[vishnurp99]

Originally Posted by skanchan95

If it was not a false flag operation, this has to be the Russian Air Force's "Sleep Tight, PAF is awake" moment!!!

The skill and bravery of the two Ukrainian Hind crews to pull off something like this inside Russia and get away unharmed is quite an achievement!!!!

https://www.Youtube.com/watch?v=5oAFonXVsBA

I have a feeling that this may be a false flag operation for Russia to get out of talks.

Why do I say this?
1. Ukrainian authorities have still not taken credit for it. The western media seems confused on how to cover this raid.
2. The raid is covered in detail in most of the Russian media including details like number of people who were evacuated, the fire fighters who participated etc.

I don't know if there are legal implications for this strike according to international law.

https://tass.com/emergencies/1431029

Excerpt :
The Ukrainian military’s airstrike is not creating "appropriate conditions for further talks" between Moscow and Kiev, Peskov pointed out.

[skanchan95]

Originally Posted by vishnurp99

I have a feeling that this may be a false flag operation for Russia to get out of talks.

Why do I say this?
1. Ukrainian authorities have still not taken credit for it. The western media seems confused on how to cover this raid.
2. The raid is covered in detail in most of the Russian media including details like number of people who were evacuated, the fire fighters who participated etc.

Could be or it may have been a lone wolf operation(about which Ukrainian authorities are not aware of) by a couple of enterprising Ukrainian Mi-24 crews or a squadron commander operating from a secret and makeshift base.

It is wnow well known that the Ukrainians scattered their air assets all over the country and contrary to Russian claims, Ukrainian air power is still in the game. There have been great losses no doubt, but Ukrainian jets and helicopters still fly.

Considering the situation Ukraine is inat the moment, CCC will not be smooth or efficient between Ukrainian High command and local commanders. Just yesterday two Ukrainian Mi-8s took part in an CASEVAC operation in Mariupol...one of the worst affected and besieged Ukrainian cities. One of the Mi-8s was shot down killing all on board and photos of the wreckage with horrific photos of dead Ukrainian servicemen are there in the public domain. The other managed to get away.

These could well be localised, uncoordinated Ukrainian air operations .

[lifeinpune]

Originally Posted by vishnurp99

I have a feeling that this may be a false flag operation for Russia to get out of talks.

Why do I say this?
1. Ukrainian authorities have still not taken credit for it. The western media seems confused on how to cover this raid.
2. The raid is covered in detail in most of the Russian media including details like number of people who were evacuated, the fire fighters who participated etc.

I don't know if there are legal implications for this strike according to international law.

https://tass.com/emergencies/1431029

Excerpt :
The Ukrainian military’s airstrike is not creating "appropriate conditions for further talks" between Moscow and Kiev, Peskov pointed out.

Great observation. This is the exact same thing Alex from the Duran was pointing out earlier today in this video.

https://youtu.be/yaOhHD1p3xQ

There is no word about this from the Ukrainians or western media which is very unusual. It was first acknowledged by the Russians who have never been so quick to admit their losses. But if it were indeed to be true, its quite a feat by the Ukrainians. It wouldn’t really change anything in the Russian plans though. They might take out the remaining Ukrainian aircrafts sooner than later. Their focus right now is to secure Donbas and destroy the 60K+ Ukrainian forces stationed there. They might turn their attention to Odessa after that to complete the capture of the coastline.

[lifeinpune]

Originally Posted by skanchan95

Considering the situation Ukraine is inat the moment, CCC will not be smooth or efficient between Ukrainian High command and local commanders. Just yesterday two Ukrainian Mi-8s took part in an CASEVAC operation in Mariupol...one of the worst affected and besieged Ukrainian cities. One of the Mi-8s was shot down killing all on board and photos of the wreckage with horrific photos of dead Ukrainian servicemen are there in the public domain. The other managed to get away.

These could well be localised, uncoordinated Ukrainian air operations .

Apparently there were more than 4 helicopters involved in this rescue mission. Two are unaccounted for. One was downed with no survivors. One was struck and fell down some kms away. A few survivors from this have been captured. A video of their questioning is available on southfront.org. There are rumors that either these assets were some high value westerners (British and French special forces) or some highly confidential material. The Ukrainians went out of their way to retrieve these assets. If the Russians manage to get their hands on them they might reveal it all.

