to secure the sea of Azov coast line. Note that there was never a concrete attempt to seize Kiev after the initial intrusion. Instead they probed and applied pressure on Kiev so that a substantial part of defense forces of Ukraine would be stuck near Kiev. Remember the very long convoy that was expected to capture kiev.Then they blew up the supply lines/soldier reinforcements coming in from the west for the Ukranian forces in the sea of Azov region and basically started sige warfare for cities in that region.

There was a analysis by a retired Indian army man (GD Bakshi) few weeks back where this strategy was laid out.

[Poitive]

Originally Posted by JithinR

... Ukrainian delegation sent for peace talks were victims of standard Russian style chemical weapons poisioning..

Another peace talks delegation related incident. Death in this case several days ago: Denis Kireev



Link: https://www.timesofisrael.com/ukrain...d-in-intel-op/

A Ukrainian official has been killed in Kyiv amid confusing claims he had been executed for working for Russia.

Denis Kireev, 45, died just a week after he attended the first round of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in Belarus.

Link: https://7news.com.au/news/ukraine/co...reet-c-5958770

Originally Posted by vishnurp99

I think Russians have already used this strategy...
... and basically started sige warfare for cities in that region...

Much agreeable, mate. Yet again, I refer to selected (and formatted for emphasis) parts of my first post on this thread on 02 March, when popular opinions were quite different and much was yet to play out:

Originally Posted by Poitive

Russia's War Ineffective?

Much of the Western media (and consequently most of Indian media) is talking like Russia is doing poorly, and not as expected.

I find this very interesting. Against what benchmarks could this be set? Does anyone even clearly know what Russia's objectives from this war might be? It appears to me that high benchmarks are set on purpose to make Russia look bad. Seems much like using media as a tool in war than anything else.

The benchmarks seem to be that Russia should obliterate Ukraine in a few days and be done with it, razing things to the ground.
...
Does Russia want to raize Ukraine to the Ground?

Probably not. If that was the objective, they might have done much already, with them being in control of the relevant air-space.

Contrary to what an 'Evil Putin' image might suggest, it appears they are trying to limit damage. More damage, obvious damage, and brutal violence towards civilians would only increase future insurgency. Dealing with insurgency too has it's costs. Pragmatic thinking says one should avoid those if possible - it might eventually not be possible...

Endgame?
What favourable endgame of this conflict can Russia reasonably want?
...
... Hence, probably, the army is avoiding marching into cities crating mayhem which they are well capable of. The resistance is being worn down by the first lot of (likely second rung) soldiers. The slow game is likely to lead to less destruction by "Evil Putin".
...
What is being shown as Russia doing poorly is quite likely this slow-game at work, and would be paced according to a broader strategy. a 65km convoy is on it's way.

Just check the map in my one before the previous post. The sheer length of the line of engagement suggests that Russia is trying to make the Ukranian forces spread thin - something Russia can afford more than Ukraine. It also keeps the adversary guessing a bit, as to where it should move their stretched forces to.

A slow approach reducing civilian casualties within workable limits (from a Russian perspective) suggests chocking of resources by siege like operations where possible (the map North of Kyiv makes for interesting reading) and using air space to target suspected resistance within those cities. We should also bear in mind that the Eastern part of Ukraine is predominantly of Russian ethnicity and one which is relevant for Russia to keep in it's favour, to the extent possible. Another reason not to go harsh on civilians when viable.

They also seem to want concentration of forces in some areas to then try for a surrender, or at least block them reinforcing other vulnerable areas. (Kyiv being prime by the looks of it.)

PS: Would be great to hear from military experts on the forum.

[lifeinpune]

Here is a very interesting vlog from Gonzalo Lira

https://youtu.be/TzR---YDDIQ

focussed on Victoria NuLand, the architect of the current crisis. His videos tend to be long. But I would highly recommend this one.

Interesting tidbit - Looks like Joe Biden visited Ukraine frequently for business interests (You can read between the lines on what that might entail)

BTW, Biden said that he wants regime change in Russia, the bureaucrats tried to play it down but Biden came back and cleared the air that he meant what he said !

[SnS_12]

A brief of what has been discussed (Russian perspective) in 80 odd pages of this thread in 12 mins.

Well, Putin has confirmed his deadline of 31-3-2022 for Gas to be paid in Rubles. Russia won’t do any charity and no payment in rubles, no gas as simple as that.

