[SnS_12]

Originally Posted by download2live

This is actually a reason for which US happily/quickly goes to war for. Countries who want to make oil deals in other currencies.

One reason why Iraq was invaded was that it started taking payments in Euro.

And whom will they attack and how will they justify it when they refused to get involved in Ukraine directly? Can they now attack Russia, China? What about Saudi you may ask and that too cannot happen because Russia will come to their rescue.

This move has Russia written all over it. With so many sanctions it is still fighting a war, which many said it will not be able to sustain financially for more than 10 days and will run out of money. The US cannot afford to fight a war finically without printing more money , which leads to more inflation and especially when the world is planning to dumping their currency.

Russia has planned this to the dot as the Fed was scheduled to meet on the 15-16 to discuss ways to tackle inflation. And now China deciding to counter the dominance of Petrodollar will mean the value of US$ goes down and further add to inflation. These are reverse sanctions by Russia on US and unlike divide and rule strategy they are uniting countries who have been ill treated by US over the years and who don’t trust US at all.

Joe Biden on the other hand can only blame Putin for US inflation but did he ever call out China for the Coronavirus? The US can only attack weaker countries for the powerful ones it relied on its financial weapon to stop them until now. They might sanction China but can the world including them take another financial supply chain shock especially when China is the world’s factory for all goods possible?

India too will be a big part of this change as the centre has a government with a strong mandate, which the US tried to interfere with back in 2014, when they declined a US visa to a certain someone and when he came to power with a strong mandate was invited with open arms. Now India, China are showing the world that the West is not as big and powerful they show to be and Asia is 60% of the population and we can be the producers and consumers and don’t need to be dependent on the West.

The Japanese PM is coming to India on Saturday, which will be followed by the Chinese foreign minister who is planning a visit later this month. What do you think the discussion during this visit is going to be based around...

Russia is systematically isolating US in world politics and which country will come to the rescue of US and increase their own problems by doing that?

When the benefit of staying away from US during high inflation are like this..

[catchjyoti]

Originally Posted by SnS_12

When the benefit of staying away from US during high inflation are like this..

Just a small but significant point regarding India buying 3.5 million barrels of Russian oil. India is buying this from a Swiss trading firm Vitol and not from Russia directly. This firm is not in sanctioned list. As such India is not flouting any sanctions.

[SnS_12]

Originally Posted by catchjyoti

Just a small but significant point regarding India buying 3.5 million barrels of Russian oil. India is buying this from a Swiss trading firm Vitol and not from Russia directly. This firm is not in sanctioned list. As such India is not flouting any sanctions.

That's another interesting aspect to ponder upon as Switzerland who have been long known for their neutral stand have joined EU in sanctioning Russia when 80% of Russia’s commodity trading is done through Switzerland.

[NH08]

After gliding through more than 5 dozen pages on Russia vs Ukraine issue, what have I learned:

1. The only lesson we learn from the history is that nobody learns from history.

2. If you want to determine whether an action is justified or not, look at question - who is doing it? rather than considering action itself. USA and Europe always follow this theory.

3. President Bush once famously said - 'If you are not with us, then you are against us.' Following the same lines, some are giving an impression in this forum that if you are criticizing USA/Europe/NATO/Ukraine/Zelensky, then you are supporting Putin's action. These few people are shocked/saddened/surprised to see the 'support' for Putin. But has really anyone supported Putin's actions? Yes, everyone. Follow the Bush theory.

4. If you are 50 year old, 6.2 tall then always challenge for one-to-one combat somebody who is 19 years older than you and 7 inches shorter. Definitely so when at stake is something that you do not own and chances of that mortal combat happening is 'Zero'.

You will be immortalized.

It is a good gesture of helping Zelensky by Mr. Musk. By the way, Mr. Musk, you also tried to help one Mr. Unsworth, who was engaged in Thai cave rescue, by proposing to send him a 'submarine'. Unsworth 'praised' your proposal and rest is very entertaining history.

Elon Musk and his 'submarine'

5. Europe, inspite of its 'ban this - sanction that' theory, has not stopped its gas supply coming from Russia. Nice. And Russia, has not stopped pounding Ukraine.