[aim120]

Originally Posted by skanchan95

. Just yesterday two Ukrainian Mi-8s took part in an CASEVAC operation in Mariupol...one of the worst affected and besieged Ukrainian cities. One of the Mi-8s was shot down killing all on board and photos of the wreckage with horrific photos of dead Ukrainian servicemen are there in the public domain. The other managed to get away.

These could well be localised, uncoordinated Ukrainian air operations .

Actually two survived the crash and are being treated by russia.

The other heli is said to have taken a hit but landed somewhere in the coast. (Unconfirmed).

Today a russian Mi28 was shot down by manpads, I think this is the first known loss of a MI28 in battle.

[SnS_12]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.blo...ject-in-russia

Energy is at the core of everything and having access to cheap and continuous supply is absolutely essential.

On the other hand EU leaders are selling stories about how they will move away from Russian Energy completely but not mentioning how expensive this new energy from US and Qatar will be even if their citizens buy their claim that it can replace Russian supply 100%.



https://www.reuters.com/world/middle...ts-2022-02-22/



https://mishtalk.com/economics/via-c...-energy-demand

[download2live]

Originally Posted by vishnurp99

Excerpt :
The Ukrainian military’s airstrike is not creating "appropriate conditions for further talks" between Moscow and Kiev, Peskov pointed out.

How could he say that with a straight face?

On the other hand I think the costs are becoming clear now and US and Europe will want this to be settled sooner than later. Biden made it personal and wanted to pay back Putin for US debacle in Syria. Now it seems the costs are biting.

Russia did its homework well with China and India.

And what a biased news coverage. I am now stuck with The Guardian to get the least lopsided news coverage.

I think what this war did most was to expose how hollow the so called principles followed by Western companies has been.

[SnS_12]

Originally Posted by download2live

I think what this war did most was to expose how hollow the so called principles followed by Western companies has been.

The West and especially US have zero principles and its all about Self Interest . We know EU is still trading with Russia including buying energy however what about US? Have they stopped buying 100% goods coming from Russia as they go about lecturing and threatening other countries when they buy something and prioritise their interest. Why are minerals like uranium, platinum and palladium not included in the sanctions list just because the west cannot do without them?

The West conveniently showed the world that they will deal with Qatar as Russia is killing children and innocent civilians in Ukraine, but what about Qatar hosting Taliban on their land and women’s rights in Qatar? Suddenly all these are irrelevant issues and don’t bother Western principles?

West thinks that Asian countries are run by leaders who are Educated Illiterate’s like their own and try to bully them with sanction threats and opinions like where would you stand when history is written. The latest being Russia won’t come to help you if China crosses the LAC and so won’t we if you don’t rally behind us against Russia.

Mr. Jaishankar gave it back brilliantly to UK’s Foreign Secretary Liz Truss when questioned about our buying of Russian Oil amid sanctions. You can see his reply if you haven’t already in the below video

https://youtu.be/MiV8W3uoCkw

US just unloads tons of BS when they say things like Inflation is Transitory or we have put Crippling sanctions on Russia for their war on Ukraine. So why is inflation still growing and how is Russia still fighting a war with sanctions and their currency is getting stronger and also buying gold when technically all these should be moving in the opposite direction?

The biggest threat to US$ is not any currency currently but Gold. Countries own more US$ than gold in their foreign reserves as they think its more valuable and easy to trade. Hence, many believe that the price of gold has been artificially manipulated by the West to keep it low. However, Russia has done something that not many are yet talking about that is setting a base price for gold. From 28th March the Russian Central Bank started buying gold at a fixed price of 5,000 rubles for a gram. This is much lower than the current international rate. But gold is traded mostly in New York exchange or London exchange and if they try to lower the value of gold below this price by manipulation then countries will sell their gold to Russia as they will get a better price and even sanctions won’t stop it as selling gold would mean its their last resort to survive. Also, if countries pay for commodities from Russia in gold currently its effectively buying at a discount as the Russians have priced their gold lower than the international market.