The enormity of the situation is so grave that western media is not even admitting openly the challenges they will face in a few days as it will definitely crash their financial markets and have social unrest. All they are saying is that it will be a breach of contract and silently praying that Putin won’t turn the tables on them. With such sanctions you can’t have it your way and expect Russia to accept your currency for your necessities and at the same time choke them for theirs.

https://youtu.be/6xHmgTRkn6M

[JithinR]

Originally Posted by Poitive

Another peace talks delegation related incident. Death in this case several days ago: Denis Kireev

Yeah not sure why the former Soviet Union countries have this nasty habit of outright executing or poisioning people they don't want around. I guess anything is ok if it's to protect the fatherland.

Originally Posted by lifeinpune

BTW, Biden said that he wants regime change in Russia, the bureaucrats tried to play it down but Biden came back and cleared the air that he meant what he said !

Biden came back and clarified that his comments were due to his moral outrage he felt after meeting refugees displaced due to this conflict (...yes yes I know all this is western propaganda) and that it didn't signal a change in US foreign policy with regards to the government in Russia.

[shashanka]

Originally Posted by Aloneatma

This is a beginning of a new world order. Western hegemony has been threatened and the west doesn't like it. The west has been the bully for centuries, altering the destinies of unsuspecting nations, and now it's their turn. You sow as you reap. Its not about vindicating Russian aggression. It's about a nation decisively taking a step to protect its sovereignty. Any cornered animal will attack it's predator. In this case Russia decided enough is enough and called out the NATO's bluff. The world is divided over this supposedly dastardly act of Russia. Many aren't even surprised. India for once, saw this was coming and got its priorities on point.........
I strongly believe that India will play a significant role in reshaping the world order as right now it's the only major economy that is close to both the west and the east.

That India's stand (pro-Russia) in this European conflict is not uniformly reflected on this thread is not surprising - we are after all a thriving egalitarian community with strong views!. I too believe that Russia is justified in the step that it took to launch its "Special Operation" against Ukraine. Your post is pertinent and that a new world order may be emerging is true to the mark. And like a majority of the opinions expressed by people I have been interacting with, a pro-Russian consensus seems to be emerging. And if Putin follows through with his statement - no ruble, no gas - then it would be a major shift in the status quo. And I hope that this would be resolved peacefully.

Originally Posted by SnS_12

A brief of what has been discussed (Russian perspective) in 80 odd pages of this thread in 12 mins.

Well, Putin has confirmed his deadline of 31-3-2022 for Gas to be paid in Rubles. Russia won’t do any charity and no payment in rubles, no gas as simple as that.

The enormity of the situation is so grave that western media is not even admitting openly the challenges they will face in a few days as it will definitely crash their financial markets and have social unrest. All they are saying is that it will be a breach of contract and silently praying that Putin won’t turn the tables on them. With such sanctions you can’t have it your way and expect Russia to accept your currency for your necessities and at the same time choke them for theirs.

https://Youtu.be/6xHmgTRkn6M

Just so - the video is a crisp synopsis of what has been thrashed out in the past so many pages. And if Putin follows through on his threat of "no ruble, no gas", then sane minds should grapple with the issue and not with trigger-happy knee-jerk reactions. The US and its "Sanctions, sanctions!" policy reminds me of the Queen of Hearts in Alice in Wonderland and her "Off with his head!" decree at the smallest transgression.

We are all watching with bated breath - is this really the beginning of a new world order - and more importantly - will it come about without serious birth pangs. And for the first time in the past few centuries, India is positioned closer to the hub of the issue by virtue of its emerging clout, economically and politically.

[SnS_12]

Originally Posted by shashanka

And I hope that this would be resolved peacefully.

Well the west are definitely having a change of heart and are now looking to resolve it peacefully and trying to avoid a financial disaster for themselves.

The great Zelensky, who the western media were portraying as he was wining the war maybe got a reality check along with his western mentors.

Russia has lost everything economically as per the west and they cannot push them down any further. Russia is not alone while challenging the US$ global reserve dominance and there are many countries especially who have been illtreated by US who stand to benefit from this move. So, how can the US challenge so many countries at the same time is to be seen.

For the US the timing of all this couldn't have been any worst because if their economy goes into recession the fed will have to print/pump in more money to stimulate the economy and they will have to print more than what they did last time around. More money in the system with low interest rates will only fuel inflation and if at the same time their money losses global reserve status it will loose value drastically.

