[lifeinpune]

Perspective from former US Marine, Scott Ritter on the Ukraine invasion

https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1OwGWzAYeEqKQ

[SnS_12]

A informative discussion on how badly the west has handled this situation and ultimately would be the biggest looser.

https://youtu.be/b-kDzxJQNPc

[dragracer567]

Originally Posted by SnS_12

A informative discussion on how badly the west has handled this situation and ultimately would be the biggest looser.

Looks like Putin blinked first. Putin will continue to supply the Europeans with the gas paid for in Euros. The Germans called Putin’s bluff because selling their fossil fuels abroad is the last remaining income for Russia (it’s not easy to replace Europe as a customer due to transportation issues and high insurance costs for Russian exports).

Regarding the strengthening of the Ruble, a likely scenario is the Russians offloading their foreign reserves (whichever they have access to) to prop up their currency like Turkey did a few months back. Before the invasion, Russia had about $640 billion in foreign reserves - similar to India. Highly unlikely that the Europeans are purchasing Rubles like some Bhpians have theorised. Even India declined to trade in Ruble focusing on either barter or rupee trade. This is a finite resource as Turkey found out.

[SnS_12]

Originally Posted by dragracer567

Looks like Putin blinked first.

Exactly, it only looks like, but it isn’t. This is another classic case of western media spinning a story to show Russia has bowed down.

The moment you read and follow from the mindset that Putin is not an Idiot you will make better sense and understanding of everything that is happening. If you read the fine lines from the German news article you posted what the real situation is



Putin had told his Central Bank to tell him by 31st how can the payment be made in rubles and that is what he told Scholz that you pay to Gazprom Bank (which is sanctioned by UK) in Euros and then it will be converted to rubles. So the end payment will still be in Rubles.

[JithinR]

Apparently Russia sent fighter jets into Swedish airspace for about a minute earlier this month. This had already been acknowledged by Sweden. However, it seems our buddy Vlad sent these guys with nukes. That piece of information is only now coming out to public domain.

I am not sure who is advising that lunatic but stuff like this is what you would do if you wanted your target to join NATO with broad public support.

Combine this with the renewed hostilities with the Japanese not sure what Vlad is planning to accomplish.

"A person often meets his destiny on the road he took to avoid it". - Jean de la Fontaine

[dragracer567]

Originally Posted by SnS_12

Exactly, it only looks like, but it isn’t. This is another classic case of western media spinning a story to show Russia has bowed down.

You missed the line before that:

Olaf Scholz's office said Russian President Vladimir Putin told the German Chancellor that European companies could continue paying in euros or dollars.

It would take a lot of audacity to lie in a statement about a conversation between two heads of states and Russia hasn't denied this either.

Putin or the Kremlin won't confirm this publicly offcourse, the greatest fear of a dictator is looking weak, gives them culpable deniability by keeping their heads down.

[SnS_12]

Originally Posted by dragracer567

Putin or the Kremlin won't confirm this publicly offcourse, the greatest fear of a dictator is looking weak, gives them culpable deniability by keeping their heads down.

My friend you're missing seeing the bigger picture in all this. With the value of Ruble where it is against the US$, Russia has found a way to circumvent western sanctions. For Russians back home their rubles is going to have more purchasing power and they won't run to covert it against anything else. This is the thing with FIAT currency issued by a superpower who can sanction and freeze that currency held by another country as then it becomes a liability (Russia in this case) and an Asset for the other (USA). Euros and US$ is just paper for Russia at the moment and hence they are demanding to be paid in Rubles. But for EU to buy rubles they have to offer something else which is of value to the Russian central bank and that is where an intermediary bank will come into play. Most probably the Euros paid by EU will be converted to Yuan and this Yuan will converted into rubles. So technically EU pays in Euros but they help Russia negate the effects of sanction by receiving rubles.

That is why people will start believing in gold more as it will always be an asset and can never become a liability like a FIAT currency in the case of Russia. Countries and institutions going forward who accept US$ and save it will slowly realize that it is losing its purchasing power over time. And its only a matter of time countries will start valuing their currency against something that has better stored value and a better medium of exchange.

[aim120]

Originally Posted by JithinR

Apparently Russia sent fighter jets into Swedish airspace for about a minute earlier this month. This had already been acknowledged by Sweden. However, it seems our buddy Vlad sent these guys with nukes. That piece of information is only now coming out to public domain.

I am not sure who is advising that lunatic but stuff like this is what you would do if you wanted your target to join NATO with broad public support.

Combine this with the renewed hostilities with the Japanese not sure what Vlad is planning to accomplish.

"A person often meets his destiny on the road he took to avoid it". - Jean de la Fontaine

Russia and the US military assets violate each others air space. Do you think the US stealth drones aren't violating russian air space. US has a history of violating every countries air space including their own nato allied airspace.(manifest saying one thing and sneaking entirely something else). US aircraft have been shot at or shot down during soviet times deep inside soviet territory.

Each of them poke each other air spaces and sea space, to test the response time.

For all we know, both countries could have parked each other nuke subs at each others coast, the thing is it makes news only if the other country is able to detect it.

Also how does sweden know its a nuke being carried. The warhead can be a dummy or nuke or conventional.

Russia launched hypersonic air launched weapons a week or so back at ukraine military targets. Those missiles are nuke capable but it had conventional war heads.

Nato jets train occasionally with dummy nukes too.

[JithinR]

Originally Posted by aim120

Russia and the US military assets violate each others air space. Do you think the US stealth drones aren't violating russian air space. US has a history of violating every countries air space including their own nato allied airspace.(manifest saying one thing and sneaking entirely something else). US aircraft have been shot at or shot down during soviet times deep inside soviet territory.