[goacom]

Russia really has no chance in this battle.

First some fundamentals: Russia's GDP is 1.5T. The US alone is 20T. Its European allies are another 20T. Then there is Japan, Korea, S.E. Asia, Australia and Canada which come to another 10T. These countries constitute more than half the world GDP. Even China, which is a 15T economy mostly trades with the US and its allies. China will not be the lifeline for Russia and China depends on the west much more than it needs Russia.

The cessation of trade with Russia is decimating its industry. Much of its auto production, aviation and even some of its military production has shut down. Like Venezuela, its energy production will also gradually be impacted as it has relied on western companies for much of the energy extraction technology. Yes, Russia's energy exports will continue and ironically the cessation of trade will actually increase its trade surplus (which partly explains the revival of the Rouble), but this is temporary.

It is inevitable that it is Europe that will cut off Russian oil and gas rather than the other way around, so in the long run it is Russia that will (is) going to get screwed. Europe imports about 170 BCM (billion cubic meters) of Russian gas annually. 60BCM of that is already being replaced by US and Qatari LNG. 10-20BCM can be saved via energy efficiency improvements. 10-20BCM will be replaced with gas imports from Norway and North Africa. This are actions that can be taken now - 60% of Russian gas exports eliminated right of the bat! Europe is also planning upgrades in storage and delivery over the summer. (like portable LNG terminals) which should further increase capacity for the next winter. By mid 2023, it is conceivable, that they should be able to bump it up to 75-80%. By mid 2024 with increasing Qatari (and to a lesser extent US) production, Europe will be able to cut off Russian gas completely. Europe will also be massively increasing investment in solar and wind (Germany will increase its investment by as much as 400%) which will allow it to eventually replace 30bcm of gas with electricity. Russia's problem is that it is one product country (like the gulf Arab countries) and that product can and will be eventually replaced. Yes, the economies of Europe will suffer (but not collapse) for a year or two if Russia were to cut off gas, but it will only serve to accelerate the shift away from Russian energy.

On the battle front, Russia continues to suffer massive losses. The cost of one Javellin missile is around $100K. The cost of a T72 tank is $1M. The cost of a T90 tank is $4M. The economics are simply not in poor Russia's favor. The US is making Russia already weak economy bleed for a very low price. The US will provide just the minimum amount of aid to ensure that this war goes on for a very long time. The longer it goes, the better for America, even if it means very high casualties for the Ukranians. Conversely, this Russian aggression has united NATO and non NATO countries like never before. Germany which until now was spending peanuts on its military has at the stroke of a weekend become the 3rd largest military spender in the world. Finland (not NATO), Canada and Germany have just announced huge purchases of F35 stealth fighters. The US has to be glad that Putin was a fool to do what he did and give the US exactly what it wanted.

Finally, what happens to India? It will be obvious to India's leadership and security establishment that Russia will not longer be able to meet its military contracts with India - even if it wants to. Secondly, Russia will become increasing reliant of China for its industrial needs. Russia will for all practical purposes become a puppet state of China. This means that Russia will be hard pressed to provide political and military support to India against China. India has already been slowly moving towards the west for its military equipment (Rafale, engines for the LCA, P-8 Orions, C-17s etc). With this, India will have no choice but to further cement is relationship with the west and specially the US. The US for its part understands India's predicament and will not push India to a corner on the Russia issue. It is playing the long game with India, because it wants India in its fight against China. India may abstain in votes against Russia, but it is obvious that India's long term trajectory is with the US and its allies.

[Foxbat]

Originally Posted by goacom

Russia really has no chance in this battle.

First some fundamentals: Russia's GDP is 1.5T. The US alone is 20T. Its European allies are another 20T. Then there is Japan, Korea, S.E. Asia, Australia and Canada which come to another 10T. These countries constitute more than half the world GDP.

Afghanistan really had no chance in this battle.

First some fundamentals: Afghanistan's GDP is 20Billion. The US alone is 20T. Its European allies are another 20T. Then there is Japan, Korea, S.E. Asia, Australia and Canada which come to another 10T. These countries constitute more than half the world GDP.