Disclaimer: For the removal of any doubt, I declare that I do not support Putin's actions in Ukraine.

[saikarthik]

Russia has now sanctioned the western leaders including presidents of the USA, Canada and few hundred other individuals. There was a statement from WH press secretary saying these sanctions will have no impact on them as they don't have assets/investments in Russia. What was Russia's goal with these sanctions?

But, will this impact politically and the dialogue that's going between the west and Russia?

[dragracer567]

Originally Posted by CarNerd

More than Ukraine, This war is about US and its presence near Russia.

NATO expansion is made out to more than it actually is. We have to remember that Russia also invaded Georgia back in 2008 and sent troops in to Belarus and Kazakhstan to crush local popular rebellions. This war is about Russia's inherent insecurity where post 1991, they lost what was according to them part of their empire though these have historically been independent territories with their own cultures, languages etc. Perhaps, even more than Russia's insecurity, this is about Putin's insecurity. He was a KGB agent, part of great Soviet apparatus that was once a global superpower, so it hurts him to see that Russia with its weak economy is not able to exert influence into its former territories as Western Europe & the US can or does. It also doesn't help that the ex-Warsaw pact and the ex-Soviet republics loath the economic stagnation and oppression brought about by the Soviet system and will do anything to stay away from the Russian sphere of influence even if it means joining NATO. Why does it make sense to deny them that right just because Russia or rather Putin is insecure? Recently, the Venezuelans hosted Russian troops, but did we see the Americans invade Venezuela? Such invasions made sense in the 20th century, not in the 21st.

Just look at this video, it almost feels like Putin is a Tsar conducting a royal court. And likely he thinks the same too, he has been ruling for 2 decades now with almost absolute power, so its not too much to think he has gotten disillusioned over time and disconnected from ready. Moreover, none of his advisors would have the guts to correct him - look how he dressed down the head of intelligence. There's no two ways to say it, he's the ruin of Russia!

Forget democracies, just compare this with the images from China where Xi sits amongst the Politburo. He atleast pretends that there is someone to rein him in.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8B0mWzB4GOQ

Originally Posted by SnS_12

The Japanese PM is coming to India on Saturday, which will be followed by the Chinese foreign minister who is planning a visit later this month. What do you think the discussion during this visit is going to be based around...

Russia is systematically isolating US in world politics and which country will come to the rescue of US and increase their own problems by doing that?

I'm sorry but bilateral meets by two countries do NOT mean that another country is getting isolated. Biden planning to visit Europe, does this mean that the US is isolating India? Offcourse not. You are reading too much into what is considered common diplomatic activity during a crisis.

Looks like Ukraine has been on the offensive as well. Satellite images show that Ukraine has Kherson airfield which Russia is using as a Forward operating base and they managed to destroy multiple aircraft and helicopters. It's unknown what weapons they used but likely to be those Turkish drones that has proven deadly. Pointers for India since Pakistan operates those same drones.

[SnS_12]

Originally Posted by dragracer567

You are reading too much into what is considered common diplomatic activity during a crisis.

Could be and could be not. All of us are just sharing a view point that each one of us has and how we read the signs /happenings and what we make out of it. The two of us were discussing just yesterday that Russia's new friends in the Middle East won't sell Oil in any other currency than the US$, well guess what Saudi and China decided otherwise. This may be a small news when it comes to denting petrodollar dominance but a significant move nonetheless in what direction these countries are heading with their relation with the US.

On the Japanese PM visiting India I would like to add this, during the QUAD meeting recently Australia, Japan and US wanted to discuss Ukraine and India said no as that is not the purpose or aim of creating the QUAD and that might be one of the things which will be impressed further on the Japanese PM in view of the changing global dynamics. If Asia turns into a economic zone, will the West be able to manage without receiving goods and services from this part of the world and vice versa. When the biggest exporter and importer of oil hint at Petroyuan that means the Yuan will increase in value and the world will have to spend more to buy from China till they find an alternate cheaper source.