Each of them poke each other air spaces and sea space, to test the response time.

I actually do know that countries flexing their military capabilities regularly violate each others air space. But I didn't post to point out something as mundane as that. These are not normal times or even what we usually call as "period of heightened tensions". One of the parties here is engaged in open warfare with Ukraine and is trying to warn other countries now that if they don't tow the line they will be next.

Originally Posted by aim120

For all we know, both countries could have parked each other nuke subs at each others coast, the thing is it makes news only if the other country is able to detect it.

Quite true.

Originally Posted by aim120

Also how does sweden know its a nuke being carried. The warhead can be a dummy or nuke or conventional.

No clue. I have never pretended to be military expert on this or any other forum.

Originally Posted by aim120

Russia launched hypersonic air launched weapons a week or so back at ukraine military targets. Those missiles are nuke capable but it had conventional war heads.

Yes because those missile were actually used. If they launched them with a nuclear warhead you and I probably wouldn't be wasting each others time on a hot humid day.

Finally, my post was just to point out that Russia flexing it's muscles right now might actually have the opposite effect that Putin intends.

[vishnurp99]

Some of the commentators in the west have started questioning the official narrative. This is quite a provocative piece in NYT from Bret Stephens.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/29/o...war-putin.html

Some excerpts :

The conventional wisdom is that Vladimir Putin catastrophically miscalculated.

But what if the conventional wisdom is wrong? What if the West is only playing into Putin’s hands once again?

Suppose for a moment that Putin never intended to conquer all of Ukraine: that, from the beginning, his real targets were the energy riches of Ukraine’s east, which contain Europe’s second-largest known reserves of natural gas (after Norway’s).

Combine that with Russia’s previous territorial seizures in Crimea (which has huge offshore energy fields) and the eastern provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk (which contain part of an enormous shale-gas field), as well as Putin’s bid to control most or all of Ukraine’s coastline, and the shape of Putin’s ambitions become clear. He’s less interested in reuniting the Russian-speaking world than he is in securing Russia’s energy dominance.

“Under the guise of an invasion, Putin is executing an enormous heist,” said Canadian energy expert David Knight Legg. As for what’s left of a mostly landlocked Ukraine, it will likely become a welfare case for the West, which will help pick up the tab for resettling Ukraine’s refugees to new homes outside of Russian control. In time, a Viktor Orban-like figure could take Ukraine’s presidency, imitating the strongman-style of politics that Putin prefers in his neighbors.

If this analysis is right, then Putin doesn’t seem like the miscalculating loser his critics make him out to be.

My thoughts :
If Putin is able to get a peace deal which recognizes Russian control on Crimea, Donbas and has most of the coastline till sevastopol and hence the land bridge then Putin has won decisively. I don't think Zelensky would agree to that though unless he is compelled. For that to happen, Russia has to encircle the Ukraine troops (Around 45-60K) of them in Donbas and get them to surrender and get the deal as a price for letting these soldiers live. Let's see what will happen.

[SnS_12]

Joe Biden - Putin buddy, just realised we need food to survive and our farmers are falling short on fertiliser.

Putin - Okay, in rubles please...

[deetee]

On a lighter note, the twists and turns in Russia-Ukraine standoff and all the actors involved make a great movie story. When the war began, every tom, harry and dick were creating youtube videos on why the war is happening and who is who. I think now none of them has any clue on which way this is going, they all might have moved onto some other hot stories as this prognosis is beyond their comprehension.
Also as they say, a barking dog seldom bites and the one that bites usually chases silently and intently. Here Zelensky and Biden belong to former group and Putin the later. But sadly, the Ukraine people and Russian soldiers are suffering pawns in this whole power game. May be, if something good happens out of this turmoil, future generations can pray for their sacrifices (but most likely they will be forgotten).

[SnS_12]

Putin has signed a decree which now requires Russian gas buyers to open ruble bank accounts in Russian banks. Buyers will have to transfer payment in foreign currency in Gazprombank account , which the bank will then convert into rubles and transfer into the buyer’s ruble account. This will be effective 1st April and I don’t he is trying to be funny about the timing of it

[aim120]

American guy covering the war in Azov nazi stronghold.
Watch the people speak up.

https://youtu.be/rLZ2ZzoD-W0

[deetee]

Originally Posted by aim120

American guy covering the war in Azov nazi stronghold.
Watch the people speak up.
https://Youtu.be/rLZ2ZzoD-W0

Thanks for the video. This is much better than any scholarly edited news item. Raw reports from the ground is often unpleasant but so is truth.
Summary for anyone who can't stand to watch the video:
" Ukrainians (Azov army) bombed buildings inside Mariopol much before Russians took control of the city. They asked citizens to vacate the city and started destroying the buildings. The buildings had damages from road side but not from other sides. Those few who refused to leave had to live in fear and on scarce resources. A lady had sharpnel wounds (may be from Azov firings) and was not given proper medical assistance. A kid also spoke about some old man being hit in head."

The intentional bombing of city buildings may be to paint Russians in bad light and also deny them a usable city when they take it over. These are WWII tactics. But for all that the common people pay the price with sufferings.

Edit:
I checked other videos in this reporters channel. It seems he started reporting from the Russian controlled areas and mostly he is with Russian speaking people. So, while the facts in his videos are not altered, we can't be sure that he may not be hiding what crimes the Russians also are doing. Bottomline, there is always one side of the story missing no matter how raw it is