This whole financial problem started in 2008 and instead of fixing it they kept kicking the can down the road and now it has come to a stage where they have run out of road.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8hCcCAV4BM

Originally Posted by shashanka

And for the first time in the past few centuries, India is positioned closer to the hub of the issue by virtue of its emerging clout, economically and politically.

India is proving its a soft power the world can no longer ignore and all the influx of senior leaders of other countries in the recent days confirms that. Just this week we have senior delegation incoming from Israel, Russia and UK. Plus the message to the Chinese FM who didn't receive a red carpet welcome was loud and clear move back from LOC if you want to start a meaningful dialogue.

Finally, the OIL producing nations are showing their power to the West. Western countries were all set to wipe off these countries financially with talk of global warming and green energy and now these countries are getting back at them by showing that we will no longer play by your books.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aK7MmZk56oM

Western Hypocrisy at its absolute best. We buy your gas that we cannot do without by paying with our currency, which btw is useless for you because of our own sanctions on you

[vishnurp99]

Originally Posted by SnS_12

Well, Putin has confirmed his deadline of 31-3-2022 for Gas to be paid in Rubles. Russia won’t do any charity and no payment in rubles, no gas as simple as that.

The enormity of the situation is so grave that western media is not even admitting openly the challenges they will face in a few days as it will definitely crash their financial markets and have social unrest. All they are saying is that it will be a breach of contract and silently praying that Putin won’t turn the tables on them. With such sanctions you can’t have it your way and expect Russia to accept your currency for your necessities and at the same time choke them for theirs.

https://Youtu.be/6xHmgTRkn6M

Ruble has pretty much made up all the losses that it had incurred. The dollar : Ruble conversion rate was 87 Ruble : 1 USD on Feb 24. The ruble depreciated to 139 Ruble : 1 USD but it's back to around 89 Ruble: 1 USD based on today's rates. So did the sanctions work or did they fail in a macro sense? Please share any thoughts that all of you may have.

[Samurai]

Originally Posted by vishnurp99

Ruble has pretty much made up all the losses that it had incurred. The dollar : Ruble conversion rate was 87 Ruble : 1 USD on Feb 24. The ruble depreciated to 139 Ruble : 1 USD but it's back to around 89 Ruble: 1 USD based on today's rates. So did the sanctions work or did they fail in a macro sense? Please share any thoughts that all of you may have.

I predicted this back on March 6th with reasons.

[Foxbat]

Since some of our esteemed members only trust reputed "Western", "Rules Based" and "Democratic" News sources:




https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/29/e...cmd/index.html

An effective fighting force that's very much involved in the current conflict, the battalion has a history of neo-Nazi leanings, which have not been entirely extinguished by its integration into the Ukrainian military.

In its heyday as an autonomous militia, the Azov Battalion was associated with White supremacists and neo-Nazi ideology and insignia. It was especially active in and around Mariupol in 2014 and 2015. CNN teams in the area at the time reported Azov's embrace of neo-Nazi emblems and paraphernalia.


In the not-too-distant past, Azov's leadership openly espoused White supremacist views and cultivated links with similarly minded groups and individuals in the West.

In 2010, Andriy Biletsky, now leader of the National Corps, the Azov movement's political wing, reportedly said his goal was to "lead the White races of the world in a final crusade," according to the Guardian.

[SnS_12]

Originally Posted by vishnurp99

So did the sanctions work or did they fail in a macro sense?

Without the Energy sanctions even the West knew it was never going to be a 100% success and hence they kept it as a last resort and only US have stopped purchasing their oil and Germany on the other hand refused.

Russia is now converting EU's Russian energy dependence, which is its biggest weakness as its strength. EU countries now have the option of not buying Russian gas from 31st March or option 2 is too start paying in Rubles.

If they go with Option 1 - The citizens will come on the street and protest till their government or a new government comes to power who will agree to pay in rubles.

If they go with Option 2 - EU countries will basically have to remove the banking sanctions put by them on Russia, so that they can buy Rubles against their own currency or even the US$. Since, the majority currency transacted through SWIFT is US$ chances are US will never agree to take off sanctions from Russia.

[aim120]

Originally Posted by JithinR

Yeah not sure why the former Soviet Union countries have this nasty habit of outright executing or poisioning people they don't want around. I guess anything is ok if it's to protect the fatherland.