[saikarthik]

We can discuss here about who is isolating whom, but there is definitely some smoke around this. UAE, Saudi are becoming safe havens for sanctioned Russian billionaires, they aren't receiving calls from US on the topic of oil price stabilization. Just-in, UK's PM is in the gulf trying to persuade these nations to control the oil prices.

Same time the Chinese minister is planning a visit to India after 2 long years, and right after Japanese PM's visit. We don't know what but definitely, some geopolitical strategy is being shaken up!

P.S: If it makes any real difference, Russia quits Council of Europe (not EU).

[dragracer567]

Originally Posted by SnS_12

The two of us were discussing just yesterday that Russia's new friends in the Middle East won't sell Oil in any other currency than the US$, well guess what Saudi and China decided otherwise. This may be a small news when it comes to denting petrodollar dominance but a significant move nonetheless in what direction these countries are heading with their relation with the US.

Indeed, and it seems that the deal has been in the making since 2015 IIRC but been sped up since 2022. We shall wait and see what comes out of this. The Yuan arrangement is only for oil purchased by China while other countries will stick to the US$, let's see what comes out of these talks. The only other big customers of Saudi oil are India and Japan but neither would agree to Yuan denominated oil purchases, unless they can convince the Saudis to sell oil in Rupees or Yen. The problem with the Yuan is that its not a freely trading currency like the US$, Euros or Rupees (explained in detail in the video below), so it would be really hard for other countries to use it as a reserve currency (though some do) or for trade . If any currency would replace the US$, my bet would be on the Euro which is the only currency that is freely traded, used in a large enough market and trusted globally.

Another point to keep in mind is that the currencies of all the Gulf countries (except Kuwait which is a soft peg) are permanently pegged to the US$ - Saudi Riyal at 3.75 and UAE Dirhams at 3.67, so it would be really difficult for them to abandon the stability that the US$ gives them (and great for the Indian expats since the INR keeps sliding against the US$ and concurrently to the respective local currencies).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezY33u8V8V8

[condor]

After India-Russia oil sale in Rupees, Now Saudi & China are in talks for payment in Yuan.

If this continues beyond the Ukraine conflict, and likely should, the dollar will lose it's value.

[nandadevieast]

Qualifier:
I am against all war and do not support Russia’s war on Ukraine
The post is not about common people living in any country but the governments and politicians



I am pained by so much loss of life and devastation in this war. This is another war for resources and hegemony by a (terribly) old generation brought up in Richard Nicon’s (white) house and Joseph Stalin’s Kremlin.

1.
Its obvious and easy and justified to execute the man who actually fired the bullet. But we should spend time fixing west’s responsibility in this war. They can’t get away being called a hero.

2.
There’s blood on the hands of politicians from all sides. They couldn’t stop the war because they couldn’t afford to give up their (unfair) strategic interests.

3.
India did well to stay neutral, despite moral, political and other (bullying) pressures from western world. Its easy to get branded pro-war if you don’t say what’s politically correct but as others pointed out, things are never black and white.

4.
Perpetuation of western hegemony has been an ongoing theme since hundreds of years. US and UK (Now a poor shadow and yes-man of America) are self-appointed caretakers of the world. US has military bases everywhere, why?

5.
NATO should have been dissolved after the end of cold war. If peace was the goal then why did they expand NATO towards east? Goal was and has been, hegemony.

6.
If you control people and ask them to do things against their wish, ghosts get created. Putin is the ghost of Soviet disintegration. US has created many such ghosts, around the world. Taliban? ISIS, who created them? Al Qaida? Someone’s terrorist is someone else’s hero.

7.
How many of us think youngesters will forgive these 85 and 70 year old presidents and their rookies? How many years have we gone back. Countries will arm up again. Nuclear disarmament will go for a toss. Everyone will want to be self-dependent thus producing and manufacturing everything they can. Climate concerns will go for a toss as planet will be exploited for energy and self-reliance, with a vengeance.

8.
Its not just the far right propaganda. Liberal publications are set in their thinking. Its a cacophony of similar messaging. They do not understand ‘others’.