The end of the war after 20 years:



You can also replace Afghanistan with Korea, Vietnam, Cuba, Venezuela....

[joslicx]

Originally Posted by Foxbat

Afghanistan really had no chance in this battle.

First some fundamentals: Afghanistan's GDP is 20Billion. The US alone is 20T. Its European allies are another 20T. Then there is Japan, Korea, S.E. Asia, Australia and Canada which come to another 10T. These countries constitute more than half the world GDP.

The end of the war after 20 years:

Attachment 2291234

You can also replace Afghanistan with Korea, Vietnam, Cuba, Venezuela....

I think the big difference is US is not directly fighting this war. In fact, by all accounts they stroked this war and are going to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of this unnecessary war. Countries are lining up to buy their armaments and oil and gas. They would be laughing their way to the bank (in short to medium run). Although in the long run, perhaps their hegemony would be over in the coming decades. But, as a famous economist once said, long run we are all dead anyway. People are more concerned with short run mostly.

[deetee]

Originally Posted by goacom

Russia really has no chance in this battle.

First some fundamentals: Russia's GDP is 1.5T. The US alone is 20T. ...

There in the second line itself lies the difference. If you look beyond the obvious, you can see that Russia has not so much to loose if trade freezes or its currency looses value. Where as if the same thing to happen to US, the very fundamentals you spoke about will be shaken to core.

A couple of posts ago, in a video shared by a member, an old Ukrainian woman says that they have been living in cold , cooking on the streets and sleeping in adverse conditions; and she asks if any typical European can endure similar conditions. There in lies the difference. Russia / Ukraine / India - typically any of the eastern countries which are still not so rich can take a beating and survive even if economy goes for a toss. The same can't be said for US/UK/Rich EU countries. They can't afford another war coming to their doors.

So, if the war prolongs, it is the west that is going to shiver not the east.

And somewhere in middle you state this:

Originally Posted by goacom

The longer it goes, the better for America, even if it means very high casualties for the Ukranians.

Good to see that you understood it is the US and Ukraine leadership responsible for these casualties .

[Sran]

This war is turning out to be a dud. What exactly is Russia doing and what is it's objective now? Either bomb the shit out and make Ukraine surrender or just bow out making Ukraine another Afghanistan.

I can understand that its been only 40 days and with NATO support, Ukraine can stretch it out more but Russia doesn't seem to be proactive now. There is hardly any decent offense by Russia. Even the two breakaway regions haven't been liberated fully.

[bhppower]

Originally Posted by Sran

This war is turning out to be a dud. What exactly is Russia doing and what is it's objective now? Either bomb the shit out and make Ukraine surrender or just bow out making Ukraine another Afghanistan.

I can understand that its been only 40 days and with NATO support, Ukraine can stretch it out more but Russia doesn't seem to be proactive now. There is hardly any decent offense by Russia. Even the two breakaway regions haven't been liberated fully.

Agree. Russia seems to making mockery of themselves.

1. 40-mile convoy to attack Kiev. Nothing really happened and now Russians are retreating from occupied villages near Kiev resulting in losses.
2. Chernobyl - First captured then they bombed and now retreating. Heard people are suffering from radiation.
3. Not even able to completely control two break away regions.
4. Odessa not yet captured. This would cut off Ukraine from sea.
5. All there superior weapons, missiles, planes seems to be just talk and not showing much of a result.
6. Ukraine attacked inside Russia with helicopters. This was slap on Russia's face.

Looks like case of misjudgment, unmaintained army struggling or we are too naive to understand the tactics

[Ragavsr]

Originally Posted by goacom

It is inevitable that it is Europe that will cut off Russian oil and gas rather than the other . Yes, the economies of Europe will suffer (but not collapse) for a year or two if Russia were to cut off gas, but it will only serve to accelerate the shift away from Russian energy.

If it's Europe that will finally cut off Russian gas, then it would be in Russia's best interests to reign choas and cut off supply immediately or within the year if they need funds to sustain the war which they do need.

Putin is smart. If you try to take him down, he will take down others with him too.