.

Some of western MSM where passing it of as though russians did it.
In one video a Ukraine military guy was scolding a Ukraine politician and later on a few days after that he was found dead with gunshot wounds.(although the picture of body does look like him, its not confirmed).

There are multiple videos with NSFW warnings, that I dare not click but comments said that a woman was killed after being tortured with Nazi symbol on her chest, with hand dismembered.

There also pictures of torture rooms in ukraine Azov Nazi buildings.

Not a word of these including the torture of POW by western MSM.

The difference between civilians killed by russia vs ukraine. Is that when russia bombs or artillery strike a building, some civilians are collateral damage. Ukraine armed forces have themselves take selfie of them being in residential buildings, school, hospitals used as sleeping or ammo storage or regrouping center.

They also use civilians vehicles to transport Anti tank weapons. They even use DHL vehicle.

So when russians see these pictures they are going to attack those buildings, if the building still has some residents who refused to leave or being held they are collateral.

But if you look at videos of civilians killed by Ukraine armed forces. There is visual proof of them killing civilians with point blank range. Killing POW and what not. So these action are deliberate.

Multiple videos or civilians saying the ukraine military shooting at ethnic russian civilians.

Ukrainen military launching Tochka missile at civilian center (in russian held territory where the cities are taken without a fight due to ethnic russian majority) with a fragmentation warhead which when it explodes send shrapnel several hundred meter radius killing anyone who is not in a armoured vehicle or a concrete building.

Again not a peep of this in western media.

[vishnurp99]

Looks like the hostilities are gradually winding down.

https://tass.com/defense/1429019

"Due to the fact that the talks on preparing an agreement on Ukraine’s neutrality and non-nuclear status as well as on providing Ukraine with security guarantees are moving to the practical sphere, considering the principles discussed during the meeting today, in order to bolster mutual confidence and create the necessary conditions for the further talks and the achievement of the final goal - the coordination and the signing of the aforementioned agreement - the Russian Defense Ministry has made a decision to cardinally, several-fold decrease the military activity in the direction of Kiev and Chernigov," he said.

https://tass.com/politics/1429025

"We have received Ukraine’s written proposals confirming its striving toward a neutral, off-block and nuclear-free status, with a refusal from the production and deployment of all types of weapons of mass destruction, including chemical and bacteriological weapons, and a ban on the deployment of foreign military and foreign troops. We have received these written proposals," he said.

https://nypost.com/2022/03/27/zelens...o-end-the-war/

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Sunday he is willing to compromise with Russia on the Donbass region — because to try to force Russian forces completely from Ukraine would lead to World War III, according to Reuters.

The stunning reported development came as Ukraine’s top military-intelligence official said he believes Russia is backing off taking the country’s capital of Kyiv to instead focus on the southern and eastern portions of the country — to try to split the nation into two.

The challenge for the west will be around how to sell this at home. Their media has whipped a war frenzy. If Russia gets more territory, recognition for Crimea and land corridor for Crimea, it will be interesting to see how this is sold to Americans and Europeans. The opposition in the democracies will ensure that there is focus on these compromises.

[AltoLXI]

Originally Posted by vishnurp99

Looks like the hostilities are gradually winding down.

I personally do not believe it is winding down. Looks more like a strategic time out where both would step back and change their strategies for the next round.

[JithinR]

Originally Posted by aim120

Again not a peep of this in western media.

Yep. The Western tech companies blocking or curtailing Russian media sources is counter productive. Especially now that Putin has got his buddy Yevgeny Prigozhin (known as Putin's cook) the owner of Wagner (or Liga or whatever they call themselves these days) mercenary group to send in 1000 additional troops into Ukraine.

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-w...s-mod-12577183

Think of these guys as the Russian equivalent of the Blackwater group.

Considering that they have been accused of human rights abuses in multiple countries (Syria, Libya etc.) they could have at least gained some footage of the murders these guys will commit over the next few weeks in Ukraine and then compare that to the Russian media coverage which will bestow them with honors for defending their fatherland.

Oh and where exactly are you getting all these reports of Ukrainian defense forces murdering their citizens (knew that the Azov guys were despicable human beings already through twitter but didn't know this problem was more widespread)? Can you link some of them so that we can also read some Russian propaganda once in a while.

Tired of my daily diet of western propaganda.