9.
This war could have been avoided (or not?) by agreeing to contract NATO, a vestigial organisation from cold war, if they really wanted to. Who was NATO defending from after USSR fell? If you take this opportunity to increase your area of influence, someone can get up and challenge you.

10.
They should dissolve UN and build a new organisation. Why isn’t India part of UNSC? Brazil? What is this organisation born out of 2nd world war and continues to reflect 1945 world order and mentality? What are these rich country clubs like G5/G7 doing? Who cares for what UN or other such organisations say anyway, all of them serve interests of one or the other.

West is not going to give up their control ever.

11.
West, mostly US has waged so many wars. Did they want to save the world? Or was it for the resources and control? Who sanctioned them? I wonder if politicians look at things like we do. We come from the heart. We have moral dilemmas while taking sides in a war. We are common people. These dudes are different.

12.
While media throws up images of innocent people dying, for the consumption of other innocent people, the game remains about hegemony, control and energy. Nobody is a saint here.

13.
Colonies? Slavery? Erasing local cultures? Emissions? Nuclear weapons? Religious extremities? Some of the reasons they are now ‘Developed world’. West have been there done it all. Lets count how many countries India, Pakistan, Brazil, China or even Russia invaded in the past? What they call world wars were West Wars actually. They have fought with each other and they involve everyone else.

14.
Issuing warnings assumes someone will listen to you. Countries are not listening to you now. Now you have to shout yourself hoarse, sing and dance. Countries may reluctantly agree or forced to agree but not forever.

West has been exposed long back. Psychological shift has happened. Bullying and making everyone else dance to your tune will continue till they are so called super powers (sic!)

During Covid these ‘civilised’ countries have hoarded shit-load of vaccines, when poor countries didn’t have enough. Perhaps crisis brings out the worst in them. Racism?

Bottomline: Hegemony under the pretense of democratic values

15.
A better way to solve issues is to really have that intent in the first place, and mean it. Sending your forces thousands of miles away can’t be about anything other than politics. Selling and dumping your weapons at strategically important places won’t make you peace loving and caring brother, it makes you an arm dealer, like many others.

16.
Now go sanitise Russia. But guess what? The problem isn’t solved ! Because you are the other side of problem. Maybe you are the problem.

17.
Do not forget that you are equally responsible for every single innocent life lost in this war. You have vested interests of your own. You are not a hero.

As long as you want to control the world, ghosts will keep coming out of the graves you dig for others.

Of course, you really do not care about people getting killed, do you? Then why do you discriminate between people on the basis of race, locality and other things. Are some lives more precious than others? Is one dead better than the other dead?

[Samurai]

Clare Daly (EU MP) speaking in the European Parliament

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CEtKNqjlUzk

[vishnurp99]

There are indications about Russia defaulting on their dollar debts amounting to billions of dollars. I am assuming that a lot of this debt is held by western ( USA, German) institutions and maybe large Chinese banks. How will this impact our capital markets - in India and across the globe? Any views/thoughts on this would be good to know.

[SnS_12]

Originally Posted by vishnurp99

There are indications about Russia defaulting on their dollar debts amounting to billions of dollars. I am assuming that a lot of this debt is held by western ( USA, German) institutions and maybe large Chinese banks. How will this impact our capital markets - in India and across the globe? Any views/thoughts on this would be good to know.

There are lot of Bond coupon/principal amount payments which are coming up and unlike China's Real Estate Bond defaults, the Russian's are not able to pay not due to lack of money but due to the sanctions. Also, it seems a lot of bonds have a condition that the amount needs to be paid in the currency the bond is issued at and even if Russia pays in its local currency it will be considered a default.

So, we need to see how this progress as sanctions are affecting the countries dealing with Russia more than Russia by the look of it..

[SnS_12]

The Americans are themselves wondering why Joe Biden who killed the domestic Oil market is now going around and begging countries which hate America to produce more Oil?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WfrgnGZRIU

Another interesting video, which talks about:

Fedcoin and how it will help control the American citizens

Carbon Credit/Green Energy and how this could be used to tax people in the future

And finally, why the world might see much higher gold prices.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jzr82GhC5xo